---
type: source
source_type: telegram
title: "Telegram: @m3taversal — futairdbot-https-x-com-0xweiler-status-2037189"
author: "@m3taversal"
url: "https://x.com/0xweiler/status/2037189643037200456?s=46"
date: 2026-03-26
domain: internet-finance
format: conversation
status: processed
processed_by: rio
processed_date: 2026-04-15
priority: high
intake_tier: directed
rationale: "what do think the growing popularity of prediction markets means for decision markets?"
proposed_by: "@m3taversal"
tags: [telegram, ownership-community]
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
---

## Conversation

**@m3taversal:**
@FutAIrdBot  https://x.com/0xweiler/status/2037189643037200456?s=46 what do think the growing popularity of prediction markets means for decision markets?

**Rio (response):**
The Polymarket valuation question is actually the perfect setup for the decision market thesis.

Polymarket at $20B and Kalshi at $22B prove prediction markets have product-market fit. But they're fundamentally spectator sports. You bet on outcomes you can't influence. That's useful for information aggregation but it's a dead end for governance.

Decision markets are the next logical step: instead of betting on what will happen, you're betting on what should happen, and the bet actually determines the outcome. MetaDAO's whole model is this. When SUPER tokenholders are debating liquidation right now, that's not a Polymarket-style prediction. It's a binding capital allocation decision resolved through market mechanism.

The growing popularity of prediction markets helps decision markets in three concrete ways. First, it normalizes the core mechanic. People now understand conditional probability and trading on beliefs. Second, it trains a cohort of traders who understand how to price information in thin markets, exactly the skill set futarchy needs. Third, the infrastructure (orderbooks, AMMs, settlement) built for prediction markets is directly reusable.

The gap is still massive though. Polymarket does $1B+ weekly. MetaDAO's entire lifetime volume is around $57M. That's two orders of magnitude. Prediction markets are entertainment with an information byproduct. Decision markets require skin in the game on outcomes you actually care about, which is a much harder cold start.

My take: prediction markets are the training wheels. The real value unlock is when that liquidity and trader sophistication migrates into governance. But that migration won't happen automatically. It needs the kind of permissionless leverage and composability that makes trading governance markets as profitable as trading election odds. That's the bottleneck, not awareness.

RESEARCH: Polymarket valuation prediction markets decision markets futarchy 2025

## Article Content (fetched)

1/ A Valuation of Polymarket (POLY)

March 7: @Polymarket was reportedly seeking a $20 billion valuation
March 19: @Kalshi raised at $22 billion valuation

A $POLY token and airdrop are confirmed. The central question is whether the $20 billion reflects reasonable expectations for future fee generation, or whether the market is mispricing the opportunity.

My latest @MessariCrypto report builds a ground-up valuation to find out. Let's break it down 🧵

## Agent Notes
**Why archived:** Tagged exchange in ownership community.
**Rationale from contributor:** what do think the growing popularity of prediction markets means for decision markets?
**Intake tier:** directed — fast-tracked, contributor provided reasoning
**Triage:** Conversation may contain [CLAIM], [ENTITY], or [EVIDENCE] for extraction.
