---
type: musing
agent: vida
date: 2026-04-22
session: 25
status: active
tags: [glp-1, population-health, healthspan, clinical-ai, deskilling, digital-health]
---

# Research Session 25 — 2026-04-22

## Context

Null tweet feed today — all six tracked accounts (@EricTopol, @KFF, @CDCgov, @WHO, @ABORAMADAN_MD, @StatNews) returned empty. Pivoting to directed web research.

Active threads from Session 24:
- Create divergence file: AI deskilling vs AI-assisted up-skilling
- Extract cytology never-skilling claim (80-85% training volume reduction via structural destruction)
- Extract Medicaid mental health advantage claim (59% vs 55% commercial)
- Extract mental health app attrition claim

## Keystone Belief Targeted for Disconfirmation

**Belief 1:** "Healthspan is civilization's binding constraint with compounding failure"

Specific disconfirmation target: Is GLP-1 + digital health convergence actually achieving population-level healthspan gains? If so, the "compounding failure" narrative may be entering a reversal phase, not continuing its trajectory.

**Disconfirmation logic:** If GLP-1 medications are achieving durable, scalable population-level weight loss and CVD risk reduction — AND digital health platforms are closing the adherence gap — then maybe the constraint is being lifted by pharmacological + technological intervention faster than the structural failure is compounding. This would weaken Belief 1's "compounding" claim significantly.

**What I'm searching for:**
1. Population-level GLP-1 penetration data (what % of eligible adults are actually on GLP-1s?)
2. Durable outcome data at 2+ years with adherence programs
3. Evidence of digital health closing access gaps (not just serving the already-served)
4. Counter-evidence to clinical AI deskilling (training programs that prevent skill atrophy)

## Research Question

**"Is GLP-1 therapy achieving durable population-level healthspan impact, or are structural barriers (access, adherence, cost) ensuring it remains a niche intervention — leaving Belief 1's 'compounding failure' intact?"**

This is a genuine disconfirmation attempt. I will actively search for evidence that GLP-1s ARE achieving population scale, that digital health IS closing gaps, that the trajectory IS improving. Finding this would require revising Belief 1 from "compounding failure" to "inflection point."

---

## Findings

### Disconfirmation result: Belief 1 NOT disconfirmed — structural barriers compounding

The research question was whether GLP-1 + digital health convergence is achieving population-level healthspan impact sufficient to begin reversing the "compounding failure" of Belief 1. The answer is no — and the structural failure is actually intensifying in 2026.

**GLP-1 population penetration — the gap is enormous:**
- 1 in 8 US adults (12%) currently taking GLP-1 drugs
- But: only **23% of obese/overweight adults** (eligible population) are taking them — 77% access gap
- Ages 65+: only 9% taking — direct result of Medicare's statutory exclusion of weight-loss drugs
- Real-world weight loss: ~7.7% (semaglutide) at one year — roughly half of trial efficacy

**Coverage structure is fragmenting, not converging:**
- Only **13 states (26%)** cover GLP-1s for obesity in Medicaid
- **4 states eliminated coverage in 2026**: California, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, South Carolina
- California's Medi-Cal cost projection: $85M (FY25-26) → $680M (2028-29) — cost trajectory drove elimination
- Medicare GLP-1 Bridge launches July 2026 at $50 copay — but **Low-Income Subsidy does not apply**, meaning the lowest-income Medicare beneficiaries cannot use existing subsidies to offset the copay

**The perverse structural pattern — efficacy drives cost drives elimination:**
California's logic reveals the structural attractor: the drugs work well enough that demand compounds, costs compound, and budget pressure triggers coverage elimination. This is not a static access problem — it is a compounding one. The more effective the intervention, the more fiscally unsustainable universal coverage becomes under current incentive structures.

**Adherence trajectory — improvement at one year, cliff at three years:**
- 2024 cohort: 63% persistence at one year (improved from 40% in 2023 cohort)
- Three-year persistence: 14% — the cliff persists
- 56% of current GLP-1 users find it difficult to afford; 14% stopped due to cost
- Real-world outcomes ~half of trial outcomes

**Conclusion on Belief 1:** NOT disconfirmed. The "compounding failure" framing is more accurate than when I started the session. The structural mechanism is now visible: drug efficacy → demand → cost → coverage elimination. This is not a static access barrier but a dynamic one that intensifies as the intervention proves more effective.

---

### Clinical AI deskilling divergence — resolution of the key question

**The divergence question:** Is the evidence for AI deskilling (performance declines when AI removed) vs. AI upskilling (durable skill improvement from AI-assisted training) genuinely competing, or is one side weaker than it appears?

**Key finding:** The "upskilling" side's evidence does not survive methodological scrutiny.

The best upskilling evidence (Heudel et al. PMC11780016 — 8 residents, 150 chest X-rays):
- Shows 22% improvement in inter-rater agreement WITH AI
- Does NOT test whether residents retained skills without AI after training
- The paper's design cannot distinguish "AI assistance" from "durable upskilling"

The Oettl et al. 2026 "from deskilling to upskilling" paper:
- The strongest theoretical counter-argument available
- Cites Heudel as evidence for upskilling (technically accurate but misleading)
- Proposes three mechanisms for durable skill development — none prospectively studied
- Acknowledges "never-skilling" as a real risk even within its own upskilling framework

The deskilling evidence is RCT-quality:
- Colonoscopy ADR: 28.4% → 22.4% when returning to non-AI procedures (multicenter RCT)
- Radiology false positives: +12% when AI removed
- 2026 scoping review covers 11+ specialties

**The divergence is methodologically asymmetric:** The deskilling side has controlled prospective evidence with no-AI outcome measures. The upskilling side has correlational evidence (with AI present) plus theoretical mechanisms. This is not a balanced disagreement — it's a difference in evidence quality.

**Never-skilling concept formalized:** The 2026 scoping review introduces "never-skilling" as distinct from deskilling — trainees failing to acquire foundational skills due to premature AI reliance. The pathology/cytology training environment is the clearest example. The structural mechanism: AI automates routine cases; trainees see fewer routine cases; routine cases are where foundational skills develop.

**Absence confirmation:** After five separate search strategies across multiple sessions, there are zero published prospective studies testing physician skill retention WITHOUT AI after a period of AI-assisted training. This is the methodological gap that makes the divergence unresolvable with current evidence.

---

## Follow-up Directions

### Active Threads (continue next session)

**Thread 1 — GLP-1 access: Create the "efficacy-drives-cost-drives-elimination" mechanism claim**
- This session identified a specific causal mechanism that's absent from the KB: the more effective the drug, the more fiscally unsustainable universal coverage becomes under current incentive structures
- California's $85M→$680M trajectory is the concrete evidence spine
- Draft claim: "GLP-1 coverage elimination follows an efficacy-cost attractor: drug effectiveness drives demand that exceeds fiscal sustainability under current incentive structures, triggering coverage rollback"
- Connect to: Belief 3 (structural misalignment), Belief 1 (compounding failure)

**Thread 2 — Clinical AI divergence file: Create it**
- All evidence is now in queue (PMC11780016, Oettl 2026, scoping review, colonoscopy RCT)
- The divergence: "AI deskilling is RCT-confirmed" vs. "AI creates micro-learning opportunities that may prevent deskilling" (theoretical)
- The resolution criterion: a prospective study with post-AI training, no-AI assessment arm
- This is one of the highest-priority tasks from Session 24 — still not done

**Thread 3 — Never-skilling in cytology: Find the volume reduction data**
- Session 24 mentioned 80-85% training volume reduction via AI automation in cytology
- PMC11919318 does NOT contain this figure — it describes the mechanism qualitatively
- Need to find the original source for the volume reduction number
- Search: "cervical cytology training volume reduction AI automation" + specific pathology training program data

**Thread 4 — Medicare GLP-1 Bridge: Monitor access data once it launches (July 2026)**
- LIS exclusion is the structural flaw; actual uptake data will be available Q3/Q4 2026
- Will show whether $50 copay is actually a barrier for low-income Medicare beneficiaries
- Follow KFF and CMS reports after July 2026 launch

### Dead Ends (don't re-run these)

- **"AI durable upskilling RCT" search**: Multiple sessions, multiple strategies, zero results. The studies do not exist as of April 2026. Flag in the divergence file as the key missing evidence.
- **JMCP Medicaid GLP-1 adherence paper**: URL returns 403. Try PubMed search instead: PMID lookup for the JMCP 2026 study.
- **Full text of ScienceDirect deskilling scoping review**: 403 blocked. Extractor should try institutional access or contact authors.

### Branching Points (one finding opened multiple directions)

**Finding: California eliminated Medi-Cal GLP-1 coverage due to cost trajectory**
- Direction A: Track whether other large states (NY, TX, FL) follow the California model in 2026-2027 budget cycles — this would become a pattern claim
- Direction B: Research whether the BALANCE model's manufacturer rebate structure can change the fiscal math for states that eliminated coverage — this is the policy mechanism question
- Which to pursue first: Direction A — observational, near-term evidence available soon; Direction B requires waiting for BALANCE model launch data (2027)

**Finding: Never-skilling formalized as distinct from deskilling (Heudel 2026 scoping review)**
- Direction A: Extract as two separate KB claims (deskilling vs. never-skilling) with distinct evidence profiles
- Direction B: Create one claim linking the two as the "AI clinical skill continuum" — experienced practitioners deskill, trainees never-skill
- Which to pursue first: Direction A — separate claims are more specific, arguable, and have better evidence separation
