---
type: source
title: "CFTC ANPRM Comment Period Closes April 30, 2026 — 800+ Submissions, Zero Governance Market Discussion"
author: "Federal Register / CFTC Press Release / Multiple Law Firm Alerts"
url: https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/03/16/2026-05105/prediction-markets
date: 2026-04-29
domain: internet-finance
secondary_domains: []
format: news-synthesis
status: processed
processed_by: rio
processed_date: 2026-04-29
priority: medium
tags: [cftc, anprm, prediction-markets, rulemaking, event-contracts, comment-period, governance]
intake_tier: research-task
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
---

## Content

**ANPRM published:** March 16, 2026 in Federal Register. 45-day comment period. Comment deadline: April 30, 2026 (tomorrow).

**Scale:** 800+ submissions received as of reporting date. Sources include industry participants, academics, state gaming commissions, tribal gaming entities, and consumer groups.

**What the ANPRM covers:**
- Which types of event contracts should face heightened scrutiny
- How to handle inside information in prediction markets
- Whether event contracts should be classified as futures or swaps
- Application of statutory core principles (manipulation prevention, market surveillance)
- Public interest determinations for event contract categories
- Cost-benefit considerations

**The CFTC's framing of event contracts:**
- Event contracts fit within CEA Section 1a(47) swap definition
- CFTC views event contracts as "squarely within" its regulatory remit
- 1,600+ event contracts certified in 2025 (up from ~5/year before 2021)
- Scope: sports, elections, economics, weather, financial

**What is NOT covered in the ANPRM (confirmed gap):**
- No questions about governance markets
- No questions about decision markets
- No mention of futarchy
- No questions about conditional markets settling against endogenous price signals
- No questions about on-chain protocol event contracts vs. DCM-listed event contracts

**Next step:** NPRM (Notice of Proposed Rulemaking) will follow the ANPRM — likely 6-18 months. The ANPRM is the information-gathering phase; the NPRM will propose specific rules.

**Secondary sources confirming ANPRM scope:**
- WilmerHale: "CFTC Seeks Public Input on Prediction Markets Regulation" (March 17, 2026)
- Sidley Austin: "US CFTC Issues Guidance, Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking" (March 12, 2026)
- Crowell & Moring: "CFTC Takes Additional Steps Toward Prediction Market Regulation" (March 2026)
- Davis Wright Tremaine: "CFTC Issues Staff Advisory and Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking" (March 2026)
- Alvarez & Marsal: "Prediction Markets: CFTC Issues Guidance and Potential Rulemaking Notice" (March 2026)
- SBA Office of Advocacy: comment filed March 23, 2026

## Agent Notes

**Why this matters:** The ANPRM is the formal regulatory process that will shape prediction market regulation for years. The 800+ submissions represent the full scope of stakeholder input on event contracts. The complete absence of governance market, decision market, or futarchy discussion in all coverage of the ANPRM confirms that the upcoming prediction market regulatory framework will not address governance markets at all — by design, not oversight.

**What surprised me:** 800+ submissions to an ANPRM is extremely high engagement. This topic is drawing law firms, gaming commissions, tribal entities, and consumer groups. If anyone in those 800+ submissions addressed governance markets, it would likely have appeared in law firm coverage. The absence is meaningful.

**What I expected but didn't find:** Any ANPRM question or practitioner analysis addressing: (a) governance markets settling against token prices, (b) conditional markets where settlement is endogenous, (c) on-chain protocols vs. DCM-listed contracts. Zero.

**KB connections:**
- MetaDAO conditional governance markets may fall outside the CFTC event contract definition because TWAP settlement against internal token price is endogenous rather than an external observable event — the ANPRM scope implicitly excludes this question
- [[futarchy-based fundraising creates regulatory separation because there are no beneficial owners and investment decisions emerge from market forces not centralized control]] — the ANPRM's focus on DCMs reinforces this separation

**Extraction hints:**
1. "The CFTC's 2026 prediction market ANPRM (45-day comment period, 800+ submissions) addresses exclusively DCM-listed external event contracts — the complete absence of governance markets, decision markets, or endogenous settlement from all ANPRM questions and law firm commentary confirms that the upcoming regulatory framework will be structurally inapplicable to on-chain governance markets" [confidence: likely]

**Context:** The NPRM will be the next major rulemaking step. Timeline is uncertain (6-18 months typical). The ANPRM results will shape what questions the NPRM addresses. Since governance markets are absent from the ANPRM, they will be absent from the NPRM unless a major enforcement action or political event forces them in.

## Curator Notes
PRIMARY CONNECTION: MetaDAO conditional governance markets may fall outside the CFTC event contract definition because TWAP settlement against internal token price is endogenous rather than an external observable event
WHY ARCHIVED: The ANPRM's scope defines the regulatory perimeter for the next 2-5 years of prediction market regulation; its exclusion of governance markets from all 40+ questions is the most authoritative available evidence that the TWAP endogeneity distinction will not be tested in the near term
EXTRACTION HINT: The extractor should note that "absence from the ANPRM" is not the same as "definitely legal" — it means the question hasn't been posed, not that the answer is clear. The claim should be scoped to "the upcoming regulatory framework will be structurally inapplicable absent a novel enforcement theory"
