---
type: claim
domain: internet-finance
secondary_domains: [grand-strategy]
description: "Polymarket (crypto, CFTC-via-acquisition) and Kalshi (traditional finance, native CFTC approval) are converging on $20B valuations as the two-player market structure for US prediction markets"
confidence: experimental
source: "Multiple sources (PYMNTS, CoinDesk, Crowdfund Insider, TheBulldog.law), January 2026"
created: 2026-03-11
---

# Polymarket-Kalshi duopoly emerging as dominant US prediction market structure with complementary regulatory models

Polymarket and Kalshi are both targeting $20B valuations and establishing themselves as the two dominant US prediction market platforms. Their complementary approaches suggest a stable duopoly rather than winner-take-all dynamics:

**Polymarket:** Crypto-native (USDC settlement), acquired CFTC compliance via QCX purchase, global user base, higher volume ($1B+ weekly). Regulatory path is "buy compliance" through acquisition.

**Kalshi:** Traditional finance integration, native CFTC approval through standard licensing, positioned for retail adoption through traditional brokers. Regulatory path is "build compliance" through established channels.

The duopoly structure mirrors other financial market patterns where complementary regulatory models serve different user bases. Polymarket captures crypto-native traders and international users. Kalshi captures traditional finance users and institutional adoption through broker integration.

The Block's observation that the prediction market space "exploded in 2025" suggests both platforms are growing the overall market rather than competing for fixed share. However, this duopoly structure may exclude new entrants — the regulatory barriers (either years-long CFTC licensing or $100M+ acquisitions) create high entry costs.

## Evidence

- Both Polymarket and Kalshi targeting $20B valuations (January 2026)
- Polymarket: $1B+ weekly volume, crypto-native, CFTC-via-acquisition
- Kalshi: CFTC-approved via traditional licensing, retail broker integration
- The Block: prediction market space "exploded in 2025"
- Polymarket monthly volume hit $2.6B by late 2024

## Challenges

The duopoly thesis assumes regulatory barriers remain high. If CFTC streamlines prediction market licensing or if state-level gambling classification fragments the market, new entrants could disrupt the two-player structure. Additionally, if either platform faces enforcement action (Polymarket's state gambling lawsuit, for example), the duopoly could collapse to monopoly.


### Additional Evidence (extend)
*Source: 2026-01-30-npr-kalshi-19-federal-lawsuits | Added: 2026-03-18*

Kalshi litigation outcome affects competitors Robinhood, Coinbase, FanDuel, and DraftKings, all of which recently announced rival prediction market services. A Kalshi loss could shut down the entire US prediction market industry beyond Polymarket's offshore model, while a Kalshi victory establishes federal preemption precedent reshaping sports betting regulation nationally.


### Additional Evidence (challenge)
*Source: [[2026-03-19-coindesk-ninth-circuit-nevada-kalshi]] | Added: 2026-03-19*

The emerging circuit split (Fourth and Ninth Circuits pro-state, Third Circuit pro-federal) creates operational exclusion zones for prediction markets regardless of CFTC registration. Nevada can now exclude Kalshi for at least two weeks pending preliminary injunction hearing, and Arizona filed first criminal charges against Kalshi on March 17, 2026. This state-by-state enforcement pattern fragments the market rather than enabling a stable duopoly structure, as platforms face different legal treatment across jurisdictions.

---

Relevant Notes:
- [[Polymarket vindicated prediction markets over polling in 2024 US election]]
- [[MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale]]

Topics:
- domains/internet-finance/_map
