---
type: source
title: "Prediction Market Act of 2026 — Full Statutory Text (S.4469, 119th Congress)"
author: "U.S. Government Publishing Office (GovInfo)"
url: https://www.govinfo.gov/bulkdata/BILLS/119/2/s/BILLS-119s4469is.xml
date: 2026-04-30
domain: internet-finance
secondary_domains: []
format: article
status: processed
processed_by: rio
processed_date: 2026-05-10
priority: high
tags: [prediction-markets, legislation, cftc, event-contracts, regulatory, dcm, sef, event-contract-definition]
intake_tier: research-task
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
---

## Content

S.4469, introduced by Senators McCormick (R-PA) and Gillibrand (D-NY) on April 30, 2026. Bipartisan bill to establish comprehensive regulatory framework for prediction markets under CFTC authority.

**KEY DEFINITIONAL FINDING — Event Contract:**
> "event contract means a contract for the sale of a commodity for future delivery, option on such a contract, or swap based on one or more excluded commodities that is— (i) based upon an occurrence, extent of an occurrence, or contingency (other than a change in the price, rate, value, or levels of a commodity described in section 1a(19)(i)); and (ii) listed by a designated contract market or swap execution facility."

**Definition of "contingency":**
> "An event or circumstance that may happen, but is not certain to occur, including the outcome of another event or circumstance."

**Entities required to comply:**
- Designated contract markets (DCMs)
- Swap execution facilities (SEFs)
- Futures commission merchants
- Derivatives clearing organizations

**Scope: DCM/SEF-listed only.** The definition explicitly requires event contracts be "listed by a designated contract market or swap execution facility." Decentralized, unregistered venues are outside the bill's scope. No "platform" definition; only formal regulatory categories (DCM, SEF) are addressed.

**No exclusion for DAO governance markets.** However, the scope limitation (DCM/SEF listed only) implicitly excludes MetaDAO's governance markets.

**Two-part exclusion mechanism:**
1. **Scope:** MetaDAO governance markets are not DCM/SEF-listed → not "event contracts" under this Act.
2. **Price-exclusion parenthetical:** Definition excludes contracts "based upon a change in the price, rate, value, or levels of a commodity" — MetaDAO's markets predict a governance decision's effect on token value, not a raw price change. TWAP is the settlement instrument, governance vote is the "occurrence" being predicted.

**Political context:** Senate unanimously passed S.Res.708 restricting congressional trading on prediction markets. The bill also includes: insider trading ban for politicians, age verification requirements (18+), CFTC authority to ban war/violence/terrorism contracts on public interest grounds.

**Competing bill:** Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act (Curtis-Schiff, March 23, 2026) would PROHIBIT sports and casino-style event contracts on CFTC platforms — the opposite philosophical approach.

## Agent Notes
**Why this matters:** This is the most important regulatory document of the session. The DCM/SEF scope limitation is a structural safe harbor for MetaDAO's conditional governance markets. Under the Prediction Market Act's definition, MetaDAO's markets are NOT "event contracts" because they are not listed on a DCM or SEF. This is the first clear statutory boundary that structurally excludes MetaDAO from prediction market regulatory scope.

**What surprised me:** The explicit DCM/SEF listing requirement in the event contract definition. I expected the bill to take a broader "any market" approach. Instead it explicitly limits regulatory scope to registered exchanges — which means MetaDAO's decentralized, non-registered governance markets fall outside the Act's reach by default, not by exception.

**What I expected but didn't find:** Any explicit carve-out for governance markets or DAOs. The protection comes from scope limitation, not explicit exclusion. This is a weaker form of protection — if scope is expanded in a future amendment or rulemaking, the protection disappears.

**KB connections:**
- [[MetaDAO conditional governance markets may fall outside CFTC event contract definition because TWAP settlement against internal token price is endogenous not an external observable event]] — the DCM/SEF scope limitation adds a NEW, parallel argument: MetaDAO's markets fall outside the Act's event contract definition on TWO grounds (endogeneity of settlement AND non-DCM-listing). Previously, the TWAP endogeneity argument was the only available defense.
- [[futarchy-based fundraising creates regulatory separation because there are no beneficial owners and investment decisions emerge from market forces not centralized control]] — the decentralized structure that creates regulatory separation also results in non-DCM status, which now has statutory significance under the Prediction Market Act.

**Extraction hints:** Primary claim to extract: "The Prediction Market Act of 2026 limits its event contract definition to DCM/SEF-listed markets, structurally excluding MetaDAO's decentralized governance markets from the Act's regulatory scope." This is a scope-qualified claim — it applies to the Prediction Market Act specifically, not to the existing CEA framework or other regulatory tracks.

**Context:** Bill introduced April 30, 2026 (same day CFTC ANPRM comment period closed). Not yet enacted. Legislative path is uncertain — the competing Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act represents a fundamentally different legislative philosophy. Either bill would need to pass both chambers and survive competing proposals.

## Curator Notes
PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[MetaDAO conditional governance markets may fall outside CFTC event contract definition because TWAP settlement against internal token price is endogenous not an external observable event]]
WHY ARCHIVED: The DCM/SEF scope limitation in the Prediction Market Act creates a NEW structural argument for MetaDAO's regulatory defensibility — distinct from and complementary to the TWAP endogeneity argument. The statutory language is now available for the TWAP claim file update.
EXTRACTION HINT: Extract two claims: (1) the DCM/SEF scope limitation as structural safe harbor for MetaDAO; (2) the "contingency" definition confirming governance votes are within the Act's conceptual scope — meaning the only protection is the scope limitation, not intrinsic exclusion. Both claims qualify Belief #6.
