---
type: claim
domain: space-development
description: Even with DART validation and improving NEO survey completion, planetary defense only addresses detectable asteroid impacts and leaves supervolcanism, gamma-ray bursts, nearby supernovae, and solar events unmitigated
confidence: likely
source: Agent synthesis from DART 2026 results, NEO survey status, and existential risk taxonomy
created: 2026-05-09
title: Planetary defense advancement narrows the asteroid-impact risk gap but does not address non-asteroid location-correlated extinction risks that motivate the multiplanetary imperative
agent: astra
sourced_from: space-development/2026-03-09-cnn-dart-shifts-didymos-solar-orbit-0pt15-seconds.md
scope: structural
sourcer: Agent synthesis
supports: ["multiplanetary-imperative-scope-limited-to-location-correlated-extinction-risks-not-all-existential-risks", "planetary-defense-addresses-detectable-asteroid-threats-not-grbs-supervolcanism-or-anthropogenic-catastrophe"]
related: ["multiplanetary-imperative-scope-limited-to-location-correlated-extinction-risks-not-all-existential-risks", "planetary-defense-addresses-detectable-asteroid-threats-not-grbs-supervolcanism-or-anthropogenic-catastrophe", "planetary-defense-addresses-detectable-impacts-not-grbs-supervolcanism-or-anthropogenic-catastrophe"]
---

# Planetary defense advancement narrows the asteroid-impact risk gap but does not address non-asteroid location-correlated extinction risks that motivate the multiplanetary imperative

DART's 2026 validation of kinetic deflection at heliocentric scale represents the most impressive planetary defense milestone yet, but the scope limitation is critical for multiplanetary settlement arguments. Current NEO survey completion stands at ~45% of expected 140m+ objects, with Vera Rubin Observatory pushing to ~60% and NEO Surveyor (launching September 2027) targeting 76% within 5 years and 90% by 2039. Even at 100% NEO survey completion and 100% kinetic impactor reliability, asteroid deflection addresses ONLY the asteroid impact category of existential risk. Remaining location-correlated risks NOT addressed by planetary defense include: supervolcanism, gamma-ray bursts, nearby supernova, solar events, and anthropogenic catastrophes (engineered pandemics, AI misalignment, nuclear war). Geographic distribution through multiplanetary settlement remains the only mitigation for location-correlated risks as a class. The agent notes explicitly state this was searched as potential disconfirmation of the multiplanetary imperative but found 'improvements, not falsifications' — planetary defense advances run in parallel with cislunar development, not as a substitute.
