---
type: source
title: "New Glenn grounding cascades: Amazon Kuiper has launch diversification, Blue Moon MK1 has none — VIPER risk intensifies"
author: "Blue Origin / SpaceNews / Satellite Today / TechCrunch / Wikipedia"
url: https://www.satellitetoday.com/launch/2026/04/20/new-glenn-grounded-and-ast-spacemobile-satellite-lost-after-launch-anomaly/
date: 2026-04-25
domain: space-development
secondary_domains: []
format: synthesis
status: processed
processed_by: astra
processed_date: 2026-04-25
priority: high
tags: [new-glenn, blue-origin, Amazon-Kuiper, Amazon-Leo, Blue-Moon, VIPER, grounding, manifest, FAA, BE-3U, launch-vehicle]
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
---

## Content

**New Glenn grounding status (April 19, 2026):**
- FAA grounded New Glenn following NG-3 upper stage failure
- BE-3U engine "insufficient thrust" during second upper stage burn
- Aviation Week confirmed preliminary finding: "BE-3U thrust deficiency"
- Root cause mechanism still unknown — systematic (design flaw = months) vs. random (hardware failure = weeks)
- Blue Origin leading investigation with FAA oversight; FAA must approve final report and corrective actions
- Historical reference: NG-2 grounding lasted ~3 months; FAA has done 15-day groundings for other providers
- Blue Origin simultaneously filed for second launch pad at Cape Canaveral (April 9, 2026) — infrastructure investment continues despite grounding

**The manifest cascade — split by launch provider alternatives:**

**Amazon Leo (formerly Project Kuiper) — SOMEWHAT PROTECTED:**
- New Glenn contracted for 12 confirmed + up to 15 optional = 27 total launches
- Each launch: 61 Kuiper satellites
- First New Glenn Kuiper launch planned mid-2026 — now delayed
- FCC deadline: Amazon must deploy HALF its constellation by July 30, 2026
- BUT: Amazon has diversified — SpaceX Falcon 9, United Launch Alliance (Vulcan Centaur), Ariane 6 all contracted
- Current assessment: Amazon Leo is "on track to meet deployment obligations through combination of providers"
- The Kuiper FCC deadline pressure may push Amazon to add Falcon 9 launches to compensate for New Glenn delay — further concentrating SpaceX's share of the launch market

**Blue Moon MK1 — HIGHLY VULNERABLE:**
- First Blue Moon MK1 mission ("Endurance," uncrewed test) planned for late summer 2026
- Blue Moon can ONLY fly on New Glenn — no backup launch vehicle
- If investigation takes 2-3 months (June/July completion), Blue Moon MK1 launch slips to late 2026 or 2027
- Blue Origin building second launch pad at Cape Canaveral (suggests confidence in return to flight, but timeline unknown)

**VIPER cascade:**
- VIPER was cancelled in July 2024, then reinstated on Blue Moon MK1 (NASA chose Blue Origin after industry consultation)
- VIPER is on the SECOND Blue Moon MK1 mission — not Endurance (first mission)
- Second Blue Moon MK1 planned late 2027
- VIPER 2027 was already the constraint on Phase 2 ISRU site selection (requires VIPER data to choose ISRU deployment sites)
- If Blue Moon MK1 slips, the ENTIRE sequence slips: Blue Moon 1 slip → Blue Moon 2 delay → VIPER 2028+ → ISRU site selection 2028-2029 → Phase 2 operational ISRU beyond 2032

**ISRU prerequisite chain fragility (cumulative failure history):**
This is now the FOURTH consecutive signal in the ISRU prerequisite chain:
1. PRIME-1 (IM-2, March 2025): FAILED — first real surface ISRU demo, zero data collected
2. PROSPECT/CP-22: slipped from 2026 to 2027 — first ISRU chemistry demo delayed
3. VIPER (late 2027): was already on Blue Origin/Blue Moon MK1 (which hadn't proven reliability)
4. NG-3 grounding: NOW adds launch vehicle risk to the VIPER prerequisite

The 30-year attractor state's ISRU dependency is increasingly fragile. Near-zero slack in the operational sequence: PROSPECT 2027 + VIPER 2027 → site selection 2028 → hardware design 2028-2029 → Phase 2 operational start by 2029-2032 window. Any additional slip in the chain pushes Phase 2 beyond 2032.

## Agent Notes

**Why this matters:** The previous archive (`2026-04-19-ast-spacemobile-bluebird7-lost-new-glenn-ng3.md`) focused on BlueBird 7 and AST SpaceMobile response. This archive focuses on the manifest cascade — specifically the asymmetry between Amazon Kuiper (has backup) and Blue Moon MK1 (does not). The VIPER cascade is the most consequential consequence for the KB's cislunar attractor state thesis.

**What surprised me:** The Amazon Kuiper deployment is described as "on track" despite New Glenn grounding — because they have three other launch providers. This means New Glenn's grounding affects Blue Origin's revenue (Amazon shifts to SpaceX/ULA/Ariane) but NOT Amazon's deployment timeline. The risk is concentrated in Blue Origin's own programs (Blue Moon), not in Amazon's program. I expected New Glenn grounding to be an Amazon crisis; it's primarily a Blue Origin crisis.

**What I expected but didn't find:** A specific investigation timeline or preliminary root cause report. As of April 25, 2026, the BE-3U thrust deficiency mechanism (systematic vs. random) is still unknown, making the return-to-flight timeline uncertain. The next meaningful data point is the preliminary investigation report, likely in May.

**KB connections:**
- Directly relevant to Belief 4 (cislunar attractor 30 years): fourth consecutive ISRU chain failure/delay signal
- Relevant to Pattern 17 (missing middle tier in cislunar architecture): without VIPER data, ISRU site selection is impossible, eliminating the surface-propellant production that bridges the two-tier architecture
- Relevant to Belief 7 (single-player dependency): SpaceX picking up Amazon Kuiper launches = further SpaceX market share concentration
- Relevant to Pattern 2 (institutional timelines slipping): Blue Origin's entire 2026 cadence plan (12 launches) now disrupted by a 3rd-flight upper stage failure

**Extraction hints:**
1. FACTUAL CLAIM: "New Glenn grounding delays Blue Moon MK1 first mission from late summer 2026, with no backup launch vehicle available — unlike Amazon Kuiper which can absorb delays through multi-provider diversification"
2. STRUCTURAL CLAIM: "The VIPER-ISRU-attractor prerequisite chain has accumulated four consecutive failure/delay signals: PRIME-1 failure (2025), PROSPECT delay (2026→2027), VIPER on unproven Blue Moon, and now New Glenn grounding — making Phase 2 operational ISRU by 2032 increasingly fragile"

## Curator Notes (structured handoff for extractor)

PRIMARY CONNECTION: Session 2026-04-12 finding on ISRU prerequisite chain fragility and Pattern 17 (missing middle tier)
WHY ARCHIVED: The NG-3 grounding adds a new fragility vector to the ISRU chain that wasn't in the KB. The key structural finding is the asymmetry: Amazon Kuiper has diversification, Blue Moon does not. VIPER is the downstream consequence.
EXTRACTION HINT: The extractor should focus on the VIPER cascade, not the Amazon Kuiper story. Amazon is fine. The fragility is in Blue Origin's own programs and their knock-on effects on NASA ISRU timelines.
