---
type: source
title: "New Quantum Computing Research Undermines the Economic Case for Moon-Mining Helium-3"
author: "Akap Energy"
url: https://www.akapenergy.com/post/new-quantum-comp-research-undermines-the-economic-case-for-moon-mining-helium-3
date: 2026-03-00
domain: space-development
secondary_domains: []
format: article
status: null-result
priority: medium
tags: [helium-3, quantum-computing, lunar-isru, economic-case, substitution-risk, darpa]
processed_by: astra
processed_date: 2026-03-19
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
extraction_notes: "LLM returned 1 claims, 1 rejected by validator"
---

## Content

Akap Energy analysis of how DARPA's He-3-free cryocooler program undermines the long-term economic case for lunar He-3 mining:

Key argument:
- DARPA is funding He-3-free alternatives specifically because He-3 supply is a strategic vulnerability
- Alternative cooling technologies being developed could reduce or eliminate He-3 demand in quantum computing
- Major contracts (Bluefors/Interlune) are in place but represent near-term demand, not long-term structural demand
- Analysis from Space.com: "At $20 million a kilogram, you can put together a good business just going after He-3 for quantum computing over the next five to seven years"

The "5-7 year window" framing is the most significant data point: industry analysts are already characterizing He-3 quantum demand as a time-limited opportunity rather than a permanent market.

Near-term vs. long-term demand distinction:
- Near-term (2029-2035): Contracted demand exists, buyers committed
- Long-term (2035+): He-3-free alternatives maturing reduces new system deployments using He-3; efficiency improvements (ColdCloud, ZPC PSR) reduce per-system consumption

## Agent Notes

**Why this matters:** The "5-7 year viable window" framing from industry analysts directly addresses Pattern 4's durability. If analysts are already seeing time-limited demand at current He-3 prices, the long-horizon commercial case for lunar extraction requires He-3 demand to outgrow efficiency improvements — which Maybell ColdCloud specifically undermines.

**What surprised me:** The near-term vs. long-term demand distinction is cleaner than I expected. The contracted demand (Bluefors, Maybell, DOE) is real and likely to be honored. The structural question is whether NEW He-3-based system deployments after 2030-2033 maintain similar volume as He-3-free alternatives mature.

**What I expected but didn't find:** Specific analysis of how Maybell ColdCloud's 80% efficiency reduction interacts with the 5-7 year window. If existing systems switch to ColdCloud (80% less He-3) AND new systems adopt He-3-free alternatives, the two effects compound rapidly.

**KB connections:**
- Pattern 4 (He-3 as first cislunar resource): "5-7 year viable window" framing provides temporal bound
- [[falling launch costs paradoxically both enable and threaten in-space resource utilization...]] — same paradox applies here: He-3-free technology both addresses the supply problem (good) and eliminates the demand problem (bad for Interlune)

**Extraction hints:** Extract the "5-7 year viable window" framing as an industry analyst view on temporal bounds of He-3 quantum demand. Note the price point ($20M/kg) that makes the window viable. Extract as qualifier on Pattern 4: the demand case is real but temporally bounded, not structural.

**Context:** The 5-7 year window (2029-2035) aligns almost perfectly with Interlune's contracted delivery period. If Interlune executes on time, the contracted window may work economically. The risk is delays (landing reliability, extraction technology) that push deliveries outside the viable window.

## Curator Notes

PRIMARY CONNECTION: Pattern 4 He-3 demand temporal bound — "5-7 year viable window" framing from industry analysis.

WHY ARCHIVED: Provides the most explicit temporal framing of the He-3 demand window, which complements the technological analysis of substitution pressures. The 2029-2035 delivery window Interlune is targeting aligns with the viable window analysts identify.

EXTRACTION HINT: Extract the temporal bound explicitly: He-3 quantum demand is a 5-7 year window at current prices, not a permanent structural market. This reframes Pattern 4 from "He-3 as first viable cislunar resource product" to "He-3 as first commercially viable but temporally bounded cislunar resource product." The qualification matters significantly for investment thesis evaluation.


## Key Facts
- Space.com industry analysts characterize He-3 quantum computing as viable 'over the next five to seven years' at $20M/kg
- DARPA is funding He-3-free cryocooler alternatives specifically because He-3 supply is a strategic vulnerability
- Bluefors/Interlune contracts represent near-term committed demand through approximately 2029-2035
- Maybell ColdCloud technology reduces He-3 consumption by 80% in existing systems
