---
type: claim
domain: energy
description: "US grid interconnection queue averages 5+ years with ~80% attrition. FERC Order 2023 attempts reform but implementation is slow. Transmission permitting can take 10+ years. The bottleneck is no longer technology or economics but regulatory process."
confidence: likely
source: "Astra; Lawrence Berkeley National Lab Queued Up 2024, FERC Order 2023, Princeton REPEAT Project, Brattle Group transmission analysis"
created: 2026-03-27
secondary_domains: ["ai-alignment"]
depends_on:
- AI datacenter power demand creates a 5-10 year infrastructure lag because grid construction and interconnection cannot match the pace of chip design cycles
- solar photovoltaic costs have fallen 99 percent over four decades making unsubsidized solar the cheapest new electricity source in history and the decline is not slowing
challenged_by:
- FERC Order 2023 and state-level reforms may compress interconnection timelines significantly by 2027-2028
- Behind-the-meter and distributed generation can bypass the interconnection queue entirely
related:
- the energy transition is a compound phase transition where solar storage and grid integration are crossing cost thresholds simultaneously creating nonlinear acceleration that historical single-technology transitions did not exhibit
reweave_edges:
- the energy transition is a compound phase transition where solar storage and grid integration are crossing cost thresholds simultaneously creating nonlinear acceleration that historical single-technology transitions did not exhibit|related|2026-04-20
---

# Energy permitting timelines now exceed construction timelines in most US jurisdictions creating a governance bottleneck that throttles deployment of already-economic generation and transmission

The US grid interconnection queue held over 2,600 GW of proposed generation capacity at end of 2023 (Lawrence Berkeley National Lab), roughly 2x the entire existing US generation fleet. The average time from interconnection request to commercial operation exceeds 5 years, and approximately 80% of projects in the queue never reach operation. The queue is growing faster than it clears — a structural backlog, not a temporary surge.

Transmission is worse. New high-voltage transmission lines require federal, state, and local permits that can take 10+ years. The Princeton REPEAT Project estimates that achieving US decarbonization targets requires roughly doubling the transmission system by 2035 — a build rate far beyond historical precedent, made nearly impossible by current permitting timelines.

The result is a paradox: solar and wind are the cheapest new generation sources, battery storage is approaching dispatchability thresholds, and demand (especially from AI datacenters) is surging — but the regulatory process for connecting new generation to the grid takes longer than building it. The bottleneck has shifted from technology and economics to governance.

This mirrors the technology-governance lag in space development: regulatory frameworks designed for a slower era of development cannot keep pace with technological capability. FERC Order 2023 attempts to reform the interconnection process (cluster studies, financial readiness requirements to reduce speculative queue entries), but implementation is slow and the backlog is enormous.

## Challenges

FERC Order 2023 reforms are beginning to take effect — financial commitment requirements should reduce speculative queue entries, potentially cutting the backlog by 30-50% by 2027-2028. Behind-the-meter generation (rooftop solar, on-site batteries, microgrids) can bypass the interconnection queue entirely — and datacenter operators are increasingly building private power infrastructure. State-level reforms (Texas's market-based approach, California's streamlined permitting for storage) show that regulatory acceleration is possible. The permitting bottleneck may be most acute in the 2025-2030 window and could ease as reforms take hold and speculative projects exit the queue.

---

Relevant Notes:
- [[AI datacenter power demand creates a 5-10 year infrastructure lag because grid construction and interconnection cannot match the pace of chip design cycles]] — the permitting bottleneck is a major component of this infrastructure lag
- [[solar photovoltaic costs have fallen 99 percent over four decades making unsubsidized solar the cheapest new electricity source in history and the decline is not slowing]] — solar is economic but permitting throttles deployment
- [[knowledge embodiment lag means technology is available decades before organizations learn to use it optimally creating a productivity paradox]] — permitting lag is a governance variant of knowledge embodiment lag
- space traffic management is a governance vacuum because there is no mandatory global system for tracking maneuverable objects creating collision risk that grows nonlinearly with constellation scale — same pattern: governance lags technology in both energy and space

Topics:
- energy systems