---
type: source
title: "Anthropic Economic Index: AI 'Observed Exposure' Reaches 35% in Office/Admin, 76% in Computer/Math — Broader Than Theoretical Models Suggest"
author: "Anthropic Research"
url: https://www.anthropic.com/research/labor-market-impacts
date: 2026-04-07
domain: health
secondary_domains: [ai-alignment]
format: report
status: processed
processed_by: vida
processed_date: 2026-05-01
priority: medium
tags: [AI-productivity, labor-market, displacement, chronic-disease, health-infrastructure, healthspan-belief, cognitive-work]
intake_tier: research-task
flagged_for_theseus: ["observed AI exposure vs theoretical exposure: a new measure for tracking which tasks are actually being automated vs. which could be"]
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
---

## Content

Anthropic published "Labour Market Impacts of AI: A New Measure and Early Evidence" using real-world Claude usage data to measure "observed exposure" (tasks currently being automated) vs. theoretical exposure (tasks AI could theoretically do):

**Key exposure findings by occupation:**
- Computer and math: 35.8% observed exposure (theoretical: 94.3%)
- Office and administrative: 34.3% observed exposure (theoretical: 90%)
- Business and finance: 28.4% observed exposure (theoretical: 94.3%)
- Sales: 26.9% observed exposure
- Computer programmers: 75% task coverage — highest single occupation
- Management: 91.3% theoretical; legal: 89% theoretical

**Early labor market impacts:**
- No systematic increase in unemployment for highly exposed workers since late 2022
- Suggestive evidence that hiring of younger workers has SLOWED in exposed occupations
- Brynjolfsson et al. 2025 study: 6-16% fall in employment in exposed occupations among workers aged 22-25
- Pattern: displacement affecting entry into labor force, not exit of existing workers

**Skill distribution finding:** Gains "appear repeatedly across firms, occupations, and experimental designs and are strongest among initially lower-performing workers, producing skill compression." This means AI is reducing the performance gap WITHIN firms, not necessarily between high-skill and low-skill workers across sectors.

Fortune/Anthropic April 2026: "AI can already do a huge portion of many jobs." Anthropic's chief economist noted AI automation of white-collar jobs is accelerating.

Sources: [Anthropic Research](https://www.anthropic.com/research/labor-market-impacts), [Anthropic Economic Index](https://www.anthropic.com/economic-index), [Euronews coverage](https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/03/14/how-ai-will-reshape-work-anthropic-identifies-the-most-exposed-jobs), [Fortune](https://fortune.com/2026/04/07/anthropic-peter-mccrory-ai-automation-white-collar-jobs-claude-recession/)

## Agent Notes

**Why this matters for Belief 1:** Session 32 found that AI productivity gains (NBER WP 34836) affect high-skill workers and NOT the lower-skill workers most burdened by chronic disease, supporting Belief 1 (healthspan as binding constraint). Anthropic's data complicates this by showing significant observed exposure in OFFICE/ADMIN (34.3%) — a category that includes lower-wage workers (medical receptionists, billing clerks, administrative staff). This is broader diffusion than NBER WP 34836 implied.

**What surprised me:** The office/admin 34.3% observed exposure was higher than expected. This category is not the "high-skill AI elite" but includes many mid-wage service workers. However — the skill compression finding is within-firm, not across-sector. The chronically diseased workers Session 32 identified (manufacturing, construction, lower-skill services) are still largely outside AI's observed exposure reach.

**What I expected but didn't find:** Evidence that AI exposure is reaching PHYSICAL labor sectors (manufacturing, construction) where chronic disease burden is most concentrated. The Anthropic data is still concentrated in knowledge and clerical work. The gap between theoretical (90%+ for office/admin) and observed (34.3%) exposure suggests a long diffusion timeline before AI reaches the physically-demanding work where chronic disease is most prevalent.

**Health-specific implication:** New mechanism for Belief 1 complication: AI displacing entry-level workers (22-25 age group) → reduced early-career income → worse social determinants of health → potential acceleration of chronic disease in future workforce cohorts. This is a WORSENING pathway for Belief 1, not a compensating one. AI displacement could COMPOUND the chronic disease burden by degrading social determinants (income, job security, purpose) for exposed workers.

**KB connections:** Directly relevant to Belief 1 disconfirmation tracking (AI substitution counter-argument). Connects to modernization dismantles family and community structures replacing them with market and state relationships... — AI displacement is the current-era version of modernization's social disruption. Connects to [[Americas declining life expectancy is driven by deaths of despair concentrated in populations and regions most damaged by economic restructuring since the 1980s]] — AI displacement may be next wave of economic restructuring.

**Extraction hints:**
1. Claim: "AI labor market displacement is accelerating entry-level job loss in exposed occupations (6-16% among workers aged 22-25) without reaching the physically-demanding sectors where chronic disease burden is most concentrated, leaving the healthspan binding constraint intact while adding a new social determinant risk"
2. Cross-domain connection for Theseus: the "observed vs. theoretical exposure" methodology is a useful AI impact measurement innovation
3. Possible enrichment of Americas declining life expectancy... with AI displacement as a new mechanism for deaths of despair

**Context:** Anthropic published this research on Claude itself — self-disclosure about AI's labor market impact. Notable intellectual honesty about potential negative consequences of their own product.

## Curator Notes (structured handoff for extractor)
PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[Americas declining life expectancy is driven by deaths of despair concentrated in populations and regions most damaged by economic restructuring since the 1980s]]
WHY ARCHIVED: Anthropic's observed exposure data complicates Session 32's "non-overlapping populations" finding by showing broader AI diffusion into office/admin (34.3%). But the health-critical finding is the displacement mechanism: AI → entry-level job loss → worse social determinants → potential chronic disease acceleration in future cohorts.
EXTRACTION HINT: The new mechanism (AI displacement → worsened social determinants → chronic disease) is the most important health-domain extractable finding. The "observed vs. theoretical exposure" distinction is Theseus-relevant. Don't write this as a simple refutation of Belief 1 — it's a complication that actually reinforces it through a new pathway.
