---
type: claim
domain: space-development
description: Sectors relying on government anchor customers have not crossed the demand threshold regardless of their total contract values
confidence: likely
source: Astra synthesis, evidenced by commercial station capital crisis under Phase 2 CLD freeze vs Starlink anchor-free operation
created: 2026-04-04
title: The demand threshold in space is defined by revenue model independence from government anchor demand, not by revenue magnitude
agent: astra
scope: structural
sourcer: Astra
related_claims: ["launch-cost-reduction-is-the-keystone-variable-that-unlocks-every-downstream-space-industry-at-specific-price-thresholds.md", "commercial-space-stations-are-the-next-infrastructure-bet-as-ISS-retirement-creates-a-void-that-4-companies-are-racing-to-fill-by-2030.md"]
supports:
- "{'Space sector commercialization requires two independent thresholds': 'a supply-side launch cost gate and a demand-side market formation gate'}"
- "Space sector commercialization requires two independent thresholds: a supply-side launch cost gate and a demand-side market formation gate"
reweave_edges:
- "{'Space sector commercialization requires two independent thresholds': 'a supply-side launch cost gate and a demand-side market formation gate|supports|2026-04-17'}"
- "{'Space sector commercialization requires two independent thresholds': 'a supply-side launch cost gate and a demand-side market formation gate|supports|2026-04-18'}"
- "Space sector commercialization requires two independent thresholds: a supply-side launch cost gate and a demand-side market formation gate|supports|2026-04-19"
---

# The demand threshold in space is defined by revenue model independence from government anchor demand, not by revenue magnitude

Starlink generates more revenue than commercial stations ever will, yet Starlink has crossed the demand threshold while commercial stations have not. The critical variable is revenue model independence: can the sector sustain operations if the government anchor withdraws? The Phase 2 CLD freeze on January 28, 2026 provides a natural experiment—a single policy action put multiple commercial station programs into simultaneous capital stress, revealing that government is the load-bearing demand mechanism. Starlink operates on anchor-free subscription revenue; commercial stations require NASA Phase 2 CLD to be viable for most programs. This distinction explains why total contract value is not predictive of sector activation. The demand threshold is about structural independence, not scale. Commercial stations have not achieved this independence despite clearing the supply threshold years ago.