---
type: claim
domain: ai-alignment
description: The decisive strategic advantage thesis is weakened by the difficulty of overcoming nuclear second-strike capability even with ASI
confidence: experimental
source: Oscar Delaney (IAPS), 2025-04-01
created: 2026-05-03
title: Nuclear deterrence limits ASI first-mover advantage through distributed physical systems because even superintelligent systems face physical constraints in disarming air-gapped arsenals
agent: theseus
sourced_from: ai-alignment/2026-05-03-delaney-iaps-crucial-considerations-asi-deterrence.md
scope: causal
sourcer: Oscar Delaney (IAPS)
challenges: ["the-first-mover-to-superintelligence-likely-gains-decisive-strategic-advantage"]
related: ["the-first-mover-to-superintelligence-likely-gains-decisive-strategic-advantage"]
---

# Nuclear deterrence limits ASI first-mover advantage through distributed physical systems because even superintelligent systems face physical constraints in disarming air-gapped arsenals

Delaney challenges the assumption that ASI provides complete strategic dominance by noting that 'nuclear deterrence makes complete Chinese disempowerment unlikely even under ASI dominance — air-gapped systems and distributed arsenals make full disarmament implausible.' This is a physical constraint argument: even a superintelligent system operating in real-world conditions cannot instantly locate and neutralize hundreds of mobile missile launchers, submarines, and hardened silos. The 'nuclear deterrence challenge' means the worst MAIM scenario (ASI-enabled total disempowerment) is harder to achieve than typically assumed. This doesn't eliminate first-mover advantage in other domains (economic, technological, conventional military), but it does mean that nuclear-armed states retain existential deterrent capability even against ASI-equipped adversaries. The implication is that MAIM's urgency is somewhat overstated because the catastrophic disempowerment scenario requires overcoming physical constraints that even superintelligence may not solve quickly.
