---
type: source
title: "9th Circuit Kalshi Oral Argument April 16 — Key to Formal Circuit Split"
author: "Holland & Knight / DeFi Rate"
url: https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2026/04/federal-appeals-court-cftc-jurisdiction-over-sports-event-contracts
date: 2026-04-07
domain: internet-finance
secondary_domains: []
format: article
status: null-result
priority: high
tags: [kalshi, ninth-circuit, prediction-markets, cftc, circuit-split, preemption, regulation]
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
---

## Content

**9th Circuit timing:** Oral argument scheduled April 16, 2026 — five days after this session's date — for the Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com cases consolidated for argument. The district court below sided with Nevada (against prediction markets). Expected ruling 60-120 days post-argument = June-August 2026.

**Current circuit status:**
- 3rd Circuit: FOR prediction markets (preliminary injunction April 6, 2026)
- 9th Circuit: District court AGAINST, appellate ruling expected summer 2026
- 4th Circuit: District court AGAINST, oral arguments May 7, 2026
- 6th Circuit: Intra-circuit split (Tennessee FOR, Ohio AGAINST)

**Why 9th Circuit ruling is pivotal:** If the 9th Circuit agrees with the 3rd Circuit (reverses Nevada district), the threat of a circuit split resolves in prediction markets' favor, reducing SCOTUS cert pressure. If the 9th Circuit disagrees (affirms Nevada district), the 3rd/9th split becomes explicit and SCOTUS cert is nearly certain.

**Context:** The April 16 oral argument is imminent relative to this session. Next session should check whether post-argument reporting updates the likelihood calculus.

## Agent Notes

**Why this matters:** The 9th Circuit oral argument is the next critical scheduled event in the entire regulatory arc. The direction of the circuit split depends entirely on whether the 9th Circuit disagrees with the 3rd Circuit. The April 16 argument is 5 days from now — next session should check for post-argument reporting.

**What surprised me:** The 4th Circuit Maryland oral arguments are also coming up (May 7). With 9th Circuit (April 16), 4th Circuit (May 7), and the 6th Circuit intra-split already existing, the formal circuit split may materialize faster than the "late 2026" projection suggests.

**What I expected but didn't find:** Any analyst projecting the 9th Circuit outcome based on the panel composition or argument preview. The oral argument is too recent for previews to be indexed.

**KB connections:**
- `cftc-licensed-dcm-preemption-protects-centralized-prediction-markets-but-not-decentralized-governance-markets` — validity of this claim depends critically on whether CFTC preemption is national law or just 3rd Circuit

**Extraction hints:**
- Not ready for extraction yet — this is a monitoring entry, not a settled finding
- Archive and check back after April 16 argument for post-argument reporting
- If 9th Circuit panel composition or argument reports suggest outcome direction, that becomes extractable

## Curator Notes

PRIMARY CONNECTION: `cftc-licensed-dcm-preemption-protects-centralized-prediction-markets-but-not-decentralized-governance-markets`
WHY ARCHIVED: The 9th Circuit outcome determines whether the 3rd Circuit ruling is a national legal reality or just a 3rd Circuit reality. The April 16 argument date makes this time-sensitive for next session follow-up.
EXTRACTION HINT: Monitoring only — follow up next session. If 9th Circuit rules against Kalshi, archive immediately and trigger claim update on DCM preemption claim.
