# Polymarket: Will Anthropic Make a Deal with the Pentagon?

## Overview
Prediction market on Polymarket tracking whether Anthropic will finalize a commercial agreement with the Pentagon. The market aggregates information from multiple sources including Trump's April 21 statement, White House meetings, DC Circuit oral arguments scheduled for May 19, and NSA's use of Mythos.

## Market Details
- **Platform**: Polymarket
- **Question**: Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?
- **Created**: Active as of April 23, 2026
- **Resolution criteria**: Not specified in source

## Strategic Context
The market serves as a real-time aggregation mechanism for assessing the probability of political resolution (Direction A scenario) versus legal resolution through the DC Circuit case. If the market assigns high probability (>70%) to a deal occurring before May 19, it would suggest consensus expectation that the constitutional floor question will be resolved politically rather than judicially.

## Timeline
- **2026-04-23** — Market active on Polymarket; probability not retrieved in this session

## Related Entities
- [[anthropic-pentagon-supply-chain-designation]]
- [[openai-pentagon-contract-2026]]

## Sources
- Polymarket market page (2026-04-23)