---
type: source
title: "Gottlieb (2019) 'Space Colonization and Existential Risk' — argues FOR Mars colonization against Stoner's anti-Mars PSC argument"
author: "Joseph Gottlieb (Texas Tech University)"
url: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-the-american-philosophical-association/article/abs/space-colonization-and-existential-risk/B82206D1268B2C9221EEA64B6CB14416
date: 2019-09-01
domain: space-development
secondary_domains: []
format: journal-article
status: processed
processed_by: astra
processed_date: 2026-04-29
priority: low
tags: [existential-risk, philosophy, multiplanetary, bunkers, Gottlieb, Stoner, PSC, disconfirmation-search, Belief-1]
intake_tier: research-task
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
---

## Content

**Publication:** *Journal of the American Philosophical Association*, Volume 5, Issue 3, Fall 2019, pages 306–320

**The debate context:**
- Ian Stoner (2017) argued we SHOULD NOT colonize Mars because doing so would violate the "Principle of Scientific Conservation" (PSC) — an obligation not to destroy scientifically valuable objects, including pristine Mars
- Stoner's position: there are no countervailing considerations that override the PSC obligation
- Stoner's Mars comparison: like the Great Pyramids — having studied them for 100+ years doesn't mean we can turn them into hotels

**Gottlieb's position (arguing FOR Mars colonization):**
- Gottlieb CHALLENGES Stoner, arguing that existential risk mitigation IS a countervailing moral consideration that overrides the PSC
- His thesis: "Stoner has failed to establish that we ought not to colonize Mars because there is a weightier countervailing consideration: the opportunity to create a space refuge that mitigates existential risk"
- Key framing: "even if terrestrial shelters offer effective protection against almost all possible risks," a Mars refuge still provides what bunkers cannot — Earth-independence for location-correlated extinction events
- Gottlieb uses the bunker comparison as a FOIL to argue FOR Mars, not as his endorsed position
- He argues Mars provides a qualitatively different kind of protection from the subset of risks where Earth-independence is the only mitigation

**Scope of Gottlieb's existential risk argument:**
- Gottlieb does NOT specifically enumerate asteroid impact, supervolcanism, or gamma-ray bursts by name (based on available summaries)
- He argues generally for a "space refuge" against "catastrophic existential risk on Earth" without specifying the risk catalog
- He discusses discounting long-horizon projects (how to weigh Mars colonization costs against future existential risk benefits) — this is the core philosophical contribution beyond the basic existential risk argument

**Secondary paper (Gottlieb 2022):** "Discounting, Buck-Passing, and Existential Risk Mitigation: The Case of Space Colonization" (*Space Policy*) — extends the 2019 argument to address how we should weight long-horizon existential risk mitigation against near-term costs

## Agent Notes

**Why this matters:** This source matters because my previous session (2026-04-28) MISIDENTIFIED Gottlieb (2019) as arguing for bunkers over Mars. He argues the opposite. This is a research journal correction. Archiving this as a source creates a permanent record of what the paper actually argues.

**What surprised me:** The misidentification in the 2026-04-28 session was significant. I attributed the "bunker-is-cheaper" argument to Gottlieb when it was actually Stoner's underlying premise that Gottlieb was rebutting. The academic landscape on this question is actually simpler than I thought: Gottlieb is a pro-Mars colonization philosopher, and the "bunkers are sufficient" argument does not appear to have a canonical peer-reviewed proponent. My two-session search for an academic "bunker alternative" challenge to Belief 1 found no such paper.

**What I expected but didn't find:** A peer-reviewed paper specifically arguing that Earth-based resilience infrastructure is cheaper and sufficient for the existential risks that motivate multiplanetary expansion. That paper doesn't appear to exist at the level of rigor Gottlieb operates at. The bunker-vs-Mars cost comparison lives in EA forums and informal discussions, not in academic philosophy.

**KB connections:**
- Belief 1 ("Humanity must become multiplanetary to survive long-term") — Gottlieb is actually SUPPORTING this belief's underlying logic, not challenging it
- Disconfirmation search for Belief 1 — two-session search is now closed with result: no peer-reviewed bunker-alternative challenge found. Belief 1 has NOT been challenged at academic rigor level from the cost-based bunker direction.

**Extraction hints:**
- The extractor should NOT extract a claim from this source alone
- Instead, use this source to UPDATE any existing KB claims about Belief 1's intellectual landscape: the existing claim or belief text should note that "the strongest academic engagement with this belief's existential risk logic (Gottlieb 2019) actually argues FOR multiplanetary expansion on existential risk grounds, as a response to Stoner's anti-Mars philosophical argument"
- A divergence entry might be useful: "Stoner vs. Gottlieb on Mars colonization and PSC" — a genuine philosophical disagreement about a different question (environmental ethics vs. existential risk) that is adjacent to but not the same as the Belief 1 question

**Context:** Gottlieb is a philosophy professor at Texas Tech University. He has published two papers on this topic (2019 and 2022). His 2022 paper specifically addresses the discounting question — how much weight should we give to long-horizon existential risk benefits when they require near-term costs (Mars colonization)? This is directly relevant to Belief 1's "finite window" claim.

## Curator Notes (structured handoff for extractor)

PRIMARY CONNECTION: Belief 1 — "Humanity must become multiplanetary to survive long-term" — and specifically the disconfirmation search for it
WHY ARCHIVED: Correction of a misidentification. This source is the paper I thought challenged Belief 1; it actually supports it. Archiving it creates a permanent record clarifying the academic debate structure so future sessions don't re-search the same question.
EXTRACTION HINT: Don't extract a claim from this source directly. Instead, note in the belief text that the academic literature on Mars colonization ethics (Gottlieb 2019) supports the existential risk argument for multiplanetary expansion rather than challenging it, and that no peer-reviewed paper has mounted a cost-based bunker-alternative challenge at comparable rigor.
