---
description: Centola's research shows behavioral and ideological change requires clustered networks with strong ties and ~25 percent committed minority because a signal crossing a weak tie arrives without social reinforcement while clustered exposure provides it
type: claim
domain: cultural-dynamics
created: 2026-02-17
source: "Centola 2010 Science, Centola 2018 Science, web research compilation February 2026"
confidence: likely
tradition: "network science, complex contagion, diffusion theory"
supports:
- community-owned-IP-grows-through-complex-contagion-not-viral-spread-because-fandom-requires-multiple-reinforcing-exposures-from-trusted-community-members
reweave_edges:
- community-owned-IP-grows-through-complex-contagion-not-viral-spread-because-fandom-requires-multiple-reinforcing-exposures-from-trusted-community-members|supports|2026-04-04
- identity-protective cognition causes people to reject evidence that threatens their group identity even when they have the cognitive capacity to evaluate it correctly|related|2026-04-18
related:
- identity-protective cognition causes people to reject evidence that threatens their group identity even when they have the cognitive capacity to evaluate it correctly
---

Damon Centola's research distinguishes two types of social contagion with fundamentally different diffusion dynamics. Simple contagion (information, disease) requires only one contact for transmission and spreads best through weak ties and small-world networks. Complex contagion (behavioral change, ideology adoption) requires multiple sources of reinforcement before adoption. Counterintuitively, weak ties and small-world networks can actually slow complex contagion because a signal traveling across a weak tie arrives alone, without social reinforcement.

**Why multiple exposures are needed.** Adopting a new ideology, behavior, or risky commitment is costly — it requires identity change, social risk, or behavioral effort. A single exposure creates awareness but not conviction. Multiple independent exposures from different trusted sources create the social proof needed to justify the cost. This is why information goes viral but ideology does not.

**The experimental evidence.** Centola's 2010 Science paper used matched online networks to show that health behaviors spread faster through clustered networks than random networks — the opposite of what simple contagion models predict. His 2018 Science paper established a tipping point: roughly 25% committed minority is sufficient to shift established social conventions. Below ~25%, committed minorities fail; above it, the convention flips rapidly. This connects to [[systemic change requires committed critical mass not majority adoption as Chenoweth's 3-5 percent rule demonstrates across 323 campaigns]] — Chenoweth's 3.5% may be the threshold for political movements specifically, while Centola's 25% is the threshold for behavioral/normative change in a general population. Different thresholds for different types of complex contagion.

For behavioral and ideological change, clustered networks with strong ties outperform distributed networks with weak ties. In clustered networks, you encounter the same idea from multiple trusted sources, providing the reinforcement needed for adoption. Structural diversity matters too — it is not just redundancy of exposure but exposure from different types of sources within your social cluster. A person who hears about collective intelligence from a researcher, a friend, and a podcast host has more reinforcement than someone who hears about it three times from the same researcher.

**Why this is load-bearing for TeleoHumanity's propagation.** The entire growth strategy routes through existing communities (Claynosaurz, metaDAO ecosystem, domain expert clusters) rather than broadcasting to the general public. This is not just a practical constraint — it is the CORRECT strategy per complex contagion theory. Each community cluster provides the dense, multi-source exposure that ideological adoption requires. The Living Agents serve as multiple distinct trusted sources within these clusters — Rio speaks mechanism design in the metaDAO community, Clay speaks entertainment in the Claynosaurz community, each providing reinforcing exposure in the vocabulary of their domain. Community members who believe in the agents for instrumental reasons (better analysis, capital access, governance tools) encounter the underlying worldview through repeated engagement — the ideology piggybacks on the instrumental value.

Since [[LivingIPs knowledge industry strategy builds collective synthesis infrastructure first and lets the coordination narrative emerge from demonstrated practice rather than designing it in advance]], the complex contagion mechanism IS the strategy: penetrate domain communities with instrumentally valuable agents, let the worldview propagate through the repeated exposure those agents create.

**Open question:** How do algorithmic platforms change complex contagion dynamics? Algorithmic recommendation creates artificial "multiple exposures" — but do they carry the trust weight of genuine social reinforcement? If algorithmic exposure substitutes for social exposure, complex contagion could operate at platform scale. If it doesn't (because trust requires human endorsement, not algorithmic surfacing), then dense human communities remain essential and platforms are just the medium, not the mechanism.

---

Relevant Notes:
- [[complex ideas propagate with higher fidelity through personal interaction than mass media because nuance requires bidirectional communication]] -- high-fidelity channels also provide the trust needed for complex contagion
- [[intelligence is a property of networks not individuals]] -- network structure determines not just intelligence but also adoption dynamics
- [[systemic change requires committed critical mass not majority adoption as Chenoweth's 3-5 percent rule demonstrates across 323 campaigns]] -- the political movement threshold (~3.5%) may differ from the general behavioral threshold (~25%) but both confirm that minority commitment, not majority adoption, drives change
- [[LivingIPs knowledge industry strategy builds collective synthesis infrastructure first and lets the coordination narrative emerge from demonstrated practice rather than designing it in advance]] -- the strategy that depends on complex contagion as its growth mechanism
- [[LivingIPs user acquisition leverages X for 80 percent of distribution because network effects are pre-built and contributors get ownership for analysis they already produce]] -- X provides the platform, but complex contagion requires the community clusters within it
- [[partial connectivity produces better collective intelligence than full connectivity on complex problems because it preserves diversity]] -- the collective brain hypothesis says larger networks innovate more, but complex contagion says ideological change needs dense clusters — different network architectures for different functions

Topics:
- [[memetics and cultural evolution]]
- [[maps/LivingIP architecture]]