---
confidence: likely
created: 2026-04-03
description: The deepest mechanism of epistemic collapse — selection pressure in all rivalrous domains rewards propagation fitness not truth, making information ecology degradation a structural feature
  of competition rather than an accident
domain: collective-intelligence
related:
- global capitalism functions as a misaligned autopoietic superintelligence running on human general intelligence as substrate with convert everything into capital as its objective function
- AI accelerates existing Molochian dynamics by removing bottlenecks not creating new misalignment because the competitive equilibrium was always catastrophic and friction was the only thing preventing
  convergence
- attractor-epistemic-collapse
source: Schmachtenberger 'War on Sensemaking' Parts 1-5 (2019-2020), Dawkins 'The Selfish Gene' (1976) extended to memes, Boyd & Richerson cultural evolution framework
type: claim
---

# What propagates is what wins rivalrous competition not what is true and this applies across genes memes products scientific findings and sensemaking frameworks

Schmachtenberger identifies the deepest mechanism underlying epistemic collapse: in any rivalrous ecology, the units that propagate are those with the highest propagation fitness, which is orthogonal to (and often opposed to) truth, accuracy, or utility.

The mechanism operates at every level:

1. **Genes.** What propagates is what reproduces most effectively, not what produces the healthiest organism. Selfish genetic elements, intragenomic parasites, and costly sexual selection all demonstrate that reproductive fitness diverges from organismal wellbeing.

2. **Memes.** Ideas that spread are those that trigger emotional engagement (outrage, fear, tribal identity), not those that are most accurate. A false claim that generates outrage propagates faster than a nuanced correction. Social media algorithms amplify this by optimizing for engagement, which is a proxy for propagation fitness.

3. **Products.** In competitive markets, the product that wins is the one that captures attention and generates revenue, not necessarily the one that best serves user needs. Attention-economy products (social media, news, advertising-supported content) are explicitly optimized for engagement rather than user wellbeing.

4. **Scientific findings.** Publication bias favors novel positive results. Replication studies are underfunded and underpublished. Sexy claims propagate; careful null results don't. The "replication crisis" is this mechanism operating within science itself.

5. **Sensemaking frameworks.** Even frameworks designed to improve sensemaking (including this one) are subject to propagation selection. A framework that feels compelling, explains everything, and has strong narrative structure will outcompete one that is more accurate but less shareable. This recursion means the problem of epistemic collapse cannot be solved from within the epistemic ecology — it requires structural intervention.

The structural implication: "marketplace of ideas" and "self-correcting science" assume that truth has sufficient propagation fitness to win in open competition. Schmachtenberger's argument, supported by the evidence across all five domains, is that truth has LESS propagation fitness than emotionally compelling falsehood — and the gap widens as communication technology accelerates propagation speed. AI accelerates this further: AI-generated content optimized for engagement will outcompete human-generated content optimized for truth.

The coordination implication: prediction markets and futarchy are structural solutions precisely because they create a domain where propagation fitness DOES align with truth — you lose money when your propagated belief is wrong. Skin-in-the-game forces contact with base reality, creating an ecological niche where truth-fitness > propaganda-fitness.

## Challenges

- The "marketplace of ideas fails" claim is contested. Wikipedia, scientific consensus on evolution/climate, and the long-run success of accurate forecasting all suggest that truth CAN propagate in competitive environments given the right institutional structure. The claim may overstate the structural advantage of falsehood.
- Equating genes, memes, products, scientific findings, and sensemaking frameworks may flatten important differences. Biological evolution operates on different timescales and selection mechanisms than cultural propagation.
- The recursive problem (frameworks about sensemaking are themselves subject to propagation selection) risks nihilism. If no framework can be trusted, the argument undermines itself.

---

Relevant Notes:
- [[global capitalism functions as a misaligned autopoietic superintelligence running on human general intelligence as substrate with convert everything into capital as its objective function]] — the misaligned SI selects for propagation-fit information that serves its objective function
- [[AI accelerates existing Molochian dynamics by removing bottlenecks not creating new misalignment because the competitive equilibrium was always catastrophic and friction was the only thing preventing convergence]] — AI amplifies propagation speed, widening the gap between truth-fitness and engagement-fitness

Topics:
- [[_map]]
