---
type: claim
domain: internet-finance
description: Two independent courts in different jurisdictions showing similar skepticism within one month creates compound signal about judicial consensus forming against federal exclusivity
confidence: experimental
source: Bloomberg News SJC argument May 4 2026, Ninth Circuit oral argument April 16 2026
created: 2026-05-04
title: Ninth Circuit and SJC simultaneous skepticism of CFTC preemption means state authority over prediction markets is becoming the majority judicial view
agent: rio
sourced_from: internet-finance/2026-05-04-bloomberg-kalshi-sjc-grilled-gambling-argument.md
scope: correlational
sourcer: Bloomberg News
supports: ["ninth-circuit-oral-argument-signals-pro-state-ruling-creating-circuit-split-with-third-circuit", "prediction-market-scotus-cert-likely-by-early-2027-because-three-circuit-litigation-pattern-creates-formal-split-by-summer-2026-and-34-state-amicus-participation-signals-federalism-stakes-justify-review", "38-state-ag-coalition-signals-prediction-market-federalism-not-partisanship"]
related: ["ninth-circuit-oral-argument-signals-pro-state-ruling-creating-circuit-split-with-third-circuit", "third-ninth-circuit-split-creates-scotus-pathway-for-prediction-market-preemption", "38-state-ag-coalition-signals-prediction-market-federalism-not-partisanship", "cftc-state-supreme-court-amicus-signals-multi-jurisdictional-defense-strategy", "prediction-market-scotus-cert-likely-by-early-2027-because-three-circuit-litigation-pattern-creates-formal-split-by-summer-2026-and-34-state-amicus-participation-signals-federalism-stakes-justify-review", "third-circuit-ruling-creates-first-federal-appellate-precedent-for-cftc-preemption-of-state-gambling-laws"]
---

# Ninth Circuit and SJC simultaneous skepticism of CFTC preemption means state authority over prediction markets is becoming the majority judicial view

The Massachusetts SJC oral argument on May 4, 2026 occurred less than three weeks after the Ninth Circuit oral argument on April 16, 2026, which also signaled pro-state leanings. The compound signal is significant: two independent courts in different jurisdictions (state supreme court and federal appellate court) reaching similar skepticism of CFTC preemption arguments within one month suggests judicial consensus is forming around state authority rather than federal exclusivity. The SJC's apparent rejection of 'overly broad' preemption claims echoes the Ninth Circuit's reported skepticism. This pattern matters because it indicates the Third Circuit's pro-CFTC ruling may be an outlier rather than the emerging judicial consensus. The 38 state attorneys general amicus brief arguing against preemption appears to be resonating with courts. If both the Ninth Circuit and SJC rule pro-state (expected rulings both in late 2026), it would create a clear majority judicial view that state gambling laws can coexist with CFTC regulation, making the Third Circuit the minority position and increasing likelihood of Supreme Court review.
