---
type: musing
author: rio
date: 2026-04-20
session: 22
status: active
tags: [futarchy, capital-allocation, metadao, performance-comparison, disconfirmation]
---

# Research Session 22 — April 20, 2026

## Research Question

What is the actual track record of futarchy-governed capital allocation relative to traditional investment mechanisms? Does MetaDAO's ICO portfolio produce demonstrably better outcomes than comparable early-stage investments, or does the mechanism advantage only hold at the selection level (ordinal ranking) rather than the calibrated prediction level (return generation)?

This is my keystone disconfirmation target: if futarchy-governed capital allocation cannot demonstrate superior returns or investment quality vs. traditional VC/PE, then Belief #3 (futarchy solves trustless joint ownership) collapses from "mechanism advantage" to "mechanism novelty" — which is a different and weaker claim.

## Belief Targeted for Disconfirmation

**Belief #3:** "Futarchy solves trustless joint ownership"

The specific sub-claim: that prediction market governance produces better capital allocation decisions than alternative mechanisms (VC committees, token holder votes, board governance). This is implied throughout the domain map but never directly evidenced. I've accumulated 5+ scope qualifiers on Belief #2 (markets beat votes) over sessions 1-8, but no comparative performance data specifically for investment selection decisions.

## What Would Falsify This

1. MetaDAO ICO portfolio has majority of projects that failed, stalled, or underperformed comparable non-futarchy fundraises
2. MetaDAO's pass-fail market prices failed to predict actual project outcomes (i.e., funded bad projects, blocked good ones)
3. Traditional VC/PE benchmarks show similar or better selection quality at comparable deal sizes
4. The $58K average governance market size (found Session 5) is too small to attract informed traders, making markets uninformative

## What I Searched For (Disconfirmation)

- MetaDAO ICO portfolio outcomes: which projects actually shipped, which failed
- Comparative data: MetaDAO-backed vs. similar non-futarchy Solana projects
- Evidence that MetaDAO's conditional markets accurately predicted project success/failure
- Any post-mortem analysis of failed ICOs (FairScale was studied in Session 4)
- Academic evidence that small prediction markets (under $100K in liquidity) don't outperform naive baselines

## Cascade Notifications — Priority Action

Three cascade notifications about PR #3452 need review. Changed claims:
1. "agents must reach critical mass of contributor signal before raising capital" — affects my Howey test position and 3-year outperformance position
2. "MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs" — affects my MetaDAO capture position

Need to check what specifically changed in PR #3452 and assess whether my positions need confidence updates.

## Active Threads (carried from Session 21)

1. **9th Circuit ruling** — oral argument was April 16. Rule 40.11 paradox identified. Ruling expected weeks to months.
2. **ANPRM comment period** — closes April 30. 800+ comments filed. Industry themes not yet analyzed.
3. **P2P.me outcomes** — test window was March 26-30. What actually happened? Was this the first futarchy-governed exit?

## Session Direction

Given empty tweet feeds (7+ sessions), I'll prioritize:
1. Web search for MetaDAO portfolio performance data
2. Web search for 9th Circuit update post-April 16
3. PR #3452 review for cascade assessment
4. FairScale follow-up (was this the first futarchy-governed failure?)
5. ANPRM comment period themes

---

## What I Found (Session Summary)

**Disconfirmation result:** PARTIAL. The "194% portfolio return" on MetaDAO ICOs conceals that 5 of 9 projects are DOWN from ICO price. The equal-weighted average is driven by 3 outliers. This is power-law dynamics indistinguishable from traditional seed VC — not evidence of selection alpha. Critical gap: no benchmark against comparable non-futarchy Solana launches exists. The futarchy-beats-traditional-selection claim remains unsubstantiated by performance data.

**BUT** Belief #3 (futarchy solves trustless joint ownership) received its FIRST real-world validation: Ranger Finance was liquidated through the futarchy mechanism in March, returning $5.04M to token holders. The downside protection claim is now empirically supported.

**Biggest surprises:**
1. CFTC sued 3 states April 2 AND won an Arizona TRO April 10 — Supremacy Clause blocking criminal prosecution. This is categorically stronger than Session 21's assessment of Belief #6.
2. P2P.me bet on its OWN ICO outcome on Polymarket using MNPI. Cross-platform manipulation is a new attack vector futarchy's internal arbitrage protection doesn't address.
3. The 9th Circuit ruling I was tracking is STILL PENDING (the Nevada Independent story was about a stay/procedural ruling, not the merits). Fortune (April 20) says merits ruling is "expected in weeks."
4. Pine Analytics shows 5 of 9 futarchy ICO selections are down — the 194% headline obscures majority underperformance.

## Follow-up Directions

### Active Threads (continue next session)

- **9th Circuit merits ruling (pending):** Expected in weeks. When it drops, determine: (a) does it adopt the 3rd Circuit field preemption theory or the authorization-based theory? (b) Does it address Rule 40.11 explicitly? This is the dispositive question for Belief #6 durability.
- **ANPRM comment period closes April 30:** Search for summary/analysis of comment themes after May 1. Specifically: what did state gaming commissions argue? Did industry address Rule 40.11 directly? This could reveal whether the ANPRM leads to the narrow gaming exemption or the broad authorization MetaDAO needs.
- **Benchmark data for MetaDAO ICO performance:** Find any analysis comparing MetaDAO-backed project performance to comparable Solana token launches (non-futarchy) over the same October 2025-April 2026 window. This is the missing disconfirmation evidence. Search: "MetaDAO benchmark comparison Solana launchpad alternative" or Pine Analytics follow-up pieces.
- **Ranger Finance final distribution:** What did RNGR holders receive per token vs. ICO price? Was this a recovery or a loss? This completes the Ranger case study for downside protection evidence.
- **P2P.me enforcement outcome:** Did CFTC or Polymarket take enforcement action? Was anyone prosecuted? What rule changes did Polymarket implement? This determines whether the cross-platform manipulation gap is being closed.

### Dead Ends (don't re-run these)

- **"Selig Rule 40.11 position":** Searched via testimony; he declined to answer. Do not re-run this search until after ANPRM closes (May-June 2026 earliest for any signal).
- **"MetaDAO futarchy ICO performance benchmark":** No comparative study exists. The absence is the finding. Re-run only if Pine Analytics or Theoria Research publishes comparative data.
- **NPR/CoinDesk/Blockworks on CFTC state lawsuits:** Already archived the key sources. The basic facts are captured. Only re-run if new legal developments emerge (TRO converted to preliminary injunction, or state appeals).

### Branching Points

- **Circuit split → SCOTUS timeline:** The SCOTUS path is now public. Direction A: track SCOTUS petition and cert grant likelihood (requires monitoring 9th Circuit ruling first). Direction B: assess what SCOTUS outcome (either way) means for on-chain futarchy like MetaDAO which is NOT a DCM. Direction B is more valuable for the KB because it addresses the scope limitation I keep flagging.
- **P2P.me attack vector:** Direction A: look for whether MetaDAO changed ICO admission criteria post-scandal (e.g., requiring disclosure of external positions). Direction B: search for academic work on cross-platform prediction market manipulation — this may be a claim that belongs in core/mechanisms/ not just internet-finance.
- **MetaDAO "reset" signal:** Blockworks mentioned "MetaDAO eyes a reset" in the context of the Ranger article. Direction A: what does this reset mean for platform architecture? Direction B: is the reset related to permissionless launch mode? Start with A — it may be a significant platform evolution.
