---
type: source
title: "34+ States File Amicus Against Kalshi in Third Circuit — Federalism Coalition Signals SCOTUS Pressure"
author: "Sportico / CDC Gaming"
url: https://www.sportico.com/law/analysis/2026/kalshi-third-circuit-new-jersey-scotus-1234889561/
date: 2026-04-07
domain: internet-finance
secondary_domains: []
format: article
status: null-result
priority: medium
tags: [kalshi, scotus, prediction-markets, states, federalism, cftc, amicus, tribal-gaming]
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
---

## Content

**State coalition in Third Circuit Kalshi case:**
- 34+ states plus Washington DC filed amicus briefs supporting New Jersey (against Kalshi)
- Coalition is organized around federalism concerns: states argue CEA preemption would strip state regulatory authority over gambling-adjacent activities

**Tribal gaming angle (novel):**
- 65+ tribal nations filed amicus briefs
- Tribes argue that June 2025 SCOTUS ruling (*FCC v. Consumers' Research*) undermines CFTC's self-certification authority — a separate doctrinal hook for SCOTUS cert beyond the circuit split

**Scale of opposition context:**
- The 34+ state coalition is the largest state coalition documented against prediction market regulation in the research series
- Provides political signal to SCOTUS: the federalism stakes are not a New Jersey idiosyncrasy but a national concern

**SCOTUS implications:**
- Coalition size of this scale typically signals SCOTUS should take the case for the federalism question alone, independent of circuit split
- MindCast AI analyst projection: SCOTUS grants cert before December 2026 conditional on 9th + 4th Circuit divergence

## Agent Notes

**Why this matters:** The coalition size was much larger than expected. Previous sessions characterized this as "a few states opposing Kalshi" — the actual number is 34+ plus DC plus 65+ tribal nations. This changes the political calculus for SCOTUS cert: the federalism question has a national coalition on one side that makes cert pressure high even without waiting for circuit crystallization.

**What surprised me:** The tribal gaming angle via *FCC v. Consumers' Research* (June 2025) is a completely new doctrinal hook that appeared nowhere in the previous 17 sessions. Tribes are arguing a SCOTUS case about administrative authority undermines the CFTC's power to self-certify products — a separate grounds for challenging Kalshi's DCM license even if preemption holds.

**What I expected but didn't find:** Any New Jersey AG post-ruling statement committing to petition. The AG's "evaluating options" language suggests strategic delay, possibly to preserve the ability to petition on full merits rather than the injunction.

**KB connections:**
- `cftc-multi-state-litigation-represents-qualitative-shift-from-regulatory-drafting-to-active-jurisdictional-defense` — this claim focused on CFTC's offensive litigation; the 34-state defensive coalition is the other side of that same war
- `retail-mobilization-against-prediction-markets-creates-asymmetric-regulatory-input-because-anti-gambling-advocates-dominate-comment-periods-while-governance-market-proponents-remain-silent` — the state coalition is the political manifestation of the same anti-gambling mobilization

**Extraction hints:**
- Add to existing SCOTUS timeline claim: 34+ state amicus coalition + tribal gaming *FCC v. Consumers' Research* hook creates cert pressure beyond circuit split
- Potentially a NEW claim: "Tribal gaming interests' FCC v. Consumers' Research challenge to CFTC self-certification authority provides a SCOTUS cert hook independent of the prediction market circuit split"

## Curator Notes

PRIMARY CONNECTION: `cftc-multi-state-litigation-represents-qualitative-shift-from-regulatory-drafting-to-active-jurisdictional-defense`
WHY ARCHIVED: Adds the state-side coalition dimension (34+ states, 65+ tribes) which was underestimated in previous sessions. Tribal gaming angle is a genuinely novel doctrinal finding not in KB.
EXTRACTION HINT: Two items: (1) correct the record on coalition scale — 34+ states not "a few"; (2) tribal gaming FCC v. Consumers' Research as new SCOTUS cert hook to add to existing regulatory claims
