---
type: source
title: "Kalshi Controls 89% of US Prediction Market Volume — Bank of America Report April 2026"
author: "CoinDesk / Bank of America"
url: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/09/kalshi-now-controls-89-of-the-u-s-prediction-market-as-regulated-trading-takes-over
date: 2026-04-09
domain: internet-finance
secondary_domains: []
format: news-article
status: processed
processed_by: rio
processed_date: 2026-05-02
priority: high
tags: [Kalshi, Polymarket, prediction-markets, market-share, regulated-trading, CFTC, DCM]
intake_tier: research-task
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
---

## Content

According to a Bank of America report (April 2026), Kalshi now controls approximately 89% of measured U.S. prediction market volume:
- Kalshi: ~89%
- Polymarket: ~7%
- Crypto.com: ~4%

Total weekly volume rose 4% week-over-week, with Kalshi leading gains at 6% growth.

Kalshi's dominant position is attributed primarily to its regulatory status as a CFTC-designated contract market (DCM). Polymarket remains restricted from US users due to the 2022 CFTC settlement, though it is seeking approval for its main exchange (separate from the November 2025 intermediated US-only platform).

Nevada and Massachusetts have both secured preliminary injunctions against Kalshi at the state level (ongoing), while New Jersey lost an appeal that limits its ability to enforce gambling laws against the firm.

Ongoing legal battles: CFTC vs. 5 states (Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, Wisconsin, New York) — determination of whether event contracts are financial instruments under CEA or gambling under state law.

## Agent Notes

**Why this matters:** Kalshi's 89% US regulated market share is the clearest evidence of how regulatory moat creates market dominance in prediction markets. This is the structure my "three-way category split" claim describes — regulated DCMs own the US space, offshore decentralized (HIP-4) handles non-US crypto-native volume, and on-chain governance markets (MetaDAO) exist outside both categories.

**What surprised me:** I expected Polymarket to have meaningfully more than 7% of US volume. The 89/7/4 split suggests the regulatory moat is even more decisive than I thought — Kalshi's CFTC registration has essentially monopolized regulated US volume. This is a "regulatory capture as competitive advantage" dynamic.

**What I expected but didn't find:** Any market share data for MetaDAO or other on-chain governance platforms. Confirming — on-chain governance markets are in a separate category entirely, not measured in the same frame.

**KB connections:**
- [[Internet finance is an industry transition from traditional finance where the attractor state replaces intermediaries with programmable coordination and market-tested governance]] — Kalshi's dominance is ironically achieved through the incumbent regulatory structure (DCM license), not despite it
- [[futarchy-based fundraising creates regulatory separation because there are no beneficial owners and investment decisions emerge from market forces not centralized control]] — MetaDAO's regulatory invisibility is structurally consistent with this data

**Extraction hints:**
- Main claim candidate: "CFTC regulatory status creates near-monopoly market share in US prediction markets, with Kalshi controlling 89% of regulated US volume versus Polymarket's 7% — demonstrating that regulatory moat replaces product moat in regulated financial market categories" — confidence: likely
- Secondary angle: The 89% dominance plus the ongoing state enforcement actions creates a "capture or exit" pressure on prediction market platforms — US users face either regulated DCM (Kalshi) or no access (for Polymarket main exchange)

**Context:** Bank of America report April 9, 2026. This is the most granular US market share data found in any research session.

## Curator Notes (structured handoff for extractor)

PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[Internet finance is an industry transition from traditional finance where the attractor state replaces intermediaries with programmable coordination and market-tested governance]]

WHY ARCHIVED: 89% market share figure is the clearest data point for how regulatory moat functions in prediction markets. Critical context for three-way category split claim.

EXTRACTION HINT: The regulatory moat angle is the key claim — Kalshi wins not on product but on regulatory status. Connect to the DCM-to-perps pivot (the license is strategically valuable for expansion into full derivatives markets).
