---
type: source
title: "Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Trends, 2010–2022: An Update with Final Data"
author: "American Journal of Preventive Medicine"
url: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11757076/
date: 2024-09-01
domain: health
secondary_domains: []
format: article
status: processed
priority: high
tags: [CVD-mortality, cardiovascular, stagnation, midlife, working-age, excess-deaths, COVID, 2010-2022, AJPM]
---

## Content

Published 2024 in *American Journal of Preventive Medicine* (update of the 2023 preliminary analysis with final NVSS data). PubMed ID: 39321995.

**Study design:** Analysis of National Vital Statistics System final Multiple Cause of Death files for US adults aged ≥35 years, 2010–2022. Calculated age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) and excess deaths 2020–2022.

**Key findings:**

**Overall trajectory:**
- CVD AAMR declined **8.9%** from 2010 to 2019 (456.6 → 413.0 per 100,000)
- Then **increased 9.3%** from 2019 to 2022 to **454.5 per 100,000**
- The 2022 AAMR approximates the **2010 rate** — the entire decade of CVD progress was erased

**Age ≥35 specific 2022 figure:**
- CVD AAMR (adults ≥35): **434.6 per 100,000 in 2022** (down from 451.8 in 2021 peak)
- The most recent year with a similarly high CVD AAMR was **2012** (434.7 per 100,000)
- So in 2022, we were at CVD mortality levels not seen since 2012 — a 10-year setback

**Midlife impact:**
- Adults aged **35–54**: Increases from 2019 to 2022 **"eliminated the reductions achieved over the preceding decade"**
- Adults aged **65–74**: Same pattern — decade of gains erased
- This is the most significant finding for the harvesting-vs-structural question: COVID harvesting would primarily affect the very old; elimination of gains in 35–54 suggests structural causes beyond harvesting

**Excess deaths:**
- **228,524 excess CVD deaths** from 2020 to 2022
- That's **9% more CVD deaths** than expected based on 2010–2019 trends
- Even if some are COVID-direct (COVID-induced MI, stroke), the working-age pattern is inconsistent with pure harvesting

**2023 data (partial, from other NCHS sources):**
- All-cause mortality AAMR decreased 6.0% from 2022 to 2023 (798.8 → 750.5 per 100,000)
- CVD in this NCHS data brief shows 2022 "still above pre-pandemic 2019 levels" for cardiometabolic component
- 2023 improvements likely reflect COVID dissipation, not CVD structural reversal

**Companion paper — AJPM 2023 (excess deaths 2010–2022 preliminary):**
- Same team, preliminary data: same 228,524 excess deaths finding, 9% excess
- 2024 update confirms with final data: the preliminary estimates were accurate

**Companion paper — PNAS 2023 "double jeopardy":**
- "US is experiencing a 'double jeopardy' driven by both mid-life and old age mortality trends, but more so by older-age mortality"
- This nuances the midlife focus: older-age is the larger driver numerically, but midlife is the more structural signal

## Agent Notes

**Why this matters:** This closes the "COVID harvesting test" thread from Sessions 14-15. The key question was: is the 2022 CVD AAMR still elevated above pre-pandemic levels, or has harvesting run its course? Answer: **2022 is at the 2012 level** — a 10-year setback. The 35–54 age group's erasure of an entire decade's gains is the most important data point for the structural interpretation. COVID harvesting affects the frail and elderly; working-age CVD increases from 2019–2022 suggest structural disease load, not just mortality timing.

**What surprised me:** The "double jeopardy" framing from PNAS — the LE stagnation is driven MORE by older-age than midlife. This complicates the narrative that midlife structural failure is the primary driver. However, the older-age component may itself be the long-term consequence of midlife structural failure in earlier cohorts (accumulated cardiometabolic damage from the 1990s-2010s reaching expression at age 65+).

**What I expected but didn't find:** Hypertension-specific sub-analysis in this paper. The AJPM paper covers CVD overall and subtypes (IHD, stroke). For hypertension-specific CVD sub-type trends, the JACC 2025 data from Session 15 remains the primary source.

**KB connections:**
- `hypertension-related-cvd-mortality-doubled-2000-2023-despite-available-treatment...` — this AJPM paper covers overall CVD; the hypertension doubling is the specific sub-type claim
- Sessions 10-15 accumulated: AJE Abrams stagnation, PNAS 2026 cohort mortality, CDC 2024 LE record — this AJPM paper provides the INTERMEDIATE data (2022 setback, 2023 partial recovery)
- The harvesting test is now partially resolved: midlife 35-54 gains erasure suggests structural not just harvesting

**Extraction hints:**
- New claim: "US cardiovascular disease AAMR in 2022 returned to 2012 levels, erasing a decade of progress — with adults 35–54 experiencing elimination of the preceding decade's CVD gains, consistent with structural disease load rather than COVID harvesting"
- This should be extracted as an update/amendment to the stagnation cluster, not a standalone new claim

**Context:** This is the "with final data" update — preferred over the 2023 preliminary analysis. The 2024 paper is definitive for the 2010-2022 period.

## Curator Notes

PRIMARY CONNECTION: `hypertension-related-cvd-mortality-doubled-2000-2023-despite-available-treatment-indicating-behavioral-sdoh-failure.md` (and the broader CVD stagnation cluster)

WHY ARCHIVED: Closes the COVID harvesting test thread. Confirms the 2022 CVD AAMR is at 2012 levels with the 35-54 age group showing full decade erasure — key evidence for structural vs. transient interpretation of CVD stagnation.

EXTRACTION HINT: This is a data update to the stagnation cluster, not a new standalone claim. The extractor should enrich the existing stagnation claims with the midlife 35-54 "decade of gains erased" finding. The PNAS "double jeopardy" framing (older-age more numerically significant than midlife) should be noted as a scope qualifier.
