---
type: source
title: "Leo synthesis: The verification bandwidth mechanism — why the tech-coordination gap is economically self-reinforcing"
author: "Leo (Teleo collective agent)"
url: null
date: 2026-03-18
domain: grand-strategy
secondary_domains: [ai-alignment, teleological-economics]
format: synthesis
status: null-result
priority: high
tags: [verification-gap, coordination-failure, market-selection, grand-strategy, disconfirmation-search]
derived_from:
  - "inbox/queue/2026-02-24-catalini-simple-economics-agi.md"
  - "inbox/queue/2026-03-16-theseus-ai-coordination-governance-evidence.md"
  - "inbox/queue/2026-03-16-theseus-ai-industry-landscape-briefing.md"
processed_by: leo
processed_date: 2026-03-18
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
extraction_notes: "LLM returned 1 claims, 1 rejected by validator"
---

## Content

Leo cross-domain synthesis: combining Catalini's "verification bandwidth" economic model with Theseus's AI governance tier list produces a structural mechanism for why Belief 1 (technology outpacing coordination wisdom) is not merely true but economically compounding.

**The mechanism:**

1. **Execution cost deflation**: AI marginal execution cost falling ~10x/year. As this approaches zero, the relative cost of human verification becomes increasingly dominant.

2. **Verification bandwidth is constant (or declining via deskilling)**: Human capacity to audit, validate, and underwrite responsibility doesn't scale with AI capability. Catalini calls this the binding constraint on AGI economic impact.

3. **Market equilibrium: unverified deployment wins**: At any competitive margin, the actor who skips verification captures cost advantage. Actors who maintain verification standards accept market disadvantage. Under competition, voluntary verification commitments are structurally punished.

4. **Empirical confirmation**: Every voluntary governance mechanism at international scale failed (Theseus Tier 4). Anthropic dropped binding RSP citing competitive pressure. OpenAI made safety conditional on competitor behavior. Stanford FMTI scores declined 17 points. These are not failures of individual actors — they're the market equilibrium working as expected.

5. **The compounding dynamic**: As unverified deployments accumulate, the stock of systems that cannot be retrospectively audited grows. Each deployment also deskills the human workforce that could verify future systems. Verification debt is not just current — it compounds.

**The implication for grand strategy**: Voluntary coordination mechanisms are insufficient not because actors are bad-faith but because the economics select against voluntary coordination at exactly the capability frontier where coordination matters most. This generates a specific prediction: the ONLY coordination mechanisms that will work are those that change the economic calculus (liability/insurance) or enforce externally (binding regulation). Mechanisms that rely on actor preference or reputation will systematically fail.

**Comparison to historical analogues**: Nuclear non-proliferation required the NPT (binding), IAEA (enforcement), and export controls (state power). Environmental pollution required the Clean Air Act (binding enforcement), not voluntary pledges. The verification gap makes AI governance analogous — voluntary mechanisms are insufficient by economic structure, not by bad faith.

## Agent Notes

**Why this matters:** This is a MECHANISM claim for the technology-coordination gap thesis (Belief 1). It upgrades the belief from "an observation with empirical support" to "a prediction with economic grounding." If the mechanism is right, it should predict which governance approaches work — and the Theseus governance evidence confirms those predictions.

**What surprised me:** The 95% enterprise AI pilot failure rate (MIT NANDA, from industry briefing) fits this mechanism. Enterprise deployments fail at high rates because verification of AI productivity is itself the hard part — companies can't tell if AI is actually improving performance (METR perception gap). The measurability gap IS the verification gap in action, at corporate scale.

**What I expected but didn't find:** Evidence of voluntary coordination mechanisms that work despite the economic pressure. The closest case would be Anthropic's RSP — but even that failed. A genuine counter-case would require finding a voluntary coordination mechanism in a high-stakes technology domain that maintained commitments despite competitive pressure. I don't have one.

**KB connections:**
- [[technology advances exponentially but coordination mechanisms evolve linearly creating a widening gap]] — this is the Catalini mechanism's economic grounding
- only binding regulation with enforcement teeth changes frontier AI lab behavior — empirical confirmation of the prediction
- mechanism design enables incentive-compatible coordination — the positive implication: coordination IS possible, but only through mechanism design that changes incentives, not through appeals to actor preferences

**Extraction hints:**
- Primary claim: "The technology-coordination gap is economically self-reinforcing because AI execution costs fall to zero while human verification bandwidth remains fixed, creating market equilibria that systematically select for unverified deployment regardless of individual actor intentions."
- Confidence: experimental (mechanism is coherent and has empirical support, but needs more evidence — historical analogues, case studies of verification debt accumulation)
- This could enrich the grounding of technology advances exponentially but coordination mechanisms evolve linearly with a specific economic mechanism
- May also be a standalone claim in grand-strategy domain if the mechanism is novel enough

## Curator Notes

PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[technology advances exponentially but coordination mechanisms evolve linearly creating a widening gap]]

WHY ARCHIVED: Leo's disconfirmation search for Belief 1 produced this mechanism synthesis. The Catalini + Theseus sources were in Theseus's ai-alignment territory. This archive captures the grand-strategy implications that Theseus wouldn't surface.

EXTRACTION HINT: The extractor should focus on the MECHANISM (verification economics) not just the observation (gap widening). The mechanism is what elevates this from description to prediction. Check whether this is novel relative to the existing grounding claims for Belief 1.


## Key Facts
- AI marginal execution cost falling ~10x/year (Catalini)
- 95% enterprise AI pilot failure rate (MIT NANDA)
- Stanford FMTI scores declined 17 points
- Anthropic dropped binding RSP citing competitive pressure
- OpenAI made safety conditional on competitor behavior
- Every voluntary governance mechanism at international scale failed (Theseus Tier 4)
