---
type: conviction
domain: ai-alignment
secondary_domains: [collective-intelligence]
description: "Not a prediction but an observation in progress — AI is already writing and verifying code, the remaining question is scope and timeline not possibility."
summary: "Software production is moving from human-written code with AI assistance to AI-written code with human direction. The bottleneck shifts from typing capacity to specification quality, structured knowledge graphs, and evaluation infrastructure. The transition is observable in current developer workflows, not a forecast."
staked_by: Cory
stake: high
created: 2026-03-07
horizon: "2028"
falsified_by: "AI code generation plateaus at toy problems and fails to handle production-scale systems by 2028"
---

# AI-automated software development is 100 percent certain and will radically change how software is built

Cory's conviction, staked with high confidence on 2026-03-07.

The evidence is already visible: Claude solved a 30-year open mathematical problem (Knuth 2026). AI agents autonomously explored solution spaces with zero human intervention (Aquino-Michaels 2026). AI-generated proofs are formally verified by machine (Morrison 2026). The trajectory from here to automated software development is not speculative — it's interpolation.

The implication: when building capacity is commoditized, the scarce complement becomes *knowing what to build*. Structured knowledge — machine-readable specifications of what matters, why, and how to evaluate results — becomes the critical input to autonomous systems.

---

Relevant Notes:
- [[as AI-automated software development becomes certain the bottleneck shifts from building capacity to knowing what to build making structured knowledge graphs the critical input to autonomous systems]] — the claim this conviction anchors
- [[structured exploration protocols reduce human intervention by 6x because the Residue prompt enabled 5 unguided AI explorations to solve what required 31 human-coached explorations]] — evidence of AI autonomy in complex problem-solving

Topics:
- [[domains/ai-alignment/_map]]
