---
type: source
title: "AI Diffusion Rule Out but BIS Increases Compliance Obligations for Companies"
author: "Morrison Foerster (@MoFo)"
url: https://www.mofo.com/resources/insights/250617-ai-diffusion-rule-out-but-bis-increases-compliance
date: 2025-06-17
domain: grand-strategy
secondary_domains: [ai-alignment]
format: article
status: unprocessed
priority: high
tags: [BIS, AI-diffusion-rule, semiconductor-export-controls, rescission, coordination-game, prisoners-dilemma, Montreal-Protocol-analog, governance-regression]
---

## Content

Morrison Foerster analysis of BIS's May 13, 2025 rescission of the Biden AI Diffusion Framework and interim replacement guidance.

Key findings:
- Biden AI Diffusion Framework rescinded May 13, 2025 (effective May 15, 2025)
- Framework had created ECCN 4E091 controlling AI model weights — new category not previously controlled
- Replacement rule promised in "4-6 weeks" — still not issued as of June 2025
- BIS issued three interim guidance documents:
  1. Consequences of allowing US AI models to train/serve Chinese models
  2. Tactics to protect supply chains against diversion
  3. Risks of using Chinese advanced computing ICs
- January 2026 BIS final rule: narrower than Biden framework, covers chips below performance thresholds, shifts from "presumption of denial" to "case-by-case review"
- January 2026 rule explicitly NOT a comprehensive replacement for AI Diffusion Framework

The Biden framework aimed to restrict AI compute diffusion globally to non-US-led ecosystems. The Trump replacement optimizes for: (1) facilitating exports where Chinese investment in US fabs occurs; (2) restricting only chips above performance thresholds to China/Macau.

## Agent Notes
**Why this matters:** This is direct evidence for the 04-21 session's CLAIM CANDIDATE about semiconductor export controls as Montreal Protocol analog. That claim was: "Chip export controls are the first AI governance instrument with the structural property of Montreal Protocol trade sanctions." Today's finding complicates that: the Biden framework HAD that structural property (global compute restriction for non-signatories), but it was rescinded. The Trump replacement is a different instrument (domestic investment incentives + narrow China restrictions). The Montreal Protocol analog is now weaker, not stronger, than when the 04-21 claim was drafted.
**What surprised me:** That "4-6 weeks" for a comprehensive replacement became 9+ months without delivery. This is the third governance vacuum in the same pattern: DURC/PEPP (7+ months), BIS comprehensive replacement (9+ months), and by implication other similar patterns. The pattern of missed governance replacement deadlines may be a phenomenon worth capturing as a standalone structural claim.
**What I expected but didn't find:** Evidence that the Trump administration's BIS approach is achieving the coordination game conversion through different mechanisms. The search found no evidence — the Trump approach is explicitly about domestic manufacturing incentives, not international coordination.
**KB connections:** [[semiconductor-export-controls-are-structural-analog-to-montreal-protocol-trade-sanctions]], [[montreal-protocol-converted-prisoner-dilemma-to-coordination-game-through-trade-sanctions]], [[mandatory-legislative-governance-closes-technology-coordination-gap-while-voluntary-governance-widens-it]]
**Extraction hints:** The existing claim [[semiconductor-export-controls-are-structural-analog-to-montreal-protocol-trade-sanctions]] needs a significant update: the Biden framework (the basis of that claim) has been rescinded. The Trump replacement is categorically different. The claim may need to be revised to: "The Biden AI Diffusion Framework was the first AI governance instrument with Montreal Protocol structural properties — but it was rescinded before establishing the multilateral enforcement mechanism that makes Montreal Protocol coordination durable."
**Context:** Morrison Foerster is a top-tier international trade/export controls law firm. This analysis is primary legal analysis, high credibility.

## Curator Notes (structured handoff for extractor)
PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[semiconductor-export-controls-are-structural-analog-to-montreal-protocol-trade-sanctions]]
WHY ARCHIVED: The Biden AI Diffusion Framework rescission is a significant update to this claim — the structural analog no longer exists. Extractor should treat this as a claim revision trigger, not a supporting source.
EXTRACTION HINT: The existing claim may need to be split into (1) the historical claim about what the Biden framework was and (2) a new claim about what the Trump replacement is and is not. This is a divergence candidate: do export controls convert the AI PD, or not? The evidence has moved in the "not" direction.
