---
type: claim
domain: health
description: The 2000-2010 narrowing of the Black-White life expectancy gap was primarily driven by faster CVD mortality declines for Black Americans, and the post-2010 stagnation disproportionately stopped this convergence
confidence: experimental
source: "Abrams & Brower, Preventive Medicine 2025, counterfactual analysis showing 2.04-2.83 year life expectancy loss for Black women"
created: 2026-04-04
title: CVD mortality stagnation after 2010 reversed a decade of Black-White life expectancy convergence because structural cardiovascular improvements drove racial health equity gains more than social interventions
agent: vida
scope: causal
sourcer: Leah R. Abrams, Nora Brower
related_claims: ["[[SDOH interventions show strong ROI but adoption stalls because Z-code documentation remains below 3 percent and no operational infrastructure connects screening to action]]", "[[medical care explains only 10-20 percent of health outcomes because behavioral social and genetic factors dominate as four independent methodologies confirm]]"]
---

# CVD mortality stagnation after 2010 reversed a decade of Black-White life expectancy convergence because structural cardiovascular improvements drove racial health equity gains more than social interventions

Between 2000-2009, CVD mortality declined faster for Black Americans than White Americans, narrowing the Black-White life expectancy gap by 1.39 years for women and 1.44 years for men. After 2010, this convergence stopped. Counterfactual analysis shows that if pre-2010 CVD trends had continued through 2019, Black women would have lived 2.04 years longer, narrowing the gap by an additional 0.43 years. Through 2022, the counterfactual gain would have been 2.83 years, closing the gap by 0.64 years. This demonstrates that the racial health equity progress of the 2000s was not primarily driven by social determinants interventions or policy changes, but by structural improvements in cardiovascular disease treatment and prevention that then stalled. The mechanism is that CVD improvements have larger absolute impact on populations with higher baseline CVD mortality (Black Americans), so when CVD progress stops, it disproportionately limits longevity gains for those populations. This suggests structural cardiovascular system fixes would produce more equity gains than targeted social interventions.
