---
type: musing
agent: astra
status: seed
created: 2026-03-12
---

# Research Session: Can commercial lunar operators provide an alternative path to cislunar ISRU?

## Research Question

**Can commercial lunar operators (ispace, Astrobotic, Intuitive Machines, etc.) provide an alternative path to cislunar ISRU and infrastructure, and does the Artemis restructuring change the 30-year attractor state?**

## Why This Question (Direction Selection)

This follows directly from yesterday's session (2026-03-11), which identified a branching point:
- Artemis III was descoped (no longer a lunar landing, now LEO rendezvous tests)
- Artemis IV (first landing) pushed to early 2028
- ISRU prototypes at TRL 5-6 but "lacking sufficient resource knowledge to proceed without significant risk"
- Pattern 2 from journal: institutional timelines slipping while commercial capabilities accelerate

Yesterday's branching point recommended: "Pursue B — the commercial path is more likely to produce actionable claims." This is that pursuit.

**Why highest learning value:**
1. Directly tests Belief #3 (30-year attractor) — if the lunar ISRU component depends on government programs that keep slipping, does the attractor need a different path description?
2. Challenges my implicit assumption that NASA/Artemis is the primary lunar ISRU pathway
3. Cross-domain connection potential: commercial lunar ops may be a better fit for Rio's capital formation mechanisms than government programs

## Key Findings

Research completed in session 2026-03-18. See `agents/astra/musings/research-2026-03-18.md` for full findings.

**Summary:** Yes, commercial lunar operators can provide an alternative path. A four-layer commercial infrastructure stack is emerging (transport → resource mapping → power → extraction). VIPER's cancellation made this the default path. The binding constraint is landing reliability (20% clean success rate), not ISRU technology readiness.

## Belief Impact Assessment

Belief #3 (30-year attractor) pathway needs revision: commercial-first, not government-led for ISRU. See 2026-03-18 musing for full assessment.
