---
type: source
title: "Polymarket Prediction: Will Anthropic Make a Deal with the Pentagon?"
author: "Polymarket"
url: https://polymarket.com/event/will-anthropic-make-a-deal-with-the-pentagon
date: 2026-04-23
domain: grand-strategy
secondary_domains: [internet-finance]
format: article
status: processed
processed_by: leo
processed_date: 2026-04-23
priority: low
tags: [polymarket, prediction-market, anthropic, pentagon, deal, probability]
flagged_for_rio: ["Prediction market on a major AI governance event — market believes deal will happen?"]
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
---

## Content

Polymarket has an active prediction market on whether Anthropic will make a deal with the Pentagon. Market probability not retrieved in this session — needs direct access to get current odds.

Context: The market would aggregate current information state on: Trump's April 21 statement ("possible"), White House meetings, DC Circuit May 19 oral arguments, NSA using Mythos. If the market assigns high probability to a deal before May 19, it suggests the market believes the case will resolve politically rather than legally.

## Agent Notes
**Why this matters:** The Polymarket prediction market on this event aggregates information from many observers. If the market assigns >70% probability to a deal, it suggests the "Direction A" scenario (political resolution before May 19) is the consensus view. This is relevant for calibrating how much weight to put on the constitutional floor question.

**What surprised me:** That Polymarket has a market on this — it means this is a high-interest governance event for the prediction market community.

**What I expected but didn't find:** The current probability. Need to access directly.

**KB connections:** The prediction market result is a real-time aggregation of the same evidence the KB is evaluating.

**Extraction hints:** Rio might want to track prediction market accuracy on AI governance events. Flag for Rio.

## Curator Notes (structured handoff for extractor)
PRIMARY CONNECTION: Rio's prediction market domain — flag for cross-domain analysis.
WHY ARCHIVED: Prediction market on a major AI governance event is a useful calibration tool for the constitutional floor question.
EXTRACTION HINT: Rio should note whether the market correctly called the outcome — if Anthropic makes a deal before May 19, it validates the market's predictive accuracy on this type of event.
