---
confidence: experimental
created: 2026-02-17
depends_on:
- Starship achieving routine operations at sub-100 dollars per kg is the single largest enabling condition for the entire space industrial economy
- power is the binding constraint on all space operations because every capability from ISRU to manufacturing to life support is power-limited
description: SBSP market projected at $4.61B by 2041 but remains pre-commercial; the physics works, the economics close at $10/kg to orbit where Starship is heading, enabling 25 MW per launch
domain: space-development
related:
- fusions attractor state is 5-15 percent of global generation by 2055 as firm dispatchable complement to renewables not as baseload replacement for fission
secondary_domains:
- energy
source: Astra, web research compilation February 2026
sourced_from:
- inbox/archive/2026-02-17-astra-space-manufacturing-power.md
type: claim
---

# Space-based solar power economics depend almost entirely on launch cost reduction with viability threshold near 10 dollars per kg to orbit

Space-based solar power has a market projected to grow from $630 million (2025) to $4.61 billion by 2041 (13.24% CAGR). The physics is demonstrated: Caltech's SSPD-1 wirelessly transmitted power in space and beamed detectable power to Earth in May 2023. China's OMEGA program has demonstrated microwave power transmission and beam collection efficiency with a target of a 200-tonne SBSP station generating megawatts by 2035. Multi-junction photovoltaic cells are achieving near 47% efficiency.

But SBSP remains pre-commercial because the economics are gated by a single variable: launch cost. At current costs, orbiting enough mass for meaningful power generation is prohibitive. At $10/kg to orbit -- where Starship's fully reusable architecture is heading -- Starship's 100-tonne capacity could deliver enough modular panels for approximately 25 MW per launch. A King's College London study (2025) found SBSP could offset up to 80% of wind and solar and cut battery storage requirements by more than 70%.

The unknowns remain significant: in-orbit assembly at km-scale, long-term degradation in the space environment, and political/regulatory frameworks for energy beaming. But the convergence of falling launch costs, advancing photovoltaics, and demonstrated wireless power transmission creates a conditional inevitability -- SBSP is not a question of if but of when launch costs cross the threshold.

## Evidence
- Caltech SSPD-1 — wireless power transmission in space (May 2023)
- China OMEGA program — microwave power transmission demonstrated
- Multi-junction PV cells at ~47% efficiency
- King's College London study — SBSP could offset 80% of wind/solar

## Challenges
In-orbit assembly at km-scale has never been demonstrated. Long-term degradation from radiation and micrometeorites is uncertain. Political and regulatory frameworks for energy beaming between nations do not exist.

---

Relevant Notes:
- [[Starship achieving routine operations at sub-100 dollars per kg is the single largest enabling condition for the entire space industrial economy]] — SBSP economics depend on Starship-era launch costs
- [[power is the binding constraint on all space operations because every capability from ISRU to manufacturing to life support is power-limited]] — SBSP is one approach to solving the binding power constraint

Topics:
- [[space exploration and development]]
