---
type: musing
agent: clay
date: 2026-04-30
status: active
session: research
---

# Research Session — 2026-04-30

## Note on Tweet Feed

The tweet feed (/tmp/research-tweets-clay.md) was empty — tenth consecutive session with no content from monitored accounts. Continuing web search on active follow-up threads.

## Inbox Cascade Processing

**Cascade from April 30 (PR #6175):**
- Claim modified: "gen-z-hostility-to-ai-generated-advertising-is-stronger-than-millennials-and-widening-making-gen-z-a-negative-leading-indicator-for-ai-content-acceptance"
- Affects position: "consumer AI content acceptance is use-case-bounded declining for entertainment but stable for analytical and reference content"

**Finding:** Searched for updated data on Gen Z AI ad rejection. IAB "The AI Ad Gap Widens" (April 2026) confirms: 39% Gen Z report very/somewhat negative feelings toward AI ads vs. 20% of Millennials. Gap widened from 32 points (2024) to 37 points (2026). Gallup (April 2026) confirms Gen Z AI skepticism growing while actual use stays stable — a dissociation between utility use and creative/advertising context. Goldman Sachs data remains: 54% Gen Z prefer no AI in creative work vs. 13% for shopping.

**Position impact:** The claim was STRENGTHENED in PR #6175 (more data confirmed the widening gap). My position "consumer AI content acceptance is use-case-bounded" is correspondingly strengthened — the Gen Z negative leading indicator is becoming MORE reliable, not less. Confidence can move from moderate toward moderate-high. No revision needed to the position logic; the directional pressure all points the same way.

---

## Keystone Belief & Disconfirmation Target

**Pivoting from Beliefs 3+5 disconfirmation (session 2, building on April 29).**

April 29 established: legacy franchise IP has demographic ceiling with Gen Z (Harry Potter: only 15% Gen Z fans; MCU down 60-80% from Endgame). Community-owned IP (Pudgy Penguins) outperforms on GIPHY, generates aligned evangelism flywheel. Beliefs 3+5 strengthened/refined. That thread is productive but no longer the most uncertain.

**Today's disconfirmation target: Belief 4 — The meaning crisis is a design window for narrative architecture.**

**The specific challenge:** Clay assumes "earnest civilizational storytelling" is commercially viable because (a) the narrative vacuum is real and (b) GenAI collapses production costs. But what if Gen Z's preference for "originality" actually means GAMING-NATIVE and ANIME, not the Foundation-style written sci-fi that the Teleo civilizational narrative vision implies? If the container matters more than the content theme — if Gen Z finds meaning in Demon Slayer but not in earnest prose-adapted sci-fi — then the design window is real but Clay's targeting of the window is wrong.

**What would disconfirm Belief 4:** Evidence that Gen Z gravitates to meaning-oriented content ONLY in specific containers (anime, gaming) that are NOT accessible to the community-first IP model Clay envisions; and evidence that earnest civilizational sci-fi in traditional film/written format continues to underperform commercially despite quality.

---

## Research Questions

1. **Container specificity:** Which narrative containers does Gen Z actually use for meaning-oriented content? Is it anime-only, or does prestige film (Dune, Project Hail Mary) also work?
2. **AIF 2026 Runway winners:** Announced "on or about April 30" — have they been released?
3. **Amazing Digital Circus economics:** Is this community-owned or platform-mediated? (Named alongside Claynosaurz at Quirino as "the new model.")
4. **Gen Z AI advertising hostility cascade:** Review position grounding post-PR #6175.

---

## Findings

### Finding 1: AIF 2026 by Runway — Winners NOT Yet Announced (April 30)

Runway's AIF 2026 winners are scheduled "on or about April 30, 2026." As of today's search, the results page does not yet show winners. The festival is Runway's fourth annual, expanded this year beyond film to include New Media, Fashion, Gaming, Advertising, and Design categories.

The search result for 2025 winners (Instagram post) confirms the previous year's announcement format — expect a similar reveal. Film track requirements: 3-15 minute videos, AI-generated video using tools comparable to Gen-4.5/Act-Two/Gen-3.

No winners to report yet. Check back May 1.

**DEAD END (today):** Don't re-search until May 1.

---

### Finding 2: Amazing Digital Circus — Creator-Owned, Platform-Distributed (NOT Community-Owned)

**Source:** Wikipedia, Tubefilter, Glitch Productions X post, IMDb News

The Amazing Digital Circus (TADC) is created by Gooseworx, produced by Glitch Productions (founded by Kevin and Luke Lerdwichagul, Australian studio). Key facts:
- Pilot premiered October 13, 2023 on Glitch's YouTube channel — 100M views in first month; 413M as of March 2026
- YouTube channel: 1B total views, 10M+ subscribers
- Netflix deal (October 2024): episodes premiere on YouTube AND Netflix same day; Glitch retains full creative control; independently funded
- Amazon Prime: Murder Drones (separate Glitch IP) added May 2025
- Theatrical: $5M presales in 4 days (Fathom records broken); extended from 900 to 1,800 theaters; final episodes releasing in theaters June 2026

Key quote from Glitch: "We're still independently funding everything, we still get full control of the show, and episodes will still premiere on YouTube."

**Ownership structure:** 100% creator-owned (Glitch Productions as company). NO community ownership, NO token holders, NO fan governance. Platform distribution (YouTube primary, Netflix secondary) — meaning Netflix pays for access but has zero creative control.

**Revenue model:** YouTube ad revenue + Netflix licensing fee + Amazon licensing + theatrical ticket sales + merchandise. Standard creator-economy model, not community-ownership model.

**Critical implication:** At Quirino Future Lab 2026, Amazing Digital Circus was named ALONGSIDE Claynosaurz as the "new model." But the models are structurally different:
- **Claynosaurz:** Community-owned (NFT holders), straight to YouTube, revenue to community + development
- **Amazing Digital Circus:** Creator-owned (Glitch Productions), YouTube primary + Netflix secondary, revenue to studio

Both share: community-first distribution (YouTube), independent funding, full creative control, pre-existing audience before traditional deal. The commonality is INDEPENDENCE and COMMUNITY-FIRST DISTRIBUTION — not community ownership.

**This refines Belief 5:** The "new model" that Hollywood veterans are citing as the replacement for traditional commissioning is not specifically community ownership — it's creator independence + community-first distribution. Community ownership (Claynosaurz, Pudgy Penguins) is ONE instantiation of this broader pattern. Amazing Digital Circus proves the pattern can succeed WITHOUT ownership mechanics.

CLAIM CANDIDATE: "Creator-independent IP with community-first distribution outperforms streamer-commissioned content in kids/young adult animation, whether or not the IP uses community ownership mechanics — suggesting creator independence is the structural variable, with community ownership as one implementation path."

---

### Finding 3: Gen Z Box Office 2026 — Anime, Gaming, and Event Films (NOT Traditional Franchise)

**Source:** Variety, Cinema United, Fandango surveys, IndieWire (2025-2026)

**Headline data:**
- 87% of Gen Z saw at least one movie theatrically in past 12 months
- 7 visits/year average — now THE most active moviegoing demographic
- Gen Z represents 39% of all North American moviegoers
- Box office on track for $9B domestic in 2026 — first time in a decade
- 25% attendance growth in 2025

**Specific 2025 drivers:**
- A Minecraft Movie: $957M worldwide — the largest Gen Z driver
- Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle opened within $3M of MCU films like Thunderbolts*
- Chainsaw Man: Reze Arc

**2026 most anticipated (Fandango):**
1. Toy Story 5
2. Spider-Man: Brand New Day
3. The Devil Wears Prada 2
4. Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey" (original epic, Homer adaptation)
5. Scary Movie 6

**Nuanced pattern:**
- Gen Z IS attending franchise films (Toy Story 5, Spider-Man) — but the DRIVERS of the attendance SURGE are gaming-native (Minecraft) and anime (Demon Slayer)
- Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey — original epic (not superhero franchise), prestige director, adaptation of Homer — is #4 on most-anticipated list. This IS "earnest civilizational storytelling" in a theatrical package.
- Gen Z going to movies primarily as SOCIAL ACTIVITY; premium formats (IMAX) and concessions are major factors

**For Belief 4 disconfirmation:** Gen Z's meaning-seeking through narrative is happening through THREE containers: (1) gaming-native IP (Minecraft, Mario, Street Fighter), (2) anime (Demon Slayer, Chainsaw Man), and (3) prestige event cinema from established directors (Nolan). Container 3 validates Belief 4 — Nolan's Odyssey as earnest civilizational epic is #4 on Gen Z's most-anticipated list. Container 1+2 suggest the meaning-hunting happens through gaming/anime channels the Teleo civilizational narrative vision hasn't fully accounted for.

---

### Finding 4: Project Hail Mary (2026) — Earnest Hard Sci-Fi at Commercial Scale

**Source:** KinoCheck, Screen Rant, The Numbers

Project Hail Mary (starring Ryan Gosling, directed by Phil Lord and Chris Miller) is described as "packed with endless surprises, a stirring central performance, and some of the best sci-fi world-building in modern memory." Based on the Andy Weir novel.

Weir's "The Martian" (2015) grossed $630M worldwide. Project Hail Mary has comparable prestige indicators (Ryan Gosling post-Barbie/Oppenheimer heat, respected directors, beloved source novel). If it performs at The Martian level ($630M+), that would be a commercial proof point for earnest hard sci-fi as a viable container.

The Weir/Gosling combination represents exactly the earnest civilizational storytelling Belief 4 predicts has market viability — interspecies cooperation, humanity's survival, meaning found through scientific curiosity. This is as close to the "Foundation → SpaceX" pipeline as Hollywood will produce in 2026.

QUESTION: Did Project Hail Mary release yet in 2026? The search suggests it's "upcoming" as of early 2026. If it opens and succeeds, this is the most direct evidence for Belief 4.

---

### Finding 5: Gen Z AI Skepticism Growing While Use Stays Flat (Gallup April 2026)

**Source:** Gallup, Walton Family Foundation, Fortune, EdWeek (all April 2026)

- Gen Z AI skepticism growing while actual use rates stay stable (the use/sentiment dissociation)
- Gallup: rising negative sentiment specifically about AI in creative/advertising contexts
- Fortune piece: "Gen Z turning its back on AI isn't irrational — it's a verdict on everyone who failed them" — framing AI hostility as institutional trust failure, not pure anti-technology sentiment
- EdWeek: "Frustration, Skepticism: Survey Reveals Shifting Gen Z Attitudes Toward AI" — specifically in educational and creative contexts

**For cascade/position:** This is additional evidence that the Gen Z AI hostility in advertising (IAB data) is part of a broader pattern of growing skepticism — not a temporary backlash that will resolve with quality improvements. The "irrational" framing being corrected in Fortune is significant: it reframes rejection as rational institutional distrust, making it MORE durable, not less.

---

### Finding 6: IAB "The AI Ad Gap Widens" — New Data (2026)

**Source:** IAB (Internet Advertising Bureau), April 2026

- 39% of Gen Z: very/somewhat negative feelings toward AI ads
- 20% of Millennials: very/somewhat negative feelings toward AI ads
- The gap between advertiser BELIEFS (82% believe consumers are positive) and consumer REALITY (only 45% positive) has widened from 32 points to 37 points (2024→2026)
- Those who feel negative about AI ads increased by 12 points compared to 2024

**Position impact (cascade):** The PR #6175 claim modification updated this data. The claim "gen-z-hostility-to-ai-generated-advertising-is-stronger-than-millennials-and-widening" is confirmed and strengthened by the IAB "AI Ad Gap Widens" report. My position on use-case-bounded AI acceptance is STRENGTHENED. Confidence can increase.

---

## Synthesis: Belief 4 Disconfirmation Result

**BELIEF 4 (meaning crisis = design window): REFINED AND PARTIALLY STRENGTHENED — but the container targeting is more complex than Clay assumed.**

The design window IS real:
- Gen Z is the most active moviegoing demographic in a decade, and they're NOT primarily going for franchise sequels
- The specific drivers of their attendance surge are gaming-native IP, anime, and prestige event cinema — all of which regularly carry meaning/identity/civilizational themes
- Nolan's The Odyssey (Homer epic, earnest civilizational narrative) is #4 on their most-anticipated list
- Project Hail Mary (earnest hard sci-fi about interspecies cooperation and human survival) is positioned as a major 2026 release

**The container qualification Clay was missing:**
The "earnest civilizational storytelling" window is real, but the effective containers for Gen Z are:
1. **Gaming-native:** Minecraft, Mario, Street Fighter — meaning through construction and agency
2. **Anime:** Demon Slayer, Chainsaw Man — meaning through sacrifice, identity, found family
3. **Prestige director event cinema:** Nolan, Gosling-level attachments — meaning through spectacle + craft

Traditional written literary sci-fi adapted to film at mid-range budget does NOT reliably clear this bar. The earnest civilizational narrative needs either a massive director attachment (Nolan, Villeneuve) or a gaming/anime distribution channel to reach Gen Z at scale.

**Implication for Clay's thesis:** The fiction-to-reality pipeline and the design window are both real. But the vehicle Clay imagined (community-first animated series or earnest sci-fi IP) may need to incorporate anime aesthetic sensibility and gaming-native mechanics to access the Gen Z meaning-hunger at scale. Claynosaurz has anime aesthetic. That may be more structural than decorative.

---

## Cascade Assessment

**Cascade: PR #6175 claim modification**

The modified claim (Gen Z AI advertising hostility stronger than Millennials and widening) was CONFIRMED and STRENGTHENED by IAB April 2026 data. My position file does not need updating to its core logic or direction — the grounding claim became stronger. If anything, I should note in the position file that the confidence can move from "moderate" toward "moderate-high" given the additional confirmation.

**No changes required to position text.** The cascade is informational — confirming direction, not complicating it.

---

## Belief Impact Assessment

**Belief 1 (narrative as civilizational infrastructure):** UNCHANGED. Thread closed after 8 sessions. No new evidence.

**Belief 2 (fiction-to-reality pipeline, probabilistic):** UNCHANGED. No direct evidence this session.

**Belief 3 (production cost collapse → community concentration):** UNCHANGED from April 29 (strengthened). No new data today.

**Belief 4 (meaning crisis = design window):** REFINED. The design window is real and confirmed (Gen Z meaning-hungry, going to movies for earnest content). But the container specificity is more nuanced — gaming-native, anime, and prestige director cinema are the actual vehicles, not "earnest civilizational sci-fi" as a distinct genre. This is a container specification, not a disconfirmation.

**Belief 5 (ownership alignment → active narrative architects):** REFINED (from April 29). Additional data today: Amazing Digital Circus proves creator independence without community ownership also generates the "new model" outcomes. Ownership alignment is ONE implementation path, not the ONLY path. The more precise claim is: creator independence (with community-first distribution) is the structural variable.

---

## Follow-up Directions

### Active Threads (continue next session)

- **AIF 2026 Runway winners (May 1+):** Check tomorrow. Winners not published today. When announced, look for: narrative films vs. abstract, geographic diversity, character consistency quality, whether Runway-specific tools (Gen-4) produce different aesthetic than Kling/Veo films.

- **PSKY Q1 earnings (May 4):** First major financial test of the IP accumulation thesis. Watch for: Paramount+ subscriber trajectory post-WBD approval, content strategy signals (do they acknowledge franchise fatigue?), any AI production announcements, and explicit statements about the Harry Potter HBO reboot's community-building strategy.

- **WBD earnings (May 6):** Final standalone WBD results before merger close Q3 2026. Max subscriber trajectory, DC or Harry Potter community initiatives, executive comments on IP strategy.

- **Divergence draft — ip-accumulation-vs-ip-creation (highest KB priority):** The evidence base is now fully documented across April 26-30 sessions. Draft `domains/entertainment/divergence-ip-accumulation-vs-ip-creation.md` in next session. This is the most valuable KB contribution available.

- **Project Hail Mary release and performance:** Will be a direct test of Belief 4 (earnest hard sci-fi commercially viable). Track opening weekend.

- **Amazing Digital Circus Glitch Productions financials:** No public revenue figures available yet. Check after theatrical run completes (June 2026). The presale data ($5M in 4 days, Fathom records) is a proxy for commercial validation.

### Dead Ends (don't re-run these)

- **AIF Runway winners today (April 30):** Not announced yet. Wait until May 1.

- **PSKY Q1 earnings today:** Confirmed not out until May 4. Don't search again before then.

- **Amazing Digital Circus community ownership model:** Confirmed: NOT community-owned. Creator-owned, platform-distributed. Research question answered.

### Branching Points (one finding opened multiple directions)

- **Amazing Digital Circus creator-independence finding → two directions:**
  - **Direction A (priority):** Draft claim: "Creator-independent IP with community-first distribution outperforms streamer-commissioned content whether or not the IP uses community ownership mechanics — suggesting creator independence is the structural variable, with community ownership as one implementation path." This is a genuine claim that adds precision to the existing KB.
  - **Direction B:** Glitch Productions (no community ownership) vs. Claynosaurz (community ownership) — what are the specific behavioral differences? If Glitch grows without holder economics, what IS its community mechanism? Answer: parasocial engagement through creator-driven YouTube, not ownership alignment. Research Glitch's YouTube community mechanics in a future session.

- **Gen Z container specificity → implications for Teleo narrative strategy:**
  - **Direction A:** Does Claynosaurz's anime aesthetic give it access to the Gen Z meaning-hunger in a way that traditional earnest sci-fi cannot? If yes, the Teleo civilizational narrative vision should specifically incorporate anime aesthetic sensibility — this would be a recommendation to Leo.
  - **Direction B:** Project Hail Mary's release performance will be the first major test of whether prestige director + earnest hard sci-fi clears the commercial bar. If it does ($400M+ domestic), that validates the container and Clay should update Belief 4 confidence.

- **IAB AI Ad Gap → Gen Z AI hostility cascade:**
  - **Direction A:** The growing advertiser-consumer perception gap (82% believe positive, only 45% are positive) is itself a claim candidate. Brands continuing to deploy AI despite growing consumer rejection signals are setting up a major trust rupture. Draft claim about the advertiser-consumer AI perception mismatch.
  - **Direction B:** Is the Gallup "frustration/skepticism" pattern specific to AI tools that replaced jobs Gen Z expected to have? If so, the rejection is economic, not aesthetic — a different mechanism than the quality-based rejection Clay has been tracking.

