---
type: entity
entity_type: company
name: "Theia Research"
domain: internet-finance
handles: ["@TheiaResearch"]
status: active
tracked_by: rio
created: 2026-03-11
last_updated: 2026-03-11
founded: 2024-01-01
category: "Onchain liquid token fund"
stage: growth
key_metrics:
  metadao_otc_total: "$1.63M across 3 OTC trades (Jan 2025: $500K, Jul 2025: $630K, Jan 2025: $500K)"
  meta_tokens_held: "1,070+ META tokens via OTC"
  investment_approach: "Kelly Criterion at 20% of full Kelly, Bayesian updating"
competitors: []
built_on: ["Solana", "Ethereum"]
tags: ["institutional-investor", "metadao-ecosystem", "internet-finance-thesis", "token-governance"]
---

# Theia Research

## Overview
Onchain liquid token fund managed by Felipe Montealegre. Invests in companies building the "Internet Financial System" — taking large positions in small-cap tokens through structured OTC deals with 2-4 year investment horizons. The most significant institutional investor in the MetaDAO ecosystem, holding 1,070+ META tokens acquired at premiums to market price. Coined the "Token Problem" framework (lemon market dynamics in token markets) and published the Token Transparency Framework with Blockworks.

## Current State
- **Fund structure**: Theia Blockchain Partners Master Fund LP
- **Investment thesis**: Internet Financial System replacing permissioned, siloed traditional finance. Five advantages: free capital flows, improved property rights, financial accessibility, operational efficiency, faster GDP growth.
- **MetaDAO position**: Largest known institutional holder. Holds MetaDAO specifically for "prioritizing investors over teams" — the competitive moat that futarchy creates. Three OTC trades totaling $1.63M, all at premiums to spot.
- **AI integration**: Uses LLMs as "backbone of process improvements." Internal dashboards consolidating Discord, Notion, GitHub. Planning "AI agents that can perform discrete tasks" for competitive analysis.
- **Research output**: Published "The Investment Manager of the Future" (Feb 2026), arguing LLMs shift investment from economies of scale to economies of edge. 292 bookmarks — most saved piece in its batch. Also published internet finance thesis with 50-100bps GDP growth projection.

## Timeline
- **2025-01-03** — First MetaDAO OTC trade: $500K for META tokens
- **2025-01-07** — Published internet finance thesis (IFS as better financial system for 8B people)
- **2025-01-27** — Second OTC trade: $500K for 370 META at $1,350/token
- **2025-07-21** — Third OTC trade: $630K for 700 META at $900/token (38% premium to spot). Funds used to extend MetaDAO runway + legal advisory.
- **2026-02-12** — Published 2025 Annual Letter. Five-phase investment loop: moat analysis → multiples → prediction → Kelly sizing → Bayesian updating. Noah Goldberg promoted to equity partner, Thomas Bautista hired.
- **2026-02-17** — Published "The Investment Manager of the Future." LLMs invert 80/20 ratio of execution vs analysis.

## Competitive Position
- **Unique positioning**: Only known institutional fund explicitly building investment thesis around futarchy governance as a moat
- **Token governance focus**: Launched Token Transparency Framework with Blockworks. Describes "Lemon Problem in Token Markets" — the structural issue of quality tokens being indistinguishable from scams
- **Strategic value to MetaDAO**: OTC trades funded legal/regulatory review, extending ecosystem credibility beyond pure speculation
- **Economies of edge thesis**: Argues 5 high-agency analysts with LLMs replace 100 junior staff — structural case for why small, domain-expert investment entities (Living Agents) become viable

## Investment Thesis
Theia validates the Living Capital model — a sophisticated institutional investor using rigorous frameworks (Kelly Criterion, Bayesian updating, Helmer's 7 Powers) to allocate into futarchy-governed tokens. Their "economies of edge" thesis is the structural argument for why Living Capital vehicles work now: LLMs collapse the 80% execution overhead that forced funds to accumulate AUM. If Theia demonstrates persistent alpha from this approach, it becomes the reference case for agentic investment management.

**Thesis status:** TRACKING (not an investment target — a validation signal for the Living Capital model)

## Relationship to KB
- [[LLMs shift investment management from economies of scale to economies of edge because AI collapses the analyst labor cost that forced funds to accumulate AUM rather than generate alpha]] — Theia's core contribution to the KB
- [[internet finance generates 50 to 100 basis points of additional annual GDP growth by unlocking capital allocation to previously inaccessible assets and eliminating intermediation friction]] — Theia's macro thesis
- [[publishing investment analysis openly before raising capital inverts hedge fund secrecy because transparency attracts domain-expert LPs who can independently verify the thesis]] — Theia exemplifies this model
- [[futarchy-governed entities are structurally not securities because prediction market participation replaces the concentrated promoter effort that the Howey test requires]] — Theia funded MetaDAO's legal advisory to investigate this question

---

Relevant Entities:
- [[metadao]] — largest institutional investor
- [[proph3t]] — founder of MetaDAO, primary counterparty
- [[nallok]] — MetaDAO operator, OTC trade counterparty

Topics:
- [[internet finance and decision markets]]
