---
description: 47 percent returns in H1 2025 could be differentiated insight or concentrated long exposure to the hottest sector in a decade and the structural pattern cannot distinguish the two until adversity tests conviction
type: claim
domain: livingip
created: 2026-03-05
confidence: likely
source: "Morningstar, Fortune Oct 2025, LessWrong June 2025"
---

# one year of outperformance is insufficient evidence to distinguish alpha from leveraged beta because Cathie Wood Burry and Aschenbrenner all looked brilliant at the one-year mark

Situational Awareness LP returned 47% after fees in H1 2025 against 6% for the S&P 500. Impressive. But consider the base rate:

- **Cathie Wood (ARKK):** +153% in 2020. By 2022: -67%, worst-performing fund family per Morningstar, $14.3B in destroyed shareholder value
- **Michael Burry (Scion Capital):** +489% total return by 2008. But by 2025, shut down the fund warning AI stocks are the next bubble
- **Bill Miller (Legg Mason Value Trust):** Beat the S&P 500 for 15 consecutive years. Then catastrophically underperformed during 2008-2009

The structural question: is 47% in H1 2025 evidence of differentiated insight, or is it what happens when you take concentrated long positions in AI infrastructure during the biggest AI investment boom in history?

Since [[teleological investing is Bayesian reasoning applied to technology streams because attractor state analysis provides the prior and market evidence updates the posterior]], the correct Bayesian approach treats one year of returns as weak evidence. The prior probability that any concentrated thematic fund outperforms during a sector boom is high — it's nearly tautological. The update from 47% should be small because the likelihood under both hypotheses (genuine alpha vs leveraged beta) is similar.

The real test has not happened yet. Genuine alpha reveals itself during adversity:
- Can the thesis survive a sector-wide correction?
- Will the manager hold through drawdowns or capitulate?
- Do the concentrated positions outperform during the specific conditions the thesis predicts?

Burry held for two years while his thesis appeared wrong. That conviction under adversity — not his eventual returns — was the evidence of alpha. Cathie Wood held through adversity too, but conviction without updating is stubbornness, not alpha. The distinction becomes clear only in retrospect.

Since [[industry transitions produce speculative overshoot because correct identification of the attractor state attracts capital faster than the knowledge embodiment lag can absorb it]], SA LP's $225M-to-$5.52B growth in one year may itself be evidence of overshoot. The fund's AUM growth (2,353% in one year) is capital flowing toward a thesis, and the thesis says capital should flow toward AI infrastructure. This is recursive — the fund's success is evidence that the sector is hot, which is the sector the fund is long.

This is not a prediction that Aschenbrenner will fail. It is an epistemological claim: the evidence available at the one-year mark is structurally insufficient to distinguish genius from timing.

---

Relevant Notes:
- [[the Cathie Wood failure mode shows that transparent thesis plus concentrated bets plus early outperformance is structurally identical whether the outcome is spectacular success or catastrophic failure]] -- the primary case study for why early outperformance is inconclusive
- [[teleological investing is Bayesian reasoning applied to technology streams because attractor state analysis provides the prior and market evidence updates the posterior]] -- the Bayesian frame for evaluating return evidence
- [[industry transitions produce speculative overshoot because correct identification of the attractor state attracts capital faster than the knowledge embodiment lag can absorb it]] -- the AUM growth itself may be overshoot
- [[Situational Awareness LP converted a 165-page thesis into a 5.5 billion dollar fund in 18 months by publishing differentiated analysis before raising capital]] -- the fund being evaluated

Topics:
- [[attractor dynamics]]
- [[teleological-economics overview]]
