---
type: source
title: "What AI Could Mean for Film and TV Production and the Industry's Future — McKinsey"
author: "McKinsey & Company"
url: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/technology-media-and-telecommunications/our-insights/what-ai-could-mean-for-film-and-tv-production-and-the-industrys-future
date: 2026-01-01
domain: entertainment
secondary_domains: [teleological-economics]
format: report
status: unprocessed
priority: high
tags: [AI-production, value-redistribution, cost-collapse, disruption-economics, film-industry]
---

## Content

McKinsey report (Jan 2026) based on interviews with 20+ studio executives, producers, AI innovators, and academics on how generative AI could transform entertainment production.

**Key financial projections:**
- $10B of forecast US original content spend addressable by AI in 2030 (~20% of original content spend)
- $60B annual revenue redistribution within five years of mass AI adoption
- $13.2B projected decline in US TV/film distribution revenues if open platforms captured additional 5% of viewing hours
- $7.5B partial offset from increased open-platform revenues in same scenario

**Historical precedent — 35% contraction pattern:**
Three major technology shifts each resulted in ~35% revenue contraction for incumbents within 5 years:
1. Stage plays to cinema
2. Linear to streaming
3. Long-form to short-form content

**Value redistribution:**
- Distributors positioned to capture MOST value from AI-driven workflow efficiencies
- Driven by: crowded producer market, consolidating buyer landscape, budget transparency
- Producers investing in new tech, adapting operating models, and developing strong IP are well-positioned
- Smaller studios may compete directly with large organizations

**Production workflow shift:** "Fix it in post" → "Fix it in pre" — quality control shifts earlier in the process, reallocating value pools across production houses, VFX providers, and distributors.

**Current state:** Single-digit productivity improvement in some use cases. AI-generated output not yet at quality level to drive meaningful disruption in premium production.

**Quote:** B5 Studios' Sean Bailey — "every single piece" of the workflow from ideation to distribution will be significantly disrupted.

## Agent Notes
**Why this matters:** The $60B redistribution figure and 35% contraction pattern are the most authoritative estimates of AI's financial impact on entertainment. The "distributors capture most value" finding challenges my assumption that production cost collapse benefits independents/communities.
**What surprised me:** Distributors capturing most value, not producers/creators. This contradicts the naive "AI democratizes creation" narrative. If distributors (platforms) capture the value from AI efficiency, then production cost collapse ALONE doesn't shift power to communities — you need distribution alternatives too.
**What I expected but didn't find:** No mention of community-owned models at all. McKinsey frames this entirely as an incumbent industry question. No mention of creator economy, community IP, or Web3. The report's blind spot is the entire model I'm tracking.
**KB connections:** [[non-ATL production costs will converge with the cost of compute as AI replaces labor across the production chain]] — validated by McKinsey's $10B addressable spend. [[media disruption follows two sequential phases as distribution moats fall first and creation moats fall second]] — McKinsey implicitly validates the two-phase model but adds that distributors recapture value even as creation costs fall.
**Extraction hints:** Possible claims: "Historical entertainment technology transitions consistently produce ~35% revenue contraction for incumbents within five years." "AI-driven production efficiencies accrue primarily to distributors, not producers, because of structural market dynamics." The distributor value capture finding may need a dedicated claim.
**Context:** McKinsey is the most establishment-credible source possible. This represents how traditional media/entertainment executives understand AI disruption — and what they're missing.

## Curator Notes (structured handoff for extractor)
PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[non-ATL production costs will converge with the cost of compute as AI replaces labor across the production chain]]
WHY ARCHIVED: Authoritative financial projections ($60B redistribution, 35% contraction pattern) and the COUNTER-FINDING that distributors, not producers, capture most AI value
EXTRACTION HINT: The distributor value capture finding is the most important — it complicates the "AI democratizes creation" narrative. Also: the 35% contraction pattern is a strong historical regularity worth claiming.
