---
type: claim
domain: teleological-economics
description: "Epistemological claim about investment evaluation: short-horizon outperformance is structurally ambiguous because the likelihood of strong returns under both 'genuine alpha' and 'leveraged sector exposure' hypotheses is similar during booms — adversity is the only reliable test"
confidence: likely
source: "rio, derived from Aschenbrenner SA LP case study (47% H1 2025), Cathie Wood/ARK Invest (Morningstar), Michael Burry/Scion Capital, Bill Miller/Legg Mason. Fortune Oct 2025, Morningstar fund analysis."
created: 2026-03-07
secondary_domains: [internet-finance]
---

# One year of outperformance is insufficient evidence to distinguish alpha from leveraged beta because concentrated thematic funds nearly always outperform during sector booms

Situational Awareness LP returned 47% after fees in H1 2025 against 6% for the S&P 500. The base rate for concentrated thematic outperformance during sector booms makes this structurally ambiguous:

- **Cathie Wood (ARKK):** +153% in 2020. By 2022: -67%, worst-performing fund family per Morningstar, $14.3B in destroyed shareholder value.
- **Michael Burry (Scion Capital):** +489% total return by 2008. Then shut down his fund in 2025 warning AI stocks are the next bubble.
- **Bill Miller (Legg Mason Value Trust):** Beat the S&P 500 for 15 consecutive years. Catastrophically underperformed 2008-2009.

Since [[teleological investing is Bayesian reasoning applied to technology streams because attractor state analysis provides the prior and market evidence updates the posterior]], the correct Bayesian approach treats one year of returns as weak evidence. The prior probability that any concentrated thematic fund outperforms during a sector boom is high — nearly tautological. The likelihood ratio (P(47% | genuine alpha) / P(47% | leveraged beta)) is close to 1 during the boom phase, producing minimal posterior update.

**Adversity is the only reliable discriminator.** Genuine alpha reveals itself when:
- The thesis survives a sector-wide correction while leveraged beta collapses
- The manager holds through drawdowns with reasoned conviction rather than capitulating or stubbornly refusing to update
- Concentrated positions outperform during the specific conditions the thesis predicts, not just during general sector enthusiasm

Burry held for two years while his thesis appeared wrong — that conviction under adversity was evidence of alpha. Cathie Wood held through adversity too, but conviction without updating is stubbornness, not alpha. The distinction becomes clear only in retrospect. Aschenbrenner has not been tested by adversity.

Since [[industry transitions produce speculative overshoot because correct identification of the attractor state attracts capital faster than the knowledge embodiment lag can absorb it]], SA LP's $225M-to-$5.52B growth (2,353% AUM increase in one year) may itself be evidence of overshoot. The fund's growth IS capital flowing toward the thesis, and the thesis says capital should flow toward AI infrastructure — a recursive loop where the fund's success validates the sector it's long in.

This is not a prediction that Aschenbrenner will fail. It is an epistemological claim: the evidence available at the one-year mark is structurally insufficient to distinguish genius from timing. The same structural pattern — domain expertise, transparent thesis, concentrated bets, early outperformance — produces both the greatest investment successes and the most spectacular failures.

---

Relevant Notes:
- [[teleological investing is Bayesian reasoning applied to technology streams because attractor state analysis provides the prior and market evidence updates the posterior]] — the Bayesian frame for evaluating return evidence
- [[industry transitions produce speculative overshoot because correct identification of the attractor state attracts capital faster than the knowledge embodiment lag can absorb it]] — AUM growth as overshoot signal
- [[teleological investing is structurally contrarian because most market participants are local optimizers whose short time horizons systematically undervalue long-horizon convergence plays]] — contrarian positioning looks identical to overconcentration at early stages
- [[pioneers prove concepts but fast followers with better capital allocation capture most long-term value in industry transitions]] — Wood proved the thesis then got destroyed by timing

Topics:
- [[attractor dynamics]]
