---
source_type: research
title: "Leopold Aschenbrenner & Situational Awareness — Research Dump"
author: research (generated for codex)
date_published: 2026-03-05
date_archived: 2026-03-07
archived_by: rio
status: processed
url: null
domain: internet-finance
claims_extracted:
  - "one year of outperformance is insufficient evidence to distinguish alpha from leveraged beta because concentrated thematic funds nearly always outperform during sector booms"
  - "transparent thesis plus concentrated bets plus early outperformance is structurally identical whether the outcome is spectacular success or catastrophic failure"
  - "publishing investment analysis openly before raising capital inverts hedge fund secrecy because transparency attracts domain-expert LPs who can independently verify the thesis"
enrichments:
  - "giving away the intelligence layer to capture value on capital flow — added Aschenbrenner case study"
  - "teleological investing is Bayesian reasoning — added SA LP Q4 2025 portfolio pivot case study"
flagged_for_theseus:
  - "OOM framework and AGI timeline predictions (research dump)"
  - "Intelligence explosion thesis"
  - "DeepSeek R1 challenging geopolitical thesis"
  - "LessWrong retrospective validation claims — AI alignment accuracy check needed"
notes: "Primary source for Aschenbrenner extraction. 6 analysis files accompanied this research dump on branch inbox/aschenbrenner-situational-awareness. Sources: Fortune Oct 2025, SEC 13F filings, LessWrong June 2025, Morningstar, Daniel Scrivner Q4 2025 analysis."
---

# Leopold Aschenbrenner & Situational Awareness — Research Dump

See full content on branch `inbox/aschenbrenner-situational-awareness`. Key facts:

- Born ~2001-2002, Columbia valedictorian at 19, OpenAI Superalignment team, fired April 2024
- Published "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead" (165 pages) June 2024
- Founded SA LP September 2024. Growth: $225M → $5.52B in ~1 year
- Returns: 47% after fees H1 2025 vs 6% S&P 500
- LPs: Collison brothers, Nat Friedman, Daniel Gross
- Q4 2025 pivot: exited Nvidia/Broadcom, concentrated into Bloom Energy, CoreWeave, BTC miners pivoting to AI hosting
- Comparables: Cathie Wood (ARK, +153% 2020 → -67% 2022), Michael Burry (opposite thesis), Soros, Thiel
