---
description: Needs change on evolutionary timescales while technology changes on decades and industry structures on years -- this mismatch is why needs-based reasoning works for long-horizon industry prediction where trend extrapolation fails
type: claim
domain: teleological-economics
created: 2026-02-18
source: "Max-Neef Human Scale Development 1991; Deci & Ryan SDT 1985-2024; Tay & Diener Gallup 123-country study 2011; Kenrick et al evolutionary renovation of Maslow 2010; Buss 37-culture mate preference study 1989"
confidence: likely
tradition: "Self-Determination Theory, evolutionary psychology, human-scale development"
---

# human needs are finite universal and stable across millennia making them the invariant constraints from which industry attractor states can be derived

The research on human needs converges from multiple independent directions on a striking conclusion: fundamental human needs are finite, universal across cultures, and stable on timescales vastly longer than industry cycles. This makes needs the "physics" of industry analysis -- the constraints that do not change, against which all industry structure is convention.

Max-Neef identifies nine fundamental needs: subsistence, protection, affection, understanding, participation, leisure, creation, identity, and freedom. His crucial distinction: needs are finite and universal, but satisfiers -- the products, services, and institutions that address needs -- are infinite and culturally variable. A person in pre-industrial society and a person today have the same need for protection; they just satisfy it through different means. This means the needs are fixed reference points while the satisfiers (and therefore the industries producing them) are in constant flux.

Self-Determination Theory (Deci & Ryan) achieves the strongest empirical validation of any needs framework. Three universal needs -- autonomy, competence, and relatedness -- are validated across dozens of cultures including East Asian collectivist societies. The Tay & Diener study (2011), using Gallup data from 60,865 participants across 123 countries, confirmed that basic need fulfillment correlates with life satisfaction universally. Critically, autonomy is equally important across cultures -- paternalistic models that strip autonomy generate structural resistance regardless of cultural context. For industry analysis, this means any industry configuration that thwarts autonomy (even while satisfying other needs) faces headwinds that will not diminish with demographic shifts.

Evolutionary psychology adds the deepest layer of stability. Kenrick et al. (2010) renovated Maslow's hierarchy on evolutionary foundations, identifying seven motives grounded in adaptive problems that shaped the human genome over hundreds of thousands of years: physiological needs, self-protection, affiliation, status/esteem, mate acquisition, mate retention, and parenting. Buss's 37-culture study (1989) showed that mate preferences are remarkably consistent across cultures -- resource acquisition capacity, physical attractiveness signals, and status all matter everywhere. These evolved needs are essentially fixed on any industry-relevant timescale.

The timescale mismatch creates the analytical opportunity. Evolved needs change on timescales of tens of thousands of years. Psychological needs (SDT) are stable across all recorded cultural variation. Technology changes on timescales of decades. Industry structures change on timescales of years. An attractor state derived from human needs and physical constraints inherits the stability of the needs themselves -- it will still be directionally correct decades from now, even as the specific technology path remains uncertain. This is why trend extrapolation fails during structural transitions while needs-based reasoning does not: trends are properties of specific satisfier configurations that can be disrupted, but the underlying needs persist through any disruption.

One important finding complicates the Maslow hierarchy but strengthens industry analysis: needs are simultaneous, not hierarchical. People pursue meaning, identity, and belonging even when subsistence and safety are unmet. The Tay & Diener data showed people reporting good social relationships and self-actualization even when basic needs were NOT fully met. For industry analysis, this means industries serving "higher" needs (identity, autonomy, self-expression) do not wait for "lower" needs to be fully satisfied. This explains why identity-driven wellness products sell in every income bracket and why the McKinsey 2024 wellness data shows "improving appearance" outranking "better health" as consumers' primary wellness motivation -- mate attraction and identity needs drive more spending than subsistence needs.

---

Relevant Notes:
- [[industries are need-satisfaction systems and the attractor state is the configuration that most efficiently satisfies underlying human needs given available technology]] -- this note provides the epistemological foundation that makes that framework reliable for long-horizon prediction
- [[industries evolve from destroying to synergically satisfying human needs because competitive pressure selects for configurations serving more needs simultaneously]] -- the evolutionary trajectory made possible by the fixed-needs/variable-satisfiers distinction
- [[the free energy principle is not a falsifiable theory but a mathematical description of what things must do to exist]] -- FEP describes what biological systems must do (minimize surprise); needs theory describes what humans must have (need satisfaction). Both are invariant constraints, not empirical predictions.
- [[biological systems minimize free energy to maintain their states and resist entropic decay]] -- needs are the human-specific expression of the states that living systems maintain
- [[collective intelligence requires diversity as a structural precondition not a moral preference]] -- SDT's autonomy need means CI systems that strip individual autonomy will face structural resistance from participants
- [[ideas cluster around cognitive attractors through reconstruction not faithful copying which means cultural stability comes from shared minds not replication fidelity]] -- cultural needs satisfaction patterns cluster around attractors too, with needs as the invariant attractors

Topics:
- [[livingip overview]]
- [[attractor dynamics]]