---
type: source
title: "Alea Research: MetaDAO's Fair Launch Model Analysis"
url: https://alearesearch.substack.com/p/metadaos-fair-launches
archived_date: 2024-00-00
format: article
status: processing
processed_date: 2024-03-11
extraction_model: claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219
enrichments:
  - claims/futarchy/metadao-conditional-markets-governance.md
  - claims/futarchy/metadao-futarchy-implementation.md
  - claims/crypto/metadao-meta-token-performance.md
  - claims/crypto/token-launch-mechanisms-comparison.md
  - claims/crypto/high-float-launches-reduce-volatility.md
notes: |
  Analysis of MetaDAO's ICO launch mechanism. Identified two potential new claims:
  1. MetaDAO's 8/8 above-ICO performance as evidence for futarchy-based curation
  2. High-float launch design reducing post-launch volatility
  
  Claims not yet extracted - keeping status as processing.
  
  Five existing claims identified for potential enrichment with MetaDAO case study data.
  
  Critical gap: No failure cases documented - survivorship bias risk.
  Single-source analysis (Alea Research) - no independent verification.

key_facts:
  - MetaDAO launched 8 projects via ICO mechanism since April 2024
  - All 8 projects trading above ICO price (100% success rate)
  - ICO mechanism uses futarchy (conditional markets) for project selection
  - High-float launch model (large initial supply)
  - Analysis based on single source (Alea Research Substack)
---

# Alea Research: MetaDAO's Fair Launch Model Analysis

## Extraction Hints
- Focus on the 8/8 above-ICO performance claim and its connection to futarchy-based curation
- Extract the high-float launch mechanism claim with specific evidence
- Note the lack of failure case documentation when assessing confidence
- Single-source limitation should be reflected in confidence levels