---
description: Bostrom argues that the dynamics of intelligence takeoff create winner-take-all conditions where even modest initial leads become insurmountable
type: claim
domain: ai-alignment
created: 2026-02-16
source: "Bostrom, Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies (2014)"
confidence: likely
---

A decisive strategic advantage is a level of technological and other advantages sufficient to enable a project to achieve complete world domination. Bostrom argues that the first project to achieve superintelligence would likely gain such an advantage, particularly in fast or moderate takeoff scenarios. Historical technology races show typical lags of months to a few years between leader and nearest competitor. If the takeoff from human-level to superintelligence is fast (hours to weeks), almost certainly no competing project would be at the same stage simultaneously.

The critical dynamic is that the gap between frontrunner and followers tends to widen during takeoff rather than narrow. Consider a moderate takeoff scenario: if it takes one year total, with nine months to reach the crossover point and three months from crossover to strong superintelligence, then a project with a six-month lead attains superintelligence three months before the following project even reaches the crossover point. Like a cyclist who reaches a hilltop and accelerates downhill while competitors are still climbing, the strong positive feedback loop of recursive self-improvement explosively widens any initial advantage.

Unlike human organizations, an AI system that constitutes a single unified agent would not face internal coordination problems. Human organizations face bureaucratic inefficiencies, agency problems, and the risk of internal factions. An AI system avoids these because its modules need not have individual preferences that diverge from the system as a whole. This same advantage -- having perfectly loyal parts -- makes it easier to pursue long-range clandestine goals and harder for competitors to benefit from information leakage. The result is that a first mover in superintelligence would likely form a singleton: a world order with a single global decision-making agency. This is why [[collective superintelligence is the alternative to monolithic AI controlled by a few]] -- the LivingIP architecture is specifically designed to prevent singleton outcomes by distributing intelligence across many agents.

---

Relevant Notes:
- [[recursive self-improvement creates explosive intelligence gains because the system that improves is itself improving]] -- recursive improvement is the mechanism that creates the accelerating gap between leader and followers
- [[capability control methods are temporary at best because a sufficiently intelligent system can circumvent any containment designed by lesser minds]] -- a first mover with decisive advantage would render all external capability control irrelevant
- [[intelligence and goals are orthogonal so a superintelligence can be maximally competent while pursuing arbitrary or destructive ends]] -- decisive advantage in the hands of a system with arbitrary goals is the core existential risk scenario
- [[collective superintelligence is the alternative to monolithic AI controlled by a few]] -- distributed architecture as the structural countermeasure to decisive strategic advantage
- [[technology advances exponentially but coordination mechanisms evolve linearly creating a widening gap]] -- the coordination gap makes it harder for competing projects to synchronize, favoring first-mover dominance
- [[three paths to superintelligence exist but only collective superintelligence preserves human agency]] -- only the collective path prevents singleton formation
Topics:
- [[_map]]
