---
description: The complete investment framework stacks attractor state analysis (direction) with atoms-to-bits positioning (defensibility) and bottleneck theory (capture) into a single decision sequence
type: claim
domain: teleological-economics
created: 2026-02-21
confidence: likely
---

# teleological investing answers three questions in sequence -- where must the industry go and where in the stack will value concentrate and who will control that position

Three frameworks stack into one investment decision sequence:

**Question 1: Where must the industry go?** Attractor state analysis identifies the destination -- the configuration that most efficiently satisfies human needs given available technology. Since [[industries are need-satisfaction systems and the attractor state is the configuration that most efficiently satisfies underlying human needs given available technology]], the direction is derivable from first principles. Historical backtesting across five transitions confirms the framework identifies direction correctly, though timing remains the hardest problem.

**Question 2: Where in the stack will value concentrate?** The atoms-to-bits spectrum maps defensibility across the value chain. Since [[the atoms-to-bits spectrum positions industries between defensible-but-linear and scalable-but-commoditizable with the sweet spot where physical data generation feeds software that scales independently]], pure physical businesses scale linearly (defensible but capital-heavy), pure software commoditizes instantly, and the sweet spot -- where physical interfaces generate proprietary data feeding scalable software -- creates compounding defensibility. This answers where value concentrates structurally.

**Question 3: Who will control that position?** Bottleneck theory identifies which specific players capture value during and after the transition. Since [[value in industry transitions accrues to bottleneck positions in the emerging architecture not to pioneers or to the largest incumbents]], the answer is neither the first mover nor the biggest incumbent but whoever controls the chokepoint in the emerging architecture. Since [[proxy inertia is the most reliable predictor of incumbent failure because current profitability rationally discourages pursuit of viable futures]], incumbents protecting current profits reliably signal where new entrants can build bottleneck positions.

**The complete sequence:** Attractor state gives you the destination. Atoms-to-bits gives you the defensible layer. Bottleneck theory gives you the player. Direction + defensibility + position = a complete teleological investment thesis.

**Applied to LivingIP's own position:** LivingIP sits at the atoms-to-bits conversion point for collective intelligence. Human expertise is the "atoms" -- defensible, slow to accumulate, impossible to fake. AI agents and knowledge infrastructure are the "bits" -- scalable, fast, but commoditizable without the human input. The conversion point -- where expert judgment feeds AI that scales independently -- is where since [[the co-dependence between TeleoHumanitys worldview and LivingIPs infrastructure is the durable competitive moat because technology commoditizes but purpose does not]], the purpose-technology co-dependence creates a moat that pure technology companies cannot replicate.

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Relevant Notes:
- [[attractor states provide gravitational reference points for capital allocation during structural industry change]] -- the original investment application of attractor theory that this note synthesizes into a three-question framework
- [[competitive advantage must be actively deepened through isolating mechanisms because advantage that is not reinforced erodes]] -- Rumelt's insight that defensibility requires active reinforcement, not just initial positioning
- [[healthcares defensible layer is where atoms become bits because physical-to-digital conversion generates the data that powers AI care while building patient trust that software alone cannot create]] -- the healthcare-specific application of this three-question framework: attractor = value-based care, atoms-to-bits = clinical data conversion, bottleneck = Devoted's Orinoco platform
- [[excellence in chain-link systems creates durable competitive advantage because a competitor must match every link simultaneously]] -- chain-link coherence as the strongest form of bottleneck position: interlocking policies that cannot be partially copied

Topics:
- [[attractor dynamics]]
- [[competitive advantage and moats]]