---
type: source
title: "KFF Medicare Advantage in 2025: Enrollment Update and Key Trends"
author: "Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF)"
url: https://www.kff.org/medicare/medicare-advantage-enrollment-update-and-key-trends/
date: 2025-07-24
domain: health
secondary_domains: []
format: data
status: unprocessed
priority: high
tags: [medicare-advantage, enrollment, market-concentration, market-share, kff]
---

## Content

### Enrollment Trajectory (2007-2025)

| Year | Enrollment | Penetration Rate |
|------|-----------|------------------|
| 2007 | 7.6M | 19% |
| 2010 | 10.8M | 25% |
| 2015 | 16.2M | 32% |
| 2020 | 23.8M | 42% |
| 2023 | 30.8M | 51% |
| 2024 | 32.8M | 54% |
| 2025 | 34.1M | 54% |

- Growth rate 2024-2025: 4% (1.3M additional enrollees)
- More than half of eligible beneficiaries enrolled since 2023
- CBO projects 64% penetration by 2034

### Market Share by Insurer (2025)

| Organization | Enrollment | Share |
|--------------|-----------|-------|
| UnitedHealth Group | 9.9M | 29% |
| Humana Inc. | 5.7M | 17% |
| CVS Health (Aetna) | 4.1M | 12% |
| Elevance Health | 2.2M | 7% |
| Kaiser Foundation | 2.0M | 6% |
| All others | 10.3M | 30% |

- UHG + Humana = 46% of all enrollees
- 815 counties (26% of all counties) have 75%+ enrollment concentration in UHG & Humana
- Humana lost 297K members in 2025 while UHG gained 505K

### Plan Type Distribution (2025)

- Individual plans: 21.2M (62%)
- Special Needs Plans: 7.3M (21%) — up from 14% in 2020
- Employer/union group: 5.7M (17%)

### SNP Breakdown

- D-SNPs (dual-eligible): 6.1M (83% of SNPs)
- C-SNPs (chronic conditions): 1.2M (16%) — **71% growth** 2024-2025
- I-SNPs (institutional): 115K (2%)

### Federal Spending Impact

- 2025: $84B more than FFS equivalent (20% per-person premium)
- 2015: $18B more (when ~1/3 of eligible enrolled)
- Spending gap has grown 4.7x while enrollment roughly doubled

### Key Market Dynamics

- Average parent organization options per beneficiary: 9
- 36% of beneficiaries have 10+ plan options
- Employer/union group plans: first year of flat growth in ~10 years

## Agent Notes
**Why this matters:** The definitive enrollment dataset. MA crossing 50% in 2023 is a structural inflection — majority of Medicare beneficiaries now in managed care. The market concentration data (UHG + Humana = 46%) shows this is not a competitive market despite 9+ options per beneficiary. CBO's 64% by 2034 projection means traditional Medicare is becoming the minority program.
**What surprised me:** C-SNP growth of 71% in one year. The chronic-condition special needs plans are the fastest-growing segment, which connects to the metabolic epidemic and GLP-1 demand. Also: Humana losing 297K members while UHG gains 505K suggests the market is consolidating further, not diversifying.
**KB connections:** [[the healthcare attractor state is a prevention-first system where aligned payment continuous monitoring and AI-augmented care delivery create a flywheel that profits from health rather than sickness]], [[Devoted is the fastest-growing MA plan at 121 percent growth because purpose-built technology outperforms acquisition-based vertical integration during CMS tightening]]
**Extraction hints:** Claims about: (1) MA crossing majority-enrollment threshold as structural transformation, (2) market concentration as oligopoly despite nominal choice, (3) C-SNP explosive growth as indicator of chronic disease management demand, (4) spending gap acceleration trajectory

## Curator Notes
PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[the healthcare attractor state is a prevention-first system where aligned payment continuous monitoring and AI-augmented care delivery create a flywheel that profits from health rather than sickness]]
WHY ARCHIVED: Essential market structure data — the enrollment trajectory and concentration metrics ground claims about where the US healthcare system is actually heading vs. where theory says it should go.
EXTRACTION HINT: The spending gap growing 4.7x while enrollment only doubled is the key structural insight — scale is making the overpayment problem worse, not better.
