---
type: entity
entity_type: company
name: "Kalshi"
domain: internet-finance
handles: ["@Kalshi"]
website: https://kalshi.com
status: active
tracked_by: rio
created: 2026-03-11
last_updated: 2026-03-11
founded: 2021-01-01
founders: ["Tarek Mansour", "Luana Lopes Lara"]
category: "Regulated prediction market exchange (CFTC-designated)"
stage: growth
key_metrics:
  monthly_volume_30d: "$6.8B (March 2026)"
  weekly_record: "$5.35B combined with Polymarket (week of March 2-8, 2026)"
competitors: ["[[polymarket]]"]
built_on: ["Traditional finance rails (USD)"]
tags: ["prediction-markets", "event-contracts", "regulated-exchange"]
---

# Kalshi

## Overview
CFTC-designated contract market for event-based trading. USD-denominated, KYC-required, traditional brokerage integration. Won a landmark federal court case against CFTC to list election contracts. Regulation-first approach targeting institutional and mainstream users — the complement to Polymarket's crypto-native model.

## Current State
- **Volume**: $6.8B 30-day (March 2026) — trails Polymarket's $8.7B but growing fast
- **Regulatory**: Full CFTC designation as contract market. Won Kalshi v. CFTC (D.C. Circuit) to list congressional control contracts — first legal precedent for political event contracts on regulated exchanges.
- **Access**: US-native. KYC required. Traditional payment rails (bank transfer, debit card). No crypto exposure for users.
- **Market creation**: Centrally listed — Kalshi chooses which markets to offer (vs Polymarket's permissionless model)
- **Distribution**: Brokerage integration (Interactive Brokers partnership), mobile-first UX

## Timeline
- **2021** — Founded. CFTC designation as contract market.
- **2023** — CFTC tried to block election contracts. Kalshi sued.
- **2024-09** — Won federal court case (D.C. Circuit) — CFTC cannot ban political event contracts
- **2024-11** — Election trading alongside Polymarket. Combined volume $3.7B+
- **2025** — Growth surge post-election vindication
- **2026-03** — Combined Polymarket+Kalshi weekly record: $5.35B (week of March 2-8, 2026)

## Competitive Position
- **Regulation-first**: Only CFTC-designated prediction market exchange. Institutional credibility.
- **vs Polymarket**: Different market — Kalshi targets mainstream/institutional users who won't touch crypto. Polymarket targets crypto-native users who want permissionless market creation. Both grew massively post-2024 election.
- **Structural advantage**: Regulatory moat. Traditional finance integration. No crypto friction.
- **Structural weakness**: Centrally listed markets (slower to add new markets). No permissionless market creation. Higher regulatory compliance costs.
- **Not governance**: Like Polymarket, aggregates information but doesn't govern organizations.

## Investment Thesis
Kalshi is the institutional/mainstream bet on prediction markets. If prediction markets become standard infrastructure for forecasting, Kalshi captures the regulated, institutional, and mainstream consumer segments that Polymarket's crypto model cannot reach. The federal court victory was a regulatory moat creation event.

**Thesis status:** ACTIVE

## Relationship to KB
- [[Polymarket vindicated prediction markets over polling in 2024 US election]] — Kalshi co-beneficiary of this vindication
- [[speculative markets aggregate information through incentive and selection effects not wisdom of crowds]] — same mechanism theory applies
- [[decision markets fail in three systematic categories where legitimacy thin information or herding dynamics make voting or deliberation structurally superior]] — boundary conditions apply equally

---

Relevant Entities:
- [[polymarket]] — primary competitor (crypto-native)

Topics:
- [[internet finance and decision markets]]
