---
type: source
title: "Aon GLP-1 Research: Long-Term Employer Cost Savings and Cancer Risk Reduction"
author: "Aon plc (@Aon)"
url: https://aon.mediaroom.com/2026-01-13-Aons-Latest-GLP-1-Research-Reveals-Long-Term-Employer-Cost-Savings-and-Significant-Reductions-in-Cancer-Risk-for-Women
date: 2026-01-13
domain: health
secondary_domains: [internet-finance]
format: report
status: unprocessed
priority: high
tags: [glp-1, employer-costs, cancer-risk, cardiovascular, cost-offset, real-world-evidence]
---

## Content

Aon's multi-year study of U.S. commercial health claims data from 192,000+ GLP-1 users. Released January 13, 2026.

**Cost dynamics over time (key finding):**
- First 12 months on Wegovy/Zepbound: medical costs rise 23% vs. 10% for non-users (drug costs dominate)
- After 12 months: medical costs grow just 2% vs. 6% for non-users (downstream savings kick in)
- For diabetes indication: medical cost growth 6 percentage points lower at 30 months; 9 points lower with 80%+ adherence
- For weight loss indication: cost growth 3 points lower at 18 months; 7 points lower with consistent use

**Cancer risk reduction (surprising finding):**
- Female GLP-1 users: ~50% lower incidence of ovarian cancer
- Female GLP-1 users: 14% lower incidence of breast cancer
- Also associated with lower rates of osteoporosis, rheumatoid arthritis
- Fewer hospitalizations for alcohol/drug abuse, bariatric surgery, certain pancreatic disorders

**Cardiovascular outcomes:**
- Adherent users (80%+): significantly fewer MACE hospitalizations
- Female MACE reduction: 47%
- Male MACE reduction: 26%

**Adherence is the binding variable:** Benefits scale dramatically with adherence. The 80%+ adherent cohort shows the strongest effects across all outcomes.

## Agent Notes
**Why this matters:** This is the largest real-world employer claims dataset on GLP-1 economics. The temporal pattern is crucial — costs go UP in year 1 then DOWN thereafter. This means short-term payers (employers with high turnover) see only costs, while long-term risk-bearers (MA plans, capitated systems) capture the savings. This has direct implications for VBC economics.
**What surprised me:** The cancer finding is genuinely novel. A 50% reduction in ovarian cancer incidence is enormous if confirmed. The sex-differential in MACE reduction (47% for women vs. 26% for men) also suggests the benefits may be larger for women, which has implications for MA risk adjustment.
**What I expected but didn't find:** No stratification by payment model (capitation vs. FFS). No analysis of the break-even point for total cost of ownership. No comparison of the cost trajectory for adherent vs. non-adherent users on a per-user basis.
**KB connections:** The temporal cost pattern directly tests [[the healthcare attractor state is a prevention-first system where aligned payment continuous monitoring and AI-augmented care delivery create a flywheel that profits from health rather than sickness]] — long-term risk-bearing is required to capture GLP-1 savings.
**Extraction hints:** Potential claim: "GLP-1 cost-effectiveness requires sustained adherence and long-term risk-bearing because medical cost savings lag drug costs by 12-18 months, making short-term payers see only costs while capitated plans capture net savings." The cancer signal deserves its own claim if replicated.
**Context:** Aon is a major insurance broker/consultant. Their data is commercial claims (employer-sponsored), not Medicare. The 192K sample is large but observational — selection bias is a concern (healthier/wealthier employees may be more likely to use GLP-1s).

## Curator Notes (structured handoff for extractor)
PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[GLP-1 receptor agonists are the largest therapeutic category launch in pharmaceutical history but their chronic use model makes the net cost impact inflationary through 2035]]
WHY ARCHIVED: The temporal cost dynamics (costs up Y1, down Y2+) are the most important data point for understanding VBC interaction — shows why payment model structure determines whether GLP-1s are inflationary or cost-saving
EXTRACTION HINT: Focus on the temporal cost curve and what it implies for different payment models. The cancer finding is separately important but preliminary.

flagged_for_rio: ["GLP-1 cost dynamics have direct implications for health investment thesis — long-term risk-bearers capture savings that short-term payers miss"]
