---
type: claim
domain: space-development
description: "By 2056 the converged cislunar architecture includes propellant depot networks at Lagrange points, MWe-scale lunar fission power, operational water and oxygen ISRU, an orbital pharma-semiconductor-bioprinting manufacturing ring, and Mars pre-positioning -- five interdependent layers where each enables the others"
confidence: experimental
source: "Astra synthesis from NASA Artemis architecture, ESA Moon Village concept, multiple ISRU roadmaps, and attractor state framework from Rumelt/Teleological Investing"
created: 2026-03-07
challenged_by: "The five-layer architecture assumes coordinated investment across layers that may not materialize -- chain-link failure risk means any single missing layer (especially power or propellant) can strand the others indefinitely. Also, Starship-era launch costs may undercut some ISRU economics (see [[falling launch costs paradoxically both enable and threaten in-space resource utilization by making infrastructure affordable while competing with the end product]])"
---

# the 30-year space economy attractor state is a cislunar industrial system with propellant networks lunar ISRU orbital manufacturing and partial life support closure

The 30-year attractor state for the space economy converges on a cislunar industrial system with five integrated layers:

1. **Cislunar propellant economy** — fuel depot networks at Earth-Moon Lagrange points, lunar orbit, and LEO, with propellant sourced primarily from lunar water ice and eventually asteroid water.
2. **Lunar industrial zone** — multiple fission reactors (hundreds of kWe to MWe scale) powering continuous ISRU, with regolith processing producing oxygen, metals, construction materials, and water.
3. **Orbital manufacturing ring** — specialized platforms in LEO for pharmaceutical crystallization, semiconductor crystal growth, ZBLAN fiber production, bioprinting, and specialty alloys.
4. **Operational SBSP** — GW-scale stations in GEO beaming power to terrestrial receivers.
5. **Mars pre-positioning** — ISRU equipment on Mars producing oxygen and water propellant for future crewed missions.

This is not a prediction but a description of where technology convergence points, following the [[attractor states provide gravitational reference points for capital allocation during structural industry change]] framework. Each component reinforces the others: propellant networks enable transportation between manufacturing sites, lunar ISRU supplies raw materials and propellant, orbital manufacturing produces high-value products for Earth and space markets, SBSP provides power at scale, and Mars infrastructure extends the system beyond cislunar space.

The architecture is partially closed — power and oxygen locally sourced, water locally extracted, basic structural materials locally produced — but complex electronics, biological supplies, and advanced materials still come from Earth. Full closure (the self-sustaining threshold) requires closing three interdependent loops simultaneously: power, water, and manufacturing.

The five layers form a chain-link system: propellant depots without ISRU are uneconomic, ISRU without power infrastructure is inoperable, and manufacturing without transportation is stranded. This means investment must be coordinated across layers, and the [[value in industry transitions accrues to bottleneck positions in the emerging architecture not to pioneers or to the largest incumbents]].

The investment framework this implies: position along the dependency chain that builds toward this attractor state. [[power is the binding constraint on all space operations because every capability from ISRU to manufacturing to life support is power-limited]], making power infrastructure foundational. Water extraction is enabling. Propellant depots are connective. Manufacturing platforms are the value-capture layer.


### Additional Evidence (challenge)
*Source: [[2026-03-00-artemis-program-restructuring]] | Added: 2026-03-16*

Artemis restructuring pushes first lunar landing to 2028 and reveals that lunar ISRU deployment is blocked by insufficient resource knowledge despite technology being at TRL 5-6. NASA states 'a resilient resource exploration campaign is needed to understand and map lunar water before commercial extraction.' This adds a critical path dependency (resource prospecting) that precedes ISRU infrastructure deployment.

---

Relevant Notes:
- [[attractor states provide gravitational reference points for capital allocation during structural industry change]] — this is the specific 30-year attractor state for space, applying the framework to a multi-trillion-dollar industry transition
- [[launch cost reduction is the keystone variable that unlocks every downstream space industry at specific price thresholds]] — launch cost determines which layers of the attractor state become economically viable and when
- [[value in industry transitions accrues to bottleneck positions in the emerging architecture not to pioneers or to the largest incumbents]] — the investment thesis follows from identifying which layer is the current bottleneck
- [[the healthcare cost curve bends up through 2035 because new curative and screening capabilities create more treatable conditions faster than prices decline]] — both healthcare and space exhibit the paradox where capability expansion initially increases rather than decreases costs
- [[power is the binding constraint on all space operations because every capability from ISRU to manufacturing to life support is power-limited]] — power sits at the root of the dependency tree
- [[water is the strategic keystone resource of the cislunar economy because it simultaneously serves as propellant life support radiation shielding and thermal management]] — water is the enabling resource layer

Topics:
- [[_map]]
