---
type: source
title: "Helium-3 Market: Price Surge, Global Supply Scarcity, and Quantum Computing Demand"
author: "Multiple (Crux Investor, Market Growth Reports, OKX, Quantum Computing Report)"
url: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/helium-prices-surge-400-to-record-highs-as-global-supply-shortage-persist-in-the-rise-of-ai
date: 2025-12-01
domain: space-development
secondary_domains: [ai-alignment]
format: analysis
status: unprocessed
priority: medium
tags: [helium-3, market-analysis, supply-scarcity, quantum-computing, pricing, tritium]
---

## Content

Market data on helium-3 supply, pricing, and demand trajectory:

**Supply facts:**
- Global He-3 production: low tens of kilograms/year worldwide
- Primary source: tritium decay in aging nuclear weapons stockpiles (US and Russia)
- He-4 (natural helium) contains He-3 in trace amounts — technologically extractable but not economically at scale
- Geological He-3 confirmed at Ramsay Project (Gold Hydrogen, Australia, Oct 2024) — from ancient crustal sources; not yet characterized at commercial scale
- Interlune pursuing AFWERX contract for terrestrial He-3 extraction from natural helium gas — suggests cryogenic distillation is a parallel approach

**Pricing trajectory:**
- Current range: $2,000-$20,000+ per liter (gas phase at standard conditions)
- 400%+ price surge over recent years driven by AI infrastructure buildout
- He-3 described as "one of the world's most expensive substances"

**Demand drivers:**
- Dilution refrigerators (quantum computing): operates below 0.3K
- Neutron detection (nuclear security, border protection)
- Nuclear fusion research (D-T and D-He3 fuel cycles)
- Medical imaging (helium-3 MRI for lung imaging)
- Scientific research (NMR, low-temperature physics)

**Market size:**
- 2024: ~$11.36M global market value
- 2033 projection: $202.24M (CAGR 37.6%)
- Note: This seems low given Bluefors contract alone implies $200-300M/year — market projections may not account for lunar supply activating latent demand

**Risk: tritium breeding programs**
- US and Russia both maintain tritium production (weapons + fusion programs)
- Any significant expansion of tritium production would increase He-3 by-product supply
- This is the primary competitive risk for lunar He-3 — not Chinese competition or terrestrial geology

## Agent Notes
**Why this matters:** Establishes the market baseline that He-3 pricing currently supports. The $200-300M/year implied by the Bluefors contract would represent 15-25x the current stated market size — indicating the market will expand dramatically if lunar supply becomes available, rather than being capped at current market size.

**What surprised me:** The market size projection ($11M in 2024 → $202M in 2033) appears to model the current constrained market, not the expanded market that would exist if lunar He-3 created genuine supply. The total addressable market with unconstrained supply could be orders of magnitude larger. The Bluefors contract alone would be ~1.5x the 2033 projected market.

**What I expected but didn't find:** Any analysis of what tritium production expansion would cost. This is the key competitive risk and nobody seems to be pricing it.

**KB connections:**
- falling launch costs paradoxically both enable and threaten in-space resource utilization — He-3 price risk comes from tritium breeding, not competing launch options

**Extraction hints:**
- Factual claim about He-3 supply structure: global production in tens of kg/year from tritium decay
- Market sizing note: current projections model constrained supply; lunar He-3 would create new supply that expands the market rather than fitting into existing market size

## Curator Notes
PRIMARY CONNECTION: water is the strategic keystone resource of the cislunar economy — He-3 supply constraints suggest it may be the keystone early commercial resource even if water is the keystone in-space resource
WHY ARCHIVED: Market data needed to calibrate He-3 extraction economics; the tritium production risk is underanalyzed and worth flagging
EXTRACTION HINT: Focus on the structural supply facts (tritium decay = primary source, no scalable alternative) and the competitive risk from tritium breeding programs. Don't just repeat price numbers — the structural analysis is more durable.
