---
type: source
title: "WilmerHale: Event Contracts Regulated by Structure Not Prediction — CFTC DCM Registration Framework"
author: "WilmerHale"
url: https://www.wilmerhale.com/en/insights/client-alerts/20260415-want-to-get-into-cftc-regulated-event-contract-markets-heres-how-it-works
date: 2026-04-15
domain: internet-finance
secondary_domains: []
format: article
status: processed
processed_by: rio
processed_date: 2026-05-07
priority: medium
tags: [CFTC, event-contracts, DCM, regulation, prediction-markets, structure, regulatory]
intake_tier: research-task
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
---

## Content

WilmerHale published a practical guide to entering CFTC-regulated event contract markets (April 15, 2026). Key regulatory framework finding:

**Core principle:** "event contracts are not regulated based on what they predict but on how they are structured, offered, traded, cleared and intermediated"

**CFTC's swap definition scope:** Event contracts are defined broadly as agreements where payouts depend on "the occurrence, nonoccurrence, or the extent of the occurrence of an event or contingency associated with a potential financial, economic, or commercial consequence." Historically covered elections, economic indicators, weather, sporting outcomes.

**DCM requirements:** File Form DCM through CFTC Portal. DCMs must maintain "fair and orderly markets" and comply with 23 core principles. Self-certification process applies to individual contract listings.

**No mention of governance markets, DAOs, or endogenous settlement.**

## Agent Notes

**Why this matters:** WilmerHale's structural analysis framework — "regulated by HOW, not WHAT" — is directly favorable to MetaDAO. MetaDAO governance markets are not structured as retail prediction markets, not offered on a registered exchange, not cleared through a clearing organization, and not intermediated by a registered broker.

**What surprised me:** The clarity of the principle. "Not regulated based on what they predict but on how they are structured" is the strongest single sentence I've found for MetaDAO's structural defense.

**What I expected but didn't find:** Any analysis of how the structural test applies to decentralized/blockchain-based markets not on registered DCMs. WilmerHale appears to assume all event contract operators will be DCMs — the non-DCM case isn't discussed.

**KB connections:**
- [[MetaDAO conditional governance markets may fall outside the CFTC event contract definition because TWAP settlement against internal token price is endogenous rather than an external observable event]] — the WilmerHale structural principle supports the endogeneity claim: even if MetaDAO markets predict something, the regulation turns on HOW they operate, and MetaDAO's decentralized structure keeps it outside the DCM framework
- [[futarchy-based fundraising creates regulatory separation because there are no beneficial owners and investment decisions emerge from market forces not centralized control]] — the structural separation argument is strengthened by WilmerHale's principle

**Extraction hints:**
1. Extract a claim about MetaDAO's structural defense: the CFTC's "structure over prediction" principle means that MetaDAO's non-DCM, non-intermediated, non-cleared governance markets are structurally outside CFTC regulation regardless of what they predict.
2. Note the scope: this applies to CFTC framework only; SEC and state gaming law have separate structural analyses.

**Context:** WilmerHale is a top-tier regulatory law firm that frequently represents financial institutions before the CFTC. The April 15, 2026 publication date places this just before the Ninth Circuit argument (April 16), making it a current practitioner framing.

## Curator Notes

PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[MetaDAO conditional governance markets may fall outside the CFTC event contract definition because TWAP settlement against internal token price is endogenous rather than an external observable event]]
WHY ARCHIVED: The "structure over prediction" principle is the strongest single practitioner statement supporting MetaDAO's structural regulatory defense
EXTRACTION HINT: The extractor should create a claim specifically about how WilmerHale's structural framework applies to non-DCM governance markets
