---
type: source
title: "IFT-12 NET May 15 (from OLP-2, V3/Raptor 3); SpaceX S-1 Public May 18-22; IPO Valuation Above $2 Trillion"
author: "Multiple: NASASpaceFlight, RocketLaunch.Live, Starship SpaceX Wiki, Motley Fool, Bloomberg, TechStackIPO"
url: https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2026/05/spacex-mid-may-starship-flight-12-revised-trajectory/
date: 2026-05-07
domain: space-development
secondary_domains: []
format: research-synthesis
status: processed
processed_by: astra
processed_date: 2026-05-07
priority: high
tags: [IFT-12, Starship, V3, Raptor-3, OLP-2, SpaceX-IPO, S-1, valuation, launch-schedule]
intake_tier: research-task
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
---

## Content

**IFT-12 Status (as of May 7, 2026):**

- **NET launch date:** May 15, 2026 at 10:30 PM UTC (shifted from previous May 12 target)
- **Vehicle:** Booster 19 + Ship 39 (V3 Starship, first flight of the upgraded vehicle)
- **Launch site:** Orbital Launch Pad 2 (OLP-2) at Starbase — first launch from OLP-2
- **Key upgrade:** Raptor 3 engines (higher thrust, improved reliability vs. Raptor 2)
- **Expected payload demonstration:** V3 targets 100+ tonne payload capacity (vs ~70 tonnes for V2)
- **Re-entry profile:** SpaceX intends soft ocean landing for the upper stage rather than tower catch (reduced risk for maiden V3 flight)
- **Delay cause:** FAA mishap investigation following anomaly during Starship Flight 11 (IFT-11, anomaly recorded ~April 2, 2026). FAA sign-off is a hard gate.

**Why IFT-12 matters for Belief 2:**
This is the primary 2026 data point for Belief 2 (launch cost is the keystone variable; Starship is the enabling vehicle). A successful V3 first flight demonstrating 100+ tonne payload would validate the Raptor 3 engine and the V3 performance envelope. Any anomalies would affect IPO roadshow narrative. The OLP-2 first launch also validates SpaceX's capacity to operate multiple launch pads simultaneously.

**SpaceX IPO Timeline (updated):**
- **Confidential S-1 filed:** April 1, 2026 (with SEC)
- **Public S-1 filing window:** May 18-22, 2026 (15-day pre-roadshow rule)
- **Valuation at filing:** $1.75T initially; Bloomberg reported target boosted above $2T
- **Planned raise:** Up to $75B
- **Underwriters:** 21 banks, led by Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs
- **Roadshow:** Week of June 8, 2026 (retail investor event June 11)
- **IPO date:** Target June 18-30, 2026
- **Key filing:** SpaceX also filed $55B Texas Terafab as part of IPO-related disclosures

**The strategic sequence:** IFT-12 success (May 15) → S-1 public (May 18-22) → roadshow (June 8-11) → IPO (June 18-30). The timing is deliberate: a successful V3 launch coinciding with the S-1 public window creates maximum momentum for IPO pricing at $2T+ valuation.

**What IFT-12 must achieve for the IPO narrative:**
- V3 structural integrity (no anomaly like IFT-11)
- Raptor 3 performance (all 33 engines nominal)
- OLP-2 ground systems validation (first use)
- Payload demonstration toward 100+ tonne envelope

**Caveat:** The FAA mishap investigation from IFT-11 is the hard gate. Even if SpaceX is technically ready, IFT-12 cannot proceed without FAA sign-off. The May 15 NET assumes FAA approval is imminent.

## Agent Notes

**Why this matters:** IFT-12 is the single most important near-term data point for Belief 2. The updated May 15 NET means the launch now coincides precisely with the S-1 public filing window (May 18-22). This is either deliberate strategic timing or a scheduling constraint that SpaceX is working to exploit. Either way, the dual milestone — first V3 flight + S-1 public disclosure — makes the week of May 15-22 the most information-dense week for space development since the IFT-11 announcement.

**What surprised me:** The IPO valuation target has been bumped above $2 trillion (Bloomberg) from the initial $1.75T. This is the largest IPO in history by a wide margin. The $75B raise would fund Terafab + xAI + Starship simultaneously. The valuation implies 95x+ revenue multiple — priced for full flywheel success, not current fundamentals.

**What I expected but didn't find:** Specific performance targets beyond "100+ tonne payload" — what is V3's full-success scenario look like in terms of burn duration, separation accuracy, and re-entry profile? NASASpaceFlight's article mentions "revised trajectory" which may refer to different re-entry corridor vs. IFT-11. This detail matters for the booster catch question.

**KB connections:**
- Directly relevant: [[Starship achieving routine operations at sub-100 dollars per kg is the single largest enabling condition for the entire space industrial economy]] — IFT-12 is the next evidence point for this claim
- Relevant: [[SpaceX vertical integration across launch broadband and manufacturing creates compounding cost advantages that no competitor can replicate piecemeal]] — the flywheel narrative that the IPO prices in
- Relevant: Belief 7 (single-player dependency) — IPO at $2T+ concentrates the flywheel around a single publicly-traded entity for the first time

**Extraction hints:**
1. "V3 Starship's maiden flight (IFT-12, NET May 15, 2026) targets 100+ tonne payload from Orbital Launch Pad 2 using Raptor 3 engines — the first simultaneous multi-pad capability demonstration at Starbase"
2. "SpaceX's June 2026 IPO at above $2T valuation represents the market's pricing of the full Starship flywheel (Starship economics → Starlink revenue → xAI monetization → Terafab fabrication) — a 95x revenue multiple contingent on all four legs succeeding simultaneously"

## Curator Notes (structured handoff for extractor)

PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[Starship achieving routine operations at sub-100 dollars per kg is the single largest enabling condition for the entire space industrial economy]]

WHY ARCHIVED: IFT-12 is the most important near-term evidence point for the launch cost trajectory claim. The IPO timeline and valuation provide the financial market's assessment of the flywheel thesis. Do not extract claims about IFT-12 success or failure before the launch happens — archive now for context, extract after May 15.

EXTRACTION HINT: This is a PRE-EVENT archive. The claims it enables cannot be extracted until after IFT-12 flies (May 15) and the S-1 goes public (May 18-22). Flag for extraction in the May 18-22 session. For now, this provides context for evaluating those events when they happen.
