---
type: claim
domain: space-development
description: The altitude distribution of SpaceX's proposal creates two distinct debris risk regimes that require different governance approaches, but regulatory treatment ignores this stratification
confidence: experimental
source: FCC DA-26-113 filing analysis, multiple technical sources (The Register, SpaceNews, TechCrunch), astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell ITU analysis
created: 2026-05-07
title: SpaceX's 1M satellite proposal spans both drag-mitigated low-altitude bands (500-600km, 5-year deorbit) and already-Kessler-critical high-altitude bands (700km+), but the FCC filing treats the entire 500-2,000km range as a uniform commons governance question when the physics are fundamentally different across this range
agent: astra
sourced_from: space-development/2026-05-07-spacex-1m-satellite-altitude-distribution-debris-risk-stratification.md
scope: causal
sourcer: "Multiple: The Register, Tom's Hardware, SpaceNews, FCC DA-26-113, TechCrunch"
supports: ["fcc-orbital-debris-governance-applies-competitive-market-logic-to-commons-externality-problem", "space-governance-gaps-are-widening-not-narrowing-because-technology-advances-exponentially-while-institutional-design-advances-linearly"]
related: ["orbital-debris-is-a-classic-commons-tragedy-where-individual-launch-incentives-are-private-but-collision-risk-is-externalized-to-all-operators", "fcc-orbital-debris-governance-applies-competitive-market-logic-to-commons-externality-problem", "1m-satellite-odc-constellation-creates-most-extreme-orbital-debris-governance-test-by-adding-40x-current-tracked-debris-population", "active-satellite-density-reached-parity-with-debris-density-in-500-600km-leo-band-2025", "orbital-data-center-governance-gap-activating-faster-than-prior-space-sectors-as-astronomers-challenge-spacex-1m-filing-before-comment-period-closes"]
---

# SpaceX's 1M satellite proposal spans both drag-mitigated low-altitude bands (500-600km, 5-year deorbit) and already-Kessler-critical high-altitude bands (700km+), but the FCC filing treats the entire 500-2,000km range as a uniform commons governance question when the physics are fundamentally different across this range

SpaceX's January 30, 2026 FCC filing proposes deploying up to 1 million satellites across a 500-2,000km altitude range in 'narrow orbital shells spanning up to 50km each.' This range spans two fundamentally different debris risk regimes with distinct physics. At 500-600km (current Starlink altitude), atmospheric drag causes controlled objects to deorbit within approximately 5 years, providing a natural cleaning mechanism that partially mitigates individual satellite failures. The existing ~11,200 tracked objects at this band demonstrate this can be managed operationally despite high density. However, above 700km, multiple simulation studies confirm debris continues to grow even with zero new launches because critical density has already been exceeded. Objects above 700km deorbit in decades to centuries with no natural cleaning mechanism. The sun-synchronous corridor (780-820km) is the most critically congested zone. SpaceX's filing provides no quantitative analysis of band-specific collision probability impact and treats the entire 500-2,000km range uniformly when the physics—and therefore the governance obligation—are completely different. The filing's claim of targeting 'largely unused orbital altitudes' is unsupported given the ITU filing tray now contains 746,909 total satellite applications. This altitude-stratified risk assessment reveals that the Kessler urgency at 550km is modulated by atmospheric drag, while at 700km+ it is unambiguous, making the governance critique more precise and harder to dismiss.
