---
type: entity
entity_type: person
name: Nicolas Rasmont
status: active
domains: [internet-finance, ai-alignment]
---

# Nicolas Rasmont

LessWrong contributor known for formal critiques of futarchy mechanism design.

## Timeline

- **2025-12-01** — Published "Futarchy is Parasitic on What It Tries to Govern" on LessWrong, arguing conditional decision markets are structurally incapable of estimating causal policy effects due to selection vs causation bias

## Contributions

**Futarchy Critique:** Developed the most formally stated structural impossibility argument against futarchy, claiming the mechanism is systematically biased toward selection correlations rather than causal effects even when perfectly implemented with rational traders.

## Related Work

- Builds on Dynomight's 2022-2025 series on conditional markets
- Part of active LessWrong debate on futarchy's epistemic foundations
- Distinct from implementation critiques (manipulation, fraud, illiquidity) - focuses on structural mechanism design