---
confidence: likely
created: 2026-02-17
depends_on:
- the Artemis Accords replace multilateral treaty-making with bilateral norm-setting to create governance through coalition practice rather than universal consensus
- space governance gaps are widening not narrowing because technology advances exponentially while institutional design advances linearly
description: US-led Artemis coalition (61 nations) and China-led ILRS coalition (17+ nations) create incompatible governance frameworks for the Moon, both targeting the south pole
domain: space-development
related:
- attractor-authoritarian-lock-in
source: Astra, web research compilation February 2026
type: claim
---

# Lunar development is bifurcating into two competing governance blocs that mirror terrestrial geopolitical alignment

Space settlement is developing along two parallel tracks with different legal frameworks, technology standards, governance models, and resource claims. The US-led Artemis Accords coalition has 61 signatories (28 European, 15 Asian, 7 South American, 5 North American, 4 African, 2 Oceanian), while the China-led International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) partnership includes 17 countries and 50+ research institutions, with ambitions to expand to 50 countries, 500 institutions, and 5,000 scientists.

Both blocs target the lunar south pole. Artemis plans crewed landings starting mid-2027/2028 with a base camp evolving through the 2030s. China's ILRS targets Phase 1 completion by 2035 and Phase 2 (connecting south pole, equator, and far side) by 2050. The lack of coordination between these blocs on safety zones, frequency allocation, and resource rights creates escalating conflict risk as both approach operational phases in the 2030s.

This bifurcation is a live test case for whether governance design can enable coordination between competing power blocs without centralized authority. The Artemis model uses bilateral norm-setting (coalition of the willing) rather than multilateral treaty-making (universal consensus via UN). Whether this produces durable governance or fragmented competing frameworks is one of the defining institutional design questions of the next 30 years.

## Evidence
- Artemis Accords: 61 signatories across 6 continents (as of January 2026)
- China ILRS: 17 countries, 50+ research institutions
- Both targeting lunar south pole water ice deposits
- No coordination mechanism between the two blocs

## Challenges
Practical cooperation may emerge bottom-up through shared interests (safety zones, debris avoidance, emergency assistance) even without top-down agreement. The Antarctic Treaty precedent shows that competing powers can cooperate in shared environments.

---

Relevant Notes:
- [[the Artemis Accords replace multilateral treaty-making with bilateral norm-setting to create governance through coalition practice rather than universal consensus]] — the governance model driving the US-led bloc
- [[space governance gaps are widening not narrowing because technology advances exponentially while institutional design advances linearly]] — the bifurcation is one manifestation of the widening governance gap

Topics:
- [[space exploration and development]]
