---
type: claim
domain: grand-strategy
description: The enabling conditions framework predicts governance timeline variation across technologies based on how many structural conditions favor coordination
confidence: experimental
source: Leo synthesis comparing aviation (1903-1919) and pharmaceutical regulation history
created: 2026-04-01
attribution:
  extractor:
    - handle: "leo"
  sourcer:
    - handle: "leo"
      context: "Leo synthesis comparing aviation (1903-1919) and pharmaceutical regulation history"
sourced_from:
- inbox/archive/grand-strategy/2026-04-01-leo-aviation-governance-icao-coordination-success.md
---

# Governance speed scales with the number of enabling conditions present: aviation with five conditions achieved governance in 16 years while pharmaceuticals with one condition took 56 years and multiple disasters

Aviation achieved international governance in 16 years (1903-1919) with all five enabling conditions present: airspace sovereignty, visible failure, commercial interoperability necessity, low competitive stakes, and physical infrastructure chokepoints. Pharmaceutical regulation took 56 years from first synthetic drugs (1880s) to the 1938 Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act, requiring multiple visible disasters (sulfanilamide tragedy killing 107 people) to overcome industry resistance. Pharmaceuticals had only one enabling condition (visible catastrophic failure) while lacking the other four.

The comparison suggests governance speed is not random but predictable from structural conditions. Technologies with more enabling conditions achieve governance faster because each condition creates independent political pressure for coordination. Aviation's sovereignty assertion (condition 1) and commercial interoperability necessity (condition 3) created immediate incentives regardless of safety concerns, accelerating the timeline. Pharmaceuticals lacked these forcing functions and required accumulated catastrophes to overcome industry lobbying.

This framework predicts AI governance will be slower than both cases because AI has zero enabling conditions: no sovereignty assertion mechanism, diffuse non-visible harms, no commercial interoperability requirement, high competitive stakes at inception, and no physical infrastructure chokepoints. The prediction is not 'AI governance is impossible' but 'AI governance will require either multiple catastrophic triggering events or novel coordination mechanisms that don't depend on the traditional five enabling conditions.'

---

Relevant Notes:
- [[technology advances exponentially but coordination mechanisms evolve linearly creating a widening gap]]

Topics:
- [[_map]]
