---
type: claim
domain: space-development
description: "MarketsandMarkets projects $62.8B for in-space manufacturing by 2040; Allied Market Research projects $135.3B including servicing; total space economy $1-2T by 2040"
confidence: experimental
source: "Astra, web research compilation February 2026"
created: 2026-02-17
secondary_domains:
  - manufacturing
depends_on:
  - "the space economy reached 613 billion in 2024 and is converging on 1 trillion by 2032 making it a major global industry not a speculative frontier"
  - "Starship achieving routine operations at sub-100 dollars per kg is the single largest enabling condition for the entire space industrial economy"
sourced_from:
- inbox/archive/2026-02-17-astra-space-economy-market.md
---

# In-space manufacturing market projected at 62 billion by 2040 with the overall space economy reaching 1-2 trillion

Multiple market research firms project rapid growth in the space economy over the next 15 years. MarketsandMarkets projects the in-space manufacturing market at $62.8 billion by 2040. Allied Market Research projects $135.3 billion when including servicing and transportation. The overall space economy is projected at $1-2 trillion by 2040, up from roughly $500 billion today. Space-based solar power alone is projected to grow from $630 million (2025) to $4.61 billion by 2041 at 13.24% CAGR.

These projections depend on a cascade of technology milestones landing roughly on schedule: Starship achieving routine operations and sub-$100/kg launch costs, propellant depot infrastructure becoming operational, pharmaceutical and semiconductor manufacturing reaching commercial cadence, lunar surface power and ISRU demonstrations succeeding, and at least one commercial space station becoming fully operational. Each dependency creates compound uncertainty -- the probability of the full projection is the product of individual milestone probabilities.

The space mining market specifically is estimated at $50 million (2025) growing to $800 million by 2035 -- still small relative to manufacturing and services. The signal in these projections is not the specific numbers (which carry high uncertainty) but the convergence of independent analyses on the same order of magnitude. Multiple research firms, government projections, and industry analyses all point to a space economy 2-4x its current size by 2040, with manufacturing as the highest-growth segment.

## Evidence
- MarketsandMarkets — $62.8B in-space manufacturing by 2040
- Allied Market Research — $135.3B including servicing and transport
- Space-based solar power — $630M (2025) to $4.61B (2041)
- Space mining — $50M (2025) to $800M (2035)
- Convergence of independent analyses on $1-2T total space economy

## Challenges
All projections depend on cascading technology milestones. The compound probability of the full projection is substantially lower than any individual milestone probability. Market sizing methodologies for emerging space industries carry inherent uncertainty.

---

Relevant Notes:
- [[the space economy reached 613 billion in 2024 and is converging on 1 trillion by 2032 making it a major global industry not a speculative frontier]] — the current baseline these projections build from
- [[Starship achieving routine operations at sub-100 dollars per kg is the single largest enabling condition for the entire space industrial economy]] — the keystone variable most projections depend on

Topics:
- [[space exploration and development]]
