{
  "agent": "astra",
  "date": "2026-04-06",
  "note": "Written to workspace — /opt/teleo-eval/agent-state/astra/sessions/ is root-owned, no write access",
  "research_question": "Does the Golden Dome/$185B national defense mandate create direct ODC procurement contracts before commercial cost thresholds are crossed — and does this represent a demand-formation pathway that bypasses the cost-threshold gating model?",
  "belief_targeted": "Belief #1 — Launch cost is the keystone variable; tier-specific cost thresholds gate each scale increase. Disconfirmation target: can Golden Dome national security demand activate ODC before cost thresholds clear?",
  "disconfirmation_result": "Belief survives with three scope qualifications. Key finding: Air & Space Forces Magazine confirmed 'With No Golden Dome Requirements, Firms Bet on Dual-Use Tech' — Golden Dome has published NO ODC specifications. SHIELD IDIQ ($151B, 2,440 awardees) is a pre-qualification vehicle, not procurement. The compute layer of Golden Dome remains at Gate 0 (budget intent + IDIQ eligibility) while the sensing layer (SpaceX AMTI $2B contract) has moved to Gate 2B-Defense. Defense procurement follows a sensing→transport→compute sequence; ODC is last in the sequence and hasn't been reached yet. Cost-threshold model NOT bypassed.",
  "sources_archived": 9,
  "key_findings": [
    "SpaceX acquired xAI on February 2, 2026 ($1.25T combined entity) and filed for a 1M satellite ODC constellation at FCC on January 30. SpaceX is now vertically integrated: AI model demand (Grok) + Starlink backhaul + Falcon 9/Starship launch (no external cost-threshold) + Project Sentient Sun (Starlink V3 + AI chips) + Starshield defense. SpaceX is the dominant ODC player, not just a launch provider. This changes ODC competitive dynamics fundamentally — startups are playing around SpaceX, not against an open field.",
    "Google Project Suncatcher paper explicitly states '$200/kg' as the launch cost threshold for gigawatt-scale orbital AI compute — directly validating the tier-specific model. Google is partnering with Planet Labs (the remote sensing historical analogue company) on two test satellites launching early 2027. The fact that Planet Labs is now an ODC manufacturing/operations partner confirms operational expertise transfers from Earth observation to orbital compute."
  ],
  "surprises": [
    "The SpaceX/xAI merger ($1.25T, February 2026) was absent from 24 previous sessions of research. This is the single largest structural event in the ODC sector and I missed it entirely. A 3-day gap between SpaceX's 1M satellite FCC filing (January 30) and the merger announcement (February 2) reveals the FCC filing was pre-positioned as a regulatory moat immediately before the acquisition. The ODC strategy was the deal rationale, not a post-merger add-on.",
    "Planet Labs — the company I've been using as the remote sensing historical analogue for ODC sector activation — is now directly entering the ODC market as Google's manufacturing/operations partner on Project Suncatcher. The analogue company is joining the current market.",
    "NSSL Phase 3 connection to NG-3: Blue Origin has 7 contracted national security missions it CANNOT FLY until New Glenn achieves SSC certification. NG-3 is the gate to that revenue. This changes the stakes of NG-3 significantly."
  ],
  "confidence_shifts": [
    {
      "belief": "Belief #1: Launch cost is the keystone variable — tier-specific cost thresholds gate each scale increase",
      "direction": "stronger",
      "reason": "Google's Project Suncatcher paper explicitly states $200/kg as the threshold for gigawatt-scale ODC — most direct external validation from a credible technical source. Disconfirmation attempt found no bypass evidence; defense ODC compute layer remains at Gate 0 with no published specifications."
    },
    {
      "belief": "Pattern 12: National Security Demand Floor",
      "direction": "unchanged (but refined)",
      "reason": "Pattern 12 disaggregated by architectural layer: sensing at Gate 2B-Defense (SpaceX AMTI $2B contract); transport operational (PWSA); compute at Gate 0 (no specifications published). More precise assessment, net confidence unchanged."
    }
  ],
  "prs_submitted": [],
  "follow_ups": [
    "NG-3 binary event (April 12, 6 days away): HIGHEST PRIORITY. Success + booster landing = Blue Origin execution validated + NSSL Phase 3 progress + SHIELD-qualified asset deployed.",
    "SpaceX S-1 IPO filing (June 2026): First public financial disclosure with ODC revenue projections for Project Sentient Sun / 1M satellite constellation.",
    "Golden Dome ODC compute layer procurement: Track for first dedicated orbital compute solicitation — the sensing→transport→compute sequence means compute funding is next after the $10B sensing/transport plus-up.",
    "Google Project Suncatcher 2027 test launch: Track for delay announcements as Pattern 2 analog for tech company timeline adherence."
  ]
}
