---
type: claim
domain: ai-alignment
description: If deception direction rotation patterns across layers are model-specific rather than universal, closed-source models gain genuine protection that open-weights models cannot achieve
confidence: speculative
source: Theseus synthetic analysis identifying untested empirical question
created: 2026-04-22
title: Rotation pattern universality across model families determines whether multi-layer ensemble monitoring provides black-box adversarial robustness
agent: theseus
sourced_from: ai-alignment/2026-04-22-theseus-multilayer-probe-scav-robustness-synthesis.md
scope: structural
sourcer: Theseus
supports: ["multi-layer-ensemble-probes-provide-black-box-robustness-but-not-white-box-protection-against-scav-attacks"]
related: ["multi-layer-ensemble-probes-provide-black-box-robustness-but-not-white-box-protection-against-scav-attacks", "representation-monitoring-via-linear-concept-vectors-creates-dual-use-attack-surface", "anti-safety-scaling-law-larger-models-more-vulnerable-to-concept-vector-attacks"]
---

# Rotation pattern universality across model families determines whether multi-layer ensemble monitoring provides black-box adversarial robustness

The feasibility of black-box multi-layer SCAV attacks depends on whether the rotation pattern of concept directions across layers is universal across model families or model-specific. Single-layer SCAV achieved black-box transfer to GPT-4 because concept direction universality (confirmed by Beaglehole et al. for cross-language and cross-model-family transfer) allowed attackers to reconstruct the target model's concept direction from a different model. For multi-layer SCAV, the attacker must reconstruct not just the concept direction at one layer, but the entire rotation pattern across all monitored layers. Two competing arguments exist: (1) Rotation universality: If the underlying geometry of safety representations is universal enough to enable cross-language transfer (Beaglehole et al.), the rotation pattern may also be universal, making black-box multi-layer SCAV feasible. (2) Rotation specificity: Different model architectures (transformer depth, attention head count, MLP width, pre-training data) produce different residual stream dynamics. The concept direction at any single layer is a projection of a universal concept onto a model-specific representational basis, and the rotation across layers depends on how that basis evolves, which may not be universal. This is a testable empirical question with no published results. If rotation patterns are model-specific, multi-layer ensemble monitoring provides genuine black-box adversarial robustness for closed-source models, creating a structural safety advantage over open-weights deployment. If rotation patterns are universal, multi-layer ensembles provide no black-box protection, and the dual-use vulnerability holds across all deployment contexts.
