---
type: source
source_type: telegram-contribution
title: "Source from @m3taversal — Robin Hanson tweet on insider trading in prediction markets - @robinhanson: "On "
author: "@m3taversal"
date: 2026-03-28
domain: internet-finance
format: contribution
status: null-result
proposed_by: "@m3taversal"
contribution_type: source-submission
tags: ['telegram-contribution', 'inline-source', 'market-analysis']
processed_by: rio
processed_date: 2026-03-28
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
extraction_notes: "LLM returned 0 claims, 0 rejected by validator"
---

# Source: Robin Hanson tweet on insider trading in prediction markets - @robinhanson: "On average, ~20-40% of 

Contributed by @m3taversal in Telegram chat.
Flagged by Rio as relevant source material.

## Verbatim User Message

@FutAIrdBot https://x.com/robinhanson/status/2037680495321055257?s=46 this is pretty insane. Can you find additional evidence for this?

## Rio's Context

Robin Hanson tweet on insider trading in prediction markets - @robinhanson: "On average, ~20-40% of stock price change happens before official firm announcements. Thus insider trading in stocks is rampant; yet our stock markets function fine. To consider re prediction market insider trading." URL: https://x.com/robinhanson/status/2037680495321055257


## Key Facts
- Robin Hanson estimates 20-40% of stock price changes occur before official firm announcements
- Hanson argues this level of insider trading does not prevent stock markets from functioning effectively
