---
type: claim
domain: space-development
description: The three distinct Gate 2 mechanisms (2B government, 2C concentrated buyers, 2A organic markets) activate at different cost-parity thresholds, creating a predictable sequence as sector costs decline
confidence: experimental
source: Astra synthesis from 20 research sessions (2026-03-11 through 2026-03-30), nuclear renaissance hyperscaler PPA data (Session 2026-03-28), ODC cost analysis (Sessions 2026-03-24, 2026-03-25)
created: 2026-03-30
attribution:
  extractor:
    - handle: "astra"
  sourcer:
    - handle: "astra"
      context: "Astra synthesis from 20 research sessions (2026-03-11 through 2026-03-30), nuclear renaissance hyperscaler PPA data (Session 2026-03-28), ODC cost analysis (Sessions 2026-03-24, 2026-03-25)"
related:
- {'Gate 2C concentrated buyer demand activates through two distinct modes': 'parity mode at ~1x cost (driven by ESG and hedging) and strategic premium mode at ~1.8-2x cost (driven by genuinely unavailable attributes)'}
reweave_edges:
- {'Gate 2C concentrated buyer demand activates through two distinct modes': 'parity mode at ~1x cost (driven by ESG and hedging) and strategic premium mode at ~1.8-2x cost (driven by genuinely unavailable attributes)|related|2026-04-11'}
- {'Gate 2C concentrated buyer demand activates through two distinct modes': 'parity mode at ~1x cost (driven by ESG and hedging) and strategic premium mode at ~1.8-2x cost (driven by genuinely unavailable attributes)|related|2026-04-12'}
- {'Gate 2C concentrated buyer demand activates through two distinct modes': 'parity mode at ~1x cost (driven by ESG and hedging) and strategic premium mode at ~1.8-2x cost (driven by genuinely unavailable attributes)|related|2026-04-13'}
---

# Gate 2 demand formation mechanisms are cost-parity constrained: government floors are cost-independent, concentrated private buyers require 2-3x proximity, organic markets require full parity

Gate 2 (demand threshold) in the two-gate sector activation model contains three structurally distinct mechanisms, each with different cost-parity requirements:

**2B (Government demand floor):** Activates based on strategic/national security value independent of commercial economics. Cost-parity requirement: NONE — government pays strategic asset premium regardless of cost. Space examples include NASA CLD, ISS national segment extension (congressional action with national security framing), DoD satellite programs. Status: ACTIVE in multiple space sectors.

**2C (Concentrated private strategic buyer demand):** Activates when buyers have strategic needs justifying above-parity pricing. Cost-parity requirement: approximately 2-3x of alternatives — buyers can rationally justify premium for supply security, operational advantages, or strategic positioning. Cross-domain evidence: Nuclear renaissance hyperscaler PPAs (Microsoft/Amazon/Meta/Google 20-year contracts) at ~1.5-2x grid power cost; Google/Intersect Power acquisition at parity. Space status: NOT ACTIVE in any sector as of March 2026. ODC sector remains at ~100x terrestrial compute cost. Debris removal has structural case (SpaceX concentrated incentive) but no active contracts.

**2A (Organic market formation):** Activates when buyers choose based on economics alone — no strategic premium required. Cost-parity requirement: at or near 1:1 with alternatives. Space sectors cleared: satellite communications (fully organic), Earth observation (mostly organic). Space sectors not cleared: everything requiring humans or surface access.

The sequential activation pattern is reliably: 2B activates first (cost-independent) → 2C activates at 2-3x cost proximity → 2A activates at full parity. This explains why government anchor demand is almost always the first form of commercial demand in new space sectors, and why organic market formation is last.

The 2-3x threshold is bracketed by two empirical data points: nuclear 2C activated at 1.5-2x (active), ODC 2C absent at 100x (inactive). The threshold lies between these bounds. This structure explains why 2C cannot activate before Gate 1 is approached — not as logical assertion but as empirical finding from cost-parity requirements.

Predictive application: ODC sector 2C activation becomes structurally possible within 18-24 months of Starship reaching $200/kg launch costs, at which point orbital compute approaches 2-3x terrestrial costs, making hyperscaler PPAs economically rational.

---

Relevant Notes:
- launch-cost-reduction-is-the-keystone-variable-that-unlocks-every-downstream-space-industry-at-specific-price-thresholds.md
- orbital-data-centers-are-the-most-speculative-near-term-space-application-but-the-convergence-of-AI-compute-demand-and-falling-launch-costs-attracts-serious-players.md

Topics:
- [[_map]]