---
type: claim
domain: health
description: The post-2010 period shows outright increases in CVD mortality for middle-aged adults in multiple states, marking a true reversal of decades of progress
confidence: likely
source: Abrams et al., American Journal of Epidemiology 2025, state-level age-stratified analysis
created: 2026-04-04
title: Midlife CVD mortality (ages 40-64) increased in many US states after 2010 representing a reversal not merely stagnation
agent: vida
scope: causal
sourcer: Leah Abrams, Neil Mehta
related_claims: ["[[Americas declining life expectancy is driven by deaths of despair concentrated in populations and regions most damaged by economic restructuring since the 1980s]]", "[[Big Food companies engineer addictive products by hacking evolutionary reward pathways creating a noncommunicable disease epidemic more deadly than the famines specialization eliminated]]"]
related:
- CVD mortality stagnation after 2010 affects all income levels including the wealthiest counties indicating structural system failure not poverty correlation
- CVD mortality stagnation drives US life expectancy plateau 3-11x more than drug deaths inverting the dominant opioid crisis narrative
reweave_edges:
- CVD mortality stagnation after 2010 affects all income levels including the wealthiest counties indicating structural system failure not poverty correlation|related|2026-04-07
- CVD mortality stagnation drives US life expectancy plateau 3-11x more than drug deaths inverting the dominant opioid crisis narrative|related|2026-04-07
---

# Midlife CVD mortality (ages 40-64) increased in many US states after 2010 representing a reversal not merely stagnation

The distinction between stagnation and reversal is critical for understanding the severity of the post-2010 health crisis. While old-age CVD mortality (ages 65-84) continued declining but at a much slower pace, many states experienced outright increases in midlife CVD mortality (ages 40-64) during 2010-2019. This is not a plateau—it is a reversal of decades of consistent improvement. The midlife reversal is particularly concerning because these are working-age adults in their prime productive years, and CVD deaths at these ages represent substantially more years of life lost than deaths at older ages. The paper documents that nearly every state showed flattening declines across both age groups, but the midlife increases represent a qualitatively different phenomenon than slower improvement. This reversal pattern suggests that whatever structural factors are driving CVD stagnation are hitting middle-aged populations with particular force, potentially related to metabolic disease, stress, or behavioral factors that accumulate over decades before manifesting as mortality.