---
type: claim
domain: entertainment
description: "The 80% of blockbuster film budgets spent on below-the-line crew, post-production, and overhead — roughly $160-170M on a $200M median blockbuster — will follow technology cost curves downward as AI replaces labor across every production stage, potentially falling by orders of magnitude"
confidence: experimental
source: "Clay, from Doug Shapiro's 'AI Use Cases in Hollywood' (The Mediator, September 2023)"
created: 2026-03-06
---

# Non-ATL production costs will converge with the cost of compute as AI replaces labor across the production chain

The median blockbuster film budget is approximately $200 million. Shapiro's breakdown (from discussions with producers, consistent with Stephen Follows' estimates): ~15-20% above the line (ATL) talent, ~50% below the line (BTL) crew and production, ~25-30% post-production (mostly VFX), remainder other. All in, roughly two-thirds of the total budget is labor. The most labor-intensive productions employ thousands — Avengers: Infinity War involved 4,500 people; Game of Thrones listed over 9,000 across eight seasons.

AI use cases already exist at every production stage:
- **Development**: Chatbots for ideation, text-to-image for storyboards/animatics
- **Pre-production**: NeRF/text-to-3D for faster previs, automated storyboards
- **Production**: Text-to-video for B-roll, potential elimination of soundstages/locations, costumes/makeup
- **Post-production**: AI-assisted editing, rotoscoping, VFX co-pilots, automated localization

The cost convergence logic: if human creative teams and actors remain necessary (Shapiro's Scenario 2-3), ATL costs (~20% of budget) persist but the other 80% — currently $160-170M on a median blockbuster, or ~$1.5M per minute — becomes subject to technology cost curves. As Shapiro writes: "Over time, the cost curve for all non-ATL costs may converge with the cost curve of compute."

If non-ATL costs fall to thousands or millions rather than hundreds of millions, the economic model flips. Studios no longer need to take on massive risk, so creatives can forego guaranteed payments, self-finance, and keep equity — meaning ATL costs as currently structured may also collapse. Even with significant human involvement, upfront production costs could fall by orders of magnitude.

A concrete early signal: a 9-person team reportedly produced an animated film for ~$700K. The trajectory is from $200M to potentially $1M or less for competitive content, with the timeline gated by consumer acceptance rather than technology capability.


### Additional Evidence (confirm)
*Source: [[2026-01-01-mckinsey-ai-film-tv-production-future]] | Added: 2026-03-16*

McKinsey projects $10B of US original content spend (approximately 20% of total) will be addressable by AI by 2030, with single-digit productivity improvements already visible in some use cases. However, AI-generated output is not yet at quality level to drive meaningful disruption in premium production.


### Additional Evidence (confirm)
*Source: [[2026-02-01-seedance-2-ai-video-benchmark]] | Added: 2026-03-16*

Seedance 2.0 benchmark data from 2026 shows near-perfect hand anatomy scores (complex finger movements with zero visible hallucinations), native 2K resolution, and 4-15 second dynamic duration. Hand anatomy was the most visible quality barrier in 2024; crossing this threshold with phoneme-level lip-sync across 8+ languages indicates AI video has reached the technical capability for live-action substitution in many production contexts.

---

Relevant Notes:
- [[GenAI is simultaneously sustaining and disruptive depending on whether users pursue progressive syntheticization or progressive control]] — studios see cost savings; independents see elimination of the primary barrier to entry
- [[media disruption follows two sequential phases as distribution moats fall first and creation moats fall second]] — non-ATL cost convergence with compute IS the creation moat falling
- [[Hollywood talent will embrace AI because narrowing creative paths within the studio system leave few alternatives]] — falling production costs enable the talent exodus

Topics:
- [[entertainment]]
- [[teleological-economics]]
