---
type: claim
domain: grand-strategy
description: The gap between technical capability and coordination has been bridged by luck rather than governance eliminating risk, as evidenced by Cuban Missile Crisis, Able Archer, and other documented near-misses
confidence: experimental
source: Leo synthesis, declassified near-miss documentation (Arkhipov 1962, Petrov 1983, Norwegian Rocket 1995)
created: 2026-04-01
attribution:
  extractor:
    - handle: "leo"
  sourcer:
    - handle: "leo"
      context: "Leo synthesis, declassified near-miss documentation (Arkhipov 1962, Petrov 1983, Norwegian Rocket 1995)"
---

# Nuclear near-miss frequency qualifies NPT coordination success as luck-dependent because 80 years of non-use with 0.5-1% annual risk represents improbable survival not stable governance

The nuclear governance 'success story' is qualified by the near-miss record showing coordination is fragile and luck-dependent. Documented incidents include: 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis where Vasili Arkhipov prevented nuclear launch from Soviet submarine; 1983 Able Archer where NATO exercise nearly triggered Soviet preemptive strike and Stanislav Petrov prevented false-alarm response; 1995 Norwegian Rocket Incident where Boris Yeltsin brought nuclear briefcase; 1999 Kargil conflict with Pakistan-India nuclear signaling; 2022-2026 Russia-Ukraine conflict with unprecedented nuclear signaling frequency.

If annual near-miss probability is 0.5-1%, then 80 years without nuclear war represents an improbably lucky run rather than stable coordination achievement. The coordination success (non-proliferation, non-use) is real but the risk has not been eliminated—it has been managed through a combination of governance mechanisms and fortunate outcomes in crisis moments.

This supports rather than challenges the broader thesis that coordination is structurally harder than technology development. Nuclear governance is the BEST case of technology-governance coupling in the most dangerous domain, and even here the coordination is partial, unstable, and luck-dependent. The 'success' demonstrates that even optimal enabling conditions (triggering event, physical manifestation, security architecture) produce fragile rather than robust coordination.

---

Relevant Notes:
- [[nuclear-governance-succeeded-through-security-architecture-as-fifth-enabling-condition-where-extended-deterrence-substituted-for-proliferation-incentives]]
- [[technology advances exponentially but coordination mechanisms evolve linearly creating a widening gap]]

Topics:
- [[_map]]
