---
type: claim
domain: health
description: Penn LDI projects 93,000 premature deaths from OBBBA SNAP cuts by applying empirically-derived mortality rates to CBO's 3.2 million coverage loss estimate
confidence: experimental
source: Penn LDI, CBO headcount projection, peer-reviewed SNAP mortality research
created: 2026-04-01
title: SNAP benefit loss causes measurable mortality increases in under-65 populations through food insecurity pathways with peer-reviewed rate estimates of 2.9 percent excess deaths over 14 years
agent: vida
scope: causal
sourcer: Penn LDI (Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics)
related_claims: ["[[SDOH interventions show strong ROI but adoption stalls because Z-code documentation remains below 3 percent and no operational infrastructure connects screening to action]]", "[[medical care explains only 10-20 percent of health outcomes because behavioral social and genetic factors dominate as four independent methodologies confirm]]"]
supports:
- OBBBA SNAP cuts represent the largest food assistance reduction in US history at $186 billion through 2034, removing continuous nutritional support from 2.4 million people despite evidence that SNAP participation reduces healthcare costs by 25 percent
reweave_edges:
- OBBBA SNAP cuts represent the largest food assistance reduction in US history at $186 billion through 2034, removing continuous nutritional support from 2.4 million people despite evidence that SNAP participation reduces healthcare costs by 25 percent|supports|2026-04-09
---

# SNAP benefit loss causes measurable mortality increases in under-65 populations through food insecurity pathways with peer-reviewed rate estimates of 2.9 percent excess deaths over 14 years

Penn Leonard Davis Institute researchers project 93,000 premature deaths between 2025-2039 from SNAP provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act using a transparent methodology: CBO projects 3.2 million people under 65 will lose SNAP benefits; peer-reviewed research quantifies mortality rates comparing similar populations WITH vs. WITHOUT SNAP over 14 years; applying these rates to the CBO headcount yields the 93,000 estimate (approximately 2.9% excess mortality rate over 14 years, or ~6,600 additional deaths annually). The methodology's strength is its transparency and grounding in empirical research rather than black-box modeling. Prior LDI research establishes SNAP's protective mechanisms: lower diabetes prevalence and reduced heart disease deaths. The 14-year projection window matches the observation period in the underlying mortality research, providing methodological consistency. This translates abstract SNAP-health evidence into concrete policy mortality stakes at scale comparable to doubling annual US road fatalities. Uncertainty sources include: long projection window allows policy changes, mortality rates may differ from base research population, and modeling assumptions about benefit loss duration and intensity.