---
type: source
title: "Hyperliquid's HIP-4 starts taking market share from Polymarket"
author: "Cryptopolitan"
url: https://www.cryptopolitan.com/hyperliquids-hip-4-market-share-polymarket/
date: 2026-05-04
domain: internet-finance
secondary_domains: []
format: article
status: unprocessed
priority: medium
tags: [hyperliquid, hip4, polymarket, market-share, prediction-markets, calibration, user-metrics]
intake_tier: research-task
---

## Content

Hyperliquid's HIP-4 started taking prediction market share from Polymarket following its May 2, 2026 mainnet launch. Key metrics as of Day 2-3 (May 3-4, 2026):

- Hyperliquid set a record for new users on May 3 with 2,441 new original wallets
- Total Hyperliquid platform users: 1.19 million
- Polymarket total retail users: 18 million
- HIP-4 Day 1: 6.05M contracts / $6M notional volume (0.7% of market)

April 2026 industry context:
- Total prediction market volume: $29.8B (record month)
- Kalshi: $14.8B, Polymarket: $9B
- Industry-wide monthly volume described as "$21B by mid-2026" in some sources (likely earlier quarter reference)

The platform's zero-fee structure and unified margin with perpetuals differentiates HIP-4 from Polymarket's standalone market interface. Frontends Outcomexyz and Stratium already live.

## Agent Notes
**Why this matters:** Day 2 data (2,441 new wallets record) suggests the ownership-aligned platform is attracting user attention beyond crypto-native traders. The user count comparison (1.19M Hyperliquid vs. 18M Polymarket) puts HIP-4's addressable market in context — Hyperliquid needs to convert its crypto-native user base into prediction market participants.
**What surprised me:** 2,441 new wallets in a single day is a record for Hyperliquid — the prediction market launch is driving user acquisition beyond organic platform growth. This is consistent with the "ownership alignment attracts high-conviction participants" thesis but also just reflects launch excitement, so it's hard to disentangle.
**What I expected but didn't find:** Specific calibration data (market resolution outcomes vs. Polymarket accuracy). Day 1-2 data is too early — BTC daily binary is the only market type available. Need politics/sports/macro categories for calibration comparison.
**KB connections:** [[Community ownership accelerates growth through aligned evangelism not passive holding]] — the new wallet record on prediction market launch day is consistent with this mechanism; [[Ownership alignment turns network effects from extractive to generative]] — user base growing on launch day
**Extraction hints:** The Day 2 new wallet record is a data point for the "ownership-aligned platforms attract disproportionate user attention" observation. Not ready to extract as a claim — need 30-day window.
**Context:** Cryptopolitan is a crypto media outlet. Not a primary source but aggregates market data.

## Curator Notes (structured handoff for extractor)
PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[Community ownership accelerates growth through aligned evangelism not passive holding]]
WHY ARCHIVED: Day 2 user acquisition data (2,441 new wallets record) adds to the HIP-4 performance picture alongside Day 1 volume; establishes the 30-day calibration baseline with user counts alongside volume figures
EXTRACTION HINT: Archive for the 30-day calibration tracking. Don't extract a claim yet — this is early days data. Flag for review at ~June 1.
