---
type: claim
domain: internet-finance
description: "Early futard.io data shows 2 of 34 ICOs reached funding thresholds in first 2 days establishing baseline success rate for permissionless futarchy launches"
confidence: experimental
source: "Pine Analytics (@PineAnalytics), futard.io launch metrics tweet, 2026-03-05"
created: 2026-03-11
---

# Permissionless futarchy launches achieve 5.9 percent funding success rate creating market-based quality filter

Futard.io's first 48 hours of operation produced 34 permissionless ICO launches with only 2 reaching funding thresholds (5.9% success rate). This high failure rate functions as a market-based quality filter rather than a bug—it demonstrates that permissionless launch platforms use capital allocation as a selection mechanism rather than curator gatekeeping.

The 34 launches in 2 days represents a 17x increase in launch velocity compared to MetaDAO's curated approach (6 launches across all of Q4 2025). The capital committed was meaningful—$15.6M across 929 wallets averaging ~$16.8K per wallet—indicating genuine investor interest rather than spam activity.

The 94.1% failure rate creates natural selection pressure: only projects that can attract sufficient capital through market signaling survive, while failed launches don't damage the platform's reputation due to the brand separation architecture between futard.io and MetaDAO. This validates the architectural decision to separate permissionless launch volume from the curated platform's brand.

## Evidence

- Pine Analytics reported 34 ICOs created on futard.io in approximately 2 days (2026-03-05)
- 2 of 34 projects reached funding thresholds and launched successfully
- $15.6M total deposits from 929 unique wallets
- Average deposit of ~$16,800 per wallet
- Comparison baseline: MetaDAO's curated platform had 6 launches across Q4 2025

## Market Dynamics

Pine Analytics observed "people are reluctant to be the first to put money into these raises"—first-mover hesitancy creates coordination friction where deposits follow momentum rather than leading it. This maps to the liquidity chicken-and-egg problem in futarchy adoption.

The permissionless model shifts quality control from ex-ante curation to ex-post market selection. Failed launches are expected and healthy—they represent the market's rejection of weak projects without requiring centralized gatekeepers to make those judgments. The 5.9% success rate establishes a baseline for what market-driven quality filtering produces in permissionless launch environments.

---

Relevant Notes:
- [[futarchy-governed-permissionless-launches-require-brand-separation-to-manage-reputational-liability-because-failed-projects-on-a-curated-platform-damage-the-platforms-credibility.md]]
- [[MetaDAO-is-the-futarchy-launchpad-on-Solana-where-projects-raise-capital-through-unruggable-ICOs-governed-by-conditional-markets-creating-the-first-platform-for-ownership-coins-at-scale.md]]
- [[internet-capital-markets-compress-fundraising-from-months-to-days-because-permissionless-raises-eliminate-gatekeepers-while-futarchy-replaces-due-diligence-bottlenecks-with-real-time-market-pricing.md]]

Topics:
- [[domains/internet-finance/_map]]
