---
type: source
title: "Effects of Semaglutide on Chronic Kidney Disease in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes (FLOW Trial)"
author: "New England Journal of Medicine"
url: https://www.nejm.org/doi/abs/10.1056/NEJMoa2403347
date: 2024-05-29
domain: health
secondary_domains: []
format: paper
status: unprocessed
priority: high
tags: [glp-1, semaglutide, CKD, kidney-disease, FLOW-trial, organ-protection]
---

## Content

The FLOW trial — the first dedicated kidney outcomes trial with a GLP-1 receptor agonist. N=3,533 patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease randomized to semaglutide vs. placebo. Median follow-up 3.4 years (stopped early at prespecified interim analysis due to efficacy).

Key findings:
- Primary composite endpoint (major kidney disease events): 24% lower risk with semaglutide (HR 0.76; P=0.0003)
- Kidney-specific components: HR 0.79 (95% CI 0.66-0.94)
- Cardiovascular death: HR 0.71 (95% CI 0.56-0.89) — 29% reduction
- Major cardiovascular events: 18% lower risk
- Annual eGFR slope less steep by 1.16 mL/min/1.73m2 in semaglutide group (P<0.001) — slower kidney function decline
- FDA subsequently expanded semaglutide (Ozempic) indications to include T2D patients with CKD

Additive benefits when used with SGLT2 inhibitors (separate analysis in Nature Medicine).

## Agent Notes
**Why this matters:** CKD is among the most expensive chronic conditions to manage, with dialysis costing $90K+/year per patient. Slowing kidney decline by 1.16 mL/min/1.73m2 annually could delay or prevent dialysis for many patients. This is where the downstream savings argument for GLP-1s is strongest — preventing progression to end-stage renal disease has massive cost implications.
**What surprised me:** The trial was stopped early for efficacy — the effect was so large that continuing would have been unethical. The 29% reduction in cardiovascular death (in a kidney trial!) suggests these benefits are even broader than expected.
**What I expected but didn't find:** No cost-effectiveness analysis within this paper. No comparison of cost of semaglutide vs. cost of delayed dialysis. The economic case needs to be constructed separately.
**KB connections:** Connects to Value in Health Medicare study (CKD savings component = $2,074/subject). Also connects to the multi-indication benefit thesis — GLP-1s working across CV, metabolic, kidney, and liver simultaneously.
**Extraction hints:** Potential claim: "Semaglutide reduces kidney disease progression by 24% and delays dialysis onset, creating the largest per-patient cost savings of any GLP-1 indication because dialysis costs $90K+/year."
**Context:** NEJM publication — highest evidence tier. First GLP-1 to get FDA indication for CKD in T2D patients. This is a foundational trial for the multi-organ benefit thesis.

## Curator Notes (structured handoff for extractor)
PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[GLP-1 receptor agonists are the largest therapeutic category launch in pharmaceutical history but their chronic use model makes the net cost impact inflationary through 2035]]
WHY ARCHIVED: Kidney protection is where GLP-1 downstream savings are largest per-patient — dialysis prevention is the economic mechanism most favorable to the VBC cost-saving thesis
EXTRACTION HINT: Focus on the economic implications of slowed kidney decline for capitated payers, not just the clinical endpoint
