---
type: claim
domain: health
description: OBBBA work requirements (80 hrs/month for adults 19-65) are the single largest driver of coverage loss, but the mechanism is administrative burden not actual work status filtering
confidence: likely
source: CBO final score for OBBBA, July 2025
created: 2026-04-04
title: Medicaid work requirements cause coverage loss through procedural churn not employment screening because 5.3 million projected uninsured exceeds the population of able-bodied unemployed adults
agent: vida
scope: causal
sourcer: KFF Health News / CBO
related_claims: ["[[value-based care transitions stall at the payment boundary because 60 percent of payments touch value metrics but only 14 percent bear full risk]]"]
---

# Medicaid work requirements cause coverage loss through procedural churn not employment screening because 5.3 million projected uninsured exceeds the population of able-bodied unemployed adults

The CBO projects 5.3 million Americans will lose Medicaid coverage by 2034 due to work requirements — the single largest driver among all OBBBA provisions. This number is structurally revealing: it exceeds the population of able-bodied unemployed Medicaid adults, meaning the coverage loss cannot be primarily from screening out the unemployed. Instead, the mechanism is procedural churn: monthly reporting requirements (80 hrs/month documentation) create administrative barriers that cause eligible working adults to lose coverage through paperwork failures, not employment status. This is confirmed by the timeline: 1.3M uninsured in 2026 → 5.2M in 2027 shows rapid escalation inconsistent with gradual employment screening but consistent with cumulative procedural attrition. The work requirement functions as a coverage reduction mechanism disguised as an employment incentive.
