---
type: claim
domain: grand-strategy
description: "Game theory's price of anarchy, applied at civilizational scale, measures exactly how much value humanity destroys through inability to coordinate — turning an abstract concept into an investable metric"
confidence: experimental
source: "m3ta, Architectural Investing manuscript; Koutsoupias & Papadimitriou (1999) algorithmic game theory"
created: 2026-04-04
---

# The price of anarchy quantifies the gap between cooperative optimum and competitive equilibrium and this gap is the most important metric for civilizational risk assessment

The price of anarchy, from algorithmic game theory, measures the ratio between the outcome a coordinated group would achieve and the outcome produced by self-interested actors. Applied at civilizational scale, this gap quantifies exactly how much value humanity destroys through inability to coordinate.

The superintelligence thought experiment makes this concrete: if a rational optimizer inherited humanity's full productive capacity, it would immediately prioritize species-level survival goals — existential risk mitigation, resource sustainability, equitable distribution of productive capacity. The difference between what it would do and what we actually do IS the price of anarchy. This framing turns an abstract game-theory concept into an actionable investment metric — the gap represents value waiting to be captured by anyone who can reduce it.

The bridge matters: Moloch names the problem (Scott Alexander), Schmachtenberger diagnoses the mechanism (rivalrous dynamics on exponential tech), but the price of anarchy *quantifies* it. Futarchy and decision markets are the mechanism class that directly attacks this gap — they reduce the price of anarchy by making coordination cheaper than defection.

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Relevant Notes:
- [[attractor-molochian-exhaustion]] — Molochian Exhaustion is the basin where the price of anarchy is highest
- [[multipolar traps are the thermodynamic default]] — the structural reason the price of anarchy is positive
- [[futarchy is manipulation-resistant because attack attempts create profitable opportunities for defenders]] — the mechanism that reduces the gap
- [[optimization for efficiency without regard for resilience creates systemic fragility]] — a specific manifestation of high price of anarchy

Topics:
- grand-strategy
- mechanisms
- internet-finance
