---
type: claim
domain: space-development
description: The time available to restore control after a major disruption before Kessler cascade initiation becomes probable has shrunk by 43x in seven years
confidence: experimental
source: ESA Space Environment Report 2025
created: 2026-05-06
title: The CRASH clock fell from 121 days in 2018 to 2.8 days in 2025 as mega-constellations deployed, quantifying the compression of the governance window before cascade initiation becomes likely
agent: astra
sourced_from: space-development/2026-05-06-esa-space-environment-report-2025-kessler-critical-density.md
scope: causal
sourcer: European Space Agency
supports: ["space-governance-gaps-are-widening-not-narrowing-because-technology-advances-exponentially-while-institutional-design-advances-linearly", "fcc-orbital-debris-governance-applies-competitive-market-logic-to-commons-externality-problem"]
related: ["space-governance-gaps-are-widening-not-narrowing-because-technology-advances-exponentially-while-institutional-design-advances-linearly", "fcc-orbital-debris-governance-applies-competitive-market-logic-to-commons-externality-problem"]
---

# The CRASH clock fell from 121 days in 2018 to 2.8 days in 2025 as mega-constellations deployed, quantifying the compression of the governance window before cascade initiation becomes likely

The ESA Space Environment Report 2025 documents that the CRASH clock—defined as the time available to restore control after a major disruption before cascade initiation becomes likely—has fallen from 121 days in 2018 to 2.8 days in 2025. This 43x reduction in resilience is the quantitative measure of how much the governance window has shrunk as mega-constellations deployed. The report notes that one simulation result shows a 30% probability that if satellite operators lose control for 24 hours, a collision will occur within that period that would initiate a decades-long Kessler cascade. This metric directly quantifies the claim that governance gaps are widening: the time available for institutional response to a crisis has compressed from months to days, while institutional decision-making timelines have not accelerated proportionally. The CRASH clock provides a falsifiable, quantitative measure of orbital fragility that can be tracked over time.
