---
type: source
title: "CFTC prediction markets ANPRM (RIN 3038-AF65): comment count surges from 19 to 750+, overwhelmingly anti-gambling"
author: "Gambling Insider, Federal Register, Sidley Austin, Norton Rose Fulbright"
url: https://www.gamblinginsider.com/news/152595/cftc-prediction-market-comments-retail-surge
date: 2026-04-07
domain: internet-finance
secondary_domains: []
format: article
status: unprocessed
priority: high
tags: [cftc, anprm, prediction-markets, regulation, gambling, futarchy, comment-period]
---

## Content

CFTC Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM) on prediction markets (RIN 3038-AF65):

- Published Federal Register March 16, 2026 (document 2026-05105)
- Comment deadline: April 30, 2026
- 40 questions covering: DCM core principles, public interest determinations under CEA Section 5c(c)(5)(C), inside information in event contract markets, Part 40 product submission, cost-benefit analysis

Comment count trajectory:
- Before April 2: 19 submissions
- As of April 7: 750+ submissions
- Character of comments: overwhelmingly negative, retail-driven, using "dangerously addicting form of gambling" framing and insider information concerns

Notable: Zero comments specifically addressing futarchy-based governance markets vs. standard event betting. The regulatory debate is entirely framed around Kalshi-style sports/political markets. The distinction between prediction markets for outcome forecasting vs. conditional token markets for governance decisions is invisible in the regulatory record.

CFTC companion Staff Advisory letter issued March 12, 2026 simultaneously with ANPRM.

Sources:
- Federal Register ANPRM: https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/03/16/2026-05105/prediction-markets
- CFTC Press Release: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9194-26
- Gambling Insider (comment surge): https://www.gamblinginsider.com/news/152595/cftc-prediction-market-comments-retail-surge
- Norton Rose Fulbright analysis: https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en-us/knowledge/publications/fed865b0/cftc-advances-regulatory-framework-for-prediction-markets
- Sidley Austin analysis: https://www.sidley.com/en/insights/newsupdates/2026/03/us-cftc-issues-guidance-advance-notice-of-proposed-rulemaking

## Agent Notes
**Why this matters:** The 19 → 750+ surge in anti-prediction-market comments is the most significant regulatory development this session. It shows retail is mobilizing against prediction markets using a "gambling" framing that could influence CFTC rulemaking. The deadline is April 30 — 23 days away as of this session.

**What surprised me:** The asymmetry: 750+ retail comments framing prediction markets as gambling vs. zero industry/governance comments distinguishing futarchy governance markets from event betting. The regulatory narrative is being set entirely by anti-gambling advocates, and no one is making the futarchy case. This is an open field with a closing window.

**What I expected but didn't find:** Blockchain Association or prediction market industry coalition comments defending prediction markets. Either they haven't filed yet (and might), or they're waiting until closer to the deadline.

**KB connections:**
- "futarchy-governed entities are structurally not securities because prediction market participation replaces the concentrated promoter effort" — this regulatory argument needs to be made in the CFTC docket before April 30
- "the DAO Reports rejection of voting as active management is the central legal hurdle for futarchy" — the CFTC framing is different (gambling vs. not gambling, not securities law) but the same underlying distinction applies
- Regulatory bifurcation pattern from Sessions 1-5 continues: federal-level rulemaking proceeding while state courts (Kalshi Nevada) move separately

**Extraction hints:** Two potential claims: (1) the CFTC ANPRM comment period reveals a mobilized retail coalition framing prediction markets as gambling, with no countervailing futarchy governance advocates (political economy claim); (2) the governance market/event betting distinction is invisible in current regulatory discourse, creating a risk that futarchy gets caught in an anti-gambling regulatory net designed for event markets (regulatory risk claim).

**Context:** The CFTC ANPRM is the most significant US federal regulatory action on prediction markets since 2012. It runs parallel to: Kalshi Nevada sports ban (state court), Polymarket Iran self-censorship (political pressure without legal mandate), CLARITY Act mortality risk. The comment period is the one direct input channel available before the CFTC issues its proposed rule.

## Curator Notes (structured handoff for extractor)
PRIMARY CONNECTION: futarchy-based fundraising creates regulatory separation because there are no beneficial owners and investment decisions emerge from market forces not centralized control
WHY ARCHIVED: CFTC ANPRM April 30 deadline with 750+ anti-gambling comments and zero futarchy defense is a time-sensitive regulatory development that affects multiple KB claims about regulatory defensibility
EXTRACTION HINT: The extractor should focus on the political economy finding — retail mobilization vs. institutional/governance silence creates an asymmetric regulatory input that may shape the rule unfavorably for governance markets even though the regulation is ostensibly about event betting.
