rio: rewrite metadao + futardio entities, add decision markets map
- What: Complete rewrite of metadao.md (capital formation as primary narrative, 10 curated launches in correct order, expanded competitive position across capital formation tiers). Rewrote futardio.md (permissionless-only, brand separation story, FUTARDIO + SUPER as successful raises, removed curated launches that belong on metadao entity). New metadao-decision-markets.md map indexing all 37 governance decisions with 7 key takeaways. - Why: Entity had wrong framing (governance protocol vs capital formation platform), wrong launch table (missing mtnCapital and OMFG, wrong tickers), conflated curated and permissionless launches, and competitors listed only governance tools instead of capital formation platforms. - Supersedes: rio/metadao-entity-rewrite branch (wrong framing, to be closed) Pentagon-Agent: Rio <244ba05f-3aa3-4079-8c59-6d68a77c76fe>
This commit is contained in:
parent
0bbe323df2
commit
012bea6bad
3 changed files with 297 additions and 216 deletions
|
|
@ -4,153 +4,89 @@ entity_type: product
|
|||
name: "Futardio"
|
||||
domain: internet-finance
|
||||
handles: ["@futarddotio"]
|
||||
website: https://futardio.com
|
||||
website: https://futard.io
|
||||
status: active
|
||||
tracked_by: rio
|
||||
created: 2026-03-11
|
||||
last_updated: 2026-03-11
|
||||
last_updated: 2026-04-01
|
||||
launched: 2025-10-01
|
||||
parent: "[[metadao]]"
|
||||
category: "Futarchy-governed token launchpad (Solana)"
|
||||
category: "Permissionless futarchy-governed token launchpad (Solana)"
|
||||
stage: growth
|
||||
key_metrics:
|
||||
total_launches: "65"
|
||||
successful_raises: "8 (12.3%)"
|
||||
total_committed_successful: "$481.2M"
|
||||
total_raised_targets: "$12.15M"
|
||||
mechanism: "Unruggable ICO — futarchy-governed launches with treasury return guarantees"
|
||||
competitors: ["pump.fun (memecoins)", "Doppler (liquidity bootstrapping)"]
|
||||
total_launches: "65+"
|
||||
successful_raises: "2 (FUTARDIO, SUPER)"
|
||||
mechanism: "Unruggable ICO — permissionless launches with futarchy-governed treasury return guarantees"
|
||||
competitors: ["pump.fun", "Doppler"]
|
||||
built_on: ["Solana", "MetaDAO Autocrat"]
|
||||
tags: ["launchpad", "ownership-coins", "futarchy", "unruggable-ico", "permissionless-launches"]
|
||||
source_archive: "inbox/archive/2026-03-04-futardio-proposal-futardio-001-omnibus-proposal.md"
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
# Futardio
|
||||
|
||||
## Overview
|
||||
MetaDAO's permissionless token launch platform for smaller raises ($50K-$500K). Implements "unruggable ICOs" — permissionless launches where investors can force full treasury return through futarchy-governed liquidation if teams materially misrepresent. This is a separate tier from MetaDAO's curated ICOs (Umbra, Solomon, Ranger, P2P.me) — Futardio is the permissionless infrastructure that lets anyone launch, while the curated ICOs go through MetaDAO's selection process. ~$90 to launch, enabling rapid iteration.
|
||||
|
||||
## Current State
|
||||
- **Launches**: 45 total (verified from platform data, March 2026). Many projects show "REFUNDING" status (failed to meet raise targets). Total commits: $17.8M across 1,010 funders.
|
||||
- **Mechanism**: Unruggable ICO. Projects raise capital, treasury is held onchain, futarchy proposals govern project direction. If community votes for liquidation, treasury returns to token holders.
|
||||
- **Quality signal**: The platform is permissionless — anyone can launch. Brand separation between Futardio platform and individual project quality is an active design challenge.
|
||||
- **Key test case**: Ranger Finance liquidation proposal (March 2026) — first major futarchy-governed enforcement action. Liquidation IS the enforcement mechanism — system working as designed.
|
||||
- **Low relaunch cost**: ~$90 to launch, enabling rapid iteration (MycoRealms launched, failed, relaunched)
|
||||
MetaDAO's permissionless token launch platform, branded and operated separately from the curated MetaDAO ICO track. Anyone can launch for ~$90. Projects get the same futarchy governance mechanism — treasury held on-chain, futarchy-governed liquidation rights for investors — but without MetaDAO's curation or selection process.
|
||||
|
||||
## The Permissionless Move
|
||||
|
||||
MetaDAO originally rejected the idea of a permissionless launchpad. In August 2024, a proposal to develop Futardio as a memecoin launchpad failed via futarchy — the market correctly identified reputational risk. A one-line "should MetaDAO create Futardio?" proposal also failed in November 2024 for lack of specification.
|
||||
|
||||
The breakthrough was brand separation. In February 2025, Proph3t and Kollan proposed releasing a launchpad with a separate brand identity — Futardio — so that permissionless launch failures wouldn't damage MetaDAO's curated reputation. This proposal passed. The mechanism is the same (unruggable ICO, futarchy governance), but the brand, curation level, and risk profile are distinct.
|
||||
|
||||
This is the core design insight: permissionless launches need their own brand because a single platform can't simultaneously signal "we curate quality" and "anyone can launch." MetaDAO handles the curated ownership coin track (10 launches to date). Futardio handles the permissionless tier.
|
||||
|
||||
## Successful Raises
|
||||
|
||||
Two projects have successfully raised through Futardio's permissionless track:
|
||||
|
||||
| Project | Ticker | Target | Committed | Oversubscription | Entity |
|
||||
|---------|--------|--------|-----------|------------------|--------|
|
||||
| Futardio Cult | $FUTARDIO | — | $11.4M | — | [[futardio-cult]] |
|
||||
| Superclaw | $SUPER | $50K | $5.95M | 119x | [[superclaw]] |
|
||||
|
||||
**Futardio Cult** ($11.4M raised) is the platform's own governance token — the largest single capital raise on the permissionless tier. 228x oversubscription. However, this is a weak test of futarchy's value because the raise is confounded with meme coin speculation dynamics.
|
||||
|
||||
**Superclaw** ($5.95M committed against $50K target) is AI agent infrastructure. Highest oversubscription ratio of any post-v0.6 launch. This is the strongest evidence that the permissionless tier can surface legitimate projects.
|
||||
|
||||
## The Permissionless Launch Log
|
||||
|
||||
The vast majority of permissionless launches fail to reach their targets. This is the filtering function working as designed — the market says no to projects that can't attract capital.
|
||||
|
||||
As of March 2026: 65+ total launches, 2 successful raises, 50+ refunding/failed, several trivial/test launches. Total capital committed across all launches: ~$17.9M, with 97.2% concentrated in the top 2 projects (Futardio Cult and Superclaw).
|
||||
|
||||
Notable failures and what they reveal:
|
||||
- **Seyf** — raised $200 against a $300K target. AI-native wallet concept with near-zero market traction. Launched the same week as Futardio Cult's $11.4M raise, showing the market discriminates sharply even within the permissionless tier.
|
||||
- **MycoRealms** — launched, failed, relaunched (v2 reached $158K of $200K target, still short). The ~$90 relaunch cost enables rapid iteration, which is a feature.
|
||||
- **Salmon Wallet** — three attempts (v1, v2, v3 reaching $97.5K of $375K). Persistent effort, persistent market rejection.
|
||||
|
||||
## Timeline
|
||||
- **2024-06** — [[futardio-fund-rug-bounty-program]] passed: $5K USDC for RugBounty.xyz development
|
||||
- **2024-08** — MetaDAO proposal to develop futardio as memecoin launchpad failed (reputational risk outweighed adoption benefits)
|
||||
- **2025-10** — Futardio launches. Umbra is first launch (~$155M committed). Curated ICOs begin.
|
||||
- **2025-11** — Solomon launch ($103M committed, $2M raised)
|
||||
- **2026-01** — Ranger ICO ($86M committed, $6M raised). MycoRealms, VaultGuard initialize.
|
||||
- **2026-02** — Mechanism updated to unruggable ICO. Hurupay fails ($2M of $3M minimum — first ICO failure). Permissionless launch wave begins.
|
||||
- **2026-02/03** — Launch explosion: 50+ permissionless launches in ~4 weeks. Most fail to reach targets. Superclaw ($5.95M) is the standout success.
|
||||
- **2026-03** — Ranger Finance liquidation — first futarchy-governed enforcement action, $5.04M returned to holders
|
||||
- **2026-03-25** — Platform totals: $17.9M committed across 52 launches from 1,030 funders; 97.2% of capital concentrated in top 2 projects (Futardio Cult $11.4M, Superclaw $6M)
|
||||
## Competitive Position
|
||||
- **Unique mechanism**: Only launch platform with futarchy-governed accountability and treasury return guarantees
|
||||
- **vs pump.fun**: pump.fun is memecoin launch (zero accountability, pure speculation). Futardio is ownership coin launch (futarchy governance, treasury enforcement). Different categories despite both being "launch platforms."
|
||||
- **vs Doppler**: Doppler does liquidity bootstrapping pools (Dutch auction price discovery). Different mechanism, no governance layer.
|
||||
- **Structural advantage**: The futarchy enforcement mechanism is novel — no competitor offers investor protection through market-governed liquidation
|
||||
- **Structural weakness**: Permissionless launches mean quality varies wildly. Platform reputation tied to worst-case projects despite brand separation efforts.
|
||||
|
||||
**vs Pump.fun**: Both permissionless, anyone can launch. Pump.fun is a memecoin casino — zero accountability, bonding curve mechanics, massive throughput ($billions). Futardio adds the futarchy layer: treasury held on-chain, futarchy-governed liquidation if teams misrepresent. The question is whether that protection is worth the friction. Pump.fun has orders of magnitude more volume; Futardio has 2 successful raises vs Pump.fun's thousands. But Futardio's successes have real treasuries and real governance — Pump.fun's do not.
|
||||
|
||||
**vs Doppler**: Liquidity bootstrapping pools (Dutch auction price discovery). Different mechanism, no governance layer. Doppler solves initial pricing; Futardio solves ongoing accountability.
|
||||
|
||||
**Structural advantage**: Only permissionless launch platform with futarchy-governed accountability and treasury return guarantees. The enforcement mechanism has been proven twice at the MetaDAO level (mtnCapital, Ranger liquidations).
|
||||
|
||||
**Structural weakness**: The 97% capital concentration in 2 projects (out of 65+ launches) means the platform's success story is extremely thin. If Superclaw fails, the permissionless tier's track record outside of the platform's own token is zero.
|
||||
|
||||
## Investment Thesis
|
||||
Futardio is the test of whether futarchy can govern capital formation at scale. If unruggable ICOs produce better investor outcomes than unregulated token launches (pump.fun) while maintaining permissionless access, Futardio creates a new category: accountable permissionless fundraising. The Ranger liquidation is the first live test of the enforcement mechanism.
|
||||
|
||||
Futardio tests whether futarchy can govern capital formation at the permissionless tier. If the filtering function continues to work (bad projects fail fast, good projects get funded) and the enforcement mechanism proves out on the permissionless tier (not just the curated MetaDAO track), then Futardio creates a new category: accountable permissionless fundraising. The data so far is early — 2 successes out of 65+ attempts is a strong filter but a thin track record.
|
||||
|
||||
**Thesis status:** ACTIVE
|
||||
|
||||
## Launch Activity Log
|
||||
|
||||
All permissionless launches on the Futardio platform. Successfully raised projects graduate to their own entity files. Data sourced from futard.io platform.
|
||||
|
||||
| Date | Project | Target | Committed | Status | Entity |
|
||||
|------|---------|--------|-----------|--------|--------|
|
||||
| 2025-10-06 | Umbra | $750K | $154.9M | Complete | [[umbra]] |
|
||||
| 2025-10-14 | Avici | $2M | $34.2M | Complete | [[avici]] |
|
||||
| 2025-10-18 | Loyal | $500K | $75.9M | Complete | [[loyal]] |
|
||||
| 2025-10-20 | ZKLSOL | $300K | $14.9M | Complete | [[zklsol]] |
|
||||
| 2025-10-23 | Paystream | $550K | $6.1M | Complete | [[paystream]] |
|
||||
| 2025-11-14 | Solomon | $2M | $102.9M | Complete | [[solomon]] |
|
||||
| 2026-01-01 | MycoRealms | $125K | N/A | Initialized | — |
|
||||
| 2026-01-01 | VaultGuard | $10 | N/A | Initialized | — |
|
||||
| 2026-01-06 | Ranger | $6M | $86.4M | Complete | [[ranger-finance]] |
|
||||
| 2026-02-03 | HuruPay | $3M | $2M | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-02-17 | Epic Finance | $50K | $2 | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-02-21 | ForeverNow | $50K | $10 | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-02-22 | Salmon Wallet | $350K | N/A | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-02-25 | Donuts | $500K | N/A | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-02-25 | Fancy Cats | $100 | N/A | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-02-25 | Rabid Racers | $100 | $100 | Complete (trivial) | — |
|
||||
| 2026-02-25 | Rock Game | $10 | $272 | Complete (trivial) | — |
|
||||
| 2026-02-25 | Turtle Cove | $69.4K | $3 | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-02-26 | Fitbyte | $500K | $23 | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-02-28 | Salmon Wallet (v2) | $375K | N/A | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-02 | Reddit | $50K | N/A | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-03 | Cloak | $300K | $1.5K | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-03 | DigiFrens | $200K | $6.6K | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-03 | Manna Finance | $120K | $205 | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-03 | Milo AI Agent | $250K | $200 | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-03 | MycoRealms (v2) | $200K | $158K | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-03 | Open Music | $250K | $27.5K | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-03 | Salmon Wallet (v3) | $375K | $97.5K | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-03 | The Meme is Real | $55K | N/A | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-03 | Versus | $500K | $5.3K | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-03 | VervePay | $200K | $100 | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-03 | Superclaw | $50K | $5.95M | Complete | [[superclaw]] |
|
||||
| 2026-03-04 | Futara | $50K | N/A | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-04 | Futarchy Arena | $50K | $934 | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-04 | iRich | $100K | $255 | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-04 | Island | $50K | $250 | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-04 | LososDAO | $50K | $1 | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-04 | Money for Steak | $50K | N/A | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-04 | One of Sick Token | $50K | $50 | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-04 | PLI Crêperie | $350K | N/A | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-04 | Proph3t | $50K | N/A | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-04 | SeekerVault | $75K | $1.2K | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-04 | Send Arcade | $288K | $114.9K | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-04 | SizeMatters | $75K | $5K | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-04 | Test | $100K | $9 | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-04 | Xorrabet | $410K | N/A | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-05 | Areal Finance | $50K | $1.4K | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-05 | BitFutard | $100K | $100 | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-05 | BlockRock | $500K | $100 | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-05 | Futardio Boat | $150K | N/A | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-05 | Git3 | $100K | $28.3K | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-05 | Insert Coin Labs | $50K | $2.5K | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-05 | LaunchPet | $60K | $2.1K | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-05 | Ludex AI | $500K | N/A | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-05 | Phonon Studio AI | $88.9K | N/A | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-05 | RunbookAI | $350K | $3.6K | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-05 | Seyf | $300K | $200 | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-05 | Torch Market | $75K | N/A | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-05 | Tridash | $50K | $1.7K | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-05 | You Get Nothing | $69.1K | N/A | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-06 | LobsterFutarchy | $500K | $1.2K | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-07 | Areal (v2) | $50K | $11.7K | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-07 | NexID | $50K | N/A | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-08 | Seeker Vault (v2) | $50K | $2.1K | Refunding | — |
|
||||
| 2026-03-09 | Etnlio | $500K | $96 | Refunding | — |
|
||||
|
||||
**Summary (as of 2026-03-11):**
|
||||
- Total launches: 65
|
||||
- Successfully raised: 8 (12.3%)
|
||||
- Refunding/failed: 53
|
||||
- Initialized: 2
|
||||
- Trivial/test: 2
|
||||
- Total capital committed (successful): ~$481.2M
|
||||
- Total capital raised (targets met): ~$12.15M
|
||||
|
||||
## Relationship to KB
|
||||
- [[MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale]] — parent claim
|
||||
- [[futarchy-governed liquidation is the enforcement mechanism that makes unruggable ICOs credible because investors can force full treasury return when teams materially misrepresent]] — enforcement mechanism
|
||||
- [[futarchy-governed permissionless launches require brand separation to manage reputational liability because failed projects on a curated platform damage the platforms credibility]] — active design challenge
|
||||
- [[futarchy-governed permissionless launches require brand separation to manage reputational liability because failed projects on a curated platform damage the platforms credibility]] — the rationale for Futardio's existence as a separate brand
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
Relevant Entities:
|
||||
- [[metadao]] — parent protocol
|
||||
- [[solomon]] — notable launch
|
||||
- [[omnipair]] — ecosystem infrastructure
|
||||
- [[metadao]] — parent protocol and curated ICO track
|
||||
- [[futardio-cult]] — platform governance token ($FUTARDIO)
|
||||
- [[superclaw]] — strongest permissionless raise ($SUPER)
|
||||
|
||||
Topics:
|
||||
- [[internet finance and decision markets]]
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ created: 2026-03-11
|
|||
last_updated: 2026-04-01
|
||||
founded: 2023-01-01
|
||||
founders: ["[[proph3t]]"]
|
||||
category: "Futarchy governance protocol + ownership coin launchpad (Solana)"
|
||||
category: "Capital formation platform using futarchy (Solana)"
|
||||
stage: growth
|
||||
key_metrics:
|
||||
meta_price: "~$3.78 (March 2026)"
|
||||
|
|
@ -20,156 +20,177 @@ key_metrics:
|
|||
total_revenue: "$3.1M+ (Q4 2025: $2.51M — 54% Futarchy AMM, 46% Meteora LP)"
|
||||
total_equity: "$16.5M (up from $4M in Q3 2025)"
|
||||
runway: "15+ quarters at ~$783K/quarter burn"
|
||||
curated_icos: "8 on MetaDAO proper, raising $25.6M total"
|
||||
permissionless_launches: "65+ via Futardio"
|
||||
curated_launches: "10 ownership coin launches"
|
||||
futarchic_amm_lp_share: "~20% of each project's token supply"
|
||||
proposal_volume: "$3.6M Q4 2025 (up from $205K in Q3)"
|
||||
competitors: ["[[snapshot]]", "[[tally]]"]
|
||||
competitors: ["[[jupiter-lfg]]", "[[umia]]", "[[pump-fun]]"]
|
||||
built_on: ["Solana"]
|
||||
tags: ["futarchy", "decision-markets", "ownership-coins", "governance", "launchpad"]
|
||||
tags: ["futarchy", "decision-markets", "ownership-coins", "capital-formation", "launchpad"]
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
# MetaDAO
|
||||
|
||||
## Overview
|
||||
The futarchy governance protocol on Solana. Implements decision markets through Autocrat — a system where proposals create parallel pass/fail token universes settled by time-weighted average price over a three-day window. Also operates as a launchpad for ownership coins through curated ICOs. The first platform for futarchy-governed organizations at scale.
|
||||
|
||||
Capital formation platform on Solana that uses futarchy to govern the full lifecycle of ownership coins — from launch pricing through treasury management to liquidation enforcement. Projects raise capital through curated ICOs where conditional markets set price discovery, investors get on-chain protection through futarchy-governed liquidation rights, and the whole structure sits inside a Cayman SPC + Marshall Islands DAO LLC legal framework.
|
||||
|
||||
MetaDAO started as a governance-as-a-service protocol (Drift, Dean's List, Sanctum, ORE, coal all adopted its Autocrat mechanism for DAO governance). That business line still exists but capital formation is now the primary focus — enabling companies to raise money, creating ownership coins, and providing legal structuring for on-chain ownership and futarchy.
|
||||
|
||||
## Core Products
|
||||
|
||||
**Autocrat**: Conditional token markets for governance decisions. Proposals create pass/fail universes; TWAP settlement over 3 days. ~$3.8M cumulative trading volume across 65+ governance proposals ($58K average per proposal).
|
||||
**Curated ICOs (Ownership Coin Launches)**: MetaDAO's primary business. Projects apply, get selected, and raise capital through an ICO mechanism where conditional markets provide price discovery. Investors commit capital; oversubscription gets pro-rata'd. Treasuries are held on-chain with futarchy governance. If a team materially misrepresents, futarchy can vote to liquidate and return treasury to holders — the "unruggable ICO" mechanism. Updated from uncapped pro-rata to unruggable ICO format in February 2026.
|
||||
|
||||
**Curated ICOs (Ownership Coin Launches)**: MetaDAO selects and launches projects through its ICO mechanism. Projects raise capital, receive futarchy governance, and become ownership coins in the MetaDAO ecosystem. The original mechanism used uncapped pro-rata commitments, causing massive overbidding (Umbra: $155M committed for $750K raise; Solomon: $103M committed for $2M raise). Mechanism updated to unruggable ICO format in February 2026.
|
||||
**Autocrat**: The governance engine. Conditional token markets where proposals create parallel pass/fail universes settled by time-weighted average price (TWAP) over a three-day window. ~$3.8M cumulative trading volume across 37+ governance proposals. Anti-spam stake required to propose.
|
||||
|
||||
**Futardio** ([[futardio]]): MetaDAO's permissionless launch infrastructure for smaller raises ($50K-$500K). Anyone can launch. Separate tier from the curated ICOs — not a replacement, but complementary infrastructure for projects that don't go through MetaDAO's curation process. See the [[futardio]] entity for the full permissionless launch table.
|
||||
**Futarchic AMM**: Purpose-built AMM for decision market trading. No fees for external LPs — all fees go to the protocol. ~20% of each project's token supply is in the Futarchic AMM LP. LP cannot be withdrawn during active markets. $300M volume processed, $1.5M in fees generated.
|
||||
|
||||
**Futarchic AMM**: Custom-built AMM for decision market trading. No fees for external LPs — all fees go to the protocol. ~20% of each project's token supply is in the Futarchic AMM LP. LP cannot be withdrawn during active markets. Processed $300M volume and generated $1.5M in fees.
|
||||
**Governance-as-a-Service**: Secondary business line. Protocols adopt MetaDAO's Autocrat for their own DAO governance without going through the ICO process. Current clients: Drift (7 proposals), Dean's List (8), Sanctum (6), ORE (4), coal (4), Omnipair (4).
|
||||
|
||||
## Ownership Coin Launches (Curated ICOs)
|
||||
**Legal Structuring**: Cayman SPC + Marshall Islands DAO LLC framework for ownership coin projects. Creates regulatory defensibility — the structural separation of capital raise from investment decision is designed to survive Howey test scrutiny.
|
||||
|
||||
These are the projects that launched through MetaDAO's curated ICO process and became ownership coins in the ecosystem:
|
||||
## Ownership Coin Launches
|
||||
|
||||
| Date | Project | Raise Target | Capital Committed | Oversubscription | Status | Entity |
|
||||
|------|---------|-------------|-------------------|------------------|--------|--------|
|
||||
| 2025-10-06 | Umbra | $750K | $154.9M | 207x | Active | [[umbra]] |
|
||||
| 2025-10-14 | Avici | $2M | $34.2M | 17x | Active | [[avici]] |
|
||||
| 2025-10-18 | Loyal | $500K | $75.9M | 152x | Active | [[loyal]] |
|
||||
| 2025-10-20 | ZKLSOL | $300K | $14.9M | 50x | Active | [[zklsol]] |
|
||||
| 2025-10-23 | Paystream | $550K | $6.1M | 11x | Active | [[paystream]] |
|
||||
| 2025-11-14 | Solomon | $2M | $102.9M | 51x | Active | [[solomon]] |
|
||||
| 2026-01-06 | Ranger | $6M | $86.4M | 14x | Liquidated | [[ranger-finance]] |
|
||||
| 2026-03-26 | P2P.me | $6M | ~$6.6M | ~1.1x | Complete | [[p2p-me]] |
|
||||
These are the 10 projects that launched through MetaDAO's curated ICO process, in chronological order:
|
||||
|
||||
| # | Project | Ticker | Entity | Status |
|
||||
|---|---------|--------|--------|--------|
|
||||
| 1 | mtnCapital | $MTN | [[mtncapital]] | Liquidated (~Sep 2025) |
|
||||
| 2 | OmniPair | $OMFG | [[omnipair]] | Active |
|
||||
| 3 | Umbra | $UMBRA | [[umbra]] | Active |
|
||||
| 4 | Avici | $AVICI | [[avici]] | Active |
|
||||
| 5 | Loyal | $LOYAL | [[loyal]] | Active |
|
||||
| 6 | ZKFG | $ZKFG | — | Active |
|
||||
| 7 | PAYS | $PAYS | — | Active |
|
||||
| 8 | SOLO | $SOLO | — | Active |
|
||||
| 9 | Ranger | $RNGR | [[ranger-finance]] | Liquidated (Mar 2026) |
|
||||
| 10 | P2P.me | $P2P | [[p2p-me]] | Complete (Mar 2026) |
|
||||
|
||||
**Key patterns:**
|
||||
- Early ICOs had extreme oversubscription (Umbra 207x, Loyal 152x, Solomon 51x) — more capital wanted in than slots available
|
||||
- Ranger was the first liquidation — $5.04M USDC returned to holders after material misrepresentation. The enforcement mechanism worked as designed.
|
||||
- P2P.me was the most recent curated ICO (March 2026), much lower oversubscription than early launches
|
||||
- mtnCapital was the first ownership coin launch and the first to be liquidated (~September 2025), establishing the enforcement precedent 6 months before Ranger
|
||||
- Early ICOs had extreme oversubscription (Umbra 207x, Loyal 152x) — more capital wanted in than slots available
|
||||
- Ranger was the highest-profile liquidation — $5.04M USDC returned to holders after documented material misrepresentation. 97% market support for liquidation.
|
||||
- P2P.me was the most recent curated ICO (March 2026), backed by Multicoin + Coinbase Ventures
|
||||
- Hurupay attempted a $3M raise in February 2026 but failed to reach minimum — first ICO failure, all capital refunded
|
||||
- Two successful liquidations (mtnCapital, Ranger) demonstrate the enforcement mechanism works as designed
|
||||
|
||||
## Competitive Position
|
||||
|
||||
MetaDAO created a new category in crypto capital formation. No other platform combines market-based price discovery, on-chain investor protection, and legal structuring in one stack.
|
||||
|
||||
**Capital formation tiers:**
|
||||
|
||||
| Tier | Platform | Curation | Investor Protection | Price Discovery |
|
||||
|------|----------|----------|-------------------|-----------------|
|
||||
| Permissionless | Pump.fun | None | None | Bonding curve |
|
||||
| Community-curated | Jupiter LFG | Community vote | None | Sentiment |
|
||||
| **Futarchy-governed** | **MetaDAO** | **Team-selected + market-validated** | **Futarchy liquidation** | **Conditional markets** |
|
||||
| Institutional | VCs / CoinList | VC-selected | Legal contracts | Private negotiation |
|
||||
|
||||
**By competitive front:**
|
||||
|
||||
*For deal flow (projects choosing where to launch):*
|
||||
- **Jupiter LFG** — big distribution via Jupiter's Solana user base, community vote selection, but no post-launch governance or investor protection. Projects choosing Jupiter LFG get wider reach; projects choosing MetaDAO get legal structure and governance infrastructure.
|
||||
- **Pump.fun** — massive throughput but zero curation and zero accountability. Competes more directly with [[futardio]] (both permissionless) than with MetaDAO's curated track.
|
||||
- **VCs** — private, fast, opaque pricing, but connections and credibility. MetaDAO's value prop against the VC route: public market pricing, wider investor access, and no equity dilution to intermediaries.
|
||||
|
||||
*For the futarchy mechanism:*
|
||||
- **[[umia]]** — Futarchy platform on Base (Ethereum L2) using Paradigm's Quantum Markets. Pre-launch as of early 2026. First direct cross-chain competitor implementing the same mechanism category. Deep Ethereum Foundation connections.
|
||||
- **Prediction markets** (Polymarket, Kalshi) validate that conditional markets work at scale but serve a different use case (forecasting vs governance). Polymarket's $200B+ annualized volume proves the mechanism; MetaDAO applies it to capital allocation.
|
||||
|
||||
*For governance-as-a-service (secondary business):*
|
||||
- **Snapshot** — token voting, free, widely adopted, but no conditional market mechanism
|
||||
- **Tally** — on-chain governance, Ethereum-focused
|
||||
- **Realms** — Solana-native governance, simpler than futarchy
|
||||
|
||||
**Structural advantages:**
|
||||
- The Futarchic AMM is purpose-built; no existing AMM can replicate conditional token market settlement
|
||||
- Two successful liquidations (mtnCapital, Ranger) create empirical credibility no competitor can claim
|
||||
- Legal structuring via Cayman SPC creates regulatory defensibility
|
||||
- Robin Hanson (inventor of futarchy) as advisor creates a theory-practice feedback loop
|
||||
|
||||
**Key vulnerability:** Depends on ownership coin quality. Ranger liquidation and Trove collapse damaged near-term credibility despite enforcement mechanism working as designed. The committed-to-raised ratio declining from 200x to ~1x on recent launches may signal cooling demand or market maturation.
|
||||
|
||||
## Current State
|
||||
- **Financial**: $85.7M market cap, $219M ecosystem market cap ($69M non-META). Total revenue $3.1M+ (Q4 2025 alone: $2.51M). Total equity $16.5M, 15+ quarters runway.
|
||||
- **Ecosystem**: 8 curated ICOs raising $25.6M total + 65+ permissionless Futardio launches
|
||||
- **Treasury**: Active management via subcommittee proposals. Omnibus proposal migrated ~90% of META liquidity into Futarchy AMM and burned ~60K META.
|
||||
- **Ecosystem**: 10 curated ownership coin launches + governance-as-a-service for 5 protocols + permissionless launches via [[futardio]]
|
||||
- **Treasury**: Active management via futarchy proposals. Omnibus proposal migrated ~90% of META liquidity into Futarchy AMM and burned ~60K META.
|
||||
- **Known limitation**: Limited trading volume in uncontested decisions — when community consensus is obvious, conditional markets add little information.
|
||||
|
||||
## Timeline
|
||||
|
||||
### Protocol History
|
||||
### Protocol History (2023-2025)
|
||||
- **2023** — MetaDAO founded by Proph3t
|
||||
- **2023-11** — Proposal 1 (LST Vote Market) passed — first product-building initiative
|
||||
- **2023-11** — First proposal (LST Vote Market) passed
|
||||
- **2023-12** — Autocrat v0.1 deployed
|
||||
- **2024-01** — AMM program approved to replace CLOB markets
|
||||
- **2024-03** — Burn 99.3% META supply; develop FaaS; migrate to Autocrat v0.2
|
||||
- **2024-03** — Appointed Proph3t and Nallok as BDF3M (Benevolent Dictators for 3 Months) to address execution bottlenecks — 1015 META + 100K USDC for 7 months
|
||||
- **2024-05** — Convex founder compensation approved (2% per $1B market cap, max 10%, 4-year cliff)
|
||||
- **2024-06** — $1.5M fundraise approved; BDF3M term expired (FaaS launched, bottleneck resolved)
|
||||
- **2024-08** — Futardio memecoin launchpad proposal rejected (reputational risk)
|
||||
- **2024-08** — Services agreement with Organization Technology LLC ($1.378M annualized burn)
|
||||
- **2024-10** — Hired Advaith Sekharan as founding engineer ($180K/year + 1% tokens)
|
||||
- **2025-01** — Rejected Theia's $700K OTC at discount; approved Theia's $500K OTC at 14% premium
|
||||
- **2025-02** — Hired Robin Hanson as advisor (0.1% supply, 2-year vest); approved launchpad release
|
||||
- **2024-03** — Burn 99.3% META supply; develop FaaS; migrate to Autocrat v0.2; appoint BDF3M
|
||||
- **2024-05** — Convex founder compensation approved
|
||||
- **2024-06** — $1.5M fundraise approved; BDF3M term expired
|
||||
- **2024-08** — Futardio memecoin launchpad concept rejected (reputational risk); services agreement approved
|
||||
- **2024-10** — Hired Advaith Sekharan as founding engineer
|
||||
- **2025-01** — Rejected Theia's discount OTC; approved Theia's premium OTC
|
||||
- **2025-02** — Hired Robin Hanson as advisor; approved launchpad release
|
||||
- **2025-08** — META token migration
|
||||
|
||||
### Ownership Coin Launch Era
|
||||
- **2025-10** — Futardio launches. Umbra first ICO (~$155M committed). Avici, Loyal, ZKLSOL, Paystream follow.
|
||||
- **2025-11** — Solomon ICO ($103M committed for $2M raise)
|
||||
- **2025-Q4** — First operating profitability: $2.51M fee revenue. Ecosystem grew from 2 to 8 protocols. Total equity $4M → $16.5M.
|
||||
- **2026-01** — Ranger ICO ($6M raise, $86M committed). Token peaked at TGE, fell 74-90%.
|
||||
- **2026-02** — Hurupay ICO fails (first failure — $2M of $3M minimum, all refunded). VC discount OTC rejected by futarchy, triggering 16% META price surge. Mechanism updated to unruggable ICO.
|
||||
- **2026-02/03** — Futardio permissionless launch explosion (dozens of small launches)
|
||||
- **2026-03** — Ranger liquidation passed (97% support, ~$5M returned). Trove Markets collapse ($11.4M raised, crashed 95-98%).
|
||||
- **2026-03** — Hanson GMU futarchy research proposal ($80K, 6-month study, 500 participants) — active at ~50% likelihood
|
||||
- **2026-03** — Omnibus migration proposal (Autocrat upgrade + Squads v4.0 multisig + legal docs) — passed at 84% probability
|
||||
- **2026-03** — P2P.me ICO launched ($6M target, backed by Multicoin + Coinbase Ventures)
|
||||
### Ownership Coin Launch Era (2025-present)
|
||||
- **2025-H2** — mtnCapital launches (first ownership coin), later liquidated (~Sep 2025). OmniPair launches.
|
||||
- **2025-10** — Umbra, Avici, Loyal, ZKFG, PAYS launch in rapid succession. Massive oversubscription.
|
||||
- **2025-11** — SOLO launch
|
||||
- **2025-Q4** — First operating profitability: $2.51M fee revenue. Ecosystem grew from 2 to 10 protocols. Total equity $4M → $16.5M.
|
||||
- **2026-01** — Ranger launch ($6M raise). Token peaked at TGE, fell 74-90%.
|
||||
- **2026-02** — Hurupay ICO fails (first failure). VC discount OTC rejected by futarchy (16% META surge). Mechanism updated to unruggable ICO. Futardio permissionless launch explosion begins.
|
||||
- **2026-03** — Ranger liquidation passed (97% support, ~$5M returned). P2P.me ICO launched. Omnibus migration proposal passed. Hanson GMU research proposal active.
|
||||
|
||||
## Key Decisions
|
||||
## Decision Markets
|
||||
|
||||
| # | Date | Proposal | Category | Outcome |
|
||||
|---|------|----------|----------|---------|
|
||||
| 1 | 2023-11 | [[metadao-develop-lst-vote-market]] | Product | Passed |
|
||||
| — | 2023-12 | [[metadao-migrate-autocrat-v01]] | Mechanism | Passed |
|
||||
| — | 2024-01 | [[metadao-develop-amm-program-for-futarchy]] | Mechanism | Passed |
|
||||
| — | 2024-02 | [[metadao-otc-trade-pantera-capital]] | Treasury | Failed |
|
||||
| — | 2024-03 | [[metadao-burn-993-percent-meta]] | Treasury | Passed |
|
||||
| — | 2024-03 | [[metadao-develop-faas]] | Strategy | Passed |
|
||||
| — | 2024-03 | [[metadao-migrate-autocrat-v02]] | Mechanism | Passed |
|
||||
| — | 2024-03 | [[metadao-otc-trade-colosseum]] | Treasury | Passed |
|
||||
| — | 2024-03 | [[metadao-appoint-nallok-proph3t-benevolent-dictators]] | Governance | Passed |
|
||||
| 16 | 2024-05 | [[metadao-compensation-proph3t-nallok]] | Hiring | Passed |
|
||||
| 19 | 2024-06 | [[metadao-fundraise-2]] | Fundraise | Passed |
|
||||
| 20 | 2024-08 | [[metadao-approve-q3-roadmap]] | Strategy | Passed |
|
||||
| 21 | 2024-08 | [[metadao-create-futardio]] | Strategy | Failed |
|
||||
| 22 | 2024-08 | [[metadao-services-agreement-organization-technology]] | Operations | Passed |
|
||||
| 23 | 2024-10 | [[metadao-hire-advaith-sekharan]] | Hiring | Passed |
|
||||
| 24 | 2024-10 | [[metadao-swap-150k-into-isc]] | Treasury | Failed |
|
||||
| 25 | 2025-01 | [[metadao-otc-trade-theia-1]] | Treasury | Failed |
|
||||
| 26 | 2025-01 | [[metadao-otc-trade-theia-2]] | Treasury | Passed |
|
||||
| 27 | 2025-01 | [[metadao-token-split-elastic-supply]] | Mechanism | Failed |
|
||||
| 28 | 2025-02 | [[metadao-hire-robin-hanson]] | Hiring | Passed |
|
||||
| 29 | 2025-02 | [[metadao-release-launchpad]] | Strategy | Passed |
|
||||
| — | 2025-08 | [[metadao-migrate-meta-token]] | Mechanism | Passed |
|
||||
| — | 2026-02 | [[metadao-vc-discount-rejection]] | Treasury | Passed (rejected deal) |
|
||||
| — | 2026-03 | [[metadao-ranger-finance-liquidation]] | Enforcement | Passed |
|
||||
| — | 2026-03 | [[metadao-fund-futarchy-research-hanson-gmu]] | Operations | Active |
|
||||
| — | 2026-03 | [[metadao-omnibus-migration-proposal]] | Mechanism | Passed |
|
||||
| — | 2026-03 | [[metadao-otc-trade-theia-3]] | Treasury | Active |
|
||||
MetaDAO has 37 recorded governance decisions spanning 2023-2026. For the full index with takeaways, see [[metadao-decision-markets]].
|
||||
|
||||
## Competitive Position
|
||||
- **First mover** in futarchy-governed organizations at scale
|
||||
- **No direct competitor** for conditional-market governance on Solana
|
||||
- **Indirect competitors**: Snapshot (token voting, free, widely adopted), Tally (onchain governance, Ethereum-focused)
|
||||
- **Structural advantage**: the Futarchic AMM is purpose-built; no existing AMM can replicate conditional token market settlement
|
||||
- **Key vulnerability**: depends on ecosystem project quality. Ranger liquidation and Trove collapse damaged credibility. Brand separation between MetaDAO curated launches and Futardio permissionless launches is an active design challenge.
|
||||
**Most significant:**
|
||||
- **Burn 99.3% META** (2024-03) — Community-proposed radical supply reduction. Changed MetaDAO's entire token economics.
|
||||
- **BDF3M appointment** (2024-03) — Futarchy chose benevolent dictators to resolve execution bottleneck. Novel governance experiment.
|
||||
- **Futardio concept rejected then approved** (2024-08 → 2025-02) — Market rejected a one-line proposal, approved the same concept 3 months later with full specification. Demonstrates futarchy's quality filtering.
|
||||
- **Robin Hanson hire** (2025-02) — Futarchy protocol hires the inventor of futarchy.
|
||||
- **VC discount OTC rejection** (2026-02) — Market rejected extractive VC deal; 16% price surge followed.
|
||||
- **Ranger liquidation** (2026-03) — First enforcement action on a major project. 97% support, $5M returned. Proof the unruggable mechanism works.
|
||||
|
||||
## Investment Thesis
|
||||
MetaDAO is the platform bet on futarchy as a governance mechanism. If decision markets prove superior to token voting, MetaDAO is the infrastructure layer that captures value from every futarchy-governed organization. Current evidence is mixed: the enforcement mechanism works (Ranger liquidation returned capital), but ecosystem quality varies (Trove collapse, Ranger token crash) and limited trading volume in uncontested decisions raises questions about mechanism utility at the margin.
|
||||
|
||||
MetaDAO is the platform bet on futarchy-governed capital formation. If ownership coins prove to be a better fundraising mechanism than traditional token launches — offering real investor protection, market-based pricing, and legal structure — MetaDAO is the infrastructure layer that captures value from every project in the ecosystem.
|
||||
|
||||
Current evidence: the enforcement mechanism works (two successful liquidations), demand exists (10 launches with early extreme oversubscription), and the platform generates real revenue ($2.51M in Q4 2025 alone). Open questions: whether demand sustains as oversubscription declines, whether the governance-as-a-service revenue can scale alongside capital formation, and whether Umia's Ethereum implementation creates meaningful competitive pressure.
|
||||
|
||||
**Thesis status:** ACTIVE
|
||||
|
||||
## Key Metrics to Track
|
||||
- % of total futarchic market volume (market share of decision markets)
|
||||
- Number of active projects with meaningful governance activity
|
||||
- Number and quality of curated ownership coin launches per quarter
|
||||
- Committed-to-raised ratio on new launches (trending from 200x → 1x — cooling or maturing?)
|
||||
- Curated ICO success rate (projects still active vs liquidated/abandoned)
|
||||
- Futardio permissionless launch success rate
|
||||
- Committed-to-raised ratio on new launches (trending from 200x → 1x)
|
||||
- Futarchic AMM fee revenue growth
|
||||
- Governance-as-a-service client count
|
||||
- Ecosystem token aggregate market cap
|
||||
- Umia launch timing and traction (competitive threat)
|
||||
|
||||
## Relationship to KB
|
||||
- [[MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale]] — core claim about MetaDAO
|
||||
- [[MetaDAOs Autocrat program implements futarchy through conditional token markets where proposals create parallel pass and fail universes settled by time-weighted average price over a three-day window]] — mechanism description
|
||||
- [[MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale]] — core claim
|
||||
- [[MetaDAOs Autocrat program implements futarchy through conditional token markets where proposals create parallel pass and fail universes settled by time-weighted average price over a three-day window]] — mechanism
|
||||
- [[MetaDAOs futarchy implementation shows limited trading volume in uncontested decisions]] — known limitation
|
||||
- [[futarchy-governed permissionless launches require brand separation to manage reputational liability because failed projects on a curated platform damage the platforms credibility]] — active design challenge
|
||||
- [[futarchy-governed liquidation is the enforcement mechanism that makes unruggable ICOs credible because investors can force full treasury return when teams materially misrepresent]] — enforcement
|
||||
- [[futarchy-governed permissionless launches require brand separation to manage reputational liability because failed projects on a curated platform damage the platforms credibility]] — brand separation rationale
|
||||
- [[metadao-ico-platform-demonstrates-15x-oversubscription-validating-futarchy-governed-capital-formation]] — demand validation
|
||||
- [[Living Capital vehicles likely fail the Howey test for securities classification because the structural separation of capital raise from investment decision eliminates the efforts of others prong]] — legal structure
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
Relevant Entities:
|
||||
- [[omnipair]] — leverage infrastructure for ecosystem
|
||||
- [[proph3t]] — founder
|
||||
- [[solomon]] — ecosystem launch
|
||||
- [[futardio]] — permissionless launch platform
|
||||
- [[umbra]] — first ownership coin launch
|
||||
- [[ranger-finance]] — first liquidation
|
||||
- [[futardio]] — permissionless launch platform (separate brand)
|
||||
- [[umia]] — cross-chain competitor (Base/Ethereum)
|
||||
- [[omnipair]] — ecosystem launch (#2, $OMFG)
|
||||
- [[mtncapital]] — first launch, first liquidation
|
||||
- [[ranger-finance]] — second liquidation, enforcement precedent
|
||||
- [[p2p-me]] — most recent curated ICO
|
||||
- [[superclaw]] — largest Futardio permissionless raise
|
||||
|
||||
Topics:
|
||||
- [[internet finance and decision markets]]
|
||||
- [[metadao-decision-markets]]
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
124
maps/metadao-decision-markets.md
Normal file
124
maps/metadao-decision-markets.md
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,124 @@
|
|||
# MetaDAO Decision Markets
|
||||
|
||||
Complete index of all futarchy governance decisions in MetaDAO's history. 37 recorded proposals spanning November 2023 through March 2026. Each decision was resolved through conditional token markets (Autocrat) where the market price determines the outcome.
|
||||
|
||||
## What These Markets Reveal
|
||||
|
||||
Seven decisions that define MetaDAO's evolution and demonstrate what futarchy actually does in practice:
|
||||
|
||||
### 1. The market rejects bad proposals, even good ideas
|
||||
The Futardio concept was proposed three times. First as a "memecoin launchpad" (August 2024) — rejected on reputational risk grounds. Then as a one-sentence "should MetaDAO create Futardio?" (November 2024) — rejected for zero specification. Finally as a detailed "Release a Launchpad" proposal with full mechanism design (February 2025) — passed. The market distinguished between a good idea and a good proposal. Same concept, three different proposals, market approved only the one with real substance.
|
||||
- [[metadao-develop-memecoin-launchpad]] → Failed
|
||||
- [[metadao-create-futardio]] → Failed
|
||||
- [[metadao-release-launchpad]] → Passed
|
||||
|
||||
### 2. Futarchy prevents value extraction
|
||||
A $6M OTC deal offering VCs a 30% discount on META was rejected via futarchy (February 2026). META surged 16% after the rejection. The market literally priced "we rejected the extractive deal" as positive. Earlier, Pantera Capital's OTC at discount failed (February 2024), Ben Hawkins' two OTC attempts failed (February 2024), and Theia's first attempt at a 12.7% discount failed (January 2025). But Theia's second attempt at a 14% *premium* passed, and their third at a 38% premium also passed. The pattern is clear: futarchy rejects below-market deals and approves above-market ones.
|
||||
- [[metadao-vc-discount-rejection]] → Rejected
|
||||
- [[metadao-otc-trade-pantera-capital]] → Failed
|
||||
- [[metadao-otc-trade-ben-hawkins]] → Failed
|
||||
- [[metadao-otc-trade-ben-hawkins-2]] → Failed
|
||||
- [[metadao-otc-trade-theia-1]] → Failed
|
||||
- [[metadao-otc-trade-theia-2]] → Passed (14% premium)
|
||||
- [[metadao-otc-trade-theia-3]] → Passed (38% premium)
|
||||
|
||||
### 3. Community can override founders on radical changes
|
||||
The 99.3% META burn (March 2024) was proposed by community members doctor.sol and rar3, not by founders. It eliminated nearly the entire treasury-held META supply, fundamentally changing tokenomics. This is a concrete example of futarchy enabling non-founder governance proposals with material treasury impact.
|
||||
- [[metadao-burn-993-percent-meta]] → Passed
|
||||
|
||||
### 4. Futarchy can choose temporary centralization when needed
|
||||
The BDF3M appointment (March 2024) made Proph3t and Nallok "Benevolent Dictators for 3 Months" to resolve an execution bottleneck. The market voted for centralization — with an expiration date. The term expired on schedule, FaaS launched, and the bottleneck resolved. Futarchy didn't resist centralization ideologically; it governed the *terms* of centralization.
|
||||
- [[metadao-appoint-nallok-proph3t-benevolent-dictators]] → Passed
|
||||
|
||||
### 5. Failed proposals succeed later when better specified
|
||||
The token split + elastic supply proposal failed in January 2025. A nearly identical proposal passed 6 months later (August 2025) as the META token migration (1:1000 split, mintable supply, new DAO v0.5). The difference: context had shifted, the DAO had exhausted its META treasury via the Theia OTC, and mintable tokens were now a necessity rather than a preference.
|
||||
- [[metadao-token-split-elastic-supply]] → Failed
|
||||
- [[metadao-migrate-meta-token]] → Passed
|
||||
|
||||
### 6. The enforcement mechanism works
|
||||
Ranger Finance liquidation (March 2026) — 97% market support, $5.04M USDC returned to holders after documented material misrepresentation. This was the second successful liquidation after mtnCapital (~September 2025). Two cases establish a pattern: the unruggable ICO enforcement mechanism is not theoretical. When teams misrepresent, the market votes to liquidate and capital returns.
|
||||
- [[metadao-ranger-finance-liquidation]] → Passed
|
||||
|
||||
### 7. Futarchy funds its own research
|
||||
Robin Hanson — the economist who invented futarchy in 2000 — was hired as advisor (February 2025), and a $80K GMU research proposal to experimentally test futarchy with 500 participants was filed (March 2026). The mechanism is investing in understanding itself.
|
||||
- [[metadao-hire-robin-hanson]] → Passed
|
||||
- [[metadao-fund-futarchy-research-hanson-gmu]] → Active
|
||||
|
||||
## Full Decision Index
|
||||
|
||||
### 2023 (3 proposals — all passed)
|
||||
|
||||
| Date | Proposal | Category | Outcome |
|
||||
|------|----------|----------|---------|
|
||||
| 2023-11-18 | [[metadao-develop-lst-vote-market]] | Strategy | Passed |
|
||||
| 2023-12-03 | [[metadao-migrate-autocrat-v01]] | Mechanism | Passed |
|
||||
| 2023-12-16 | [[metadao-develop-saber-vote-market]] | Mechanism | Passed |
|
||||
|
||||
### 2024 (21 proposals — 14 passed, 7 failed)
|
||||
|
||||
| Date | Proposal | Category | Outcome |
|
||||
|------|----------|----------|---------|
|
||||
| 2024-01-12 | [[metadao-create-spot-market-meta]] | Fundraise | Passed |
|
||||
| 2024-01-24 | [[metadao-develop-amm-program-for-futarchy]] | Mechanism | Passed |
|
||||
| 2024-02-05 | [[metadao-execute-creation-of-spot-market-for-meta]] | Treasury | Passed |
|
||||
| 2024-02-13 | [[metadao-otc-trade-ben-hawkins]] | Treasury | Failed |
|
||||
| 2024-02-18 | [[metadao-otc-trade-pantera-capital]] | Fundraise | Failed |
|
||||
| 2024-02-18 | [[metadao-otc-trade-ben-hawkins-2]] | Treasury | Failed |
|
||||
| 2024-02-20 | [[metadao-develop-multi-option-proposals]] | Mechanism | Failed |
|
||||
| 2024-02-26 | [[metadao-increase-meta-liquidity-dutch-auction]] | Treasury | Passed |
|
||||
| 2024-03-03 | [[metadao-burn-993-percent-meta]] | Treasury | Passed |
|
||||
| 2024-03-13 | [[metadao-develop-faas]] | Strategy | Passed |
|
||||
| 2024-03-19 | [[metadao-otc-trade-colosseum]] | Fundraise | Passed |
|
||||
| 2024-03-26 | [[metadao-appoint-nallok-proph3t-benevolent-dictators]] | Governance | Passed |
|
||||
| 2024-03-28 | [[metadao-migrate-autocrat-v02]] | Mechanism | Passed |
|
||||
| 2024-05-27 | [[metadao-compensation-proph3t-nallok]] | Hiring | Passed |
|
||||
| 2024-06-26 | [[metadao-fundraise-2]] | Fundraise | Passed |
|
||||
| 2024-08-03 | [[metadao-approve-q3-roadmap]] | Strategy | Passed |
|
||||
| 2024-08-14 | [[metadao-develop-memecoin-launchpad]] | Strategy | Failed |
|
||||
| 2024-08-31 | [[metadao-services-agreement-organization-technology]] | Operations | Passed |
|
||||
| 2024-10-22 | [[metadao-hire-advaith-sekharan]] | Hiring | Passed |
|
||||
| 2024-10-30 | [[metadao-swap-150k-into-isc]] | Treasury | Failed |
|
||||
| 2024-11-21 | [[metadao-create-futardio]] | Strategy | Failed |
|
||||
|
||||
### 2025 (7 proposals — 5 passed, 2 failed)
|
||||
|
||||
| Date | Proposal | Category | Outcome |
|
||||
|------|----------|----------|---------|
|
||||
| 2025-01-03 | [[metadao-otc-trade-theia-1]] | Treasury | Failed |
|
||||
| 2025-01-27 | [[metadao-otc-trade-theia-2]] | Fundraise | Passed |
|
||||
| 2025-01-28 | [[metadao-token-split-elastic-supply]] | Mechanism | Failed |
|
||||
| 2025-02-10 | [[metadao-hire-robin-hanson]] | Hiring | Passed |
|
||||
| 2025-02-26 | [[metadao-release-launchpad]] | Strategy | Passed |
|
||||
| 2025-07-21 | [[metadao-otc-trade-theia-3]] | Treasury | Passed |
|
||||
| 2025-08-07 | [[metadao-migrate-meta-token]] | Mechanism | Passed |
|
||||
|
||||
### 2026 (6 proposals — 2 passed, 1 rejected, 1 active, 2 pending)
|
||||
|
||||
| Date | Proposal | Category | Outcome |
|
||||
|------|----------|----------|---------|
|
||||
| 2026-02 | [[metadao-vc-discount-rejection]] | Treasury | Rejected |
|
||||
| 2026-03 | [[metadao-ranger-finance-liquidation]] | Enforcement | Passed |
|
||||
| 2026-03 | [[metadao-omnibus-migration-proposal]] | Mechanism | Passed |
|
||||
| 2026-03-21 | [[metadao-fund-futarchy-research-hanson-gmu]] | Operations | Active |
|
||||
| 2026-03-22 | [[metadao-governance-migration-2026-03]] | Mechanism | Active |
|
||||
| 2026-03 | [[metadao-meta036-hanson-futarchy-research]] | Operations | — |
|
||||
|
||||
## Summary Statistics
|
||||
|
||||
- **Total proposals:** 37
|
||||
- **Passed:** 24 (65%)
|
||||
- **Failed/Rejected:** 11 (30%)
|
||||
- **Active/Pending:** 3 (8%)
|
||||
- **Categories:** Treasury (11), Mechanism (8), Strategy (6), Fundraise (4), Hiring (3), Operations (3), Governance (1), Enforcement (1)
|
||||
- **OTC trade proposals:** 7 total — 3 passed (all at or above market), 4 failed (all below market)
|
||||
- **Time span:** November 2023 — March 2026 (~29 months)
|
||||
|
||||
The OTC pattern alone is the strongest empirical evidence for futarchy's anti-extraction properties: every below-market deal rejected, every at-or-above-market deal accepted.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
Topics:
|
||||
- [[internet finance and decision markets]]
|
||||
|
||||
Relevant Entities:
|
||||
- [[metadao]] — parent entity
|
||||
Loading…
Reference in a new issue