substantive-fix: address reviewer feedback (confidence_miscalibration)

domains/space-development/new-glenn-7m-fairing-creates-temporary-monopoly-on-large-format-satellite-launches.md

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
 type: claim
 domain: space-development
 description: "Physical fairing size constraints create captive customer dynamics where satellites requiring >5m fairings have no alternative launch provider"
-confidence: experimental
+confidence: likely
 source: NextBigFuture February 2026 report, AST SpaceMobile Block 2 specifications
 created: 2026-04-11
 title: New Glenn's 7-meter commercial fairing creates a temporary monopoly on large-format satellite launches until Starship enters commercial service
@@ -14,4 +14,4 @@ related_claims: ["[[reusable-launch-convergence-creates-us-china-duopoly-in-heav
 
 # New Glenn's 7-meter commercial fairing creates a temporary monopoly on large-format satellite launches until Starship enters commercial service
 
-AST SpaceMobile's Block 2 BlueBird satellites feature 2,400 sq ft phased array antennas — the largest commercial communications arrays ever flown in LEO. These satellites physically require New Glenn's 7-meter fairing and cannot launch on any other commercially available vehicle. Falcon 9's fairing is too small, and Starship's fairing is not yet available for commercial payloads. NextBigFuture reported in February 2026 that 'Without Blue Origin launches, AST SpaceMobile will not have usable service in 2026.' This creates a single-launcher concentration risk for an $8B+ market cap company whose 2026 commercial service viability depends entirely on Blue Origin's operational reliability. The fairing size constraint is the binding mechanism — this isn't customer preference but a physical impossibility of using alternative providers. This gives Blue Origin unusual pricing and scheduling power in the relationship until Starship becomes commercially available. The case demonstrates that within the broader launch market, specific capability gaps (like large fairing availability) can create temporary sub-market monopolies even when the overall launch market is competitive.
+AST SpaceMobile's Block 2 BlueBird satellites feature 2,400 sq ft phased array antennas — the largest commercial communications arrays ever flown in LEO. These satellites physically require New Glenn's 7-meter fairing and cannot launch on any other commercially available vehicle. Falcon 9's fairing is too small, and Starship's fairing is not yet available for commercial payloads. NextBigFuture reported in February 2026 that 'Without Blue Origin launches, AST SpaceMobile will not have usable service in 2026.' This creates a single-launcher concentration risk for an $8B+ market cap company whose 2026 commercial service viability depends entirely on Blue Origin's operational reliability. The fairing size constraint is the binding mechanism — this isn't customer preference but a physical impossibility of using alternative providers. This gives Blue Origin unusual pricing and scheduling power in the relationship until Starship becomes commercially available. The case demonstrates that within the broader launch market, specific capability gaps (like large fairing availability) can create temporary sub-market monopolies even when the overall launch market is competitive.