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domains/internet-finance/polymarket-kalshi-duopoly-emerging-as-dominant-us-prediction-market-structure-with-complementary-regulatory-models.md
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@ -40,14 +40,14 @@ Kalshi litigation outcome affects competitors Robinhood, Coinbase, FanDuel, and
### Additional Evidence (challenge)
*Source: [[2026-03-19-coindesk-ninth-circuit-nevada-kalshi]] | Added: 2026-03-19*
*Source: 2026-03-19-coindesk-ninth-circuit-nevada-kalshi | Added: 2026-03-19*
The emerging circuit split (Fourth and Ninth Circuits pro-state, Third Circuit pro-federal) creates operational exclusion zones for prediction markets regardless of CFTC registration. Nevada can now exclude Kalshi for at least two weeks pending preliminary injunction hearing, and Arizona filed first criminal charges against Kalshi on March 17, 2026. This state-by-state enforcement pattern fragments the market rather than enabling a stable duopoly structure, as platforms face different legal treatment across jurisdictions.
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### Additional Evidence (confirm)
*Source: [[2026-03-26-tg-shared-0xweiler-2037189643037200456-s-46]] | Added: 2026-03-26*
*Source: 2026-03-26-tg-shared-0xweiler-2037189643037200456-s-46 | Added: 2026-03-26*
Kalshi raised at $22 billion valuation on March 19, 2026, just 12 days after Polymarket's reported $20 billion valuation target. The near-parity valuations confirm the duopoly structure with both platforms achieving similar market recognition.