diff --git a/inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/2026-03-26-polymarket-p2p-protocol-commitment-market.json b/inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/2026-03-26-polymarket-p2p-protocol-commitment-market.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..f4ceb98e --- /dev/null +++ b/inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/2026-03-26-polymarket-p2p-protocol-commitment-market.json @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +{ + "rejected_claims": [ + { + "filename": "prediction-market-participation-by-issuers-in-own-ico-commitment-markets-creates-circular-social-proof-with-no-arbitrage-correction.md", + "issues": [ + "missing_attribution_extractor" + ] + } + ], + "validation_stats": { + "total": 1, + "kept": 0, + "fixed": 3, + "rejected": 1, + "fixes_applied": [ + "prediction-market-participation-by-issuers-in-own-ico-commitment-markets-creates-circular-social-proof-with-no-arbitrage-correction.md:set_created:2026-03-26", + "prediction-market-participation-by-issuers-in-own-ico-commitment-markets-creates-circular-social-proof-with-no-arbitrage-correction.md:stripped_wiki_link:futarchy-is-manipulation-resistant-because-attack-attempts-c", + "prediction-market-participation-by-issuers-in-own-ico-commitment-markets-creates-circular-social-proof-with-no-arbitrage-correction.md:stripped_wiki_link:prediction-market-boom-is-primarily-a-sports-gambling-boom-w" + ], + "rejections": [ + "prediction-market-participation-by-issuers-in-own-ico-commitment-markets-creates-circular-social-proof-with-no-arbitrage-correction.md:missing_attribution_extractor" + ] + }, + "model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5", + "date": "2026-03-26" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/inbox/queue/2026-03-26-polymarket-p2p-protocol-commitment-market.md b/inbox/queue/2026-03-26-polymarket-p2p-protocol-commitment-market.md index fcfbe6b7..c51c4f1a 100644 --- a/inbox/queue/2026-03-26-polymarket-p2p-protocol-commitment-market.md +++ b/inbox/queue/2026-03-26-polymarket-p2p-protocol-commitment-market.md @@ -7,9 +7,12 @@ date: 2026-03-26 domain: internet-finance secondary_domains: [] format: data -status: unprocessed +status: enrichment priority: high tags: [polymarket, p2p-protocol, prediction-markets, futarchy, metadao, social-proof, manipulation] +processed_by: rio +processed_date: 2026-03-26 +extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5" --- ## Content @@ -76,3 +79,17 @@ PRIMARY CONNECTION: Session 11 CC2 — "Prediction market participation by proje WHY ARCHIVED: The probability shift from 77% to 99.8% on launch day combined with only $6,852 actual commitments creates a testable tension. This is the most direct current evidence for or against the circular social proof mechanism. ALSO: the raw probability cascade data is the primary input for any claim about Polymarket's accuracy on futarchy ICO markets. EXTRACTION HINT: Wait for ICO close (March 30) and Polymarket resolution (July 1) before extracting the final claim. The mechanism claim can be extracted now; the empirical confirmation/disconfirmation must wait. Flag as "extract after resolution" for the highest-confidence version. + + +## Key Facts +- Polymarket P2P Protocol ICO commitment prediction market opened March 14, 2026 +- Market has 25 outcome tiers ranging from >$1M to >$100M +- Total trading volume on the market: $1.7M as of March 26, 2026 +- Market closes July 1, 2026 +- As of March 26 (ICO launch day): >$6M probability was 99.8%, >$8M was 97%, >$10M was 93% +- Actual ICO commitments as of March 26: $6,852 of $6M target +- ICO closes March 30, 2026 (4 days after launch) +- Previous probability for >$6M was 77% as of approximately March 14 +- Implied median prediction: $20-25M total commitments +- Polymarket rules prohibit market participants from influencing outcomes they're trading on +- Traders in Polymarket comment section alleged P2P team 'openly participated' in the market (unconfirmed)