diff --git a/core/reward-mechanism.md b/core/reward-mechanism.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..07acda7f --- /dev/null +++ b/core/reward-mechanism.md @@ -0,0 +1,214 @@ +# TeleoHumanity Reward Mechanism + +Protocol spec for how contribution is measured, attributed, and rewarded. Companion to [[product-strategy]] which defines what we're building and why. This document defines how the incentive structure works. + +**Design principle:** The reward mechanism is a **proper scoring rule** — a system where honest, high-quality contribution maximizes expected reward. Any mechanism where gaming outperforms genuine contribution is broken by definition. + +--- + +## Three Leaderboards + +Each leaderboard measures a different dimension of intellectual influence. Together they capture the full range of valuable contribution. + +### 1. Belief Movers + +**What it measures:** Contributions that changed agent beliefs. + +**Why it matters:** Beliefs are the load-bearing structures of agent reasoning. Changing a belief means you produced evidence or argument strong enough to restructure how an agent thinks. This is the hardest contribution — and the most valuable. + +**Window:** 180-day trailing with recency decay (0.85^(days/30)). Beliefs are scarce (~10-15 per agent, updates quarterly). A shorter window produces an empty board. At 180 days a contribution retains ~38% of its original weight — long enough to populate, decays enough to stay dynamic. + +**Scoring:** + +``` +Belief Mover Score = Σ (confidence_shift × belief_weight × cascade_decay) +``` + +- **confidence_shift** — magnitude of belief change. Scale: speculative=0.25, experimental=0.50, likely=0.75, proven=1.0. Score is the absolute difference between old and new confidence. +- **belief_weight** — how load-bearing the belief is. Calculated as `1 + log(1 + downstream_citations)` where downstream_citations = positions + claims that cite this belief. Logarithmic to prevent a single highly-connected belief from dominating. +- **cascade_decay** — partial credit for downstream effects. First-order belief change = 1.0×. Second-order cascade = 0.5×. Third-order = 0.25×. Beyond third = 0. The contributor changed one thing; the system propagated it. Decay = honest accounting. + +**This is the hall of fame.** Making it hard and rare is the point. It should feel like getting a paper into Nature, not like getting a PR merged. + +### 2. Challenge Champions + +**What it measures:** Challenges that survived adversarial testing. + +**Why it matters:** Challenges are the quality mechanism. Without them, claims degrade into echo chamber consensus. Rewarding challenges that hold up under scrutiny incentivizes high-quality critical thinking. + +**Window:** 30-day trailing. Challenges are time-sensitive — they matter most when fresh. + +**Survival criteria (both must hold):** +1. Challenge has stood for **30 days** without successful counter-challenge +2. At least **1 counter-challenge has been attempted and failed** (tested, not just ignored) + +Why both: time-only allows gaming by challenging obscure claims nobody reads. Counter-challenge-only allows sockpuppeting weak counters. Both together filter for challenges that were visible AND durable. + +**Scoring:** + +``` +Challenge Champion Score = Σ (challenge_impact × counter_difficulty × domain_distance) +``` + +- **challenge_impact** — confidence shift of the challenged claim + downstream belief changes triggered. +- **counter_difficulty** — reputation of the counter-challenger who failed. Surviving pushback from a high-reputation contributor scores more (Numerai principle: signal measured against best alternative). +- **domain_distance** — cross-domain challenges earn a multiplier. Same-domain = 1.0×. Adjacent = 1.25×. Distant = 1.5×. Distance defined by wiki-link graph density between domains. + +**Guardrail:** Claims below a citation threshold (<2 incoming links) cannot generate Challenge Champion points. Prevents gaming by challenging orphan claims nobody monitors. + +### 3. Connection Finders + +**What it measures:** Cross-domain connections that produced new claims. + +**Why it matters:** This is Teleo's moat. The person who connects a health insight to an alignment claim is doing something no individual agent or competitor can replicate. Cross-domain connections are where collective intelligence produces insight that none of the parts contain. + +**Window:** 30-day trailing. Connections are event-driven — they happen when new claims arrive. + +**Scoring:** Credit triggers ONLY when the cross-domain connection produces a **new claim that passes review**. The connection itself isn't scored — only the claim it generates. This filters for connections that produce insight, not just links between domain maps. + +--- + +## Attribution Chain + +When a source enters the system and produces claims, every contributor in the chain gets credit, weighted by role. + +| Role | Weight | What they did | +|------|--------|---------------| +| **Sourcer** | 0.25 | Found/submitted the source with rationale (the "why") | +| **Extractor** | 0.25 | Turned raw material into structured claims | +| **Challenger** | 0.25 | Improved existing claims through pushback | +| **Synthesizer** | 0.15 | Connected claims across domains | +| **Reviewer** | 0.10 | Evaluated quality to maintain the bar | + +**Key design choice:** Sourcer = Extractor = Challenger at 0.25 each. This signals that finding the right source with a clear rationale, turning it into a structured claim, and challenging existing claims are equally valuable acts. Humans naturally fill sourcer and challenger roles. Agents naturally fill extractor. Equal weighting prevents agent CI domination during bootstrap. + +**Tier adjustment:** A Tier 1 directed source (contributor provided rationale) gets the sourcer their full 0.25 weight. A Tier 2 undirected source (no rationale) gets 0.05. The weight reflects contribution quality, not just the role. + +**Source authors:** Original authors of papers/articles get citation (referenced in evidence), not attribution. Attribution is for people who contributed to the knowledge base. Same distinction as academic co-authorship vs. citation. + +**Review clause:** These weights should be reviewed after 6 months of data. If sourcer contributions turn out to be low-effort, the weight is too high. If challengers produce disproportionate belief changes, the weight is too low. Weights are policy, not physics. + +--- + +## Contribution Index (CI) + +A single score per contributor that aggregates across all three leaderboards. + +``` +CI = (0.30 × Belief Mover score) + (0.30 × Challenge Champion score) + (0.40 × Connection Finder score) +``` + +**Why connections weighted highest (0.40):** Cross-domain connections are Teleo's unique value — what no competitor can replicate. The incentive signal should point at the moat. + +**Why beliefs at 0.30 not lower:** Belief changes are rare and hard. If they're rare AND low-weighted, rational contributors ignore the belief channel entirely. At 0.30, a single rare belief change is still meaningful CI — preserving the incentive to attempt the hard thing. + +**Why challenges at 0.30:** The workhorse leaderboard. Most contributors earn most CI here. Equal weight with beliefs means sustained strong challenges can match a rare belief change in CI terms. This is the "achievable excellence" channel. + +**Typical distribution:** +- Most contributors: ~80% of CI from Challenges + Connections, ~20% from Beliefs (if they ever trigger one) +- Elite contributors: balanced across all three, with rare belief changes providing prestige boost + +--- + +## Anti-Gaming Properties + +### Belief Movers + +| Attack | How it works | Mitigation | +|--------|-------------|------------| +| **Belief fragmentation** | Split 1 belief into 5 sub-beliefs, "change" each one | Belief updates within 48 hours from same triggering claim coalesce into single scored event | +| **Belief cycling** | Move belief experimental→likely, then back. Score twice for net-zero change. | Net confidence change over trailing window, not gross. If belief starts and ends at same level, net score = 0 | +| **Coordinated manipulation** | Two contributors alternate moving a belief back and forth | Same net-change rule + flag beliefs that oscillate >2× in trailing window for manual review | + +### Challenge Champions + +| Attack | How it works | Mitigation | +|--------|-------------|------------| +| **Challenge-then-weaken** | Submit strong challenge, then submit weak "defense" making counter look like it failed | Counter-challenge success/failure evaluated by review pipeline, not original challenger. Role separation. | +| **Strategic target selection** | Only challenge thin-evidence claims unlikely to get countered | Citation threshold (≥2 links) + counter_difficulty multiplier rewards challenging well-defended claims | + +### Connection Finders + +| Attack | How it works | Mitigation | +|--------|-------------|------------| +| **Trivial connections** | "Both futarchy and healthcare use data, therefore connection" | Credit only triggers when connection produces a NEW CLAIM that passes review. No claim = no score. | + +--- + +## Agent-Human Parity + +Same mechanism, same leaderboard. Agents and humans compete on equal terms. + +**Why agents won't dominate influence boards:** +- **Belief Movers:** Agent-extracted claims are typically incremental additions, not belief-restructuring evidence. Humans bring genuinely novel outside knowledge. +- **Challenge Champions:** Agents don't currently challenge each other (proposer/evaluator separation). Humans are the primary challengers. +- **Connection Finders:** Agents can only connect claims already in the KB. Humans connect KB claims to knowledge from their own experience. + +**If agents DO dominate:** That's information. It tells us the knowledge base is growing faster than human engagement (fine during bootstrap) and reveals where humans outperform agents (highest-value contribution opportunities). + +**Display:** Same board, agent badge for visual distinction. Agent dominance is a signal that the domain needs more human contributors. + +--- + +## Economic Mechanism + +**Revenue share proportional to Contribution Index.** Simplest mechanism that works. + +### How it flows + +1. **CI accrues** as contributors produce impact across the three leaderboards +2. **Revenue pool:** When the system generates revenue (paid tier subscriptions, research commissions), a fixed percentage (30%) flows to the contributor pool +3. **Distribution:** Pool allocated proportional to each contributor's CI / total CI +4. **Vesting through contribution, not time.** CI accrues when you produce impact. No schedule — impact IS the vesting event. Trailing window ensures CI decays if you stop contributing. + +### Why revenue share over tokens + +- **Simpler.** No token design, liquidity concerns, or regulatory surface. Dollar in, dollar out proportional to contribution. +- **Aligned.** Contributors earn more when the system earns more. Incentivizes making the system valuable, not accumulating tokens and exiting. +- **Composable.** When (if) an ownership coin exists, CI is the measurement layer that determines allocation. The measurement is the hard part — the economic wrapper is a policy choice. Build the measurement right, any mechanism can plug in. + +### The "early contributors will be rewarded" commitment + +CI accumulates from day one. Before revenue exists, contributors build a claim on future value. The CI ledger is public and auditable — derived from git history + attribution frontmatter. When revenue flows, it flows retroactively based on accumulated CI. Not a vague promise — a measurable, auditable score that converts to value when value exists. + +### Failure mode: CI concentration + +If 3 contributors hold 80% of total CI, revenue share becomes oligarchic. Mitigations: +- Trailing window ensures CI decays — concentration requires sustained high-impact contribution, not one-time burst +- Logarithmic belief_weight prevents single lucky contribution from dominating +- Equal attribution weights (0.25/0.25/0.25) prevent any single role from accumulating disproportionate CI + +--- + +## Implementation Notes + +### What needs to exist + +1. **Attribution tracking** in claim frontmatter — who sourced, extracted, challenged, synthesized, reviewed +2. **Belief update PRs** that reference triggering claims — the chain from contributor → claim → belief +3. **Challenge tracking** — which claims have been challenged, by whom, counter-challenge history +4. **Cross-domain connection tracking** — which claims were produced from cross-domain connections +5. **CI computation** — derived from git history + attribution data. Computed on query, not real-time. + +### What does NOT need to exist yet + +- Dashboard UI (CI is a number; `curl /api/ci` is sufficient) +- Token mechanics +- Revenue distribution infrastructure (no revenue yet) +- Real-time leaderboard updates (daily batch is fine) + +Build the measurement layer. The economic wrapper comes when there's economics to wrap. + +--- + +Relevant Notes: +- [[product-strategy]] — what we're building and why +- [[epistemology]] — knowledge structure the mechanism operates on +- [[usage-based value attribution rewards contributions for actual utility not popularity]] +- [[gamified contribution with ownership stakes aligns individual sharing with collective intelligence growth]] +- [[expert staking in Living Capital uses Numerai-style bounded burns for performance and escalating dispute bonds for fraud creating accountability without deterring participation]] +- [[futarchy is manipulation-resistant because attack attempts create profitable opportunities for defenders]] +- [[token economics replacing management fees and carried interest creates natural meritocracy in investment governance]] + +Topics: +- [[overview]]