extract: 2026-01-29-metr-time-horizon-1-1-methodology-update

Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>

inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/2026-01-29-metr-time-horizon-1-1-methodology-update.json

@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
+{
+  "rejected_claims": [
+    {
+      "filename": "ai-autonomous-capability-doubling-every-131-days-creates-structural-governance-lag.md",
+      "issues": [
+        "missing_attribution_extractor"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "filename": "evaluation-infrastructure-saturates-at-capability-levels-where-oversight-matters-most.md",
+      "issues": [
+        "missing_attribution_extractor"
+      ]
+    }
+  ],
+  "validation_stats": {
+    "total": 2,
+    "kept": 0,
+    "fixed": 6,
+    "rejected": 2,
+    "fixes_applied": [
+      "ai-autonomous-capability-doubling-every-131-days-creates-structural-governance-lag.md:set_created:2026-03-23",
+      "ai-autonomous-capability-doubling-every-131-days-creates-structural-governance-lag.md:stripped_wiki_link:verification degrades faster than capability grows",
+      "evaluation-infrastructure-saturates-at-capability-levels-where-oversight-matters-most.md:set_created:2026-03-23",
+      "evaluation-infrastructure-saturates-at-capability-levels-where-oversight-matters-most.md:stripped_wiki_link:verification degrades faster than capability grows",
+      "evaluation-infrastructure-saturates-at-capability-levels-where-oversight-matters-most.md:stripped_wiki_link:economic forces push humans out of every cognitive loop wher",
+      "evaluation-infrastructure-saturates-at-capability-levels-where-oversight-matters-most.md:stripped_wiki_link:human verification bandwidth is the binding constraint on AG"
+    ],
+    "rejections": [
+      "ai-autonomous-capability-doubling-every-131-days-creates-structural-governance-lag.md:missing_attribution_extractor",
+      "evaluation-infrastructure-saturates-at-capability-levels-where-oversight-matters-most.md:missing_attribution_extractor"
+    ]
+  },
+  "model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
+  "date": "2026-03-23"
+}

inbox/queue/2026-01-29-metr-time-horizon-1-1-methodology-update.md

@@ -7,9 +7,12 @@ date: 2026-01-29
 domain: ai-alignment
 secondary_domains: []
 format: blog-post
-status: unprocessed
+status: enrichment
 priority: high
 tags: [metr, time-horizon, capability-measurement, evaluation-methodology, autonomy, scaling, saturation]
+processed_by: theseus
+processed_date: 2026-03-23
+extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
 ---
 
 ## Content
@@ -65,3 +68,15 @@ METR published an updated version of their autonomous AI capability measurement
 PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[scalable oversight degrades rapidly as capability gaps grow with debate achieving only 50 percent success at moderate gaps]]
 WHY ARCHIVED: Quantifies the capability-governance gap with the most precise measurement available; reveals measurement infrastructure itself is failing for frontier models
 EXTRACTION HINT: Two claims possible — one on the doubling rate as governance timeline mismatch; one on evaluation saturation as a new instance of B4. Check whether the doubling rate number updates or supersedes existing claims.
+
+
+## Key Facts
+- METR Time Horizon 1.1 expanded task suite from 170 to 228 tasks (34% growth)
+- Long tasks (8+ hours) doubled from 14 to 31 in the updated framework
+- Only 5 of 31 long tasks have measured human baseline times; remainder use estimates
+- Claude Opus 4.6 (Feb 2026): ~719 minutes (~12 hours) 50% success horizon, later revised to ~14.5 hours
+- GPT-5.2 (Dec 2025): ~352 minutes 50% success horizon
+- Claude Opus 4.5 (Nov 2025): ~320 minutes (revised up from 289)
+- GPT-4 Turbo (2024): 3-10 minutes 50% success horizon
+- Infrastructure migrated from in-house Vivaria to open-source Inspect framework (UK AI Security Institute)
+- Different model versions use varying scaffolds: modular-public, flock-public, triframe_inspect