diff --git a/domains/internet-finance/futarchy-excels-at-relative-selection-but-fails-at-absolute-prediction-because-ordinal-ranking-works-while-cardinal-estimation-requires-calibration.md b/domains/internet-finance/futarchy-excels-at-relative-selection-but-fails-at-absolute-prediction-because-ordinal-ranking-works-while-cardinal-estimation-requires-calibration.md
index 21b2f793b..b71395c52 100644
--- a/domains/internet-finance/futarchy-excels-at-relative-selection-but-fails-at-absolute-prediction-because-ordinal-ranking-works-while-cardinal-estimation-requires-calibration.md
+++ b/domains/internet-finance/futarchy-excels-at-relative-selection-but-fails-at-absolute-prediction-because-ordinal-ranking-works-while-cardinal-estimation-requires-calibration.md
@@ -1,10 +1,13 @@
 ```markdown
-description: Optimism's futarchy experiment outperformed traditional grants by $32.5M TVL but overshot magnitude predictions by 8x, revealing mechanism's strength is comparative ranking not absolute forecasting
+description: Optimism's futarchy experiment outperformed traditional grants by $32.5M TVL but overshot magnitude predictions by 8x, revealing mechanism's strength is comparative ranking not absolute forecasting. However, MetaDAO ICOs show a 5-of-9 failure rate and 194% return without a clear baseline, complicating the assessment of futarchy's broader success in relative selection.
 source: Optimism Futarchy v1 Preliminary Findings (2025-06-12), 21-day experiment with 430 forecasters
 secondary_domains: ["collective-intelligence"]
 depends_on: ["MetaDAOs futarchy implementation shows limited trading volume in uncontested decisions.md"]
 related: ["futarchy variance creates portfolio problem because mechanism selects both top performers and worst performers simultaneously", "play money futarchy attracts participation but produces uncalibrated predictions because absence of downside risk removes selection pressure", "futarchy-excels-at-relative-selection-but-fails-at-absolute-prediction-because-ordinal-ranking-works-while-cardinal-estimation-requires-calibration", "futarchy-variance-creates-portfolio-problem-because-mechanism-selects-both-top-performers-and-worst-performers-simultaneously", "play-money-futarchy-attracts-participation-but-produces-uncalibrated-predictions-because-absence-of-downside-risk- removes-selection-pressure", "speculative markets aggregate information through incentive and selection effects not wisdom of crowds", "domain-expertise-loses-to-trading-skill-in-futarchy-markets-because-prediction-accuracy-requires-calibration-not-just-knowledge"]
 reweave_edges: ["futarchy variance creates portfolio problem because mechanism selects both top performers and worst performers simultaneously|related|2026-04-18", "play money futarchy attracts participation but produces uncalibrated predictions because absence of downside risk removes selection pressure|related|2026-04-19"]
-confidence: speculative
+confidence: experimental
+challenging_evidence:
+  - source: Pine Analytics MetaDAO Portfolio Analysis (2026-04-01)
+    description: MetaDAO ICOs had a 5-of-9 failure rate, and the portfolio returned 194% over 18 months, but without a clear baseline comparison, the success of relative selection is uninterpretable.
 - foundations/collective-intelligence/_map
 ```
\ No newline at end of file