extract: 2026-02-nextbigfuture-ast-spacemobile-ng3-dependency
Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>
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{
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"rejected_claims": [
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{
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"filename": "launch-cadence-is-distinct-capability-from-orbital-insertion.md",
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"issues": [
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"missing_attribution_extractor"
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]
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},
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{
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"filename": "second-tier-launch-vehicles-create-customer-concentration-risk.md",
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"issues": [
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"missing_attribution_extractor"
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]
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}
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],
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"validation_stats": {
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"total": 2,
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"kept": 0,
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"fixed": 5,
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"rejected": 2,
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"fixes_applied": [
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"launch-cadence-is-distinct-capability-from-orbital-insertion.md:set_created:2026-03-22",
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"launch-cadence-is-distinct-capability-from-orbital-insertion.md:stripped_wiki_link:reusability-without-rapid-turnaround-and-minimal-refurbishme",
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"launch-cadence-is-distinct-capability-from-orbital-insertion.md:stripped_wiki_link:Starship-economics-depend-on-cadence-and-reuse-rate-not-vehi",
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"second-tier-launch-vehicles-create-customer-concentration-risk.md:set_created:2026-03-22",
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"second-tier-launch-vehicles-create-customer-concentration-risk.md:stripped_wiki_link:single-player-dependency-is-greatest-near-term-fragility.md"
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],
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"rejections": [
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"launch-cadence-is-distinct-capability-from-orbital-insertion.md:missing_attribution_extractor",
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"second-tier-launch-vehicles-create-customer-concentration-risk.md:missing_attribution_extractor"
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]
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},
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"model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
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"date": "2026-03-22"
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}
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@ -7,9 +7,13 @@ date: 2026-02-01
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domain: space-development
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secondary_domains: []
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format: thread
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status: unprocessed
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status: null-result
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priority: medium
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tags: [new-glenn, blue-origin, AST-SpaceMobile, launch-cadence, direct-to-device, satellite-constellation, commercial-consequences]
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processed_by: astra
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processed_date: 2026-03-22
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extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
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extraction_notes: "LLM returned 2 claims, 2 rejected by validator"
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---
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## Content
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@ -45,3 +49,12 @@ AST SpaceMobile needs Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket to deliver its next-generat
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PRIMARY CONNECTION: single-player-dependency-is-greatest-near-term-fragility (customer-level dependency variant)
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WHY ARCHIVED: Concrete commercial consequences of launch cadence gap — the strongest quantified evidence that "launch vehicle operational readiness" is distinct from "launch vehicle technical capability"
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EXTRACTION HINT: Extract the cadence vs. capability distinction as a claim — it's specific, arguable, and evidenced by observable behavior
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## Key Facts
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- AST SpaceMobile ticker: ASTS (publicly traded)
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- Block 2 BlueBird specifications: 2,400 sq ft phased array antenna, up to 120 Mbps peak speeds
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- Full continuous D2D service requires 45-60 satellites
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- NG-3 NET late February 2026, carries BlueBird 7 (Block 2 FM2)
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- Tim Farrar analyst projection: 21-42 Block 2 satellites by end-2026 if delays continue
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- AST SpaceMobile has commercial contracts with AT&T and Verizon
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