From 51b3e8d5b1e85b29e3d9e7515cf7627db756cb64 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: m3taversal Date: Tue, 21 Apr 2026 16:59:30 +0100 Subject: [PATCH] calibrate: 5 confidence downgrades based on evidence strength MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit - punctuated-equilibrium: experimental → speculative (Bak-Sneppen as THE mechanism is actively debated in biology) - recursive-improvement: likely → experimental (broad meta-claim) - riding-waves: likely → experimental (strategic framework, limited empirical testing) - value-flows-to-scarcity: likely → experimental (framework) - independent-judgment: likely → experimental (behavioral claim) Kept proven: hill-climbing, simulated-annealing, mechanism-design, Vickrey, path-dependence, product-space (all textbook/Nobel-level). Kept likely: EMH, cascades, Hayek, Rumelt strategy claims, Markov blankets, existential risk (all well-cited with broad acceptance). Pentagon-Agent: Leo --- ...-calibrates-off-each-other-nobody-anchors-to-fundamentals.md | 2 +- ...of-human-progress-because-we-get-better-at-getting-better.md | 2 +- ...fore-incumbents-respond-through-their-predictable-inertia.md | 2 +- ...g-resource-scarcity-analysis-the-core-strategic-framework.md | 2 +- ...n-coupled-fitness-landscapes-self-organize-to-criticality.md | 2 +- 5 files changed, 5 insertions(+), 5 deletions(-) diff --git a/domains/grand-strategy/good-strategy-requires-independent-judgment-that-resists-social-consensus-because-when-everyone-calibrates-off-each-other-nobody-anchors-to-fundamentals.md b/domains/grand-strategy/good-strategy-requires-independent-judgment-that-resists-social-consensus-because-when-everyone-calibrates-off-each-other-nobody-anchors-to-fundamentals.md index 9684cab4b..1d9952ba8 100644 --- a/domains/grand-strategy/good-strategy-requires-independent-judgment-that-resists-social-consensus-because-when-everyone-calibrates-off-each-other-nobody-anchors-to-fundamentals.md +++ b/domains/grand-strategy/good-strategy-requires-independent-judgment-that-resists-social-consensus-because-when-everyone-calibrates-off-each-other-nobody-anchors-to-fundamentals.md @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ type: claim domain: grand-strategy description: "Strategic insight requires forming views from primary evidence rather than from the consensus of other strategists -- social calibration produces correlated errors that cascade" -confidence: likely +confidence: experimental source: "Rumelt (2011), Kahneman (anchoring, 1974), Soros (reflexivity, 1987), Keynes (beauty contest, 1936)" created: 2026-04-21 secondary_domains: [collective-intelligence, internet-finance] diff --git a/domains/grand-strategy/recursive-improvement-is-the-engine-of-human-progress-because-we-get-better-at-getting-better.md b/domains/grand-strategy/recursive-improvement-is-the-engine-of-human-progress-because-we-get-better-at-getting-better.md index 1b95f454b..7487f4af2 100644 --- a/domains/grand-strategy/recursive-improvement-is-the-engine-of-human-progress-because-we-get-better-at-getting-better.md +++ b/domains/grand-strategy/recursive-improvement-is-the-engine-of-human-progress-because-we-get-better-at-getting-better.md @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ type: claim domain: grand-strategy description: "The compounding of meta-capability -- improving the rate of improvement itself -- is the mechanism that separates civilizational progress from biological evolution" -confidence: likely +confidence: experimental source: "m3taversal (Architectural Investing manuscript), Deutsch 'The Beginning of Infinity' (2011), Mokyr 'The Lever of Riches' (1990)" created: 2026-04-21 secondary_domains: [collective-intelligence, ai-alignment] diff --git a/domains/grand-strategy/riding-waves-of-change-requires-anticipating-the-attractor-state-and-positioning-before-incumbents-respond-through-their-predictable-inertia.md b/domains/grand-strategy/riding-waves-of-change-requires-anticipating-the-attractor-state-and-positioning-before-incumbents-respond-through-their-predictable-inertia.md index 5419923b2..204bc4614 100644 --- a/domains/grand-strategy/riding-waves-of-change-requires-anticipating-the-attractor-state-and-positioning-before-incumbents-respond-through-their-predictable-inertia.md +++ b/domains/grand-strategy/riding-waves-of-change-requires-anticipating-the-attractor-state-and-positioning-before-incumbents-respond-through-their-predictable-inertia.md @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ type: claim domain: grand-strategy description: "Strategic advantage during transitions comes from reading where the system is headed (attractor state) and positioning while incumbents are still optimizing for the current equilibrium" -confidence: likely +confidence: experimental source: "Rumelt (2011), Grove 'Only the Paranoid Survive' (1996), Gaddis 'On Grand Strategy' (2018)" created: 2026-04-21 secondary_domains: [mechanisms] diff --git a/domains/grand-strategy/value-flows-to-whichever-resources-are-scarce-and-disruption-shifts-which-resources-are-scarce-making-resource-scarcity-analysis-the-core-strategic-framework.md b/domains/grand-strategy/value-flows-to-whichever-resources-are-scarce-and-disruption-shifts-which-resources-are-scarce-making-resource-scarcity-analysis-the-core-strategic-framework.md index a2087ab98..440cb2c6a 100644 --- a/domains/grand-strategy/value-flows-to-whichever-resources-are-scarce-and-disruption-shifts-which-resources-are-scarce-making-resource-scarcity-analysis-the-core-strategic-framework.md +++ b/domains/grand-strategy/value-flows-to-whichever-resources-are-scarce-and-disruption-shifts-which-resources-are-scarce-making-resource-scarcity-analysis-the-core-strategic-framework.md @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ type: claim domain: grand-strategy description: "Every disruption is a scarcity shift -- what was scarce becomes abundant and what was abundant becomes scarce, and value migrates accordingly" -confidence: likely +confidence: experimental source: "m3taversal (Architectural Investing manuscript), Christensen (commoditization/de-commoditization, 2003), Thompson (Aggregation Theory)" created: 2026-04-21 secondary_domains: [internet-finance, entertainment] diff --git a/domains/mechanisms/punctuated-equilibrium-emerges-from-darwinian-microevolution-without-additional-principles-because-extremal-dynamics-on-coupled-fitness-landscapes-self-organize-to-criticality.md b/domains/mechanisms/punctuated-equilibrium-emerges-from-darwinian-microevolution-without-additional-principles-because-extremal-dynamics-on-coupled-fitness-landscapes-self-organize-to-criticality.md index cc97353da..059da36dc 100644 --- a/domains/mechanisms/punctuated-equilibrium-emerges-from-darwinian-microevolution-without-additional-principles-because-extremal-dynamics-on-coupled-fitness-landscapes-self-organize-to-criticality.md +++ b/domains/mechanisms/punctuated-equilibrium-emerges-from-darwinian-microevolution-without-additional-principles-because-extremal-dynamics-on-coupled-fitness-landscapes-self-organize-to-criticality.md @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ type: claim domain: mechanisms description: "Long stasis interrupted by rapid change is not a separate evolutionary mechanism -- it's the emergent behavior of coupled adaptive systems that push each other to the edge of instability" -confidence: experimental +confidence: speculative source: "Bak and Sneppen (1993), Gould and Eldredge (1972), Kauffman 'Origins of Order' (1993), Bak 'How Nature Works' (1996)" created: 2026-04-21 secondary_domains: [grand-strategy, collective-intelligence]