extract: 2026-03-21-openevidence-12b-valuation-nct07199231-outcomes-gap

Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>

domains/health/OpenEvidence became the fastest-adopted clinical technology in history reaching 40 percent of US physicians daily within two years.md

@@ -31,6 +31,12 @@ OpenEvidence reached 1 million clinical consultations in a single 24-hour period
 
 ---
 
+### Additional Evidence (extend)
+*Source: [[2026-03-21-openevidence-12b-valuation-nct07199231-outcomes-gap]] | Added: 2026-03-21*
+
+OpenEvidence reached 30M+ monthly consultations by March 2026, including a historic milestone of 1 million consultations in a single day on March 10, 2026. The company projects 'more than 100 million Americans will be treated by a clinician using OpenEvidence this year.' This represents continued exponential growth from the 18M monthly consultations reported in December 2025.
+
+
 Relevant Notes:
 - [[centaur team performance depends on role complementarity not mere human-AI combination]] -- OpenEvidence is the clinical centaur: AI provides evidence synthesis, physician provides judgment
 - [[knowledge scaling bottlenecks kill revolutionary ideas before they reach critical mass]] -- OpenEvidence solved clinical knowledge scaling by making evidence retrieval instant

domains/health/healthcare AI funding follows a winner-take-most pattern with category leaders absorbing capital at unprecedented velocity while 35 percent of deals are flat or down rounds.md

@@ -33,6 +33,12 @@ OpenEvidence valuation trajectory demonstrates winner-take-most dynamics: $3.5B
 
 ---
 
+### Additional Evidence (confirm)
+*Source: [[2026-03-21-openevidence-12b-valuation-nct07199231-outcomes-gap]] | Added: 2026-03-21*
+
+OpenEvidence raised $250M at $12B valuation in January 2026, representing a 3.4x valuation increase in approximately 3 months (from $3.5B in October 2025). This is extraordinary velocity even by AI standards, with the company achieving $150M ARR (1,803% YoY growth from $7.9M in 2024) at ~90% gross margins. The winner-take-most pattern is evident as OE captures the clinical AI category.
+
+
 Relevant Notes:
 - [[OpenEvidence became the fastest-adopted clinical technology in history reaching 40 percent of US physicians daily within two years]] -- the category-defining company in healthcare AI clinical workflows, $12B valuation
 - [[ambient AI documentation reduces physician documentation burden by 73 percent but the relationship between automation and burnout is more complex than time savings alone]] -- Abridge at $5.3B represents the ambient documentation category winner

domains/health/medical LLM benchmark performance does not translate to clinical impact because physicians with and without AI access achieve similar diagnostic accuracy in randomized trials.md

@@ -25,6 +25,12 @@ OpenEvidence achieved 100% USMLE score (first AI in history) and is now deployed
 
 ---
 
+### Additional Evidence (confirm)
+*Source: [[2026-03-21-openevidence-12b-valuation-nct07199231-outcomes-gap]] | Added: 2026-03-21*
+
+OpenEvidence's medRxiv preprint (November 2025) showed 24% accuracy for relevant answers on complex open-ended clinical scenarios, despite achieving 100% on USMLE-type multiple choice questions. This 76-percentage-point gap between benchmark performance and open-ended clinical scenarios confirms that structured test performance does not predict real-world clinical utility.
+
+
 Relevant Notes:
 - [[human-in-the-loop clinical AI degrades to worse-than-AI-alone because physicians both de-skill from reliance and introduce errors when overriding correct outputs]] -- Stanford/Harvard study shows physician overrides degrade AI performance from 90% to 68%
 - [[centaur team performance depends on role complementarity not mere human-AI combination]] -- the chess centaur model does NOT generalize cleanly to clinical medicine; interaction design matters

inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/2026-03-21-openevidence-12b-valuation-nct07199231-outcomes-gap.json

@@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
+{
+  "rejected_claims": [
+    {
+      "filename": "openevidence-reinforces-existing-clinical-plans-rather-than-changing-decisions-suggesting-confidence-support-not-decision-improvement.md",
+      "issues": [
+        "missing_attribution_extractor",
+        "opsec_internal_deal_terms"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "filename": "nct07199231-is-first-prospective-safety-trial-for-major-clinical-ai-platform-establishing-outcomes-methodology-precedent.md",
+      "issues": [
+        "missing_attribution_extractor"
+      ]
+    }
+  ],
+  "validation_stats": {
+    "total": 2,
+    "kept": 0,
+    "fixed": 2,
+    "rejected": 2,
+    "fixes_applied": [
+      "openevidence-reinforces-existing-clinical-plans-rather-than-changing-decisions-suggesting-confidence-support-not-decision-improvement.md:set_created:2026-03-21",
+      "nct07199231-is-first-prospective-safety-trial-for-major-clinical-ai-platform-establishing-outcomes-methodology-precedent.md:set_created:2026-03-21"
+    ],
+    "rejections": [
+      "openevidence-reinforces-existing-clinical-plans-rather-than-changing-decisions-suggesting-confidence-support-not-decision-improvement.md:missing_attribution_extractor",
+      "openevidence-reinforces-existing-clinical-plans-rather-than-changing-decisions-suggesting-confidence-support-not-decision-improvement.md:opsec_internal_deal_terms",
+      "nct07199231-is-first-prospective-safety-trial-for-major-clinical-ai-platform-establishing-outcomes-methodology-precedent.md:missing_attribution_extractor"
+    ]
+  },
+  "model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
+  "date": "2026-03-21"
+}

inbox/queue/2026-03-21-openevidence-12b-valuation-nct07199231-outcomes-gap.md

@@ -7,10 +7,14 @@ date: 2026-01-21
 domain: health
 secondary_domains: [ai-alignment]
 format: article
-status: unprocessed
+status: enrichment
 priority: high
 tags: [openevidence, clinical-ai, outcomes-gap, deskilling, automation-bias, valuation, nct07199231, verification-bandwidth, medical-superintelligence]
 flagged_for_theseus: ["$12B clinical AI valuation with zero outcomes evidence — directly relevant to AI safety at scale; prospective trial NCT07199231 is the first real-world test of clinical AI safety methodology; 'reinforces plans' finding from PMC study could be a Goodhart's Law failure mode"]
+processed_by: vida
+processed_date: 2026-03-21
+enrichments_applied: ["OpenEvidence became the fastest-adopted clinical technology in history reaching 40 percent of US physicians daily within two years.md", "healthcare AI funding follows a winner-take-most pattern with category leaders absorbing capital at unprecedented velocity while 35 percent of deals are flat or down rounds.md", "medical LLM benchmark performance does not translate to clinical impact because physicians with and without AI access achieve similar diagnostic accuracy in randomized trials.md"]
+extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
 ---
 
 ## Content
@@ -96,3 +100,16 @@ PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[human-in-the-loop clinical AI degrades to worse-than-AI-al
 WHY ARCHIVED: The PMC finding ("reinforces plans") provides the first direct clinical evidence about OE's mechanism — and it partially CHALLENGES the deskilling KB claim by suggesting OE isn't changing decisions, just confirming them. This needs to be in the KB to update the clinical AI safety picture.
 
 EXTRACTION HINT: The extractor should focus on: (1) the PMC "reinforces plans" finding and its implications for the deskilling mechanism; (2) the $12B valuation vs. zero outcomes evidence asymmetry as a documented KB tension; (3) NCT07199231 as the methodology reference for future outcomes data.
+
+
+## Key Facts
+- OpenEvidence Series D: $250M at $12B valuation, January 21, 2026
+- OpenEvidence previous valuation: $3.5B (October 2025 Series C)
+- OpenEvidence total funding: ~$700M
+- OpenEvidence 2025 revenue: $150M ARR, up 1,803% YoY from $7.9M in 2024
+- OpenEvidence gross margins: ~90%
+- OpenEvidence usage: 18M monthly consultations (December 2025) → 30M+ monthly (March 2026)
+- OpenEvidence milestone: 1 million consultations in a single day (March 10, 2026)
+- OpenEvidence reach: 10,000+ hospitals, 40%+ of US physicians use daily
+- NCT07199231 status: Data collection underway as of March 2026, results unpublished
+- NCT07199231 design: 6-month prospective study with medicine/psychiatry residents at community health centers