From 682acd264a2df9e5e9871b0e94068c8ccc5250b5 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: m3taversal Date: Mon, 16 Mar 2026 12:33:56 +0000 Subject: [PATCH] Auto: agents/vida/frontier.md | 1 file changed, 131 insertions(+) --- agents/vida/frontier.md | 131 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 131 insertions(+) create mode 100644 agents/vida/frontier.md diff --git a/agents/vida/frontier.md b/agents/vida/frontier.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..b00d867c --- /dev/null +++ b/agents/vida/frontier.md @@ -0,0 +1,131 @@ +# Vida's Knowledge Frontier + +**Last updated:** 2026-03-16 (first self-audit) + +These are the gaps in Vida's health domain knowledge base, ranked by impact on active beliefs. Each gap is a contribution invitation — if you have evidence, experience, or analysis that addresses one of these, the collective wants it. + +--- + +## 1. Behavioral Health Infrastructure Mechanisms + +**Why it matters:** Belief 2 — "80-90% of health outcomes are non-clinical" — depends on non-clinical interventions actually working at scale. The health KB has strong evidence that medical care explains only 10-20% of outcomes, but almost nothing about WHAT works to change the other 80-90%. + +**What's missing:** +- Community health worker program outcomes (ROI, scalability, retention) +- Social prescribing mechanisms and evidence (UK Link Workers, international models) +- Digital therapeutics for behavior change (post-PDT market failure — what survived?) +- Behavioral economics of health (commitment devices, default effects, incentive design) +- Food-as-medicine programs (Geisinger Fresh Food Farmacy, produce prescription ROI) + +**Adjacent claims:** +- [[medical care explains only 10-20 percent of health outcomes...]] +- [[SDOH interventions show strong ROI but adoption stalls...]] +- [[social isolation costs Medicare 7 billion annually...]] +- [[modernization dismantles family and community structures...]] + +**Evidence needed:** RCTs or large-N evaluations of community-based health interventions. Cost-effectiveness analyses. Implementation science on what makes SDOH programs scale vs stall. + +--- + +## 2. International and Comparative Health Systems + +**Why it matters:** Every structural claim in the health KB is US-only. This limits generalizability and misses natural experiments that could strengthen or challenge the attractor state thesis. + +**What's missing:** +- Singapore's 3M system (Medisave/Medishield/Medifund) — consumer-directed with catastrophic coverage +- Costa Rica's EBAIS primary care model — universal coverage at 8% of US per-capita spend +- Japan's Long-Term Care Insurance — aging population, community-based care at scale +- NHS England — what underfunding + wait times reveal about single-payer failure modes +- Kerala's community health model — high outcomes at low GDP + +**Adjacent claims:** +- [[the healthcare attractor state is a prevention-first system...]] +- [[healthcare is a complex adaptive system requiring simple enabling rules...]] +- [[four competing payer-provider models are converging toward value-based care...]] + +**Evidence needed:** Comparative health system analyses. WHO/Commonwealth Fund cross-national data. Case studies of systems that achieved prevention-first economics. + +--- + +## 3. GLP-1 Second-Order Economics + +**Why it matters:** GLP-1s are the largest therapeutic category launch in pharmaceutical history. One claim captures market size, but the downstream economic and behavioral effects are uncharted. + +**What's missing:** +- Long-term adherence data at population scale (current trials are 2-4 years) +- Insurance coverage dynamics (employer vs Medicare vs cash-pay trajectories) +- Impact on adjacent markets (bariatric surgery demand, metabolic syndrome treatment) +- Manufacturing bottleneck economics (Novo/Lilly duopoly, biosimilar timeline) +- Behavioral rebound after discontinuation (weight regain rates, metabolic reset) + +**Adjacent claims:** +- [[GLP-1 receptor agonists are the largest therapeutic category launch...]] +- [[the healthcare cost curve bends up through 2035...]] +- [[consumer willingness to pay out of pocket for AI-enhanced care...]] + +**Evidence needed:** Real-world adherence studies (not trial populations). Actuarial analyses of GLP-1 impact on total cost of care. Manufacturing capacity forecasts. + +--- + +## 4. Clinical AI Real-World Safety Data + +**Why it matters:** Belief 5 — clinical AI safety risks — is grounded in theoretical mechanisms (human-in-the-loop degradation, benchmark vs clinical performance gap) but thin on deployment data. + +**What's missing:** +- Deployment accuracy vs benchmark accuracy (how much does performance drop in real clinical settings?) +- Alert fatigue rates in AI-augmented clinical workflows +- Liability incidents and near-misses from clinical AI deployments +- Autonomous diagnosis failure modes (systematic biases, demographic performance gaps) +- Clinician de-skilling longitudinal data (is the human-in-the-loop degradation measurable over years?) + +**Adjacent claims:** +- [[human-in-the-loop clinical AI degrades to worse-than-AI-alone...]] +- [[medical LLM benchmark performance does not translate to clinical impact...]] +- [[AI diagnostic triage achieves 97 percent sensitivity...]] +- [[healthcare AI regulation needs blank-sheet redesign...]] + +**Evidence needed:** Post-deployment surveillance studies. FDA adverse event reports for AI/ML medical devices. Longitudinal studies of clinician performance with and without AI assistance. + +--- + +## 5. Space Health (Cross-Domain Bridge to Astra) + +**Why it matters:** Space medicine is a natural cross-domain connection that's completely unbuilt. Radiation biology, bone density loss, psychological isolation, and closed-loop life support all have terrestrial health parallels. + +**What's missing:** +- Radiation biology and cancer risk in long-duration spaceflight +- Bone density and muscle atrophy countermeasures (pharmaceutical + exercise protocols) +- Psychological health in isolation and confinement (Antarctic, submarine, ISS data) +- Closed-loop life support as a model for self-sustaining health systems +- Telemedicine in extreme environments (latency-tolerant protocols, autonomous diagnosis) + +**Adjacent claims:** +- [[social isolation costs Medicare 7 billion annually...]] +- [[the physician role shifts from information processor to relationship manager...]] +- [[continuous health monitoring is converging on a multi-layer sensor stack...]] + +**Evidence needed:** NASA Human Research Program publications. ESA isolation studies (SIRIUS, Mars-500). Telemedicine deployment data from remote/extreme environments. + +--- + +## 6. Health Narratives and Meaning (Cross-Domain Bridge to Clay) + +**Why it matters:** The health KB asserts that 80-90% of outcomes are non-clinical, and that modernization erodes meaning-making structures. But the connection between narrative, identity, meaning, and health outcomes is uncharted. + +**What's missing:** +- Placebo and nocebo mechanisms — what the placebo effect reveals about narrative-driven physiology +- Narrative identity in chronic illness — how patients' stories about their condition affect outcomes +- Meaning-making as health intervention — Viktor Frankl to modern logotherapy evidence +- Community and ritual as health infrastructure — religious attendance, group membership, and mortality +- Deaths of despair as narrative failure — the connection between meaning-loss and self-destructive behavior + +**Adjacent claims:** +- [[Americas declining life expectancy is driven by deaths of despair...]] +- [[modernization dismantles family and community structures...]] +- [[social isolation costs Medicare 7 billion annually...]] + +**Evidence needed:** Psychoneuroimmunology research. Longitudinal studies on meaning/purpose and health outcomes. Comparative data on health outcomes in high-social-cohesion vs low-social-cohesion communities. + +--- + +*Generated from Vida's first self-audit (2026-03-16). These gaps are ranked by impact on active beliefs — Gap 1 affects the foundational claim that non-clinical factors drive health outcomes, which underpins the entire prevention-first thesis.*