extract: shapiro-churn-dynamics

Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>

inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/shapiro-churn-dynamics.json

@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
+{
+  "rejected_claims": [
+    {
+      "filename": "streaming-churn-may-be-permanently-uneconomic-because-maintenance-marketing-consumes-up-to-half-of-arpu.md",
+      "issues": [
+        "missing_attribution_extractor"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "filename": "resubscribe-rates-above-30-percent-indicate-churning-on-and-off-is-becoming-habitual-consumer-behavior-not-transitional-friction.md",
+      "issues": [
+        "missing_attribution_extractor"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "filename": "good-bundles-reduce-churn-through-transparent-discounts-while-bad-bundles-reduce-churn-through-forced-packaging.md",
+      "issues": [
+        "missing_attribution_extractor"
+      ]
+    }
+  ],
+  "validation_stats": {
+    "total": 3,
+    "kept": 0,
+    "fixed": 4,
+    "rejected": 3,
+    "fixes_applied": [
+      "streaming-churn-may-be-permanently-uneconomic-because-maintenance-marketing-consumes-up-to-half-of-arpu.md:set_created:2026-03-19",
+      "streaming-churn-may-be-permanently-uneconomic-because-maintenance-marketing-consumes-up-to-half-of-arpu.md:stripped_wiki_link:two-phase-disruption-where-distribution-moats-fall-first-and",
+      "resubscribe-rates-above-30-percent-indicate-churning-on-and-off-is-becoming-habitual-consumer-behavior-not-transitional-friction.md:set_created:2026-03-19",
+      "good-bundles-reduce-churn-through-transparent-discounts-while-bad-bundles-reduce-churn-through-forced-packaging.md:set_created:2026-03-19"
+    ],
+    "rejections": [
+      "streaming-churn-may-be-permanently-uneconomic-because-maintenance-marketing-consumes-up-to-half-of-arpu.md:missing_attribution_extractor",
+      "resubscribe-rates-above-30-percent-indicate-churning-on-and-off-is-becoming-habitual-consumer-behavior-not-transitional-friction.md:missing_attribution_extractor",
+      "good-bundles-reduce-churn-through-transparent-discounts-while-bad-bundles-reduce-churn-through-forced-packaging.md:missing_attribution_extractor"
+    ]
+  },
+  "model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
+  "date": "2026-03-19"
+}

inbox/queue/shapiro-churn-dynamics.md

@@ -7,9 +7,13 @@ date_published: "2023-05-01"
 date_archived: "2025-04-23"
 archived_by: "clay"
 domain: "entertainment"
-status: unprocessed
+status: null-result
 claims_extracted:
   - "streaming churn may be permanently uneconomic because maintenance marketing consumes up to half of average revenue per user"
+processed_by: leo
+processed_date: 2026-03-19
+extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
+extraction_notes: "LLM returned 3 claims, 3 rejected by validator"
 ---
 # 4/23/25, 7:38 PM To Everything, Churn, Churn, Churn - by Doug Shapiro
 
@@ -800,3 +804,14 @@ Next →
 [https://archive.ph/dP22g](https://archive.ph/dP22g)
 
 18/19
+
+
+## Key Facts
+- Netflix's U.S. churn rate was 4.9% monthly in 2011, declined to 1.9-2.0% in 2020-2021, then increased to 3.3% in 2022
+- Antenna estimates Netflix's U.S. SAC at approximately $40 per gross addition through 9 months of 2022
+- Netflix's average customer lifetime at 3.3% monthly churn is 30.3 months
+- Over 40% of U.S. Disney+ subscribers opt for the Disney Bundle as of Q4 2022
+- Showtime had 7.4% monthly churn, Peacock 7.1%, Paramount+ 6.4%, HBO Max 5.9% in 9 months ended Sept 2022
+- About 50% of subscribers who signed up around Hamilton (Disney+) and WW84 (HBO Max) canceled within 6 months
+- The proportion of 'serial churners' (canceled 3+ services in 2 years) increased from ~6% in 2019 to ~16% in 2022
+- Spotify's monthly churn rate is 3.9%, SiriusXM 2.3%, Verizon Wireless 1.0%, DISH 1.6%, Peloton 1.1%