diff --git a/agents/vida/frontier.md b/agents/vida/frontier.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..680046ae --- /dev/null +++ b/agents/vida/frontier.md @@ -0,0 +1,131 @@ +# Vida's Knowledge Frontier + +**Last updated:** 2026-03-16 (first self-audit) + +These are the gaps in Vida's health domain knowledge base, ranked by impact on active beliefs. Each gap is a contribution invitation — if you have evidence, experience, or analysis that addresses one of these, the collective wants it. + +--- + +## 1. Behavioral Health Infrastructure Mechanisms + +**Why it matters:** Belief 2 — "80-90% of health outcomes are non-clinical" — depends on non-clinical interventions actually working at scale. The health KB has strong evidence that medical care explains only 10-20% of outcomes, but almost nothing about WHAT works to change the other 80-90%. + +**What's missing:** +- Community health worker program outcomes (ROI, scalability, retention) +- Social prescribing mechanisms and evidence (UK Link Workers, international models) +- Digital therapeutics for behavior change (post-PDT market failure — what survived?) +- Behavioral economics of health (commitment devices, default effects, incentive design) +- Food-as-medicine programs (Geisinger Fresh Food Farmacy, produce prescription ROI) + +**Adjacent claims:** +- medical care explains only 10-20 percent of health outcomes... +- SDOH interventions show strong ROI but adoption stalls... +- social isolation costs Medicare 7 billion annually... +- modernization dismantles family and community structures... + +**Evidence needed:** RCTs or large-N evaluations of community-based health interventions. Cost-effectiveness analyses. Implementation science on what makes SDOH programs scale vs stall. + +--- + +## 2. International and Comparative Health Systems + +**Why it matters:** Every structural claim in the health KB is US-only. This limits generalizability and misses natural experiments that could strengthen or challenge the attractor state thesis. + +**What's missing:** +- Singapore's 3M system (Medisave/Medishield/Medifund) — consumer-directed with catastrophic coverage +- Costa Rica's EBAIS primary care model — universal coverage at 8% of US per-capita spend +- Japan's Long-Term Care Insurance — aging population, community-based care at scale +- NHS England — what underfunding + wait times reveal about single-payer failure modes +- Kerala's community health model — high outcomes at low GDP + +**Adjacent claims:** +- the healthcare attractor state is a prevention-first system... +- healthcare is a complex adaptive system requiring simple enabling rules... +- four competing payer-provider models are converging toward value-based care... + +**Evidence needed:** Comparative health system analyses. WHO/Commonwealth Fund cross-national data. Case studies of systems that achieved prevention-first economics. + +--- + +## 3. GLP-1 Second-Order Economics + +**Why it matters:** GLP-1s are the largest therapeutic category launch in pharmaceutical history. One claim captures market size, but the downstream economic and behavioral effects are uncharted. + +**What's missing:** +- Long-term adherence data at population scale (current trials are 2-4 years) +- Insurance coverage dynamics (employer vs Medicare vs cash-pay trajectories) +- Impact on adjacent markets (bariatric surgery demand, metabolic syndrome treatment) +- Manufacturing bottleneck economics (Novo/Lilly duopoly, biosimilar timeline) +- Behavioral rebound after discontinuation (weight regain rates, metabolic reset) + +**Adjacent claims:** +- GLP-1 receptor agonists are the largest therapeutic category launch... +- the healthcare cost curve bends up through 2035... +- consumer willingness to pay out of pocket for AI-enhanced care... + +**Evidence needed:** Real-world adherence studies (not trial populations). Actuarial analyses of GLP-1 impact on total cost of care. Manufacturing capacity forecasts. + +--- + +## 4. Clinical AI Real-World Safety Data + +**Why it matters:** Belief 5 — clinical AI safety risks — is grounded in theoretical mechanisms (human-in-the-loop degradation, benchmark vs clinical performance gap) but thin on deployment data. + +**What's missing:** +- Deployment accuracy vs benchmark accuracy (how much does performance drop in real clinical settings?) +- Alert fatigue rates in AI-augmented clinical workflows +- Liability incidents and near-misses from clinical AI deployments +- Autonomous diagnosis failure modes (systematic biases, demographic performance gaps) +- Clinician de-skilling longitudinal data (is the human-in-the-loop degradation measurable over years?) + +**Adjacent claims:** +- human-in-the-loop clinical AI degrades to worse-than-AI-alone... +- medical LLM benchmark performance does not translate to clinical impact... +- AI diagnostic triage achieves 97 percent sensitivity... +- healthcare AI regulation needs blank-sheet redesign... + +**Evidence needed:** Post-deployment surveillance studies. FDA adverse event reports for AI/ML medical devices. Longitudinal studies of clinician performance with and without AI assistance. + +--- + +## 5. Space Health (Cross-Domain Bridge to Astra) + +**Why it matters:** Space medicine is a natural cross-domain connection that's completely unbuilt. Radiation biology, bone density loss, psychological isolation, and closed-loop life support all have terrestrial health parallels. + +**What's missing:** +- Radiation biology and cancer risk in long-duration spaceflight +- Bone density and muscle atrophy countermeasures (pharmaceutical + exercise protocols) +- Psychological health in isolation and confinement (Antarctic, submarine, ISS data) +- Closed-loop life support as a model for self-sustaining health systems +- Telemedicine in extreme environments (latency-tolerant protocols, autonomous diagnosis) + +**Adjacent claims:** +- social isolation costs Medicare 7 billion annually... +- the physician role shifts from information processor to relationship manager... +- continuous health monitoring is converging on a multi-layer sensor stack... + +**Evidence needed:** NASA Human Research Program publications. ESA isolation studies (SIRIUS, Mars-500). Telemedicine deployment data from remote/extreme environments. + +--- + +## 6. Health Narratives and Meaning (Cross-Domain Bridge to Clay) + +**Why it matters:** The health KB asserts that 80-90% of outcomes are non-clinical, and that modernization erodes meaning-making structures. But the connection between narrative, identity, meaning, and health outcomes is uncharted. + +**What's missing:** +- Placebo and nocebo mechanisms — what the placebo effect reveals about narrative-driven physiology +- Narrative identity in chronic illness — how patients' stories about their condition affect outcomes +- Meaning-making as health intervention — Viktor Frankl to modern logotherapy evidence +- Community and ritual as health infrastructure — religious attendance, group membership, and mortality +- Deaths of despair as narrative failure — the connection between meaning-loss and self-destructive behavior + +**Adjacent claims:** +- Americas declining life expectancy is driven by deaths of despair... +- modernization dismantles family and community structures... +- social isolation costs Medicare 7 billion annually... + +**Evidence needed:** Psychoneuroimmunology research. Longitudinal studies on meaning/purpose and health outcomes. Comparative data on health outcomes in high-social-cohesion vs low-social-cohesion communities. + +--- + +*Generated from Vida's first self-audit (2026-03-16). These gaps are ranked by impact on active beliefs — Gap 1 affects the foundational claim that non-clinical factors drive health outcomes, which underpins the entire prevention-first thesis.* diff --git a/agents/vida/self-audit-2026-03-16.md b/agents/vida/self-audit-2026-03-16.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..0ff91ebf --- /dev/null +++ b/agents/vida/self-audit-2026-03-16.md @@ -0,0 +1,138 @@ +# Self-Audit Report: Vida +**Date:** 2026-03-16 +**Domain:** health +**Claims audited:** 44 +**Overall status:** WARNING + +--- + +## Structural Findings + +### Schema Compliance: PASS +- 44/44 files have all required frontmatter (type, domain, description, confidence, source, created) +- 44/44 descriptions add meaningful context beyond the title +- 3 files use non-standard extended fields (last_evaluated, depends_on, challenged_by, secondary_domains, tradition) — these are useful extensions but should be documented in schemas/claim.md if adopted collectively + +### Orphan Ratio: CRITICAL — 74% (threshold: 15%) +- 35 of 47 health claims have zero incoming wiki links from other claims or agent files +- All 12 "connected" claims receive links only from inbox/archive source files, not from the knowledge graph +- **This means the health domain is structurally isolated.** Claims link out to each other internally, but no other domain or agent file links INTO health claims. + +**Classification of orphans:** +- 15 AI/technology claims — should connect to ai-alignment domain +- 8 business/market claims — should connect to internet-finance, teleological-economics +- 8 policy/structural claims — should connect to mechanisms, living-capital +- 4 foundational claims — should connect to critical-systems, cultural-dynamics + +**Root cause:** Extraction-heavy, integration-light. Claims were batch-extracted (22 on Feb 17 alone) without a corresponding integration pass to embed them in the cross-domain graph. + +### Link Health: PASS +- No broken wiki links detected in claim bodies +- All `wiki links` resolve to existing files + +### Staleness: PASS (with caveat) +- All claims created within the last 30 days (domain is new) +- However, 22/44 claims cite evidence from a single source batch (Bessemer State of Health AI 2026). Source diversity is healthy at the domain level but thin at the claim level. + +### Duplicate Detection: PASS +- No semantic duplicates found +- Two near-pairs worth monitoring: + - "AI diagnostic triage achieves 97% sensitivity..." and "medical LLM benchmark performance does not translate to clinical impact..." — not duplicates but their tension should be explicit + - "PACE demonstrates integrated care averts institutionalization..." and "PACE restructures costs from acute to chronic..." — complementary, not duplicates + +--- + +## Epistemic Findings + +### Unacknowledged Contradictions: 3 (HIGH PRIORITY) + +**1. Prevention Economics Paradox** +- Claim: "the healthcare attractor state...profits from health rather than sickness" (likely) +- Claim: "PACE restructures costs from acute to chronic spending WITHOUT REDUCING TOTAL EXPENDITURE" (likely) +- PACE is the closest real-world approximation of the attractor state (100% capitation, fully integrated, community-based). It shows quality/outcome improvement but cost-neutral economics. The attractor state thesis assumes prevention is profitable. PACE says it isn't — the value is clinical and social, not financial. +- **The attractor claim's body addresses this briefly but the tension is buried, not explicit in either claim's frontmatter.** + +**2. Jevons Paradox vs AI-Enabled Prevention** +- Claim: "healthcare AI creates a Jevons paradox because adding capacity to sick care induces more demand" (likely) +- Claim: "the healthcare attractor state" relies on "AI-augmented care delivery" for prevention +- The Jevons claim asserts ALL healthcare AI optimizes sick care. The attractor state assumes AI can optimize prevention. Neither acknowledges the other. + +**3. Cost Curve vs Attractor State Timeline** +- Claim: "the healthcare cost curve bends UP through 2035" (likely) +- Claim: "GLP-1s...net cost impact inflationary through 2035" (likely) +- Claim: attractor state assumes prevention profitability +- If costs are structurally inflationary through 2035, the prevention-first attractor can't achieve financial sustainability during the transition period. This timeline constraint isn't acknowledged. + +### Confidence Miscalibrations: 3 + +**Overconfident (should downgrade):** +1. "Big Food companies engineer addictive products by hacking evolutionary reward pathways" — rated `proven`, should be `likely`. The business practices are evidenced but "intentional hacking" of reward pathways is interpretation, not empirically proven via RCT. +2. "AI scribes reached 92% provider adoption" — rated `proven`, should be `likely`. The 92% figure is "deploying, implementing, or piloting" (Bessemer), not proven adoption. The causal "because" clause is inferred. +3. "CMS 2027 chart review exclusion targets vertical integration profit arbitrage" — rated `proven`, should be `likely`. CMS intent is inferred from policy mechanics, not explicitly documented. + +**Underconfident (could upgrade):** +1. "consumer willingness to pay out of pocket for AI-enhanced care" — rated `likely`, could be `proven`. RadNet study (N=747,604) showing 36% choosing $40 AI premium is large-scale empirical market behavior data. + +### Belief Grounding: WARNING +- Belief 1 ("healthspan is the binding constraint") — well-grounded in 7+ claims +- Belief 2 ("80-90% of health outcomes are non-clinical") — grounded in `medical care explains 10-20%` (proven) but THIN on what actually works to change behavior. Only 1 claim touches SDOH interventions, 1 on social isolation. No claims on community health workers, social prescribing mechanisms, or behavioral economics of health. +- Belief 3 ("structural misalignment") — well-grounded in CMS, payvidor, VBC claims +- Belief 4 ("atoms-to-bits") — grounded in wearables + Function Health claims +- Belief 5 ("clinical AI + safety risks") — grounded in human-in-the-loop degradation, benchmark vs clinical impact. But thin on real-world deployment safety data. + +### Scope Issues: 3 + +1. "AI-first screening viable for ALL imaging and pathology" — evidence covers 14 CT conditions and radiology, not all imaging/pathology modalities. Universal is unwarranted. +2. "the physician role SHIFTS from information processor to relationship manager" — stated as completed fact; evidence shows directional trend, not completed transformation. +3. "the healthcare attractor state...PROFITS from health" — financial profitability language is stronger than PACE evidence supports. "Incentivizes health" would be more accurate. + +--- + +## Knowledge Gaps (ranked by impact on beliefs) + +1. **Behavioral health infrastructure mechanisms** — Belief 2 depends on non-clinical interventions working at scale. Almost no claims about WHAT works: community health worker programs, social prescribing, digital therapeutics for behavior change. This is the single biggest gap. + +2. **International/comparative health systems** — Zero non-US claims. Singapore 3M, Costa Rica EBAIS, Japan LTCI, NHS England are all in the archive but unprocessed. Limits the generalizability of every structural claim. + +3. **GLP-1 second-order economics** — One claim on market size. Nothing on: adherence at scale, insurance coverage dynamics, impact on bariatric surgery demand, manufacturing bottlenecks, Novo/Lilly duopoly dynamics. + +4. **Clinical AI real-world safety data** — Belief 5 claims safety risks but evidence is thin. Need: deployment accuracy vs benchmark, alert fatigue rates, liability incidents, autonomous diagnosis failure modes. + +5. **Space health** — Zero claims. Cross-domain bridge to Astra is completely unbuilt. Radiation biology, bone density, psychological isolation — all relevant to both space medicine and terrestrial health. + +6. **Health narratives and meaning** — Cross-domain bridge to Clay is unbuilt. Placebo mechanisms, narrative identity in chronic illness, meaning-making as health intervention. + +--- + +## Cross-Domain Health + +- **Internal linkage:** Dense — most health claims link to 2-5 other health claims +- **Cross-domain linkage ratio:** ~5% (CRITICAL — threshold is 15%) +- **Missing connections:** + - health ↔ ai-alignment: 15 AI-related health claims, zero links to Theseus's domain + - health ↔ internet-finance: VBC/CMS/GLP-1 economics claims, zero links to Rio's domain + - health ↔ critical-systems: "healthcare is a complex adaptive system" claim, zero links to foundations/critical-systems/ + - health ↔ cultural-dynamics: deaths of despair, modernization claims, zero links to foundations/cultural-dynamics/ + - health ↔ space-development: zero claims, zero links + +--- + +## Recommended Actions (prioritized) + +### Critical +1. **Resolve prevention economics contradiction** — Add `challenged_by` to attractor state claim pointing to PACE cost evidence. Consider new claim: "prevention-first care models improve quality without reducing total costs during transition, making the financial case dependent on regulatory and payment reform rather than inherent efficiency" +2. **Address Jevons-prevention tension** — Either scope the Jevons claim ("AI applied to SICK CARE creates Jevons paradox") or explain the mechanism by which prevention-oriented AI avoids the paradox +3. **Integration pass** — Batch PR adding incoming wiki links from core/, foundations/, and other domains/ to the 35 orphan claims. This is the highest-impact structural fix. + +### High +4. **Downgrade 3 confidence levels** — Big Food (proven→likely), AI scribes (proven→likely), CMS chart review (proven→likely) +5. **Scope 3 universals** — AI diagnostic triage ("CT and radiology" not "all"), physician role ("shifting toward" not "shifts"), attractor state ("incentivizes" not "profits from") +6. **Upgrade 1 confidence level** — Consumer willingness to pay (likely→proven) + +### Medium +7. **Fill Belief 2 gap** — Extract behavioral health infrastructure claims from existing archive sources +8. **Build cross-domain links** — Start with health↔ai-alignment (15 natural connection points) and health↔critical-systems (complex adaptive system claim) + +--- + +*This report was generated using the self-audit skill (skills/self-audit.md). First audit of the health domain.* diff --git a/skills/self-audit.md b/skills/self-audit.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..8c13458a --- /dev/null +++ b/skills/self-audit.md @@ -0,0 +1,150 @@ +# Skill: Self-Audit + +Periodic self-examination of an agent's knowledge base for inconsistencies, weaknesses, and drift. Every agent runs this on their own domain. + +## When to Use + +- Every 50 claims added to your domain (condition-based trigger) +- Monthly if claim volume is low +- After a major belief update (cascade from upstream claim changes) +- When preparing to publish positions (highest-stakes output deserves freshest audit) +- On request from Leo or Cory + +## Principle: Detection, Not Remediation + +Self-audit is read-only. You detect problems and report them. You do NOT auto-fix. + +Fixes go through the standard PR process. This prevents the over-automation failure mode where silent corrections introduce new errors. The audit produces a report; the report drives PRs. + +## Process + +### Phase 1: Structural Scan (deterministic, automated) + +Run these checks on all claims in your domain (`domains/{your-domain}/`): + +**1. Schema compliance** +- Every file has required frontmatter: `type`, `domain`, `description`, `confidence`, `source`, `created` +- `confidence` is one of: `proven`, `likely`, `experimental`, `speculative` +- `domain` matches the folder it lives in +- Description adds information beyond the title (not a restatement) + +**2. Orphan detection** +- Build incoming-link index: for each claim, which other claims link TO it via `title` +- Claims with 0 incoming links and created > 7 days ago are orphans +- Classify: "leaf contributor" (has outgoing links, no incoming) vs "truly isolated" (no links either direction) + +**3. Link health** +- Every `wiki link` in the body should resolve to an actual file +- Dangling links = either the target was renamed/deleted, or the link is aspirational +- Report: list of broken links with the file they appear in + +**4. Staleness check** +- Claims older than 180 days in fast-moving domains (health, ai-alignment, internet-finance) +- Claims older than 365 days in slower domains (cultural-dynamics, critical-systems) +- Cross-reference with git log: a claim file modified recently (enriched, updated) is not stale even if `created` is old + +**5. Duplicate detection** +- Compare claim titles pairwise for semantic similarity +- Flag pairs where titles assert nearly the same thing with different wording +- This catches extraction drift — the same insight extracted from different sources as separate claims + +### Phase 2: Epistemic Self-Audit (LLM-assisted, requires judgment) + +Load your claims in batches (context window management — don't load all 50+ at once). + +**6. Contradiction scan** +- Load claims in groups of 15-20 +- For each group, ask: "Do any of these claims contradict or tension with each other without acknowledging it?" +- Tensions are fine if explicit (`challenged_by` field, or acknowledged in the body). UNACKNOWLEDGED tensions are the bug. +- Cross-check: load claims that share wiki-link targets — these are most likely to have hidden tensions + +**7. Confidence calibration audit** +- For each `proven` claim: does the body contain empirical evidence (RCTs, meta-analyses, large-N studies, mathematical proofs)? If not, it's overconfident. +- For each `speculative` claim: does the body actually contain substantial evidence that might warrant upgrading to `experimental`? +- For `likely` claims: is there counter-evidence elsewhere in the KB? If so, is it acknowledged? + +**8. Belief grounding check** +- Read `agents/{your-name}/beliefs.md` +- For each belief, verify the `depends_on` claims: + - Do they still exist? (not deleted or archived) + - Has their confidence changed since the belief was last evaluated? + - Have any been challenged with substantive counter-evidence? +- Flag beliefs where supporting claims have shifted but the belief hasn't been re-evaluated + +**9. Gap identification** +- Map your claims by subtopic. Where do you have single claims that should be clusters? +- Check adjacent domains: what claims in other domains reference your domain but have no corresponding claim in your territory? +- Check your beliefs: which beliefs have the thinnest evidence base (fewest supporting claims)? +- Rank gaps by impact: gaps that affect active positions > gaps that affect beliefs > gaps in coverage + +**10. Cross-domain connection audit** +- What percentage of your claims link to claims in other domains? +- Healthy range: 15-30%. Below 15% = siloed. Above 30% = possibly under-grounded in own domain. +- Which other domains SHOULD you connect to but don't? (Based on your beliefs and identity) + +### Phase 3: Report + +Produce a structured report. Format: + +```markdown +# Self-Audit Report: {Agent Name} +**Date:** YYYY-MM-DD +**Domain:** {domain} +**Claims audited:** N +**Overall status:** healthy | warning | critical + +## Structural Findings +- Schema violations: N (list) +- Orphans: N (list with classification) +- Broken links: N (list) +- Stale claims: N (list with recommended action) +- Potential duplicates: N (list pairs) + +## Epistemic Findings +- Unacknowledged contradictions: N (list claim pairs with the tension) +- Confidence miscalibrations: N (list with recommended adjustment) +- Belief grounding issues: N (list beliefs with shifted dependencies) + +## Knowledge Gaps (ranked by impact) +1. {Gap description} — affects belief/position X +2. {Gap description} — affects belief/position Y + +## Cross-Domain Health +- Linkage ratio: X% +- Missing connections: {domains that should be linked but aren't} + +## Recommended Actions (prioritized) +1. {Most impactful fix — usually an unacknowledged contradiction or belief grounding issue} +2. {Second priority} +3. ... +``` + +### Phase 4: Act on Findings + +- **Contradictions and miscalibrations** → create PRs to fix (highest priority) +- **Orphans** → add incoming links from related claims (batch into one PR) +- **Gaps** → publish as frontiers in `agents/{your-name}/frontier.md` (invites contribution) +- **Stale claims** → research whether the landscape has changed, update or challenge +- **Belief grounding issues** → trigger belief re-evaluation (may cascade to positions) + +## What Self-Audit Does NOT Do + +- Does not evaluate whether claims are TRUE (that's the evaluate skill + domain expertise) +- Does not modify any files (detection only) +- Does not audit other agents' domains (each agent audits their own) +- Does not replace Leo's cross-domain evaluation (self-audit is inward-facing) + +## Relationship to Other Skills + +- **evaluate.md** — evaluates incoming claims. Self-audit evaluates existing claims. +- **cascade.md** — propagates changes through the dependency chain. Self-audit identifies WHERE cascades are needed. +- **learn-cycle.md** — processes new information. Self-audit reviews accumulated knowledge. +- **synthesize.md** — creates cross-domain connections. Self-audit measures whether enough connections exist. + +## Frequency Guidelines + +| Domain velocity | Audit trigger | Expected duration | +|----------------|--------------|-------------------| +| Fast (health, AI, finance) | Every 50 claims or monthly | 1-2 hours | +| Medium (entertainment, space) | Every 50 claims or quarterly | 1 hour | +| Slow (cultural dynamics, critical systems) | Every 50 claims or biannually | 45 min |