extract: 2026-03-21-metadao-meta036-hanson-futarchy-research

Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>

decisions/internet-finance/metadao-meta036-hanson-futarchy-research.md

@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@
+# META-036: Fund Futarchy Applications Research — Robin Hanson at George Mason University
+
+**Status:** Active (50% likelihood as of 2026-03-21)  
+**Amount:** $80,007 USDC  
+**Duration:** 6 months  
+**Proposed by:** m3taversal  
+**Market volume:** $42.16K  
+
+## Overview
+
+First academic research proposal to experimentally validate futarchy decision-market governance. MetaDAO treasury would fund George Mason University study led by Dr. Robin Hanson (inventor of futarchy) and co-investigator Dr. Daniel Houser.
+
+## Research Scope
+
+- 500 student participants ($50 each) in controlled decision-making experiments
+- IRB-reviewed protocols for human subjects research
+- Graduate research assistant for full academic year + summer
+- First rigorous experimental evidence on information-aggregation efficiency of futarchy governance
+
+## Budget Breakdown
+
+- Hanson summer salary: ~$30K
+- Houser co-investigator: ~$6K
+- Graduate Research Assistant: ~$19K
+- Participant payments: $25K
+- **Total:** $80,007 USDC
+
+## Disbursement Structure
+
+50/50 split:
+1. 50% on execution
+2. 50% on interim report delivery
+
+## Market Data (2026-03-21)
+
+- **Likelihood:** 50%
+- **Volume:** $42.16K
+- **Pass token:** $3.4590 (+0.52%)
+- **Fail token:** $3.3242 (-3.40%)
+- **Time remaining:** ~2 days
+
+## Significance
+
+This represents the first formal academic validation effort for futarchy governance mechanisms. Robin Hanson invented futarchy in 2000, but production implementations (MetaDAO, others) have emerged without rigorous experimental evidence. The study would provide controlled evidence on whether conditional markets actually aggregate information more efficiently than traditional governance.
+
+## Links
+
+- [Proposal on MetaDAO](https://www.metadao.fi/projects/metadao/proposal/Dt6QxTtaPz87oEK4m95ztP36wZCXA9LGLrJf1sDYAwxi)
+- [MetaDAO announcement tweet](https://twitter.com/MetaDAOProject/status/XXXXX)

inbox/queue/2026-03-21-metadao-meta036-hanson-futarchy-research.md

@@ -15,6 +15,10 @@ processed_date: 2026-03-21
 claims_extracted: []
 enrichments: []
 tags: [metadao, robin-hanson, futarchy, academic-research, gmu, decision-market]
+processed_by: rio
+processed_date: 2026-03-25
+extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
+extraction_notes: "LLM returned 0 claims, 0 rejected by validator"
 ---
 
 ## Content
@@ -50,3 +54,12 @@ MetaDAO proposal META-036 requests $80,007 USDC to fund six-month academic resea
 ## Curator Notes
 PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[metadao-fund-futarchy-research-hanson-gmu]]
 WHY ARCHIVED: Live decision market for first academic validation of futarchy mechanism. Decision record created.
+
+
+## Key Facts
+- META-036 requests $80,007 USDC from MetaDAO treasury
+- Study would involve 500 student participants at $50 each
+- Hanson summer salary budgeted at ~$30K
+- Market likelihood at 50% with $42.16K volume as of 2026-03-21
+- Pass token at $3.4590 (+0.52%), Fail token at $3.3242 (-3.40%)
+- Proposal has ~2 days remaining as of source date