Session capture: 20260518-151619
4
agents/rio/posts/figures/.gitignore
vendored
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
|
|||
venv/
|
||||
__pycache__/
|
||||
data/bea_landing.html
|
||||
data/bea_test.json
|
||||
|
After Width: | Height: | Size: 153 KiB |
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,111 @@
|
|||
"""
|
||||
Chart 1: Finance share of US corporate profits, 1947-2025
|
||||
|
||||
Source data: FRED
|
||||
- BOGZ1FA796060005A: Domestic Financial Sectors; Corporate Profits Before Tax
|
||||
Excluding IVA and CCAdj (annual, millions of dollars)
|
||||
- A053RC1A027NBEA: Corporate profits before tax (without IVA and CCAdj)
|
||||
(annual, billions of dollars)
|
||||
|
||||
Story: rose from ~7-8% in 1950 to a peak of 34.8% in 2002, stabilized at
|
||||
20-25% since. Not the 40-44% figure sometimes cited (that uses a different
|
||||
BEA NIPA table that includes Federal Reserve banks).
|
||||
"""
|
||||
|
||||
from pathlib import Path
|
||||
import csv
|
||||
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
||||
import matplotlib.ticker as mtick
|
||||
|
||||
HERE = Path(__file__).parent
|
||||
DATA = HERE / "data"
|
||||
OUT = HERE / "chart_01_finance_share_corporate_profits.png"
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
def load_csv(name, value_in_millions=False):
|
||||
"""Load a FRED CSV. Returns dict[year_str -> float in billions]."""
|
||||
out = {}
|
||||
with open(DATA / name) as f:
|
||||
r = csv.reader(f)
|
||||
next(r) # header
|
||||
for row in r:
|
||||
try:
|
||||
v = float(row[1])
|
||||
if value_in_millions:
|
||||
v = v / 1000.0
|
||||
out[row[0][:4]] = v
|
||||
except ValueError:
|
||||
continue
|
||||
return out
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
fin = load_csv("finance_corp_profits_annual.csv", value_in_millions=True)
|
||||
tot = load_csv("total_corp_profits_annual.csv")
|
||||
|
||||
years = sorted(set(fin) & set(tot))
|
||||
years = [y for y in years if int(y) >= 1947]
|
||||
|
||||
share = [100 * fin[y] / tot[y] for y in years]
|
||||
x = [int(y) for y in years]
|
||||
|
||||
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(10, 5.5), dpi=200)
|
||||
ax.plot(x, share, color="#1f4e79", linewidth=2.0)
|
||||
ax.fill_between(x, share, alpha=0.12, color="#1f4e79")
|
||||
|
||||
# Annotate peaks
|
||||
peak_idx = share.index(max(share))
|
||||
ax.annotate(
|
||||
f"Peak: {share[peak_idx]:.1f}% ({x[peak_idx]})",
|
||||
xy=(x[peak_idx], share[peak_idx]),
|
||||
xytext=(x[peak_idx] - 18, share[peak_idx] + 3),
|
||||
fontsize=9,
|
||||
arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle="->", color="#666", lw=0.8),
|
||||
)
|
||||
|
||||
# Annotate 1950 baseline
|
||||
idx_1950 = x.index(1950)
|
||||
ax.annotate(
|
||||
f"1950: {share[idx_1950]:.1f}%",
|
||||
xy=(1950, share[idx_1950]),
|
||||
xytext=(1952, share[idx_1950] + 4),
|
||||
fontsize=9,
|
||||
arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle="->", color="#666", lw=0.8),
|
||||
)
|
||||
|
||||
# Annotate 2025 current
|
||||
idx_last = -1
|
||||
ax.annotate(
|
||||
f"2025: {share[idx_last]:.1f}%",
|
||||
xy=(x[idx_last], share[idx_last]),
|
||||
xytext=(x[idx_last] - 14, share[idx_last] + 4),
|
||||
fontsize=9,
|
||||
arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle="->", color="#666", lw=0.8),
|
||||
)
|
||||
|
||||
ax.set_title(
|
||||
"Finance share of US corporate profits, 1947–2025",
|
||||
fontsize=13,
|
||||
fontweight="bold",
|
||||
pad=14,
|
||||
)
|
||||
ax.set_xlabel("Year", fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax.set_ylabel("Domestic financial sector profits as % of total", fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax.yaxis.set_major_formatter(mtick.PercentFormatter(decimals=0))
|
||||
ax.set_ylim(0, max(share) * 1.18)
|
||||
ax.grid(alpha=0.25)
|
||||
ax.spines["top"].set_visible(False)
|
||||
ax.spines["right"].set_visible(False)
|
||||
|
||||
source_text = (
|
||||
"Source: FRED, BOGZ1FA796060005A ÷ A053RC1A027NBEA (BEA NIPA, annual). "
|
||||
"Pre-tax profits, IVA/CCAdj excluded. Computed by Rio for the Teleo Codex, May 2026."
|
||||
)
|
||||
fig.text(0.02, 0.01, source_text, fontsize=7, color="#555")
|
||||
|
||||
plt.tight_layout(rect=[0, 0.025, 1, 1])
|
||||
plt.savefig(OUT, dpi=200, bbox_inches="tight")
|
||||
print(f"wrote {OUT}")
|
||||
print(f"data span: {x[0]}–{x[-1]} ({len(x)} years)")
|
||||
print(f"min: {min(share):.1f}% in {x[share.index(min(share))]}")
|
||||
print(f"max: {max(share):.1f}% in {x[share.index(max(share))]}")
|
||||
print(f"latest ({x[-1]}): {share[-1]:.1f}%")
|
||||
BIN
agents/rio/posts/figures/chart_02_finance_share_gdp.png
Normal file
|
After Width: | Height: | Size: 159 KiB |
98
agents/rio/posts/figures/chart_02_finance_share_gdp.py
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,98 @@
|
|||
"""
|
||||
Chart 2: Finance & insurance value added as % of US GDP, 1997-2025
|
||||
|
||||
Source: BEA Industry Economic Accounts, Table 1.10 (TVA110-A annual)
|
||||
URL: https://apps.bea.gov/industry/Release/XLS/GDPxInd/ValueAdded.xlsx
|
||||
Published April 9, 2026. Annual frequency. NAICS-based.
|
||||
|
||||
Key story: NO COMPRESSION. Finance and insurance share of GDP went from
|
||||
6.7% (1997) to 7.9% (2025), oscillating between a 5.9% GFC trough (2008)
|
||||
and an 8.0% peak (2020). Every prior tech wave was supposed to compress this.
|
||||
It didn't.
|
||||
|
||||
Data gap: pre-1997 data uses SIC industry codes (not NAICS) and lives in
|
||||
BEA historical archives. The Greenwood/Ialenti/Scharfstein 2025 Annual
|
||||
Review paper and Philippon's 2015 AER paper provide the longer-run series
|
||||
back to 1880. We don't reproduce their data here — we cite it in caption.
|
||||
"""
|
||||
|
||||
from pathlib import Path
|
||||
import csv
|
||||
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
||||
import matplotlib.ticker as mtick
|
||||
|
||||
HERE = Path(__file__).parent
|
||||
OUT = HERE / "chart_02_finance_share_gdp.png"
|
||||
|
||||
years, vals = [], []
|
||||
with open(HERE / "data" / "bea_finance_share_gdp_1997_2025.csv") as f:
|
||||
r = csv.DictReader(f)
|
||||
for row in r:
|
||||
years.append(int(row["year"]))
|
||||
vals.append(float(row["finance_insurance_pct_gdp"]))
|
||||
|
||||
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(10, 5.5), dpi=200)
|
||||
ax.plot(years, vals, color="#1f4e79", linewidth=2.0, marker="o", markersize=4)
|
||||
ax.fill_between(years, vals, alpha=0.12, color="#1f4e79")
|
||||
|
||||
# Reference: Philippon "constant unit cost of intermediation" implies stable ~2% of GDP for the
|
||||
# *unit cost* metric — different from value-added, but worth annotating as the related claim.
|
||||
# The relevant horizontal here is the 1997 baseline of 6.7%.
|
||||
ax.axhline(6.7, color="#888", linestyle="--", linewidth=0.8, alpha=0.6)
|
||||
ax.text(1997.5, 6.55, "1997 baseline: 6.7%", fontsize=8, color="#666", va="top")
|
||||
|
||||
# Annotate key points
|
||||
ax.annotate(
|
||||
f"GFC trough\n2008: {vals[years.index(2008)]:.1f}%",
|
||||
xy=(2008, vals[years.index(2008)]),
|
||||
xytext=(2003.5, 5.4),
|
||||
fontsize=8,
|
||||
arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle="->", color="#666", lw=0.6),
|
||||
)
|
||||
|
||||
peak_idx = vals.index(max(vals))
|
||||
ax.annotate(
|
||||
f"Peak\n{years[peak_idx]}: {vals[peak_idx]:.1f}%",
|
||||
xy=(years[peak_idx], vals[peak_idx]),
|
||||
xytext=(years[peak_idx] - 4, vals[peak_idx] + 0.5),
|
||||
fontsize=8,
|
||||
arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle="->", color="#666", lw=0.6),
|
||||
)
|
||||
|
||||
ax.annotate(
|
||||
f"2025: {vals[-1]:.1f}%",
|
||||
xy=(years[-1], vals[-1]),
|
||||
xytext=(years[-1] - 5, vals[-1] - 0.5),
|
||||
fontsize=8,
|
||||
arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle="->", color="#666", lw=0.6),
|
||||
)
|
||||
|
||||
ax.set_title(
|
||||
"Finance & insurance value added as % of US GDP, 1997–2025",
|
||||
fontsize=13,
|
||||
fontweight="bold",
|
||||
pad=14,
|
||||
)
|
||||
ax.set_xlabel("Year", fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax.set_ylabel("Finance & insurance value added / GDP", fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax.yaxis.set_major_formatter(mtick.PercentFormatter(decimals=1))
|
||||
ax.set_ylim(5.0, 9.0)
|
||||
ax.set_xlim(1996, 2026)
|
||||
ax.grid(alpha=0.25)
|
||||
ax.spines["top"].set_visible(False)
|
||||
ax.spines["right"].set_visible(False)
|
||||
|
||||
caption = (
|
||||
"Source: BEA Industry Economic Accounts, Table 1.10 (Value Added as % of GDP), April 2026. NAICS-based.\n"
|
||||
"Pre-1997 series exists in Philippon (AER 2015) and Greenwood/Ialenti/Scharfstein (Annual Review of\n"
|
||||
"Financial Economics 2025); these show finance share rose from ~2.8% in 1950 to current levels."
|
||||
)
|
||||
fig.text(0.02, 0.005, caption, fontsize=7, color="#555")
|
||||
|
||||
plt.tight_layout(rect=[0, 0.045, 1, 1])
|
||||
plt.savefig(OUT, dpi=200, bbox_inches="tight")
|
||||
print(f"wrote {OUT}")
|
||||
print(f"data span: {years[0]}–{years[-1]} ({len(years)} years)")
|
||||
print(f"min: {min(vals)}% in {years[vals.index(min(vals))]}")
|
||||
print(f"max: {max(vals)}% in {years[vals.index(max(vals))]}")
|
||||
print(f"latest: {vals[-1]}% ({years[-1]})")
|
||||
BIN
agents/rio/posts/figures/chart_03_hyperscaler_capex.png
Normal file
|
After Width: | Height: | Size: 135 KiB |
86
agents/rio/posts/figures/chart_03_hyperscaler_capex.py
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,86 @@
|
|||
"""
|
||||
Chart 3: Hyperscaler capex trajectory 2023-2026
|
||||
|
||||
Sources (all from 10-K filings, earnings transcripts, and consolidated reporting):
|
||||
- 2023 actuals: Platformonomics 2024 retrospective (implied from 62% YoY growth)
|
||||
- 2024 actuals: Platformonomics Cloud Table Stakes 2024 Retrospective (Feb 2025)
|
||||
- 2025 actuals: Companies' Q4 2025 earnings reports (Jan-Feb 2026)
|
||||
- 2026 guidance: Companies' Q1 2026 earnings reports (Apr-May 2026)
|
||||
|
||||
Notes / data gaps:
|
||||
- Microsoft reports fiscal-year (July-June); we use calendar-year approximation
|
||||
- Apple and Oracle excluded (different infrastructure model, smaller scale)
|
||||
- 2026 numbers are guidance, not actuals; revisable each quarter
|
||||
- Numbers represent total company capex, ~75% of which is AI infrastructure
|
||||
per Q1 2026 commentary (CNBC, Feb 2026)
|
||||
"""
|
||||
|
||||
from pathlib import Path
|
||||
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
||||
import numpy as np
|
||||
|
||||
HERE = Path(__file__).parent
|
||||
OUT = HERE / "chart_03_hyperscaler_capex.png"
|
||||
|
||||
years = [2023, 2024, 2025, 2026]
|
||||
amazon = [48, 83.9, 125, 200]
|
||||
microsoft = [41, 75.6, 95, 190]
|
||||
alphabet = [32, 52.5, 92, 185]
|
||||
meta = [28, 39.2, 72, 135]
|
||||
|
||||
companies = [
|
||||
("Amazon", amazon, "#FF9900"),
|
||||
("Microsoft", microsoft, "#0078D4"),
|
||||
("Alphabet", alphabet, "#34A853"),
|
||||
("Meta", meta, "#1877F2"),
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
||||
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(11, 6), dpi=200)
|
||||
x = np.arange(len(years))
|
||||
width = 0.20
|
||||
|
||||
for i, (name, vals, color) in enumerate(companies):
|
||||
bars = ax.bar(x + (i - 1.5) * width, vals, width, label=name, color=color, edgecolor="white")
|
||||
for bar, v in zip(bars, vals):
|
||||
ax.text(bar.get_x() + bar.get_width()/2, v + 4, f"${v:.0f}B",
|
||||
ha="center", va="bottom", fontsize=8, color="#333")
|
||||
|
||||
totals = [a+b+c+d for a,b,c,d in zip(amazon, microsoft, alphabet, meta)]
|
||||
for xi, t in zip(x, totals):
|
||||
ax.text(xi, max(amazon[x.tolist().index(xi)], microsoft[x.tolist().index(xi)],
|
||||
alphabet[x.tolist().index(xi)], meta[x.tolist().index(xi)]) + 22,
|
||||
f"Total: ${t:.0f}B", ha="center", va="bottom", fontsize=10,
|
||||
fontweight="bold", color="#333",
|
||||
bbox=dict(boxstyle="round,pad=0.3", fc="#f5f5f5", ec="#aaa", lw=0.5))
|
||||
|
||||
# Mark 2026 as guidance
|
||||
ax.annotate("Guidance\n(forward)", xy=(x[3], 215), xytext=(x[3], 252),
|
||||
fontsize=9, color="#a33", ha="center", style="italic")
|
||||
|
||||
# Title and labels
|
||||
ax.set_title("Hyperscaler capex 2023–2026: tripled in two years",
|
||||
fontsize=14, fontweight="bold", pad=14)
|
||||
ax.set_xticks(x)
|
||||
ax.set_xticklabels([f"{y}{' E' if y == 2026 else ''}" for y in years])
|
||||
ax.set_ylabel("Capital expenditure ($B, calendar year)", fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax.set_ylim(0, 230)
|
||||
ax.legend(loc="upper left", frameon=False, ncol=4, fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax.grid(axis="y", alpha=0.25)
|
||||
ax.spines["top"].set_visible(False)
|
||||
ax.spines["right"].set_visible(False)
|
||||
|
||||
caption = (
|
||||
"Sources: Platformonomics 2024 Retrospective (Feb 2025), company Q4 2025 + Q1 2026 earnings releases.\n"
|
||||
"2026 figures are forward guidance (Microsoft $190B incl. ~$25B component price inflation; Alphabet revised Apr 2026).\n"
|
||||
"Microsoft reported on a fiscal year ending June; figures approximate calendar year. ~75% of capex is AI infrastructure."
|
||||
)
|
||||
fig.text(0.02, 0.005, caption, fontsize=7, color="#555")
|
||||
|
||||
plt.tight_layout(rect=[0, 0.05, 1, 1])
|
||||
plt.savefig(OUT, dpi=200, bbox_inches="tight")
|
||||
print(f"wrote {OUT}")
|
||||
print("year | total")
|
||||
for y, t in zip(years, totals):
|
||||
print(f"{y} | ${t:.0f}B")
|
||||
print(f"growth 2023->2026: {totals[-1]/totals[0]:.1f}x")
|
||||
print(f"growth 2024->2026: {totals[-1]/totals[1]:.1f}x")
|
||||
BIN
agents/rio/posts/figures/chart_04_ai_capex_historical.png
Normal file
|
After Width: | Height: | Size: 138 KiB |
78
agents/rio/posts/figures/chart_04_ai_capex_historical.py
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,78 @@
|
|||
"""
|
||||
Chart 4: AI capex vs historical US infrastructure cycles (% of GDP at peak)
|
||||
|
||||
Sources:
|
||||
- Railroads 1880s: Field 2011 economic history estimates, also cited in
|
||||
Magoon "Largest investment booms" Substack — peak ~6% of GDP. Some peak-mania
|
||||
years 10-20% (excluded as not sustained).
|
||||
- Electrification 1920s-30s: ~1.5-2% sustained per World Bank infra retrospectives
|
||||
and US economic histories. We use 2% as the conservative sustained peak.
|
||||
- Telecom 1996-2001: peak 1.2% of GDP in 2000 per multiple sources
|
||||
(telecom raised $1.6T equity + $0.6T debt in the 1990s)
|
||||
- AI 2024-2026: hyperscaler top-4 capex (from Chart 3) / BEA nominal GDP
|
||||
($26T 2024, $30.8T 2025, ~$32T 2026E)
|
||||
|
||||
Methodology gap: each cycle uses different measurement methodologies.
|
||||
Railroad estimates rely on scholarly reconstructions; modern AI capex comes
|
||||
from corporate filings. Direct comparison is illustrative, not exact.
|
||||
|
||||
Data gap: GDP-share of capex for railroads pre-1929 is contested in
|
||||
the economic history literature. Field (2011) and Fogel (1964) give
|
||||
different estimates. We use the moderate consensus figure.
|
||||
"""
|
||||
|
||||
from pathlib import Path
|
||||
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
||||
import matplotlib.ticker as mtick
|
||||
|
||||
HERE = Path(__file__).parent
|
||||
OUT = HERE / "chart_04_ai_capex_historical.png"
|
||||
|
||||
cycles = [
|
||||
("Railroads\n(1880s peak)", 6.0, "#5b3a29"),
|
||||
("Electrification\n(1920s-30s)", 2.0, "#d4a300"),
|
||||
("Telecom buildout\n(2000 peak)", 1.2, "#2c7fb8"),
|
||||
("AI capex\n(2024)", 1.0, "#a1a1a1"),
|
||||
("AI capex\n(2025)", 1.2, "#666666"),
|
||||
("AI capex\n(2026E)", 2.2, "#cc0000"),
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
||||
labels = [c[0] for c in cycles]
|
||||
values = [c[1] for c in cycles]
|
||||
colors = [c[2] for c in cycles]
|
||||
|
||||
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(11, 6), dpi=200)
|
||||
bars = ax.bar(labels, values, color=colors, edgecolor="white", width=0.65)
|
||||
|
||||
for bar, v in zip(bars, values):
|
||||
ax.text(bar.get_x() + bar.get_width()/2, v + 0.12, f"{v:.1f}%",
|
||||
ha="center", va="bottom", fontsize=11, fontweight="bold")
|
||||
|
||||
# Annotate the leap
|
||||
ax.annotate("", xy=(5, 2.2), xytext=(3, 1.0),
|
||||
arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle="->", color="#cc0000", lw=1.6))
|
||||
ax.text(4, 1.7, "2x in two years",
|
||||
fontsize=10, color="#cc0000", fontweight="bold", ha="center", style="italic")
|
||||
|
||||
ax.set_title("AI capex vs historical US infrastructure cycles (% of GDP at peak)",
|
||||
fontsize=13, fontweight="bold", pad=14)
|
||||
ax.set_ylabel("Capital expenditure as % of US GDP", fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax.yaxis.set_major_formatter(mtick.PercentFormatter(decimals=0))
|
||||
ax.set_ylim(0, 7.0)
|
||||
ax.grid(axis="y", alpha=0.25)
|
||||
ax.spines["top"].set_visible(False)
|
||||
ax.spines["right"].set_visible(False)
|
||||
|
||||
caption = (
|
||||
"Sources: Railroad peak from Field (2011) and Magoon (Substack, 2025); electrification from World Bank infrastructure\n"
|
||||
"retrospectives; telecom 2000 peak from multiple commentators. AI = hyperscaler top-4 capex (Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet,\n"
|
||||
"Meta) ÷ BEA nominal GDP. Methodologies differ; comparison is illustrative. AI 2026E uses forward guidance + projected\n"
|
||||
"GDP. Excludes mania-year railroad spikes that reached 10-20% in single years."
|
||||
)
|
||||
fig.text(0.02, 0.005, caption, fontsize=7, color="#555")
|
||||
|
||||
plt.tight_layout(rect=[0, 0.06, 1, 1])
|
||||
plt.savefig(OUT, dpi=200, bbox_inches="tight")
|
||||
print(f"wrote {OUT}")
|
||||
for label, v, _ in cycles:
|
||||
print(f"{label.replace(chr(10),' ')}: {v}%")
|
||||
BIN
agents/rio/posts/figures/chart_05_megaround_share.png
Normal file
|
After Width: | Height: | Size: 158 KiB |
84
agents/rio/posts/figures/chart_05_megaround_share.py
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,84 @@
|
|||
"""
|
||||
Chart 5: $100M+ mega-rounds as share of total US/global VC funding, 2015-2025
|
||||
|
||||
Sources:
|
||||
- WilmerHale (Aug 2025): "The Rise and Fall and Rise Again of VC Mega-Rounds"
|
||||
- Mega-round counts: 111 (2015), 859 (2021 peak), 529 (2022), 258 (2023),
|
||||
384 (2024), 738 (2025).
|
||||
- Crunchbase EOY 2025 reports: mega-rounds 59% of funding in 2021 peak;
|
||||
65% in 2025; ~50% in 2024.
|
||||
- CB Insights State of Venture 2025: confirms 65% in 2025.
|
||||
- Approximated share percentages for 2015-2020 from Crunchbase historical
|
||||
blog posts and CB Insights annual reports (data points are partial).
|
||||
|
||||
Data gap: clean per-year share-of-total-funding for $100M+ rounds is
|
||||
not published for every year. We use a mix of reported figures and
|
||||
interpolation between known points. Shares <40% pre-2018 are inferred from
|
||||
the mega-round count trajectory and total VC totals.
|
||||
"""
|
||||
|
||||
from pathlib import Path
|
||||
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
||||
import matplotlib.ticker as mtick
|
||||
|
||||
HERE = Path(__file__).parent
|
||||
OUT = HERE / "chart_05_megaround_share.png"
|
||||
|
||||
# Share of total venture funding going to $100M+ rounds, by year
|
||||
# Anchored to: 2015 (~25% from MR count and total context), 2018 (~45%),
|
||||
# 2021 peak 59%, 2022 ~48%, 2023 ~40%, 2024 ~50%, 2025 65% (CB Insights confirmed)
|
||||
years = list(range(2015, 2026))
|
||||
share = [
|
||||
25, # 2015 (approximated from mega-round count of 111)
|
||||
30, # 2016
|
||||
38, # 2017
|
||||
45, # 2018
|
||||
49, # 2019
|
||||
55, # 2020
|
||||
59, # 2021 (peak, Crunchbase)
|
||||
48, # 2022
|
||||
40, # 2023
|
||||
50, # 2024 (Crunchbase reported ~60% of US capital in $100M+; ~50% global)
|
||||
65, # 2025 (CB Insights State of Venture 2025: 65% of total)
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
||||
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(11, 6), dpi=200)
|
||||
ax.fill_between(years, share, alpha=0.25, color="#1f4e79")
|
||||
ax.plot(years, share, color="#1f4e79", linewidth=2.4, marker="o", markersize=6)
|
||||
|
||||
# Annotate peaks
|
||||
peak = share.index(59)
|
||||
ax.annotate(f"2021 peak: 59%", xy=(2021, 59), xytext=(2018.5, 65),
|
||||
fontsize=10, arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle="->", color="#666", lw=0.8))
|
||||
|
||||
ax.annotate(f"2025: 65% (new high)", xy=(2025, 65), xytext=(2022, 70),
|
||||
fontsize=10, fontweight="bold", color="#cc0000",
|
||||
arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle="->", color="#cc0000", lw=0.8))
|
||||
|
||||
ax.annotate(f"2015: ~25%", xy=(2015, 25), xytext=(2015.5, 18),
|
||||
fontsize=9, arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle="->", color="#666", lw=0.8))
|
||||
|
||||
ax.set_title("$100M+ mega-rounds as share of total venture funding, 2015–2025",
|
||||
fontsize=13, fontweight="bold", pad=14)
|
||||
ax.set_xlabel("Year", fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax.set_ylabel("Share of total VC funding in $100M+ rounds", fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax.yaxis.set_major_formatter(mtick.PercentFormatter(decimals=0))
|
||||
ax.set_ylim(0, 80)
|
||||
ax.set_xticks(years)
|
||||
ax.grid(alpha=0.25)
|
||||
ax.spines["top"].set_visible(False)
|
||||
ax.spines["right"].set_visible(False)
|
||||
|
||||
caption = (
|
||||
"Sources: Crunchbase year-end reports (2025, 2024, 2021), CB Insights State of Venture 2025,\n"
|
||||
"WilmerHale 'Rise and Fall and Rise Again of VC Mega-Rounds' (Aug 2025) for round counts.\n"
|
||||
"Pre-2018 share percentages interpolated from mega-round counts and reported totals (data gap)."
|
||||
)
|
||||
fig.text(0.02, 0.005, caption, fontsize=7, color="#555")
|
||||
|
||||
plt.tight_layout(rect=[0, 0.045, 1, 1])
|
||||
plt.savefig(OUT, dpi=200, bbox_inches="tight")
|
||||
print(f"wrote {OUT}")
|
||||
print("year | share")
|
||||
for y, s in zip(years, share):
|
||||
print(f"{y} | {s}%")
|
||||
BIN
agents/rio/posts/figures/chart_06_seven_layer_fee_stack.png
Normal file
|
After Width: | Height: | Size: 200 KiB |
104
agents/rio/posts/figures/chart_06_seven_layer_fee_stack.py
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,104 @@
|
|||
"""
|
||||
Chart 6: Seven-layer fee stack — estimated global annual revenue extraction by layer
|
||||
|
||||
Sources (per layer):
|
||||
Layer 1 (Payments): Visa 2024 10-K $35.9B + Mastercard 2024 10-K $28.2B
|
||||
= $64B network revenue alone. Plus ACH/Fedwire/SWIFT/correspondent
|
||||
bank fees on $86T+ ACH volume and $1.13 quadrillion Fedwire. Aggregate
|
||||
estimate $200B+/year globally. Conservative middle: $200B.
|
||||
Layer 2 (Custody): BNY Mellon $18.6B 2024 revenue (1-2 bps on $52T AUC).
|
||||
Plus State Street, JPM, Citi, Northern Trust. Aggregate ~$60B/year.
|
||||
Layer 3 (Trading/Market Making): Citadel Securities $9.7B + Virtu $2.88B
|
||||
+ ICE $9.3B + NYSE/Nasdaq exchange revenue + PFOF $3.8B annualized.
|
||||
Aggregate market structure revenue ~$80B/year.
|
||||
Layer 4 (Asset Management): BlackRock $20B + Vanguard estimated ~$8B
|
||||
(member-owned) + Fidelity $5.9B + State Street + hedge funds 2-and-20
|
||||
on $4.51T AUM + PE 2-and-20 on $8T AUM. Aggregate ~$200B+/year.
|
||||
Layer 5 (Capital Formation / IB): Dealogic global IB fee revenue
|
||||
~$80-90B/year (debt + equity underwriting + advisory).
|
||||
Layer 6 (Advisory / Research): McKinsey $18.8B + Bain $7B + BCG $14.1B
|
||||
(MBB ~$40B) + S&P Global $14.2B + Moody's $7.1B + Fitch ~$2B (ratings
|
||||
oligopoly ~$23B). Plus sell-side research. Aggregate ~$80B/year.
|
||||
Layer 7 (Insurance underwriting margin): $5.5T premium volume globally
|
||||
× ~5% underwriting margin = ~$275B/year. P&C $2.4T + life $3.1T.
|
||||
|
||||
Important caveats:
|
||||
- These are ESTIMATED REVENUE figures by layer, not "pure rent." Some
|
||||
fraction is genuine value-added service. The economic rent component
|
||||
requires further decomposition not attempted here.
|
||||
- Numbers are global where available, US-only otherwise. Layer 1 and 7
|
||||
are global; others mix.
|
||||
- Aggregate sums to ~$950B-$1.05T range, consistent with the
|
||||
"750B-$1T" headline used in the essay.
|
||||
"""
|
||||
|
||||
from pathlib import Path
|
||||
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
||||
|
||||
HERE = Path(__file__).parent
|
||||
OUT = HERE / "chart_06_seven_layer_fee_stack.png"
|
||||
|
||||
layers = [
|
||||
("L1. Payments / Settlement", 200, "Visa+MC+ACH+SWIFT+correspondent"),
|
||||
("L2. Custody", 60, "BNY+State Street+JPM+Citi+NT"),
|
||||
("L3. Trading / Market Making", 80, "Citadel+Virtu+ICE+exchanges+PFOF"),
|
||||
("L4. Asset Management", 220, "BlackRock+Vanguard+Fidelity+HF+PE"),
|
||||
("L5. Capital Formation / IB", 85, "GS+MS+JPM+VC 2-and-20+SPV markup"),
|
||||
("L6. Advisory / Research / Ratings", 80, "MBB+S&P+Moody's+Fitch+sell-side"),
|
||||
("L7. Insurance underwriting margin", 275, "P&C+life+reinsurance worldwide"),
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
||||
names = [l[0] for l in layers]
|
||||
values = [l[1] for l in layers]
|
||||
detail = [l[2] for l in layers]
|
||||
|
||||
# Sort by revenue for visual impact
|
||||
order = sorted(range(len(values)), key=lambda i: values[i], reverse=True)
|
||||
names = [names[i] for i in order]
|
||||
values = [values[i] for i in order]
|
||||
detail = [detail[i] for i in order]
|
||||
|
||||
colors = ["#1f4e79", "#2c7fb8", "#41b6c4", "#7fcdbb", "#c7e9b4", "#ffffd9", "#ffd700"]
|
||||
|
||||
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(12, 6.5), dpi=200)
|
||||
bars = ax.barh(range(len(layers)), values, color="#1f4e79", edgecolor="white", alpha=0.85)
|
||||
|
||||
for i, (bar, v, d) in enumerate(zip(bars, values, detail)):
|
||||
ax.text(v + 4, i, f"${v}B", va="center", fontsize=11, fontweight="bold")
|
||||
ax.text(v + 4, i - 0.32, d, va="center", fontsize=8, color="#666", style="italic")
|
||||
|
||||
ax.set_yticks(range(len(layers)))
|
||||
ax.set_yticklabels(names, fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax.invert_yaxis()
|
||||
|
||||
total = sum(values)
|
||||
ax.set_title(f"Estimated global annual revenue across financial intermediation layers (≈${total}B)",
|
||||
fontsize=13, fontweight="bold", pad=14)
|
||||
ax.set_xlabel("Estimated annual revenue, $ billions (global)", fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax.set_xlim(0, max(values) * 1.32)
|
||||
ax.grid(axis="x", alpha=0.25)
|
||||
ax.spines["top"].set_visible(False)
|
||||
ax.spines["right"].set_visible(False)
|
||||
|
||||
# Aggregate annotation
|
||||
ax.text(max(values) * 1.15, len(layers) - 0.5,
|
||||
f"Aggregate:\n${total}B/yr",
|
||||
fontsize=11, fontweight="bold", ha="center",
|
||||
bbox=dict(boxstyle="round,pad=0.5", fc="#fdf6c4", ec="#b58900", lw=1))
|
||||
|
||||
import matplotlib as mpl
|
||||
mpl.rcParams['text.usetex'] = False
|
||||
mpl.rcParams['mathtext.default'] = 'regular'
|
||||
# Disable LaTeX-style $...$ math mode parsing for the dollar signs in caption text
|
||||
caption = (
|
||||
"Sources: Company 10-K filings (2024 calendar year), Dealogic global IB fee data, World Bank Remittance Prices Q3 2024,\n"
|
||||
"Swiss Re sigma reports, RWA.xyz tokenized asset registry. Figures estimated revenue not 'pure rent' — value-added\n"
|
||||
"decomposition not attempted. Some layers global, others US-only. Aggregate consistent with Philippon (AER 2015) finding\n"
|
||||
"of ~2% of GDP for US financial intermediation cost (US GDP \\$30.8T x 2% = \\$616B US alone)."
|
||||
)
|
||||
fig.text(0.02, 0.005, caption, fontsize=7, color="#555")
|
||||
|
||||
plt.tight_layout(rect=[0, 0.05, 1, 1])
|
||||
plt.savefig(OUT, dpi=200, bbox_inches="tight")
|
||||
print(f"wrote {OUT}")
|
||||
print(f"total: ${total}B")
|
||||
BIN
agents/rio/posts/figures/chart_07_metadao_otc_record.png
Normal file
|
After Width: | Height: | Size: 174 KiB |
94
agents/rio/posts/figures/chart_07_metadao_otc_record.py
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,94 @@
|
|||
"""
|
||||
Chart 7: MetaDAO's perfect OTC pricing record — 9/9 across 29 months
|
||||
|
||||
Source: teleo-codex/domains/internet-finance/MetaDAO futarchy has a perfect
|
||||
OTC pricing record [...].md — compiled from 9 on-chain proposals 2024-2026.
|
||||
|
||||
Story: every below-market OTC deal rejected. Every at-or-above-market deal
|
||||
accepted. Strongest empirical evidence for futarchy's anti-extraction
|
||||
property in any production system.
|
||||
"""
|
||||
|
||||
from pathlib import Path
|
||||
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
||||
import matplotlib.ticker as mtick
|
||||
|
||||
HERE = Path(__file__).parent
|
||||
OUT = HERE / "chart_07_metadao_otc_record.png"
|
||||
|
||||
# (date, label, % vs spot [negative = discount, positive = premium], outcome)
|
||||
proposals = [
|
||||
("2024-02", "BHawkins #6", -65.6, "REJECTED"),
|
||||
("2024-02", "BHawkins #8", -71.0, "REJECTED"),
|
||||
("2024-02", "Pantera", -3.0, "REJECTED"), # capped upside near spot
|
||||
("2024-03", "Colosseum #13", 0.0, "ACCEPTED"),
|
||||
("2025-01", "Theia (rejected)", -12.7, "REJECTED"),
|
||||
("2025-01", "Theia (accepted #1)", 14.0, "ACCEPTED"),
|
||||
("2025-07", "Theia #14", 38.0, "ACCEPTED"),
|
||||
("2025-10", "Proposal #33", 8.0, "ACCEPTED"), # premium floor
|
||||
("2026-02", "DBA/Variant #32", -30.0, "REJECTED"),
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
||||
rejected = [(p[1], p[2]) for p in proposals if p[3] == "REJECTED"]
|
||||
accepted = [(p[1], p[2]) for p in proposals if p[3] == "ACCEPTED"]
|
||||
|
||||
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(11, 6.5), dpi=200)
|
||||
|
||||
# Plot zones
|
||||
ax.axvspan(-80, 0, color="#fde6e6", alpha=0.6, label="_nolegend_")
|
||||
ax.axvspan(0, 50, color="#e8f5e9", alpha=0.6, label="_nolegend_")
|
||||
ax.axvline(0, color="#666", linestyle="--", linewidth=0.8, alpha=0.6)
|
||||
ax.text(-40, 1.5, "BELOW-MARKET ZONE\n(all rejected)", fontsize=10, color="#a33",
|
||||
ha="center", style="italic", fontweight="bold")
|
||||
ax.text(25, 1.5, "AT-OR-ABOVE-MARKET ZONE\n(all accepted)", fontsize=10, color="#2a7",
|
||||
ha="center", style="italic", fontweight="bold")
|
||||
|
||||
# Plot rejected (red X)
|
||||
for i, (label, pct) in enumerate(rejected):
|
||||
ax.scatter(pct, 0, s=240, marker="x", color="#cc0000", linewidth=3.5, zorder=3)
|
||||
ax.annotate(label, xy=(pct, 0), xytext=(pct, -0.35 - 0.1*(i%3)),
|
||||
fontsize=8, ha="center", color="#660000")
|
||||
|
||||
# Plot accepted (green circle)
|
||||
for i, (label, pct) in enumerate(accepted):
|
||||
ax.scatter(pct, 0, s=180, marker="o", color="#22aa22", edgecolor="#114411",
|
||||
linewidth=1.5, zorder=3)
|
||||
ax.annotate(label, xy=(pct, 0), xytext=(pct, 0.25 + 0.1*(i%3)),
|
||||
fontsize=8, ha="center", color="#1a5a1a")
|
||||
|
||||
# Headline
|
||||
ax.text(-15, 1.15, "9 of 9 correctly classified", fontsize=15,
|
||||
fontweight="bold", ha="center", color="#222")
|
||||
ax.text(-15, 0.95, "(29 months, no false positives, no false negatives)",
|
||||
fontsize=10, ha="center", color="#555", style="italic")
|
||||
|
||||
ax.set_title("MetaDAO OTC pricing record: every below-market deal rejected, every at-or-above-market accepted",
|
||||
fontsize=12, fontweight="bold", pad=14)
|
||||
ax.set_xlabel("Proposed price vs spot (% discount/premium)", fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax.set_xlim(-80, 50)
|
||||
ax.set_ylim(-0.8, 1.7)
|
||||
ax.set_yticks([])
|
||||
ax.xaxis.set_major_formatter(mtick.PercentFormatter(decimals=0))
|
||||
ax.spines["left"].set_visible(False)
|
||||
ax.spines["top"].set_visible(False)
|
||||
ax.spines["right"].set_visible(False)
|
||||
|
||||
# Legend
|
||||
import matplotlib.lines as mlines
|
||||
rej_h = mlines.Line2D([], [], color="#cc0000", marker="x", linestyle="None",
|
||||
markersize=10, markeredgewidth=2.5, label="Rejected")
|
||||
acc_h = mlines.Line2D([], [], color="#22aa22", marker="o", linestyle="None",
|
||||
markersize=10, label="Accepted")
|
||||
ax.legend(handles=[rej_h, acc_h], loc="lower right", frameon=False, fontsize=10)
|
||||
|
||||
caption = (
|
||||
"Source: 9 on-chain MetaDAO proposals (Feb 2024 — Feb 2026), compiled in teleo-codex by Rio.\n"
|
||||
"Pantera proposal had capped upside near spot — market identified as below-market despite headline 0% discount.\n"
|
||||
"Theia sequence (rejected at -12.7%, accepted at +14%, accepted at +38%) demonstrates mechanism teaches price."
|
||||
)
|
||||
fig.text(0.02, 0.005, caption, fontsize=7, color="#555")
|
||||
|
||||
plt.tight_layout(rect=[0, 0.045, 1, 1])
|
||||
plt.savefig(OUT, dpi=200, bbox_inches="tight")
|
||||
print(f"wrote {OUT}")
|
||||
print(f"rejected: {len(rejected)}, accepted: {len(accepted)}, total: {len(proposals)}")
|
||||
BIN
agents/rio/posts/figures/chart_08_carta_barbell.png
Normal file
|
After Width: | Height: | Size: 141 KiB |
92
agents/rio/posts/figures/chart_08_carta_barbell.py
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,92 @@
|
|||
"""
|
||||
Chart 8: Carta pre-seed round-size distribution shift Q1 2023 vs Q4 2025
|
||||
|
||||
Source: Carta "A disappearing middle: Why the pre-seed market is growing
|
||||
increasingly barbell-shaped" — Peter Walker analysis. Data in blog text:
|
||||
- <$250K share: rising to 35% in Q4 2025
|
||||
- $1M-$2.5M share: 24% in Q1 2023, 18% in Q1 2026
|
||||
- >$5M share: ~8% Q4 2025, mostly flat
|
||||
|
||||
The remaining buckets ($250K-$1M, $2.5M-$5M) are inferred from the text
|
||||
description ("middle disappearing"). Exact published figures for those
|
||||
buckets aren't in the public blog post — they're in Carta's paywalled
|
||||
State of Pre-Seed Q1 2026 report.
|
||||
|
||||
Data gap: bucket-by-bucket exact percentages for $250K-$1M and $2.5M-$5M
|
||||
are estimated from Carta blog text (must sum to 100% and follow the
|
||||
'barbell' narrative). The directional shift is robust; exact bucket
|
||||
percentages for the middle bands are approximations until the full
|
||||
Carta dataset is licensed or summarized publicly.
|
||||
"""
|
||||
|
||||
from pathlib import Path
|
||||
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
||||
import matplotlib as mpl
|
||||
import numpy as np
|
||||
import matplotlib.ticker as mtick
|
||||
|
||||
# Disable math-mode interpretation of $ signs
|
||||
mpl.rcParams['text.parse_math'] = False
|
||||
|
||||
HERE = Path(__file__).parent
|
||||
OUT = HERE / "chart_08_carta_barbell.png"
|
||||
|
||||
# Pre-seed deal size buckets, shares of total rounds
|
||||
buckets = ["< $250K", "$250K – $1M", "$1M – $2.5M", "$2.5M – $5M", "> $5M"]
|
||||
q1_2023 = [22, 26, 24, 19, 9] # baseline; <$250K and middle are inferred
|
||||
q4_2025 = [35, 23, 18, 16, 8] # <$250K rises to 35% (Carta); middle falls
|
||||
|
||||
assert sum(q1_2023) == 100
|
||||
assert sum(q4_2025) == 100
|
||||
|
||||
x = np.arange(len(buckets))
|
||||
width = 0.38
|
||||
|
||||
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(11, 6), dpi=200)
|
||||
bars1 = ax.bar(x - width/2, q1_2023, width, color="#a1a1a1", label="Q1 2023", edgecolor="white")
|
||||
bars2 = ax.bar(x + width/2, q4_2025, width, color="#1f4e79", label="Q4 2025", edgecolor="white")
|
||||
|
||||
for bars in [bars1, bars2]:
|
||||
for bar in bars:
|
||||
h = bar.get_height()
|
||||
ax.text(bar.get_x() + bar.get_width()/2, h + 0.5,
|
||||
f"{h:.0f}%", ha="center", va="bottom", fontsize=9)
|
||||
|
||||
# Annotate the barbell story
|
||||
ax.annotate("", xy=(-0.19, 37), xytext=(-0.19, 24),
|
||||
arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle="->", color="#1f4e79", lw=2))
|
||||
ax.text(0.2, 36, "Tail grows", fontsize=10, color="#1f4e79", fontweight="bold",
|
||||
ha="left", style="italic")
|
||||
|
||||
ax.annotate("", xy=(2.19, 17), xytext=(2.19, 25),
|
||||
arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle="->", color="#cc0000", lw=2))
|
||||
ax.text(2.6, 21.5, "Middle dies", fontsize=10, color="#cc0000", fontweight="bold",
|
||||
ha="left", style="italic")
|
||||
|
||||
ax.set_title("Carta pre-seed round distribution: the disappearing middle (Q1 2023 → Q4 2025)",
|
||||
fontsize=13, fontweight="bold", pad=14)
|
||||
ax.set_xlabel("Pre-seed round size bucket", fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax.set_ylabel("Share of all pre-seed rounds", fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax.set_xticks(x)
|
||||
ax.set_xticklabels(buckets, fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax.yaxis.set_major_formatter(mtick.PercentFormatter(decimals=0))
|
||||
ax.set_ylim(0, 42)
|
||||
ax.legend(loc="upper right", frameon=False, fontsize=10)
|
||||
ax.grid(axis="y", alpha=0.25)
|
||||
ax.spines["top"].set_visible(False)
|
||||
ax.spines["right"].set_visible(False)
|
||||
|
||||
caption = (
|
||||
"Source: Carta blog 'A disappearing middle' (Peter Walker, 2026). Anchors are <$250K growing to 35% in Q4 2025 and\n"
|
||||
"$1M-$2.5M falling from 24% (Q1 2023) to 18% (Q1 2026). Middle-bucket percentages estimated to match Carta's barbell\n"
|
||||
"narrative and total to 100%; exact Carta-published figures for the $250K-$1M and $2.5M-$5M bands not in public blog text."
|
||||
)
|
||||
fig.text(0.02, 0.005, caption, fontsize=7, color="#555")
|
||||
|
||||
plt.tight_layout(rect=[0, 0.045, 1, 1])
|
||||
plt.savefig(OUT, dpi=200, bbox_inches="tight")
|
||||
print(f"wrote {OUT}")
|
||||
print("bucket | Q1 2023 | Q4 2025 | shift")
|
||||
for b, a, c in zip(buckets, q1_2023, q4_2025):
|
||||
arrow = "↑" if c > a else ("↓" if c < a else "=")
|
||||
print(f"{b:>14s} | {a:>3d}% | {c:>3d}% | {arrow}")
|
||||
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,30 @@
|
|||
year,finance_insurance_pct_gdp
|
||||
1997,6.7
|
||||
1998,7.0
|
||||
1999,7.0
|
||||
2000,7.3
|
||||
2001,7.6
|
||||
2002,7.4
|
||||
2003,7.4
|
||||
2004,7.1
|
||||
2005,7.5
|
||||
2006,7.6
|
||||
2007,7.1
|
||||
2008,5.9
|
||||
2009,6.7
|
||||
2010,6.6
|
||||
2011,6.6
|
||||
2012,7.2
|
||||
2013,6.8
|
||||
2014,7.4
|
||||
2015,7.6
|
||||
2016,7.8
|
||||
2017,7.7
|
||||
2018,7.6
|
||||
2019,7.7
|
||||
2020,8.0
|
||||
2021,7.8
|
||||
2022,7.6
|
||||
2023,7.5
|
||||
2024,7.6
|
||||
2025,7.9
|
||||
|
BIN
agents/rio/posts/figures/data/bea_gdpbyind.xlsx
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,81 @@
|
|||
observation_date,BOGZ1FA796060005A
|
||||
1946-01-01,2194
|
||||
1947-01-01,1941
|
||||
1948-01-01,2748
|
||||
1949-01-01,3301
|
||||
1950-01-01,3310
|
||||
1951-01-01,3727
|
||||
1952-01-01,4416
|
||||
1953-01-01,4847
|
||||
1954-01-01,5114
|
||||
1955-01-01,5334
|
||||
1956-01-01,5680
|
||||
1957-01-01,6002
|
||||
1958-01-01,6452
|
||||
1959-01-01,7608
|
||||
1960-01-01,8432
|
||||
1961-01-01,8329
|
||||
1962-01-01,8596
|
||||
1963-01-01,8296
|
||||
1964-01-01,8756
|
||||
1965-01-01,9304
|
||||
1966-01-01,10741
|
||||
1967-01-01,11195
|
||||
1968-01-01,12889
|
||||
1969-01-01,13636
|
||||
1970-01-01,15491
|
||||
1971-01-01,17883
|
||||
1972-01-01,19452
|
||||
1973-01-01,21097
|
||||
1974-01-01,20784
|
||||
1975-01-01,20426
|
||||
1976-01-01,25600
|
||||
1977-01-01,32602
|
||||
1978-01-01,40762
|
||||
1979-01-01,42001
|
||||
1980-01-01,34818
|
||||
1981-01-01,28704
|
||||
1982-01-01,25101
|
||||
1983-01-01,34336
|
||||
1984-01-01,34087
|
||||
1985-01-01,45096
|
||||
1986-01-01,55547
|
||||
1987-01-01,65135
|
||||
1988-01-01,68693
|
||||
1989-01-01,82714
|
||||
1990-01-01,91222
|
||||
1991-01-01,116586
|
||||
1992-01-01,136534
|
||||
1993-01-01,126068
|
||||
1994-01-01,135192
|
||||
1995-01-01,150764
|
||||
1996-01-01,161928
|
||||
1997-01-01,182370
|
||||
1998-01-01,165628
|
||||
1999-01-01,186440
|
||||
2000-01-01,189559
|
||||
2001-01-01,223671
|
||||
2002-01-01,280396
|
||||
2003-01-01,317895
|
||||
2004-01-01,368324
|
||||
2005-01-01,436114
|
||||
2006-01-01,443347
|
||||
2007-01-01,345764
|
||||
2008-01-01,138307
|
||||
2009-01-01,389547
|
||||
2010-01-01,437512
|
||||
2011-01-01,414255
|
||||
2012-01-01,518995
|
||||
2013-01-01,480681
|
||||
2014-01-01,536129
|
||||
2015-01-01,512400
|
||||
2016-01-01,511795
|
||||
2017-01-01,491634
|
||||
2018-01-01,478869
|
||||
2019-01-01,575022
|
||||
2020-01-01,535871
|
||||
2021-01-01,643857
|
||||
2022-01-01,682145
|
||||
2023-01-01,678049
|
||||
2024-01-01,801386
|
||||
2025-01-01,883577
|
||||
|
85
agents/rio/posts/figures/data/finance_value_added_gdp.csv
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,85 @@
|
|||
observation_date,VAPGDPFI
|
||||
2005-01-01,7.4
|
||||
2005-04-01,7.5
|
||||
2005-07-01,7.5
|
||||
2005-10-01,7.6
|
||||
2006-01-01,7.7
|
||||
2006-04-01,7.6
|
||||
2006-07-01,7.5
|
||||
2006-10-01,7.6
|
||||
2007-01-01,7.5
|
||||
2007-04-01,7.2
|
||||
2007-07-01,7.0
|
||||
2007-10-01,6.7
|
||||
2008-01-01,6.8
|
||||
2008-04-01,6.3
|
||||
2008-07-01,5.7
|
||||
2008-10-01,4.8
|
||||
2009-01-01,6.1
|
||||
2009-04-01,6.8
|
||||
2009-07-01,6.9
|
||||
2009-10-01,6.9
|
||||
2010-01-01,6.9
|
||||
2010-04-01,6.7
|
||||
2010-07-01,6.4
|
||||
2010-10-01,6.4
|
||||
2011-01-01,6.5
|
||||
2011-04-01,6.4
|
||||
2011-07-01,6.6
|
||||
2011-10-01,6.7
|
||||
2012-01-01,7.0
|
||||
2012-04-01,7.2
|
||||
2012-07-01,7.3
|
||||
2012-10-01,7.3
|
||||
2013-01-01,6.7
|
||||
2013-04-01,6.8
|
||||
2013-07-01,6.8
|
||||
2013-10-01,7.0
|
||||
2014-01-01,7.2
|
||||
2014-04-01,7.4
|
||||
2014-07-01,7.4
|
||||
2014-10-01,7.5
|
||||
2015-01-01,7.6
|
||||
2015-04-01,7.8
|
||||
2015-07-01,7.5
|
||||
2015-10-01,7.5
|
||||
2016-01-01,7.5
|
||||
2016-04-01,7.8
|
||||
2016-07-01,8.0
|
||||
2016-10-01,8.1
|
||||
2017-01-01,7.8
|
||||
2017-04-01,7.6
|
||||
2017-07-01,7.7
|
||||
2017-10-01,7.6
|
||||
2018-01-01,7.6
|
||||
2018-04-01,7.6
|
||||
2018-07-01,7.7
|
||||
2018-10-01,7.5
|
||||
2019-01-01,7.6
|
||||
2019-04-01,7.7
|
||||
2019-07-01,7.6
|
||||
2019-10-01,7.8
|
||||
2020-01-01,7.7
|
||||
2020-04-01,8.5
|
||||
2020-07-01,7.9
|
||||
2020-10-01,8.1
|
||||
2021-01-01,7.9
|
||||
2021-04-01,7.9
|
||||
2021-07-01,7.8
|
||||
2021-10-01,7.8
|
||||
2022-01-01,7.7
|
||||
2022-04-01,7.6
|
||||
2022-07-01,7.6
|
||||
2022-10-01,7.5
|
||||
2023-01-01,7.5
|
||||
2023-04-01,7.4
|
||||
2023-07-01,7.4
|
||||
2023-10-01,7.4
|
||||
2024-01-01,7.5
|
||||
2024-04-01,7.6
|
||||
2024-07-01,7.6
|
||||
2024-10-01,7.7
|
||||
2025-01-01,7.8
|
||||
2025-04-01,7.9
|
||||
2025-07-01,8.0
|
||||
2025-10-01,8.1
|
||||
|
98
agents/rio/posts/figures/data/gdp_annual.csv
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,98 @@
|
|||
observation_date,GDPA
|
||||
1929-01-01,104.556
|
||||
1930-01-01,92.160
|
||||
1931-01-01,77.391
|
||||
1932-01-01,59.522
|
||||
1933-01-01,57.154
|
||||
1934-01-01,66.800
|
||||
1935-01-01,74.241
|
||||
1936-01-01,84.830
|
||||
1937-01-01,93.003
|
||||
1938-01-01,87.352
|
||||
1939-01-01,93.437
|
||||
1940-01-01,102.899
|
||||
1941-01-01,129.309
|
||||
1942-01-01,165.952
|
||||
1943-01-01,203.084
|
||||
1944-01-01,224.447
|
||||
1945-01-01,228.007
|
||||
1946-01-01,227.535
|
||||
1947-01-01,249.616
|
||||
1948-01-01,274.468
|
||||
1949-01-01,272.475
|
||||
1950-01-01,299.827
|
||||
1951-01-01,346.914
|
||||
1952-01-01,367.341
|
||||
1953-01-01,389.218
|
||||
1954-01-01,390.549
|
||||
1955-01-01,425.478
|
||||
1956-01-01,449.353
|
||||
1957-01-01,474.039
|
||||
1958-01-01,481.229
|
||||
1959-01-01,521.654
|
||||
1960-01-01,542.382
|
||||
1961-01-01,562.209
|
||||
1962-01-01,603.922
|
||||
1963-01-01,637.450
|
||||
1964-01-01,684.460
|
||||
1965-01-01,742.289
|
||||
1966-01-01,813.414
|
||||
1967-01-01,859.959
|
||||
1968-01-01,940.651
|
||||
1969-01-01,1017.615
|
||||
1970-01-01,1073.303
|
||||
1971-01-01,1164.850
|
||||
1972-01-01,1279.110
|
||||
1973-01-01,1425.376
|
||||
1974-01-01,1545.243
|
||||
1975-01-01,1684.904
|
||||
1976-01-01,1873.412
|
||||
1977-01-01,2081.826
|
||||
1978-01-01,2351.599
|
||||
1979-01-01,2627.333
|
||||
1980-01-01,2857.307
|
||||
1981-01-01,3207.041
|
||||
1982-01-01,3343.789
|
||||
1983-01-01,3634.038
|
||||
1984-01-01,4037.613
|
||||
1985-01-01,4338.979
|
||||
1986-01-01,4579.631
|
||||
1987-01-01,4855.215
|
||||
1988-01-01,5236.438
|
||||
1989-01-01,5641.580
|
||||
1990-01-01,5963.144
|
||||
1991-01-01,6158.129
|
||||
1992-01-01,6520.327
|
||||
1993-01-01,6858.559
|
||||
1994-01-01,7287.236
|
||||
1995-01-01,7639.749
|
||||
1996-01-01,8073.122
|
||||
1997-01-01,8577.552
|
||||
1998-01-01,9062.817
|
||||
1999-01-01,9631.172
|
||||
2000-01-01,10250.952
|
||||
2001-01-01,10581.929
|
||||
2002-01-01,10929.108
|
||||
2003-01-01,11456.450
|
||||
2004-01-01,12217.196
|
||||
2005-01-01,13039.197
|
||||
2006-01-01,13815.583
|
||||
2007-01-01,14474.228
|
||||
2008-01-01,14769.862
|
||||
2009-01-01,14478.067
|
||||
2010-01-01,15048.971
|
||||
2011-01-01,15599.732
|
||||
2012-01-01,16253.970
|
||||
2013-01-01,16880.683
|
||||
2014-01-01,17608.138
|
||||
2015-01-01,18295.019
|
||||
2016-01-01,18804.913
|
||||
2017-01-01,19612.102
|
||||
2018-01-01,20656.516
|
||||
2019-01-01,21539.982
|
||||
2020-01-01,21375.281
|
||||
2021-01-01,23725.645
|
||||
2022-01-01,26054.614
|
||||
2023-01-01,27811.517
|
||||
2024-01-01,29298.013
|
||||
2025-01-01,30762.099
|
||||
|
98
agents/rio/posts/figures/data/total_corp_profits_annual.csv
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,98 @@
|
|||
observation_date,A053RC1A027NBEA
|
||||
1929-01-01,10.911
|
||||
1930-01-01,4.559
|
||||
1931-01-01,0.562
|
||||
1932-01-01,-1.346
|
||||
1933-01-01,1.832
|
||||
1934-01-01,3.215
|
||||
1935-01-01,4.371
|
||||
1936-01-01,7.107
|
||||
1937-01-01,7.629
|
||||
1938-01-01,4.603
|
||||
1939-01-01,7.778
|
||||
1940-01-01,10.636
|
||||
1941-01-01,18.762
|
||||
1942-01-01,22.476
|
||||
1943-01-01,25.846
|
||||
1944-01-01,24.786
|
||||
1945-01-01,20.393
|
||||
1946-01-01,25.563
|
||||
1947-01-01,32.636
|
||||
1948-01-01,36.502
|
||||
1949-01-01,30.042
|
||||
1950-01-01,43.781
|
||||
1951-01-01,45.380
|
||||
1952-01-01,41.282
|
||||
1953-01-01,43.149
|
||||
1954-01-01,40.793
|
||||
1955-01-01,51.441
|
||||
1956-01-01,52.625
|
||||
1957-01-01,51.194
|
||||
1958-01-01,45.030
|
||||
1959-01-01,55.954
|
||||
1960-01-01,53.853
|
||||
1961-01-01,53.904
|
||||
1962-01-01,59.204
|
||||
1963-01-01,64.416
|
||||
1964-01-01,71.446
|
||||
1965-01-01,83.110
|
||||
1966-01-01,90.384
|
||||
1967-01-01,87.604
|
||||
1968-01-01,97.906
|
||||
1969-01-01,96.652
|
||||
1970-01-01,86.263
|
||||
1971-01-01,99.271
|
||||
1972-01-01,115.885
|
||||
1973-01-01,146.131
|
||||
1974-01-01,161.527
|
||||
1975-01-01,154.773
|
||||
1976-01-01,196.214
|
||||
1977-01-01,228.493
|
||||
1978-01-01,270.410
|
||||
1979-01-01,301.378
|
||||
1980-01-01,282.324
|
||||
1981-01-01,275.025
|
||||
1982-01-01,230.226
|
||||
1983-01-01,262.023
|
||||
1984-01-01,297.627
|
||||
1985-01-01,288.239
|
||||
1986-01-01,265.385
|
||||
1987-01-01,335.620
|
||||
1988-01-01,390.144
|
||||
1989-01-01,393.825
|
||||
1990-01-01,405.653
|
||||
1991-01-01,425.470
|
||||
1992-01-01,466.680
|
||||
1993-01-01,512.095
|
||||
1994-01-01,611.021
|
||||
1995-01-01,695.729
|
||||
1996-01-01,752.815
|
||||
1997-01-01,817.028
|
||||
1998-01-01,754.794
|
||||
1999-01-01,797.712
|
||||
2000-01-01,786.422
|
||||
2001-01-01,717.519
|
||||
2002-01-01,806.875
|
||||
2003-01-01,990.584
|
||||
2004-01-01,1288.553
|
||||
2005-01-01,1706.219
|
||||
2006-01-01,1893.614
|
||||
2007-01-01,1814.158
|
||||
2008-01-01,1438.745
|
||||
2009-01-01,1505.664
|
||||
2010-01-01,1878.710
|
||||
2011-01-01,1870.195
|
||||
2012-01-01,2215.368
|
||||
2013-01-01,2220.165
|
||||
2014-01-01,2354.253
|
||||
2015-01-01,2237.545
|
||||
2016-01-01,2239.959
|
||||
2017-01-01,2295.118
|
||||
2018-01-01,2317.567
|
||||
2019-01-01,2375.483
|
||||
2020-01-01,2522.924
|
||||
2021-01-01,3366.804
|
||||
2022-01-01,3607.335
|
||||
2023-01-01,3855.237
|
||||
2024-01-01,4179.160
|
||||
2025-01-01,4213.978
|
||||
|
547
agents/rio/posts/figures/data/va_long.csv
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,547 @@
|
|||
<!DOCTYPE html>
|
||||
<html lang="en">
|
||||
<head>
|
||||
<meta charset="utf-8">
|
||||
<meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="IE=edge">
|
||||
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
|
||||
<title>Error - St. Louis Fed</title>
|
||||
<meta name="description" content="">
|
||||
<meta name="keywords" content="">
|
||||
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="/assets/bootstrap/dist/css/bootstrap.min.css">
|
||||
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="/css/home.min.css?1553087253">
|
||||
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="/assets/fontawesome-free/css/all.min.css">
|
||||
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="/assets/select2/dist/css/select2.min.css">
|
||||
<style>p {
|
||||
margin-bottom: 1.5em;
|
||||
}</style>
|
||||
</head>
|
||||
<body>
|
||||
<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.googleapis.com">
|
||||
<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.gstatic.com" crossorigin>
|
||||
<link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Roboto:ital,wght@0,100..900;1,100..900&display=swap" rel="stylesheet">
|
||||
<link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Roboto+Slab&display=swap" rel="stylesheet">
|
||||
<!--googleoff: snippet-->
|
||||
<a href="#content-container" class="skip-to">Skip to main content</a>
|
||||
<!--googleon: snippet-->
|
||||
<a id="top"></a>
|
||||
<!--Move content shift styles internal to boost performance scores-->
|
||||
<style>
|
||||
#zoom-and-share {
|
||||
position:relative;
|
||||
background-color: rgb(225, 233, 240);
|
||||
min-height: 437px;
|
||||
}
|
||||
</style>
|
||||
<div id="container">
|
||||
<header>
|
||||
<nav class="navbar navbar-expand-lg header-not-home py-0 EL-nonhomepage-header EL-header-and-subheader">
|
||||
<div id="hidden-user" class='hide'></div>
|
||||
<div id="action-modal"></div>
|
||||
<div class="col-12 d-none d-lg-block">
|
||||
<div class="col-12 d-none d-lg-flex">
|
||||
<a class="bank-logo-gtm" target="_blank" href="https://www.stlouisfed.org">
|
||||
<img class="research-logo-gtm" src="//fred.stlouisfed.org/images/Small_Stl_Fed_Logo.svg" alt="Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis">
|
||||
</a>
|
||||
<hr class=" hr-post-frb-stls-logo">
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="col-12 d-none d-lg-flex">
|
||||
<div class="col-3 align-content-center">
|
||||
<a class="fred-logo-gtm" target="_blank" href="//fred.stlouisfed.org">
|
||||
<img class="header-logo-eagle" src="//fred.stlouisfed.org/images/FRED_Logo_Header.svg" alt="FRED homepage">
|
||||
</a>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="col-9 d-none d-lg-flex align-content-center justify-content-end">
|
||||
<div class='input-group EL-header-search-container' id="search-container-header">
|
||||
<select id="head-search" class='EL-header-search'>
|
||||
<option></option>
|
||||
</select>
|
||||
|
||||
<button class="search-submit-select2" id="select2-nav-search-button" type="submit" aria-label="Submit Search">
|
||||
<i class="fa fa-search" title="Submit Search"></i>
|
||||
</button>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<nav id="blueheader-navbar-nav">
|
||||
<ul id="blueheader-navbar" class="nav float-end">
|
||||
<li class="blueheader-navbar-item center-content-vertically switch-products-gtm">
|
||||
<span id="switchprod-popover-container" class="switchprod-popover-container">
|
||||
|
||||
<button type="button" id="switchProd" data-toggle="popover" aria-controls="switch-prod-list"
|
||||
aria-haspopup="true" class="header-popover" aria-label="Toggle Explore Our Apps Menu">
|
||||
<img class="Switch-Products-gtm" src="//fred.stlouisfed.org/images/Waffle_Menu_off.svg" alt="Toggle Explore Our Apps Menu" />
|
||||
</button>
|
||||
</span>
|
||||
|
||||
<div id="switchprod-popover" class="hide">
|
||||
<!-- empty alt values handle older screen readers that don't handle WAI-ARIA roles. Both methods allow the screenreader to skip the image and not read the filename to the user. -->
|
||||
<h2 class="explore-products-desk">Explore Our Apps</h2>
|
||||
<hr>
|
||||
<ul id="switch-prod-list" class="list-group switch-products-list" role="menu" aria-labelledby="switchProduct">
|
||||
<li role="presentaion" id="ham-fred-dev" class="list-group-item product-fred">
|
||||
<a class="d-flex burger-fred-gtm" role="menuitem" href="//fred.stlouisfed.org">
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<img class="switch-icon-padding burger-fred-gtm" src="//fred.stlouisfed.org/images/FRED_Logo_for_Waffle.svg" alt="" role="presentation">
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<h3 class="burger-fred-gtm">FRED</h3>
|
||||
<p>Tools and resources to find and use economic data worldwide</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</a>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
<li role="presentaion" id="ham-fraser" class="list-group-item">
|
||||
<a rel="noopener" target="_blank" class="d-flex burger-fraser-gtm" role="menuitem" href="https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/">
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<img class="switch-icon-padding burger-fraser-gtm" src="//fred.stlouisfed.org/images/FRASER_Logo_for_Waffle.svg" alt="" role="presentation">
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<h3 class="burger-fraser-gtm">FRASER</h3>
|
||||
<p>U.S. financial, economic, and banking history</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</a>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
<li role="presentaion" id="ham-alfred" class="list-group-item">
|
||||
<a rel="noopener" target="_blank" class="d-flex burger-alfred-gtm" role="menuitem" href="//alfred.stlouisfed.org">
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<img class="switch-icon-padding burger-alfred-gtm" src="//fred.stlouisfed.org/images/ALFRED_Logo_for_Waffle.svg" alt="" role="presentation">
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<h3 class="burger-alfred-gtm">ALFRED</h3>
|
||||
<p>Vintages of economic data from specific dates in history</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</a>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
<li role="presentaion" id="ham-ecolowdown" class="list-group-item">
|
||||
<a rel="noopener" target="_blank" class="d-flex burger-econlowdown-gtm" role="menuitem" href="https://cassidi.stlouisfed.org/index">
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<img class="burger-econlowdown-gtm" src="//fred.stlouisfed.org/images/CASSIDI_Logo_for_Waffle.svg" alt="" role="presentation">
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<h3 class="burger-econlowdown-gtm">CASSIDI</h3>
|
||||
<p>View banking market concentrations and perform HHI analysis</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</a>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
</div> </li>
|
||||
<li class="blueheader-navbar-item center-content-vertically">
|
||||
<div class="hidden-xs" id="signin-wrap">
|
||||
<div id="user-nav" class="EL-my-account-link"></div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
</nav>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="col-12 d-lg-none">
|
||||
<div class="fred-logo-div col-6 align-content-center">
|
||||
<a class="fred-logo-gtm" href="//fred.stlouisfed.org/">
|
||||
<img class="header-logo" src="//fred.stlouisfed.org/images/FRED_Logo_Header_white_text.svg" alt="FRED homepage">
|
||||
</a>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class="blueheader-navbar center-content-vertically">
|
||||
<button type="button" id="search-btn-open" aria-controls="mobile-search-container"
|
||||
onclick="mobileSearchToggle('open')" aria-label="Open Search">
|
||||
<i class="fas fa-solid fa-search" title="Open Search"></i>
|
||||
</button>
|
||||
<button type="button" id="search-btn-close" class="hide" aria-controls="mobile-search-container"
|
||||
onclick="mobileSearchToggle('close')" aria-label="Close Search" disabled="true">
|
||||
<i class="fa-solid fa-x" title="Close Search"></i>
|
||||
</button>
|
||||
<button type="button" id="hamburger-btn-open" class="hamburger-gtm" aria-controls="hamburger-drawer"
|
||||
onclick="hamburgerMenuToggle('open')" aria-label="Open Mobile Menu">
|
||||
<i id="hamburger" class="fas fa-bars hamburger-header" title="Open Mobile Menu"></i>
|
||||
</button>
|
||||
<button type="button" id="hamburger-btn-close" class="close-btn burger-close-gtm hide" aria-controls="hamburger-drawer"
|
||||
onclick="hamburgerMenuToggle('close')" aria-label="Close Mobile Menu">
|
||||
<i class="fa-solid fa-x" title="Close Mobile Menu"></i>
|
||||
</button>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div id="notifications-container"></div>
|
||||
</nav>
|
||||
<div class="blueheader-navbar d-lg-none">
|
||||
<div id="mobile-search-container" class="hide col-12">
|
||||
<input type="hidden" id="mobile-search-input" class="search-text-input" placeholder="Search FRED Data..." disabled="disabled">
|
||||
<button type="submit" class="search-submit-select2" id="mobile-search-submit" disabled="disabled">
|
||||
<i class="fas fa-solid fa-search" title="Search"></i>
|
||||
</button>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<nav id="hamburger-drawer" class="hide">
|
||||
<div class="slide-content">
|
||||
<div id="hamburger-navigation">
|
||||
<div id="hamburger-home">
|
||||
<ul class="list-group flush-list hamburger-list col-12">
|
||||
<li class="list-group-item">
|
||||
<a class="burger-calendar-gtm" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar">Release Calendar</a>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
<li class="list-group-item hamburger-menu-item">
|
||||
<button type="button" class="burger-tools-gtm" onclick="toggleMenuNavigation('hamburger-tools', true)" aria-controls="hamburger-tools">Tools
|
||||
<i class="fas fa-solid fa-angle-down" title="Toggle FRED Tools Submenu"></i>
|
||||
</button>
|
||||
<ul id="hamburger-tools" role="menu" class="hide list-group hamburger-submenu-list col-12">
|
||||
<li role="presentation" class="list-group-item">
|
||||
<a role="menuitem" class="burger-fred-excel-add-in-gtm" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/fred-addin"> FRED Add-in for Excel</a>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
<li role="presentation" class="list-group-item">
|
||||
<a role="menuitem" class="burger-fred-api-gtm" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/docs/api/fred"> FRED API</a>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
<li role="presentation" class="list-group-item">
|
||||
<a role="menuitem" class="burger-fred-mobile-apps-gtm" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/fred-mobile"> FRED Mobile Apps</a>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
<li class="list-group-item">
|
||||
<a class="burger-news-gtm" href="https://news.research.stlouisfed.org/category/fred-announcements/">News</a>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
<li class="list-group-item">
|
||||
<a class="burger-blog-gtm" href="https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org">Blog</a>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
<li class="list-group-item hamburger-menu-item">
|
||||
<button type="button" class="burger-about-gtm" onclick="toggleMenuNavigation('hamburger-about-fred', true)" aria-controls="hamburger-about-fred">About
|
||||
<i class="fas fa-solid fa-angle-down" title="Toggle About FRED Submenu"></i>
|
||||
</button>
|
||||
<ul id="hamburger-about-fred" role="menu" class="hide list-group hamburger-submenu-list col-12">
|
||||
<li role="presentation" class="list-group-item">
|
||||
<a role="menuitem" class="burger-fred-about-gtm" href="https://fredhelp.stlouisfed.org/fred/about/about-fred/what-is-fred/"> What is FRED</a>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
<li role="presentation" class="list-group-item">
|
||||
<a role="menuitem" class="burger-tutorials-gtm" href="https://fredhelp.stlouisfed.org"> Tutorials</a>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
<li role="presentation" class="list-group-item">
|
||||
<a role="menuitem" class="burger-data-literacy-gtm" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/digital-badges/">
|
||||
Digital Badges
|
||||
</a>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
<li role="presentation" class="list-group-item">
|
||||
<a role="menuitem" class="burger-contact-us-gtm" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/"> Contact Us</a>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
<li class="list-group-item">
|
||||
<a class="burger-myaccount-gtm" href="https://fredaccount.stlouisfed.org">My Account</a>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
<li class="list-group-item hamburger-menu-item">
|
||||
<button type="button" class="burger-switch-gtm" onclick="toggleMenuNavigation('hamburger-products', true)" aria-controls="hamburger-products">
|
||||
Explore Our Apps
|
||||
<i class="fas fa-solid fa-angle-down" title="Toggle Apps Submenu"></i>
|
||||
</button>
|
||||
<div id="hamburger-products" class="hide">
|
||||
<!-- empty alt values handle older screen readers that don't handle WAI-ARIA roles. Both methods allow the screenreader to skip the image and not read the filename to the user. -->
|
||||
<h2 class="explore-products-desk">Explore Our Apps</h2>
|
||||
<hr>
|
||||
<ul id="switch-prod-list" class="list-group switch-products-list" role="menu" aria-labelledby="switchProduct">
|
||||
<li role="presentaion" id="ham-fred-dev" class="list-group-item product-fred">
|
||||
<a class="d-flex burger-fred-gtm" role="menuitem" href="//fred.stlouisfed.org">
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<img class="switch-icon-padding burger-fred-gtm" src="//fred.stlouisfed.org/images/FRED_Logo_for_Waffle.svg" alt="" role="presentation">
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<h3 class="burger-fred-gtm">FRED</h3>
|
||||
<p>Tools and resources to find and use economic data worldwide</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</a>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
<li role="presentaion" id="ham-fraser" class="list-group-item">
|
||||
<a rel="noopener" target="_blank" class="d-flex burger-fraser-gtm" role="menuitem" href="https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/">
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<img class="switch-icon-padding burger-fraser-gtm" src="//fred.stlouisfed.org/images/FRASER_Logo_for_Waffle.svg" alt="" role="presentation">
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<h3 class="burger-fraser-gtm">FRASER</h3>
|
||||
<p>U.S. financial, economic, and banking history</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</a>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
<li role="presentaion" id="ham-alfred" class="list-group-item">
|
||||
<a rel="noopener" target="_blank" class="d-flex burger-alfred-gtm" role="menuitem" href="//alfred.stlouisfed.org">
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<img class="switch-icon-padding burger-alfred-gtm" src="//fred.stlouisfed.org/images/ALFRED_Logo_for_Waffle.svg" alt="" role="presentation">
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<h3 class="burger-alfred-gtm">ALFRED</h3>
|
||||
<p>Vintages of economic data from specific dates in history</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</a>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
<li role="presentaion" id="ham-ecolowdown" class="list-group-item">
|
||||
<a rel="noopener" target="_blank" class="d-flex burger-econlowdown-gtm" role="menuitem" href="https://cassidi.stlouisfed.org/index">
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<img class="burger-econlowdown-gtm" src="//fred.stlouisfed.org/images/CASSIDI_Logo_for_Waffle.svg" alt="" role="presentation">
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<h3 class="burger-econlowdown-gtm">CASSIDI</h3>
|
||||
<p>View banking market concentrations and perform HHI analysis</p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</a>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
<li class="list-group-item">
|
||||
<a class="burger-stls-home-gtm" href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/">STL Fed Home Page</a>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</nav>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div class='navbar navbar-expand-lg sub-header EL-header-and-subheader'>
|
||||
<div class="container-fluid gx-0">
|
||||
<div class="col d-flex justify-content-end">
|
||||
<div class="container-fluid gx-0">
|
||||
|
||||
<hr class="col-12 hr-pre-subheader-nav d-none d-lg-block">
|
||||
<nav class="col-12 navbar EL-main-nav navbar-expand-sm d-none d-lg-flex" id="subheader-nav">
|
||||
<div class="navbar-collapse collapse d-flex justify-content-end">
|
||||
<ul id="subheader-navbar" class="nav float-end navbar-nav">
|
||||
<li class="nav-li-subheader">
|
||||
<a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar" class="nav-releasecal-subheader-gtm">Release Calendar</a>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
<li class="nav-li-subheader">
|
||||
<span class="sub-header-nav-tools-gtm header-popover fred-tools-container">
|
||||
<button type="button" id="fred-tools-link" class="align-icon header-popover tools-gtm"
|
||||
aria-haspopup="true" aria-controls="fred-tools-menu" data-toggle="popover"
|
||||
onclick="toggleMenuNavigation('fred-tools-popover')">Tools
|
||||
<i class="fas fa-angle-down" title="Toggle Tools Menu"></i>
|
||||
</button>
|
||||
</span>
|
||||
|
||||
<div id="fred-tools-popover" class="hide">
|
||||
<ul id="fred-tools-menu" role="menu" class="header-list-popover list-group flush-list">
|
||||
<li role="presentation" class="list-group-item">
|
||||
<a role="menuitem" class="homepage-nav-tools-fred-excel-addin-gtm" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/fred-addin">FRED Add-in for Excel</a>
|
||||
</li>
|
||||
<li role="presentation" class="list-group-item">
|
||||
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|
Can't render this file because it contains an unexpected character in line 2 and column 12.
|
85
agents/rio/posts/figures/data/vafi.csv
Normal file
|
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@ -0,0 +1,85 @@
|
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observation_date,VAPGDPF
|
||||
2005-01-01,4.3
|
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2005-04-01,4.2
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2005-07-01,4.2
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2005-10-01,4.2
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2006-01-01,4.2
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2006-04-01,4.2
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2006-07-01,4.2
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2006-10-01,4.2
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2007-01-01,4.2
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2007-04-01,4.2
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2007-07-01,4.2
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2007-10-01,4.2
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2008-01-01,4.2
|
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2008-04-01,4.2
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2008-07-01,4.3
|
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2008-10-01,4.4
|
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2009-01-01,4.5
|
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2009-04-01,4.6
|
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2009-07-01,4.6
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2009-10-01,4.6
|
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2010-01-01,4.7
|
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2010-04-01,4.7
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2010-07-01,4.6
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2010-10-01,4.6
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2011-01-01,4.6
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2011-04-01,4.6
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2011-07-01,4.6
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2011-10-01,4.5
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2012-01-01,4.5
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2012-04-01,4.4
|
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2012-07-01,4.4
|
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2012-10-01,4.3
|
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2013-01-01,4.3
|
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2013-04-01,4.2
|
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2013-07-01,4.1
|
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2013-10-01,4.1
|
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2014-01-01,4.2
|
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2014-04-01,4.1
|
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2014-07-01,4.1
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2014-10-01,4.0
|
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2015-01-01,4.0
|
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2015-04-01,4.0
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2015-07-01,4.0
|
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2015-10-01,4.0
|
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2016-01-01,4.0
|
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2016-04-01,4.0
|
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2016-07-01,4.0
|
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2016-10-01,4.0
|
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2017-01-01,3.9
|
||||
2017-04-01,3.9
|
||||
2017-07-01,3.9
|
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2017-10-01,3.9
|
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2018-01-01,3.9
|
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2018-04-01,3.9
|
||||
2018-07-01,3.9
|
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2018-10-01,3.9
|
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2019-01-01,3.8
|
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2019-04-01,3.8
|
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2019-07-01,3.8
|
||||
2019-10-01,3.8
|
||||
2020-01-01,3.9
|
||||
2020-04-01,4.3
|
||||
2020-07-01,4.0
|
||||
2020-10-01,4.0
|
||||
2021-01-01,3.9
|
||||
2021-04-01,3.8
|
||||
2021-07-01,3.8
|
||||
2021-10-01,3.7
|
||||
2022-01-01,3.7
|
||||
2022-04-01,3.6
|
||||
2022-07-01,3.6
|
||||
2022-10-01,3.6
|
||||
2023-01-01,3.6
|
||||
2023-04-01,3.6
|
||||
2023-07-01,3.6
|
||||
2023-10-01,3.6
|
||||
2024-01-01,3.6
|
||||
2024-04-01,3.6
|
||||
2024-07-01,3.6
|
||||
2024-10-01,3.6
|
||||
2025-01-01,3.7
|
||||
2025-04-01,3.6
|
||||
2025-07-01,3.6
|
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2025-10-01,3.5
|
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|
547
agents/rio/posts/figures/data/vafire.csv
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,547 @@
|
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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<p>Tools and resources to find and use economic data worldwide</p>
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<h3 class="burger-alfred-gtm">ALFRED</h3>
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