Merge branch 'main' into extract/2026-03-16-nvidia-vera-rubin-space-module-gtc2026

domains/space-development/Starship achieving routine operations at sub-100 dollars per kg is the single largest enabling condition for the entire space industrial economy.md

@@ -55,6 +55,12 @@ Starlab's entire architecture depends on single-flight Starship deployment in 20
 
 First V3 Starship static fire completed March 19, 2026 with 10 Raptor 3 engines on Booster 19. Test ended early due to GSE issue. 23 additional engines still require installation before full 33-engine qualification test. V3 represents the vehicle generation designed to achieve 100+ tonne LEO payload capacity, up from 20-100t on V2. Flight 12 target moved from April 9 to mid-to-late April 2026.
 
+### Additional Evidence (extend)
+*Source: [[2026-03-19-spacex-starship-b19-partial-static-fire-10-engines]] | Added: 2026-03-25*
+
+Starship V3 (Booster 19 + Ship 39) completed first-ever Raptor 3 static fire on March 16, 2026 with 10 engines. SpaceX confirmed 'successful startup on all installed Raptor 3 engines.' Test ended early due to ground-side issue (GSE at Pad 2), not engine failure. 23 additional Raptor 3 engines await installation for 33-engine full static fire. V3 targets 100+ tonne payload class with full Raptor 3 upgrade. April mid-to-late 2026 launch target maintained but dependent on completing 33-engine qualification.
+
+
 
 
 Relevant Notes:

domains/space-development/reusability without rapid turnaround and minimal refurbishment does not reduce launch costs as the Space Shuttle proved over 30 years.md

@@ -31,6 +31,12 @@ Blue Origin's New Glenn NG-3 mission demonstrates a ~3-month booster turnaround
 
 ---
 
+### Additional Evidence (extend)
+*Source: [[2026-03-19-spacex-starship-b19-partial-static-fire-10-engines]] | Added: 2026-03-25*
+
+V3 qualification timeline shows the challenge of validating new engine generations at scale. The 10-engine partial static fire (March 16) to 33-engine full static fire sequence demonstrates that even with successful engine startup, ground systems integration (GSE at new Pad 2) creates qualification bottlenecks. Each delay in V3 validation extends the timeline to operational reusability with Raptor 3.
+
+
 Relevant Notes:
 - [[launch cost reduction is the keystone variable that unlocks every downstream space industry at specific price thresholds]] — the Shuttle's failure to reduce costs delayed downstream industries by decades
 - [[the space launch cost trajectory is a phase transition not a gradual decline analogous to sail-to-steam in maritime transport]] — the Shuttle represents the failed pre-transition attempt at reusability; SpaceX represents the actual phase transition

inbox/archive/general/2026-03-21-nasaspaceflight-blue-origin-ng3-odc-ambitions.md

@@ -0,0 +1,65 @@
+---
+type: source
+title: "Blue Origin Ramps Up New Glenn Manufacturing, Unveils Orbital Data Center Ambitions"
+author: "NASASpaceFlight.com (staff)"
+url: https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2026/03/blue-new-glenn-manufacturing-data-ambitions/
+date: 2026-03-21
+domain: space-development
+secondary_domains: []
+format: article
+status: processed
+priority: medium
+tags: [blue-origin, new-glenn, NG-3, orbital-data-centers, manufacturing-ramp, pattern-2]
+---
+
+## Content
+
+NASASpaceFlight.com article from March 21, 2026 covering two simultaneous Blue Origin developments:
+
+**NG-3 Status (as of March 21):**
+- NG-3 carrying AST SpaceMobile BlueBird-7 is "imminent, in the coming weeks"
+- Second stage static fire test completed March 8: two engines peaked at 175,000 lbf thrust
+- Using "Never Tell Me The Odds" (reused NG-2 booster)
+- NET: "coming weeks" — target was late February, now sliding into late March / April
+
+**Manufacturing ramp:**
+- 7 New Glenn second stages in various production stages
+- 3rd booster with full BE-4 complement
+- Blue Origin is scaling manufacturing aggressively even as NG-3 hasn't launched
+
+**ODC ambitions:**
+- Article contextualizes Blue Origin's Project Sunrise (51,600 satellites, FCC March 19 filing) alongside manufacturing ramp
+- The article frames these as interconnected: manufacturing ramp enables the megaconstellation vision
+
+**Timeline context:**
+- NG-3 encapsulated: February 19, 2026
+- NG-3 static fire: March 8, 2026
+- Article date: March 21, 2026
+- Status: "imminent" (as of article date)
+
+## Agent Notes
+
+**Why this matters:** This is the definitive NASASpaceFlight document establishing that NG-3 had not launched as of March 21 — 7 sessions into "imminent" status. The simultaneous announcement of massive manufacturing ramp and orbital data center ambitions while NG-3 is delayed creates the most striking operational credibility contradiction in this research thread. A company claiming a 51,600-satellite constellation cannot execute booster reuse on its 3rd flight.
+
+**What surprised me:** The article frames both stories (NG-3 and Project Sunrise) together — which is either coincidence of coverage timing or Blue Origin attempting to shift narrative from operational delays to long-horizon vision. The 7 second stages in production is a substantial manufacturing commitment; if NG-3 launches successfully, this manufacturing investment suggests Blue Origin is serious about cadence. But the contradiction remains: manufacturing scale ≠ operational capability.
+
+**What I expected but didn't find:** A specific launch date for NG-3. "Coming weeks" is the same language used in prior sessions. The static fire was completed March 8, which is a meaningful milestone (this is the final technical gate before launch) — but two weeks have passed since the static fire and NG-3 still hasn't launched.
+
+**KB connections:**
+- Pattern 2 in research journal: institutional timeline slipping — Blue Origin is the strongest example; now 7 sessions without NG-3 launch after "imminent" status
+- [[SpaceX vertical integration across launch broadband and manufacturing creates compounding cost advantages that no competitor can replicate piecemeal]] — the juxtaposition makes the SpaceX flywheel claim more compelling; NG-3 delay vs Starlink launch cadence of 50+ launches/year
+
+**Extraction hints:**
+1. Not a primary claim-extraction source — this is a status update confirming Pattern 2 (operational timeline slipping). Use to update the NG-3 thread in the research journal.
+2. The manufacturing ramp data (7 second stages) IS worth noting as evidence of Blue Origin's commitment to New Glenn cadence — this is their bet on the same scale that Starlink used to drive SpaceX launch economics.
+3. The article connecting NG-3 + Project Sunrise framing is relevant to understanding Blue Origin's vertical integration strategy.
+
+**Context:** NASASpaceFlight.com is the most technically detailed space journalism outlet. Their status reports on launch vehicles are generally accurate and based on direct access to range/mission data.
+
+## Curator Notes
+
+PRIMARY CONNECTION: Not a strong KB claim connection — primarily updates Pattern 2 (institutional timeline slipping) and provides the NG-3 pre-launch status confirmation
+
+WHY ARCHIVED: Documents the NG-3 7th-session non-launch with a concrete milestone (static fire March 8, then delay), and provides the Blue Origin manufacturing ramp data point; also establishes the Project Sunrise / NG-3 juxtaposition in the same article
+
+EXTRACTION HINT: Use primarily for Pattern 2 confirmation, not primary claim extraction. The manufacturing ramp data (7 second stages) could support a claim about Blue Origin's scale ambitions vs operational execution gap.

inbox/archive/general/2026-03-xx-spacenews-orbital-datacenter-economics-focus.md

@@ -0,0 +1,71 @@
+---
+type: source
+title: "With attention on orbital data centers, the focus turns to economics"
+author: "SpaceNews (staff)"
+url: https://spacenews.com/with-attention-on-orbital-data-centers-the-focus-turns-to-economics/
+date: 2026-03-01
+domain: space-development
+secondary_domains: [energy, manufacturing]
+format: article
+status: processed
+priority: high
+tags: [orbital-data-centers, economics, launch-cost-threshold, gate-analysis, Starship, Google-Suncatcher]
+---
+
+## Content
+
+SpaceNews analysis of ODC economics as sector forms in early 2026:
+
+**Key economic data points:**
+- Current LEO launch cost: ~$3,600/kg (SpaceX Falcon 9)
+- Economic viability threshold: **$200/kg** (identified by Google's Suncatcher team)
+- Timeline to $200/kg: ~2035 if Starship scales to 180 launches/year
+- Current cost vs terrestrial: ODC costs ~3x MORE per watt than terrestrial data centers (Varda Space Industries analysis)
+- Starcloud's competing claim: 10-20x energy cost advantage (heavily dependent on Starship-era launch economics)
+
+**The Elon Musk forecast:**
+- At WEF: "it will be cheaper to build data centers in space within three years"
+- Depends on full Starship reusability in 2026 — so far unachieved
+
+**Structural economic analysis:**
+- Current ODC economics do not close at $3,600/kg
+- The threshold question is: at what launch cost does the orbital solar capacity factor advantage (~95% orbital vs ~24% terrestrial) and cooling advantage (passive radiative to deep space) overcome the launch cost premium?
+- Google's internal analysis (Suncatcher team): $200/kg is that threshold
+- At $200/kg with Starship, orbital solar + passive cooling creates cost structure that cannot be matched by terrestrial alternatives facing land/water/power constraints
+
+**What would change the timeline:**
+1. Faster Starship cadence ramp (each flight reduces cost through amortization)
+2. NVIDIA-class purpose-built space chips reducing hardware premium (reducing $/FLOP)
+3. Terrestrial data center costs rising faster than expected (AI demand outpacing grid capacity)
+
+**Context on independent analysis:**
+- Andrew McCalip analysis: "If you run the numbers honestly, the physics doesn't immediately kill it, but the economics are savage"
+- The $3,600/kg → $200/kg gap requires 18x launch cost reduction — achievable on Starship trajectory but requires years of cadence ramp
+
+## Agent Notes
+
+**Why this matters:** SpaceNews is the publication of record for commercial space. When SpaceNews says "focus turns to economics," it's a sector maturation signal — the field is moving from feasibility debate to cost debate. This is the same transition commercial stations went through in 2021-2022. The $200/kg threshold identification by Google's internal team is the most authoritative cost threshold data point in the public record.
+
+**What surprised me:** That Google publicly identified $200/kg as the viability threshold for their own Suncatcher project. This implies Google's internal models already say "not viable yet" — they're building for a 2035 horizon, not a near-term deployment. This is structurally identical to companies that file FCC spectrum allocations years before technology is ready.
+
+**What I expected but didn't find:** A tighter estimate of the current ODC cost structure per GPU-hour vs. AWS/Google Cloud. The Varda "3x more expensive" claim is macro (per watt) but doesn't translate to cost-per-FLOP or cost-per-token-generated comparison that hyperscalers use for procurement decisions.
+
+**KB connections:**
+- [[launch cost reduction is the keystone variable that unlocks every downstream space industry at specific price thresholds]] — The $200/kg is the ODC-specific activation threshold, extending the keystone variable claim with a new sector data point
+- [[Starship achieving routine operations at sub-100 dollars per kg is the single largest enabling condition for the entire space industrial economy]] — $100/kg Starship would beat the $200/kg ODC threshold by 2x; the enabling condition is confirmed from another direction
+- [[the space launch cost trajectory is a phase transition not a gradual decline analogous to sail-to-steam in maritime transport]] — ODC won't gradually emerge; it will snap into viability when $200/kg is crossed
+
+**Extraction hints:**
+1. "$200 per kg to LEO is the identified launch cost activation threshold for orbital data center economic viability, per Google Suncatcher team analysis — requiring 18x reduction from current $3,600/kg Falcon 9 costs and achievable ~2035 if Starship scales to 180 launches/year"
+2. "ODC currently costs 3x more per watt than terrestrial data centers at current launch costs — the economic case is not closed until the $200/kg threshold is crossed regardless of demand signal strength"
+3. These together form the strongest evidence for the two-gate model's launch cost gate applying to ODC specifically
+
+**Context:** SpaceNews is the industry trade publication that breaks commercial space news before general media. Analysis pieces like this reflect the current discourse among space industry professionals.
+
+## Curator Notes
+
+PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[launch cost reduction is the keystone variable that unlocks every downstream space industry at specific price thresholds]] — provides the ODC-specific cost threshold ($200/kg) that extends this claim to a new sector
+
+WHY ARCHIVED: Identifies the specific launch cost threshold ($200/kg) for ODC economic viability — this is the most precise cost threshold data point for any space sector in the KB; also confirms two-gate model (current demand signal insufficient to overcome cost gap)
+
+EXTRACTION HINT: Extract "$200/kg threshold" as a new data point extending the keystone variable claim. Also flag the "3x more expensive per watt" independent analysis as challenge evidence against Starcloud's 10-20x advantage claims.

inbox/archive/space-development/2026-03-19-spacex-starship-b19-partial-static-fire-10-engines.md

@@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
+---
+type: source
+title: "Starship Flight 12: Booster 19 10-Engine V3 Static Fire Completes, 33-Engine Test Next"
+author: "Tesla Oracle / SpaceX"
+url: https://www.teslaoracle.com/2026/03/19/starship-flight-12-booster-19s-10-engine-static-fire-ends-abruptly-spacex-prepares-for-a-33-engine-static-fire-test/
+date: 2026-03-19
+domain: space-development
+secondary_domains: []
+format: article
+status: processed
+priority: low
+tags: [starship, flight-12, booster-19, raptor-3, static-fire, V3, pattern-2]
+---
+
+## Content
+
+Starship Flight 12 V3 milestone update:
+
+**March 16, 2026 static fire:**
+- Booster 19 (V3 with Raptor 3 engines) ignited at Pad 2, Starbase
+- 10 engines fired (partial complement)
+- Ended early due to "ground-side issue" (not engine issue)
+- SpaceX confirmed "successful startup on all installed Raptor 3 engines"
+- First-ever Raptor 3 / V3 static fire
+
+**Status as of March 19:**
+- 23 additional Raptor 3 engines still need installation
+- Next milestone: 33-engine full static fire
+- April mid-to-late launch target maintained
+
+**Vehicle details:**
+- Booster 19 paired with Ship 39 (upper stage)
+- V3 upgrade: full Raptor 3 engine upgrade, 100-tonne payload class, higher performance
+- First flight of V3 configuration
+
+## Agent Notes
+
+**Why this matters:** Confirms Pattern 2 — V3 qualification is taking longer than announced. The 10-engine partial static fire means the 33-engine full static fire and April launch remain possible but tight. The ground-side issue (not engine) suggests Raptor 3 itself is not the problem — it's GSE (Ground Support Equipment) at the new Pad 2 facility.
+
+**What surprised me:** The "successful startup on all installed engines" result is unusually positive for a first test. SpaceX often accepts anomalies on first attempts. The GSE issue doesn't reflect on the Raptor 3 engine's readiness, only on Pad 2 qualification.
+
+**What I expected but didn't find:** A full 33-engine result. That's the milestone that matters for Flight 12 — the partial fire is a meaningful step but not the gate-clearing event.
+
+**KB connections:**
+- [[Starship achieving routine operations at sub-100 dollars per kg is the single largest enabling condition for the entire space industrial economy]] — V3 is the Starship generation that targets 100+ tonne payload capability; V3 qualification is on the path to this claim's realization
+- [[reusability without rapid turnaround and minimal refurbishment does not reduce launch costs as the Space Shuttle proved over 30 years]] — V3 must be validated quickly; each delay in qualification delays the cost reduction trajectory
+
+**Extraction hints:**
+1. Not a primary claim extraction source — status update
+2. If a broader Starship V3 / Flight 12 claim is being built, this confirms the milestone sequence is moving but slower than announced
+
+**Context:** Tesla Oracle tracks SpaceX missions closely and is generally reliable for milestone reporting. The 10-engine static fire on March 16 was the first V3 test milestone in the Flight 12 qualification sequence.
+
+## Curator Notes
+
+PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[Starship achieving routine operations at sub-100 dollars per kg is the single largest enabling condition for the entire space industrial economy]] — V3 qualification is a milestone toward the Starship routine operations claim
+
+WHY ARCHIVED: Pattern 2 confirmation — V3 static fire started but 33-engine full test still pending as of March 19; tracks the April launch target
+
+EXTRACTION HINT: Low extraction priority — primarily updates Starship V3 flight timeline. No new claims; use to update existing Starship claims if qualification progresses.

inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/2026-03-xx-spacenews-orbital-datacenter-economics-focus.json

@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
+{
+  "rejected_claims": [
+    {
+      "filename": "orbital-data-center-viability-requires-200-per-kg-launch-costs-creating-18x-reduction-threshold-from-current-falcon-9-pricing.md",
+      "issues": [
+        "missing_attribution_extractor",
+        "opsec_internal_deal_terms"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "filename": "orbital-data-centers-exhibit-two-gate-economics-where-demand-signal-strength-is-insufficient-to-overcome-cost-gap-until-launch-threshold-is-crossed.md",
+      "issues": [
+        "missing_attribution_extractor"
+      ]
+    }
+  ],
+  "validation_stats": {
+    "total": 2,
+    "kept": 0,
+    "fixed": 7,
+    "rejected": 2,
+    "fixes_applied": [
+      "orbital-data-center-viability-requires-200-per-kg-launch-costs-creating-18x-reduction-threshold-from-current-falcon-9-pricing.md:set_created:2026-03-25",
+      "orbital-data-center-viability-requires-200-per-kg-launch-costs-creating-18x-reduction-threshold-from-current-falcon-9-pricing.md:stripped_wiki_link:launch-cost-reduction-is-the-keystone-variable-that-unlocks-",
+      "orbital-data-center-viability-requires-200-per-kg-launch-costs-creating-18x-reduction-threshold-from-current-falcon-9-pricing.md:stripped_wiki_link:Starship-achieving-routine-operations-at-sub-100-dollars-per",
+      "orbital-data-center-viability-requires-200-per-kg-launch-costs-creating-18x-reduction-threshold-from-current-falcon-9-pricing.md:stripped_wiki_link:the-space-launch-cost-trajectory-is-a-phase-transition-not-a",
+      "orbital-data-centers-exhibit-two-gate-economics-where-demand-signal-strength-is-insufficient-to-overcome-cost-gap-until-launch-threshold-is-crossed.md:set_created:2026-03-25",
+      "orbital-data-centers-exhibit-two-gate-economics-where-demand-signal-strength-is-insufficient-to-overcome-cost-gap-until-launch-threshold-is-crossed.md:stripped_wiki_link:launch-cost-reduction-is-the-keystone-variable-that-unlocks-",
+      "orbital-data-centers-exhibit-two-gate-economics-where-demand-signal-strength-is-insufficient-to-overcome-cost-gap-until-launch-threshold-is-crossed.md:stripped_wiki_link:the-space-launch-cost-trajectory-is-a-phase-transition-not-a"
+    ],
+    "rejections": [
+      "orbital-data-center-viability-requires-200-per-kg-launch-costs-creating-18x-reduction-threshold-from-current-falcon-9-pricing.md:missing_attribution_extractor",
+      "orbital-data-center-viability-requires-200-per-kg-launch-costs-creating-18x-reduction-threshold-from-current-falcon-9-pricing.md:opsec_internal_deal_terms",
+      "orbital-data-centers-exhibit-two-gate-economics-where-demand-signal-strength-is-insufficient-to-overcome-cost-gap-until-launch-threshold-is-crossed.md:missing_attribution_extractor"
+    ]
+  },
+  "model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
+  "date": "2026-03-25"
+}

inbox/queue/2026-03-19-spacex-starship-b19-partial-static-fire-10-engines.md

@@ -7,9 +7,13 @@ date: 2026-03-19
 domain: space-development
 secondary_domains: []
 format: article
-status: unprocessed
+status: enrichment
 priority: low
 tags: [starship, flight-12, booster-19, raptor-3, static-fire, V3, pattern-2]
+processed_by: astra
+processed_date: 2026-03-25
+enrichments_applied: ["Starship achieving routine operations at sub-100 dollars per kg is the single largest enabling condition for the entire space industrial economy.md", "reusability without rapid turnaround and minimal refurbishment does not reduce launch costs as the Space Shuttle proved over 30 years.md"]
+extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
 ---
 
 ## Content
@@ -58,3 +62,14 @@ PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[Starship achieving routine operations at sub-100 dollars p
 WHY ARCHIVED: Pattern 2 confirmation — V3 static fire started but 33-engine full test still pending as of March 19; tracks the April launch target
 
 EXTRACTION HINT: Low extraction priority — primarily updates Starship V3 flight timeline. No new claims; use to update existing Starship claims if qualification progresses.
+
+
+## Key Facts
+- Starship Booster 19 is the first V3 configuration booster with Raptor 3 engines
+- Booster 19 paired with Ship 39 for Flight 12
+- March 16, 2026: 10-engine partial static fire at Pad 2, Starbase
+- Static fire ended early due to ground-side issue (GSE), not engine issue
+- 23 additional Raptor 3 engines still need installation on Booster 19
+- V3 upgrade targets 100+ tonne payload class
+- April mid-to-late 2026 launch target for Flight 12 maintained as of March 19
+- First-ever Raptor 3 engine static fire test

inbox/queue/2026-03-21-nasaspaceflight-blue-origin-ng3-odc-ambitions.md

@@ -7,9 +7,12 @@ date: 2026-03-21
 domain: space-development
 secondary_domains: []
 format: article
-status: unprocessed
+status: enrichment
 priority: medium
 tags: [blue-origin, new-glenn, NG-3, orbital-data-centers, manufacturing-ramp, pattern-2]
+processed_by: astra
+processed_date: 2026-03-25
+extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
 ---
 
 ## Content
@@ -63,3 +66,13 @@ PRIMARY CONNECTION: Not a strong KB claim connection — primarily updates Patte
 WHY ARCHIVED: Documents the NG-3 7th-session non-launch with a concrete milestone (static fire March 8, then delay), and provides the Blue Origin manufacturing ramp data point; also establishes the Project Sunrise / NG-3 juxtaposition in the same article
 
 EXTRACTION HINT: Use primarily for Pattern 2 confirmation, not primary claim extraction. The manufacturing ramp data (7 second stages) could support a claim about Blue Origin's scale ambitions vs operational execution gap.
+
+
+## Key Facts
+- NG-3 encapsulated February 19, 2026
+- NG-3 static fire completed March 8, 2026 with two BE-3U engines at 175,000 lbf thrust
+- NG-3 using 'Never Tell Me The Odds' reused booster from NG-2
+- Blue Origin has 7 New Glenn second stages in various production stages as of March 21, 2026
+- Blue Origin has 3rd booster with full BE-4 complement in production
+- Project Sunrise FCC filing March 19, 2026 for 51,600 satellites
+- NG-3 payload: AST SpaceMobile BlueBird-7

inbox/queue/2026-03-xx-spacenews-orbital-datacenter-economics-focus.md

@@ -7,9 +7,13 @@ date: 2026-03-01
 domain: space-development
 secondary_domains: [energy, manufacturing]
 format: article
-status: unprocessed
+status: null-result
 priority: high
 tags: [orbital-data-centers, economics, launch-cost-threshold, gate-analysis, Starship, Google-Suncatcher]
+processed_by: astra
+processed_date: 2026-03-25
+extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
+extraction_notes: "LLM returned 2 claims, 2 rejected by validator"
 ---
 
 ## Content
@@ -69,3 +73,15 @@ PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[launch cost reduction is the keystone variable that unlock
 WHY ARCHIVED: Identifies the specific launch cost threshold ($200/kg) for ODC economic viability — this is the most precise cost threshold data point for any space sector in the KB; also confirms two-gate model (current demand signal insufficient to overcome cost gap)
 
 EXTRACTION HINT: Extract "$200/kg threshold" as a new data point extending the keystone variable claim. Also flag the "3x more expensive per watt" independent analysis as challenge evidence against Starcloud's 10-20x advantage claims.
+
+
+## Key Facts
+- Current LEO launch cost via Falcon 9: ~$3,600/kg as of March 2026
+- Google Suncatcher team identified $200/kg as ODC economic viability threshold
+- Projected timeline to $200/kg: ~2035 if Starship scales to 180 launches/year
+- Varda Space Industries analysis: ODCs cost ~3x more per watt than terrestrial data centers at current launch costs
+- Starcloud competing claim: 10-20x energy cost advantage (dependent on Starship-era economics)
+- Elon Musk WEF forecast: ODCs cheaper than terrestrial within three years, dependent on 2026 full Starship reusability
+- Orbital solar capacity factor: ~95% vs ~24% terrestrial
+- Andrew McCalip analysis: 'physics doesn't immediately kill it, but the economics are savage'
+- $3,600/kg to $200/kg represents 18x launch cost reduction requirement