diff --git a/entities/internet-finance/kalshi.md b/entities/internet-finance/kalshi.md index 883e54c3..663ba32b 100644 --- a/entities/internet-finance/kalshi.md +++ b/entities/internet-finance/kalshi.md @@ -53,6 +53,7 @@ CFTC-designated contract market for event-based trading. USD-denominated, KYC-re - **2026-01-09** — Tennessee court ruled in favor of Kalshi in KalshiEx v. Orgel, finding impossibility of dual compliance and obstacle to federal objectives, creating circuit split with Maryland - **2026-03-19** — Ninth Circuit denied administrative stay motion, allowing Nevada to proceed with temporary restraining order that would exclude Kalshi from Nevada for at least two weeks pending preliminary injunction hearing - **2026-03-16** — Federal Reserve Board paper validates Kalshi prediction market accuracy, showing statistically significant improvement over Bloomberg consensus for CPI forecasting and perfect FOMC rate matching +- **2026-03-23** — CEO Tarek Mansour co-founded [[5cc-capital]] with Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan, creating dedicated VC fund for prediction market infrastructure ## Competitive Position - **Regulation-first**: Only CFTC-designated prediction market exchange. Institutional credibility. - **vs Polymarket**: Different market — Kalshi targets mainstream/institutional users who won't touch crypto. Polymarket targets crypto-native users who want permissionless market creation. Both grew massively post-2024 election. diff --git a/entities/internet-finance/polymarket.md b/entities/internet-finance/polymarket.md index 49ccc1df..337a97cd 100644 --- a/entities/internet-finance/polymarket.md +++ b/entities/internet-finance/polymarket.md @@ -49,6 +49,7 @@ Crypto-native prediction market platform on Polygon. Users trade binary outcome - **2026-01-XX** — Nevada Gaming Control Board sued Polymarket to halt sports-related contracts, arguing they constitute unlicensed gambling under state jurisdiction - **2026-01-XX** — Partnered with Palantir and TWG AI to build surveillance system detecting suspicious trading and manipulation in sports prediction markets - **2026-01-XX** — Targeting $20B valuation alongside Kalshi as prediction market duopoly emerges +- **2026-03-23** — CEO Shayne Coplan co-founded [[5cc-capital]] with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour, creating dedicated VC fund for prediction market infrastructure ## Competitive Position - **#1 by volume** — leads Kalshi on 30-day volume ($8.7B vs $6.8B) - **Crypto-native**: USDC on Polygon, non-custodial, permissionless market creation