astra: extract claims from 2026-05-05-nasa-neo-surveyor-takes-shape-45pct-phas-discovered-survey-status

- Source: inbox/queue/2026-05-05-nasa-neo-surveyor-takes-shape-45pct-phas-discovered-survey-status.md
- Domain: space-development
- Claims: 2, Entities: 0
- Enrichments: 0
- Extracted by: pipeline ingest (OpenRouter anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5)

Pentagon-Agent: Astra <PIPELINE>

domains/space-development/neo-survey-45-percent-complete-detection-gap-binding-constraint-planetary-defense.md

@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
+---
+type: claim
+domain: space-development
+description: Despite DART validating kinetic deflection, more than half of potentially hazardous asteroids remain undiscovered as of 2025, limiting defense effectiveness regardless of deflection technology readiness
+confidence: likely
+source: NASA CNEOS/JPL, congressional survey status 2025-2026
+created: 2026-05-09
+title: "NEO survey completion at 45% for 140m+ asteroids means detection gap not deflection capability is the binding constraint on planetary defense"
+agent: astra
+sourced_from: space-development/2026-05-05-nasa-neo-surveyor-takes-shape-45pct-phas-discovered-survey-status.md
+scope: structural
+sourcer: NASA Science / JPL / CNEOS
+related: ["dart-kinetic-deflection-validated-heliocentric-orbit-change-through-ejecta-momentum-amplification", "planetary-defense-addresses-detectable-asteroid-threats-not-grbs-supervolcanism-or-anthropogenic-catastrophe"]
+---
+
+# NEO survey completion at 45% for 140m+ asteroids means detection gap not deflection capability is the binding constraint on planetary defense
+
+As of 2025-2026, only 45% of the expected population of near-Earth objects (NEOs) larger than 140 meters have been discovered, despite the congressional mandate setting a 90% completion goal in 2005. This represents 20 years of effort reaching less than half the target. The survey gap creates a fundamental limitation on planetary defense effectiveness that is independent of deflection capability. DART successfully validated kinetic impactor technology in 2022, proving deflection works when asteroids are detected with adequate warning time. However, the detection bottleneck means that even with perfect deflection technology, 55% of potentially hazardous asteroids remain unknown and therefore undefendable. Ground-based surveys have hit diminishing returns, particularly for dark asteroids and comets that reflect little visible light. The Vera C. Rubin Observatory (operational 2025) will push detection to approximately 60%, and NEO Surveyor (launching 2027) aims to find two-thirds within its mission lifetime. Combined, these systems would reach ~76% coverage by 2032, with the full 90% congressional goal not achievable until approximately 2039. This 14-year gap to reach 90% coverage, and the permanent 10% remainder, represents the structural constraint on Earth-based planetary defense. The detection gap is the binding constraint because deflection requires decades of warning time for optimal trajectory modification, and you cannot deflect what you have not found.

domains/space-development/neo-surveyor-2027-launch-enables-90-percent-survey-completion-by-2039.md

@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
+---
+type: claim
+domain: space-development
+description: First space telescope designed specifically for planetary defense uses infrared detection to find dark asteroids invisible to ground surveys, enabling 12-year mission to reach congressional mandate
+confidence: experimental
+source: NASA NEO Surveyor program, Critical Design Review February 2025
+created: 2026-05-09
+title: "NEO Surveyor mission launching 2027 will achieve 90% survey completion for 140m+ asteroids by 2039 through infrared space-based detection"
+agent: astra
+sourced_from: space-development/2026-05-05-nasa-neo-surveyor-takes-shape-45pct-phas-discovered-survey-status.md
+scope: functional
+sourcer: NASA Science / JPL / CNEOS
+supports: ["neo-survey-45-percent-complete-detection-gap-binding-constraint-planetary-defense"]
+related: ["neo-survey-45-percent-complete-detection-gap-binding-constraint-planetary-defense"]
+---
+
+# NEO Surveyor mission launching 2027 will achieve 90% survey completion for 140m+ asteroids by 2039 through infrared space-based detection
+
+NEO Surveyor passed its Critical Design Review in February 2025 and is scheduled to launch September 2027 on a SpaceX Falcon 9. The mission is designed to find at least two-thirds (67%) of NEOs larger than 140 meters within its operational lifetime, with the congressional 90% goal achievable within the 12-year mission duration (approximately 2039). NEO Surveyor represents a fundamental capability shift from ground-based surveys because it operates in infrared wavelengths, enabling detection of dark asteroids and comets that reflect little visible light—the population that has caused ground-based surveys to plateau at 45% completion. The space-based infrared approach eliminates atmospheric interference and enables continuous survey operations without day/night or weather constraints. Combined with the Vera C. Rubin Observatory (which will push ground-based detection to ~60%), NEO Surveyor creates a complementary detection architecture reaching ~76% coverage within 5 years of launch (2032) and full 90% coverage by mission end (~2039). The mission timeline reveals that even with optimal execution, the survey gap remains a 14-year constraint from 2025 to 2039, and a permanent 10% gap remains beyond that threshold. The mission's success in passing Critical Design Review and entering hardware construction phase as of May 2026 indicates technical feasibility is validated, with schedule risk now the primary uncertainty.

inbox/archive/space-development/2026-05-05-nasa-neo-surveyor-takes-shape-45pct-phas-discovered-survey-status.md

@@ -7,10 +7,13 @@ date: 2026-05-05
 domain: space-development
 secondary_domains: []
 format: article
-status: unprocessed
+status: processed
+processed_by: astra
+processed_date: 2026-05-09
 priority: medium
 tags: [planetary-defense, neo-survey, neo-surveyor, asteroid, existential-risk, catalog-completion]
 intake_tier: research-task
+extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
 ---
 
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