From ad8191e8d9a3df41d11818dd090ce0a01fe28d4a Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: m3taversal Date: Thu, 5 Mar 2026 21:51:40 +0000 Subject: [PATCH] Auto: inbox/archive/2026-02-12-theiaresearch-2025-annual-letter.md | 1 file changed, 45 insertions(+) --- ...-02-12-theiaresearch-2025-annual-letter.md | 45 +++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 45 insertions(+) create mode 100644 inbox/archive/2026-02-12-theiaresearch-2025-annual-letter.md diff --git a/inbox/archive/2026-02-12-theiaresearch-2025-annual-letter.md b/inbox/archive/2026-02-12-theiaresearch-2025-annual-letter.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1e51844 --- /dev/null +++ b/inbox/archive/2026-02-12-theiaresearch-2025-annual-letter.md @@ -0,0 +1,45 @@ +--- +type: evidence +source: "https://x.com/TheiaResearch/status/2021897975446769777" +author: "@TheiaResearch (Theia Capital)" +date: 2026-02-12 +archived_by: rio +tags: [theia, investment-framework, kelly-criterion, bayesian, metadao-holding, AI-tools] +--- + +# Theia — 2025 Annual Letter (Feb 2026) + +Theia Capital's annual letter outlining their five-phase investment loop, AI integration, and portfolio commentary. + +## Five-phase investment loop + +1. **Moat Analysis:** Helmer's 7 Powers + Porter's 5 Forces for structural competitive advantages +2. **Calculating Multiples:** Fundamental Steady State P/E from first principles (not comps). "Return on Equity and long-term growth are primary drivers." +3. **Prediction:** Probability distributions ("fan of outcomes") not single price targets. Edge quantified using information theory. +4. **Sizing:** Kelly Criterion at 20% of full Kelly to optimize geometric compounding within concentration limits. +5. **Dynamic Updating:** Bayesian updating with Signposts and Bayes Factors. Counters confirmation bias. + +## Portfolio and AI + +- **MetaDAO holding:** Noted for "prioritizing investors over teams" — creating network effects and switching costs in token launches. Described as addressing "the Token Problem." +- **Maple holding:** Counter-positioned against traditional banks. Connected borrow-lend demand between regulated finance and DeFi. +- **AI integration:** LLMs as "the backbone of process improvements." Internal dashboards consolidating Discord, Notion, GitHub. Plans for "AI agents that can perform discrete tasks" (competitive analysis drafts). +- **Results:** "From asset selection and portfolio management, not hedging or leverage." No cash holdings. + +## Principles of Good Thinking + +Write, Specify, Quantify, Model, Predict, Bridge (to consensus), Listen, Disconfirm, Doubt, Endure. + +## Personnel + +- Noah Goldberg promoted to equity partner +- Thomas Bautista hired as investment analyst (formerly GSR) + +## Rio's assessment + +- Theia holds MetaDAO specifically for "prioritizing investors over teams" — this is the competitive moat that futarchy creates. Institutional validation. +- The five-phase loop (moat → multiples → prediction → Kelly sizing → Bayesian updating) maps to how Living Agents should operate — a rigorous framework for domain-expert investment entities +- MetaDAO as solving "the Token Problem" = addressing the lemon market / broken token dynamic +- "AI agents performing discrete tasks" from a fund that already uses LLMs as backbone — signals the market is moving toward agentic investment management +- Enriches markets-beat-votes belief — Theia IS the sophisticated market participant futarchy depends on for price discovery +- Enriches MetaDAO platform analysis — institutional holder validates ecosystem credibility