rio: mtnCapital entity + 2 decision records + 2 enrichments

- What: Entity profile for mtnCapital ($MTN), ICO decision record (~$5.76M
  raised), wind-down decision record (first futarchy liquidation), enrichments
  to conditional token arbitrage and unruggable ICO enforcement claims
- Why: mtnCapital is the FIRST MetaDAO liquidation (pre-Ranger ~6 months),
  confirmed via X research. Theia profited ~$35K via NAV arbitrage. Establishes
  the liquidation sequence: mtnCapital → Hurupay → Ranger across three
  different failure modes.
- Source: X research (@jimistgeil, @arihantbansal, @donovanchoy, @TheiaResearch,
  @nonstopTheo, @Tiendientu_com, @_Dean_Machine, @cryptof4ck)

Pentagon-Agent: Rio <5551F5AF-0C5C-429F-8915-1FE74A00E019>

decisions/internet-finance/mtncapital-metadao-ico.md

@@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
+---
+type: decision
+entity_type: decision_market
+name: "mtnCapital: MetaDAO ICO"
+domain: internet-finance
+status: passed
+parent_entity: "[[metadao]]"
+platform: metadao
+proposal_date: 2025-08
+resolution_date: 2025-08
+category: fundraise
+summary: "~$5.76M USDC raised via MetaDAO permissioned ICO for futarchy-governed investment fund"
+key_metrics:
+  raise_target: "unknown"
+  amount_raised: "$5,760,000"
+  token_symbol: "MTN"
+tracked_by: rio
+created: 2026-03-20
+---
+
+# mtnCapital: MetaDAO ICO
+
+## Summary
+mtnCapital raised approximately $5.76M USDC through MetaDAO's permissioned launchpad. All funds were locked in the DAO treasury under futarchy governance. The project launched at approximately $3.3M FDV.
+
+## Market Data
+- **Outcome:** Passed (fundraise completed)
+- **Amount Raised:** ~$5,760,000 USDC
+- **Launch FDV:** Uncertain (one source cites $3.3M but this implies ~57% discount to NAV — needs verification)
+- **Token:** $MTN
+- **Duration:** ~August 2025
+
+## Significance
+One of the earlier MetaDAO permissioned launches, mtnCapital demonstrated that the futarchy launchpad could raise significant capital ($5.76M) for an investment fund structure. The subsequent liquidation (see [[mtncapital-wind-down]]) became the first test of the unruggable ICO enforcement mechanism.
+
+## Relationship to KB
+- [[mtncapital]] — parent entity
+- [[MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale]] — platform context

decisions/internet-finance/mtncapital-wind-down.md

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+---
+type: decision
+entity_type: decision_market
+name: "mtnCapital: Wind Down Operations"
+domain: internet-finance
+status: passed
+parent_entity: "[[mtncapital]]"
+platform: metadao
+proposal_date: 2025-09
+resolution_date: 2025-09
+category: liquidation
+summary: "First MetaDAO futarchy-governed liquidation — community voted to wind down operations and return capital at ~$0.604/MTN redemption rate"
+tracked_by: rio
+created: 2026-03-20
+---
+
+# mtnCapital: Wind Down Operations
+
+## Summary
+The mtnCapital community voted via futarchy to wind down the fund's operations and return treasury capital to token holders. This was the **first futarchy-governed liquidation** on MetaDAO, preceding the Ranger Finance liquidation by approximately 6 months.
+
+## Market Data
+- **Outcome:** Passed (wind-down approved)
+- **Redemption rate:** ~$0.604 per $MTN
+- **Duration:** ~September 2025
+
+## Evidence: NAV Arbitrage in Practice
+
+Theia Research executed the textbook NAV arbitrage strategy:
+- Bought 297K $MTN at average price of ~$0.485 (below redemption value)
+- Voted for wind-down via futarchy
+- Redeemed at ~$0.604 per token
+- Profit: ~$35K
+
+This demonstrates the mechanism described in [[decision markets make majority theft unprofitable through conditional token arbitrage]] working in reverse — the same arbitrage dynamics that prevent value extraction ALSO create a price floor at NAV. When token price < redemption value, rational actors buy and vote to liquidate, guaranteeing profit and enforcing the floor.
+
+@arihantbansal confirmed the mechanism works at small scale too: traded $100 in the pass market of the wind-down proposal, redeemed for $101 — "only possible with futarchy."
+
+## Manipulation Concerns
+
+@_Dean_Machine (Nov 2025) flagged potential exploitation: "someone has been taking advantage, going as far back as the mtnCapital raise, trading, and redemption." The specifics are unclear, but the concern suggests the raise → trade → redeem cycle may have been gamed by sophisticated participants who understood the NAV floor before others did.
+
+This is relevant to [[futarchy is manipulation-resistant because attack attempts create profitable opportunities for defenders]] — the Theia arbitrage was profitable precisely because it exploited a price inefficiency. Whether that constitutes "manipulation" or "informed arbitrage correcting a mispricing" depends on whether Theia had material non-public information about the wind-down timing.
+
+## Significance
+
+The mtnCapital wind-down establishes three precedents:
+
+1. **Orderly liquidation is possible.** Capital was returned to investors through the futarchy mechanism without legal proceedings, court orders, or team absconding. The mechanism worked as designed.
+
+2. **NAV floor is real.** The arbitrage opportunity (buy below NAV → vote to liquidate → redeem at NAV) was executed profitably, confirming the theoretical price floor.
+
+3. **Liquidation sequence.** mtnCapital (orderly wind-down, ~Sep 2025) → Hurupay (failed to reach minimum, Feb 2026) → Ranger Finance (contested liquidation with misrepresentation allegations, Mar 2026) — three different failure modes, all handled through the futarchy mechanism.
+
+## Relationship to KB
+- [[mtncapital]] — parent entity
+- [[decision markets make majority theft unprofitable through conditional token arbitrage]] — the NAV arbitrage is empirical confirmation
+- [[futarchy-governed liquidation is the enforcement mechanism that makes unruggable ICOs credible because investors can force full treasury return when teams materially misrepresent]] — first live test
+- [[metadao-vc-discount-rejection]] — another case where futarchy prevented value extraction (rejection vs liquidation)
+- [[futarchy is manipulation-resistant because attack attempts create profitable opportunities for defenders]] — manipulation concerns test this claim

domains/internet-finance/decision markets make majority theft unprofitable through conditional token arbitrage.md

@@ -18,6 +18,14 @@ This mechanism proof connects to [[optimal governance requires mixing mechanisms
 
 **Bidirectional protection (Mar 2026 evidence).** The Ranger Finance liquidation demonstrates that the mechanism works not only to protect minorities from majority theft, but also to protect investors from team extraction. Tokenholders alleged material misrepresentation ($5B volume/$2M revenue claimed vs $2B/$500K actual), and the conditional market priced liquidation at 97% pass with $581K in volume. The team had no viable path to prevent liquidation through market manipulation — the same arbitrage dynamics that protect against majority raids also prevent teams from blocking investor-initiated liquidation. Since [[futarchy-governed liquidation is the enforcement mechanism that makes unruggable ICOs credible because investors can force full treasury return when teams materially misrepresent]], the conditional token arbitrage mechanism is the enforcement layer for the entire "unruggable ICO" thesis.
 
+
+### Additional Evidence (confirm)
+*Source: X research — @jimistgeil, @arihantbansal, @donovanchoy, @nonstopTheo | Added: 2026-03-20*
+
+**NAV floor arbitrage (mtnCapital, ~Sep 2025).** The mtnCapital wind-down is the FIRST futarchy-governed liquidation, predating Ranger by ~6 months. When the fund failed to deploy capital successfully, the futarchy mechanism enabled orderly wind-down with capital returned at ~$0.604/MTN. Theia Research executed the textbook NAV arbitrage: bought 297K $MTN at avg $0.485 (below redemption value), voted for wind-down, redeemed at $0.604 — profiting ~$35K. This confirms the conditional token arbitrage mechanism creates a price floor at NAV: when token price < redemption value, rational actors buy and vote to liquidate, guaranteeing profit and enforcing the floor. The mechanism works in both directions — preventing extraction (Ben Hawkins, VC discount rejection) AND creating orderly liquidation when projects fail (mtnCapital, Ranger).
+
+The full liquidation sequence now shows three failure modes all handled through futarchy: mtnCapital (orderly wind-down), Hurupay (failed to reach ICO minimum, refund), Ranger Finance (contested liquidation with misrepresentation allegations). See [[mtncapital-wind-down]] for full decision record.
+
 ---
 
 Relevant Notes:

domains/internet-finance/futarchy-governed liquidation is the enforcement mechanism that makes unruggable ICOs credible because investors can force full treasury return when teams materially misrepresent.md

@@ -52,10 +52,17 @@ Critically, the proposal nullifies a prior 90-day restriction on buybacks/liquid
 
 MycoRealms implements unruggable ICO structure with automatic refund mechanism: if $125,000 target not reached within 72 hours, full refunds execute automatically. Post-raise, team has zero direct treasury access — operates on $10,000 monthly allowance with all other expenditures requiring futarchy approval. This creates credible commitment: team cannot rug because they cannot access treasury directly, and investors can force liquidation through futarchy proposals if team materially misrepresents (e.g., fails to publish operational data to Arweave as promised, diverts funds from stated use). Transparency requirement (all invoices, expenses, harvest records, photos published to Arweave) creates verifiable baseline for detecting misrepresentation.
 
+
+### Additional Evidence (confirm)
+*Source: X research — @jimistgeil, @arihantbansal, @donovanchoy, @TheiaResearch | Added: 2026-03-20*
+
+**mtnCapital: the FIRST liquidation, predating Ranger by ~6 months.** mtnCapital raised ~$5.76M via MetaDAO ICO (~Aug 2025) and was wound down via futarchy governance vote (~Sep 2025). This is a different failure mode than Ranger — no misrepresentation allegations, just failure to deploy capital successfully. The enforcement mechanism handled both cleanly: orderly wind-down, capital returned at ~$0.604/MTN redemption. Theia Research profited ~$35K via NAV arbitrage (bought at $0.485, redeemed at $0.604). This changes the claim's framing: the description focuses on Ranger as "the first production test" but mtnCapital was actually first. The claim remains valid — the enforcement mechanism works — but should acknowledge the fuller evidence sequence: mtnCapital (orderly wind-down) → Hurupay (failed minimum, refund) → Ranger (contested misrepresentation liquidation). Confidence should be reconsidered for upgrade from `experimental` given two independent liquidation cases plus one refund case. See [[mtncapital-wind-down]] for full decision record.
+
 ---
 
 Relevant Notes:
 - [[decision markets make majority theft unprofitable through conditional token arbitrage]] — Ranger shows the mechanism works bidirectionally, protecting investors from team extraction
+- [[mtncapital-wind-down]] — first liquidation case, orderly wind-down with NAV arbitrage
 - [[futarchy solves trustless joint ownership not just better decision-making]] — strongest real-world evidence: investors exercising ownership rights to liquidate without courts
 - [[MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale]] — Ranger liquidation is the "unruggable" mechanism operating in production
 - [[futarchy is manipulation-resistant because attack attempts create profitable opportunities for defenders]] — the team had no viable path to prevent liquidation through market manipulation

entities/internet-finance/mtncapital.md

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+---
+type: entity
+entity_type: fund
+name: "mtnCapital"
+domain: internet-finance
+status: liquidated
+tracked_by: rio
+created: 2026-03-20
+last_updated: 2026-03-20
+tags: [metadao, futarchy, ico, liquidation, fund]
+token_symbol: "$MTN"
+parent: "[[metadao]]"
+launch_date: 2025-08
+resolution_date: 2025-09
+amount_raised: "$5,760,000"
+built_on: ["Solana"]
+---
+
+# mtnCapital
+
+## Overview
+
+mtnCapital was a futarchy-governed investment fund launched through MetaDAO's permissioned launchpad. It raised approximately $5.76M USDC, all locked in the DAO treasury. The fund was subsequently wound down via futarchy governance vote, making it the **first MetaDAO project to be liquidated** — predating the Ranger Finance liquidation. Token holders redeemed $MTN at approximately $0.604 per token.
+
+## Current State
+
+- **Status:** Liquidated (wind-down completed via futarchy vote, ~September 2025)
+- **Token:** $MTN
+- **Raise:** ~$5.76M USDC (all locked in DAO treasury)
+- **Launch FDV:** Uncertain — one source (@cryptof4ck) cites $3.3M, but this would imply ~57% discount to NAV at launch which is implausible unless significant token allocation sat outside treasury (team/LP). Needs verification.
+- **Redemption price:** ~$0.604 per $MTN
+- **Post-liquidation:** Token still trades with minimal volume (~$79/day as of Nov 2025)
+
+## Timeline
+
+- **~2025-08** — Launched via MetaDAO permissioned ICO, raised ~$5.76M USDC
+- **2025-08 to 2025-09** — Trading period. Launched at ~$3.3M FDV. At one point trading above NAV.
+- **~2025-09** — Futarchy governance proposal to wind down operations passed. Capital returned to token holders at ~$0.604/token redemption rate.
+- **2025-09** — Theia Research bought $MTN at avg $0.485, redeemed at $0.604, profiting ~$35K via NAV arbitrage
+- **2025-11** — @_Dean_Machine flagged potential manipulation concerns "going as far back as the mtnCapital raise, trading, and redemption"
+- **2026-01** — @AK47ven listed mtnCapital among 5/8 MetaDAO launches still green since launch (likely referring to pre-liquidation returns)
+- **2026-03** — @donovanchoy cited mtnCapital as first in the liquidation sequence: "mtnCapital was liquidated and returned capital, then Hurupay, now (possibly) Ranger"
+
+## Significance
+
+mtnCapital is the **first empirical test of the unruggable ICO enforcement mechanism**. The futarchy governance system approved a wind-down, capital was returned to investors, and the process was orderly. This predates the Ranger Finance liquidation and establishes that:
+
+1. **Futarchy-governed liquidation works in practice** — the mechanism moved from theoretical to empirically validated
+2. **NAV arbitrage creates a price floor** — Theia bought below redemption value and profited from the liquidation vote, confirming the arbitrage mechanism described in [[decision markets make majority theft unprofitable through conditional token arbitrage]]
+3. **The sequence matters** — mtnCapital (orderly) → Hurupay (refund, didn't reach minimum) → Ranger (contested liquidation with misrepresentation allegations) shows the enforcement mechanism operating across different failure modes
+
+## Open Questions
+
+- What specifically triggered the wind-down? The fund raised $5.76M but apparently failed to deploy capital successfully. Details on what went wrong are sparse.
+- @_Dean_Machine's manipulation concerns — was there exploitative trading around the raise/redemption cycle? If so, this is relevant to the mechanism's robustness.
+- Was this a Cayman SPC SegCo or Marshall Islands path?
+
+## Relationship to KB
+- [[metadao]] — parent entity, permissioned launchpad
+- [[decision markets make majority theft unprofitable through conditional token arbitrage]] — mtnCapital liquidation is the first empirical confirmation of the NAV arbitrage mechanism
+- [[futarchy-governed liquidation is the enforcement mechanism that makes unruggable ICOs credible because investors can force full treasury return when teams materially misrepresent]] — first live test of this enforcement mechanism
+- [[MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale]] — launch #3 or #4 in the sequence
+
+---
+
+Relevant Entities:
+- [[metadao]] — platform
+- [[theia-research]] — arbitrage participant
+- [[ranger-finance]] — second liquidation case (different failure mode)
+
+Topics:
+- [[internet finance and decision markets]]