From b6cbf8618ec90a8fa30c361c2a84747cfb3285dd Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Teleo Agents Date: Sun, 22 Mar 2026 22:16:44 +0000 Subject: [PATCH] extract: 2026-03-22-fed-research-kalshi-cpi-prediction-accuracy Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70> --- ...-fed-research-kalshi-cpi-prediction-accuracy.md | 14 +++++++++++++- 1 file changed, 13 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/inbox/queue/2026-03-22-fed-research-kalshi-cpi-prediction-accuracy.md b/inbox/queue/2026-03-22-fed-research-kalshi-cpi-prediction-accuracy.md index 2cd0e072..9e7330a2 100644 --- a/inbox/queue/2026-03-22-fed-research-kalshi-cpi-prediction-accuracy.md +++ b/inbox/queue/2026-03-22-fed-research-kalshi-cpi-prediction-accuracy.md @@ -7,9 +7,12 @@ date: 2026-03-16 domain: internet-finance secondary_domains: [] format: article -status: unprocessed +status: enrichment priority: medium tags: [prediction-markets, kalshi, federal-reserve, cpi, accuracy, academic, markets-beat-consensus, macro-forecasting] +processed_by: rio +processed_date: 2026-03-22 +extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5" --- ## Content @@ -56,3 +59,12 @@ A Federal Reserve Board paper (authors: Diercks, Katz, Wright) published March 2 PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[speculative markets aggregate information more accurately than expert consensus or voting systems]] WHY ARCHIVED: Federal Reserve institutional validation of real-money prediction market accuracy; complements the Mellers academic literature and rounds out the evidence base for Belief #1's grounding claims EXTRACTION HINT: Archive as supporting evidence for the prediction markets accuracy claim, scoped to "structured macroeconomic event prediction." The FOMC-day perfect match finding is the most archivable specific claim. Note it doesn't address financial selection. + + +## Key Facts +- Federal Reserve Board published FEDS paper by Diercks, Katz, Wright in March 2026 evaluating Kalshi prediction market accuracy +- Kalshi markets showed statistically significant improvement over Bloomberg consensus for headline CPI prediction +- Kalshi markets achieved parity with Bloomberg consensus for core CPI and unemployment forecasting +- Kalshi perfectly matched realized fed funds rate on the day before every FOMC meeting since 2022 +- Fed paper published same day as CFTC ANPRM (March 16, 2026) +- Good Judgment Project superforecasters reportedly outperformed futures markets for Fed policy predictions by 66% (FT, July 2024)