diff --git a/inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/2026-03-18-he3-market-price-supply-scarcity.json b/inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/2026-03-18-he3-market-price-supply-scarcity.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..30ce5a76 --- /dev/null +++ b/inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/2026-03-18-he3-market-price-supply-scarcity.json @@ -0,0 +1,34 @@ +{ + "rejected_claims": [ + { + "filename": "helium-3-supply-structure-creates-tritium-breeding-competitive-risk.md", + "issues": [ + "missing_attribution_extractor" + ] + }, + { + "filename": "constrained-supply-market-projections-underestimate-addressable-market-when-new-supply-unlocks-latent-demand.md", + "issues": [ + "missing_attribution_extractor" + ] + } + ], + "validation_stats": { + "total": 2, + "kept": 0, + "fixed": 4, + "rejected": 2, + "fixes_applied": [ + "helium-3-supply-structure-creates-tritium-breeding-competitive-risk.md:set_created:2026-03-18", + "helium-3-supply-structure-creates-tritium-breeding-competitive-risk.md:stripped_wiki_link:falling-launch-costs-paradoxically-both-enable-and-threaten-", + "constrained-supply-market-projections-underestimate-addressable-market-when-new-supply-unlocks-latent-demand.md:set_created:2026-03-18", + "constrained-supply-market-projections-underestimate-addressable-market-when-new-supply-unlocks-latent-demand.md:stripped_wiki_link:launch-cost-reduction-is-the-keystone-variable-that-unlocks-" + ], + "rejections": [ + "helium-3-supply-structure-creates-tritium-breeding-competitive-risk.md:missing_attribution_extractor", + "constrained-supply-market-projections-underestimate-addressable-market-when-new-supply-unlocks-latent-demand.md:missing_attribution_extractor" + ] + }, + "model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5", + "date": "2026-03-18" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/inbox/queue/2026-03-18-he3-market-price-supply-scarcity.md b/inbox/queue/2026-03-18-he3-market-price-supply-scarcity.md index f77499f0..ee98265b 100644 --- a/inbox/queue/2026-03-18-he3-market-price-supply-scarcity.md +++ b/inbox/queue/2026-03-18-he3-market-price-supply-scarcity.md @@ -7,9 +7,13 @@ date: 2025-12-01 domain: space-development secondary_domains: [ai-alignment] format: analysis -status: unprocessed +status: null-result priority: medium tags: [helium-3, market-analysis, supply-scarcity, quantum-computing, pricing, tritium] +processed_by: astra +processed_date: 2026-03-18 +extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5" +extraction_notes: "LLM returned 2 claims, 2 rejected by validator" --- ## Content @@ -63,3 +67,15 @@ Market data on helium-3 supply, pricing, and demand trajectory: PRIMARY CONNECTION: water is the strategic keystone resource of the cislunar economy — He-3 supply constraints suggest it may be the keystone early commercial resource even if water is the keystone in-space resource WHY ARCHIVED: Market data needed to calibrate He-3 extraction economics; the tritium production risk is underanalyzed and worth flagging EXTRACTION HINT: Focus on the structural supply facts (tritium decay = primary source, no scalable alternative) and the competitive risk from tritium breeding programs. Don't just repeat price numbers — the structural analysis is more durable. + + +## Key Facts +- Global He-3 production: low tens of kilograms per year worldwide (2024) +- Primary He-3 source: tritium decay in aging nuclear weapons stockpiles (US and Russia) +- Current He-3 pricing range: $2,000-$20,000+ per liter (gas phase at standard conditions) +- He-3 price surge: 400%+ over recent years +- He-3 market size 2024: ~$11.36M global +- He-3 market projection 2033: $202.24M (CAGR 37.6%) +- Geological He-3 confirmed at Ramsay Project (Gold Hydrogen, Australia, October 2024) +- Interlune pursuing AFWERX contract for terrestrial He-3 extraction via cryogenic distillation +- He-3 demand drivers: dilution refrigerators (quantum computing below 0.3K), neutron detection, nuclear fusion research, medical imaging (lung MRI), scientific research (NMR, low-temperature physics)