rio: extract from 2026-03-03-futardio-launch-salmon-wallet.md
- Source: inbox/archive/2026-03-03-futardio-launch-salmon-wallet.md - Domain: internet-finance - Extracted by: headless extraction cron (worker 6) Pentagon-Agent: Rio <HEADLESS>
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@ -82,6 +82,12 @@ Futardio cult launch (2026-03-03 to 2026-03-04) demonstrates MetaDAO's platform
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(challenge) Areal's failed Futardio launch ($11,654 raised of $50K target, REFUNDING status) demonstrates that futarchy-governed fundraising does not guarantee capital formation success. The mechanism provides credible exit guarantees through market-governed liquidation and governance quality through conditional markets, but market participants still evaluate project fundamentals and team credibility. Futarchy reduces rug risk but does not eliminate market skepticism of unproven business models or early-stage teams.
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### Additional Evidence (extend)
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*Source: [[2026-03-03-futardio-launch-salmon-wallet]] | Added: 2026-03-12 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5*
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MetaDAO's scope has expanded beyond pure capital allocation vehicles to include operational software infrastructure projects. Salmon Wallet represents the first observed futarchy-governed wallet infrastructure project on the platform, demonstrating MetaDAO's positioning as a general-purpose fundraising platform rather than being limited to investment DAOs or meme coins. However, the failed raise (26% of target) suggests that different project categories may have different success rates on the platform.
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---
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Relevant Notes:
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@ -34,6 +34,12 @@ MycoRealms implementation reveals operational friction points: monthly $10,000 a
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Optimism futarchy achieved 430 active forecasters and 88.6% first-time governance participants by using play money, demonstrating that removing capital requirements can dramatically lower participation barriers. However, this came at the cost of prediction accuracy (8x overshoot on magnitude estimates), revealing a new friction: the play-money vs real-money tradeoff. Play money enables permissionless participation but sacrifices calibration; real money provides calibration but creates regulatory and capital barriers. This suggests futarchy adoption faces a structural dilemma between accessibility and accuracy that liquidity requirements alone don't capture. The tradeoff is not merely about quantity of liquidity but the fundamental difference between incentive structures that attract participants vs incentive structures that produce accurate predictions.
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### Additional Evidence (confirm)
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*Source: [[2026-03-03-futardio-launch-salmon-wallet]] | Added: 2026-03-12 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5*
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Salmon Wallet's failed futarchy raise on MetaDAO provides empirical evidence of adoption friction for operational software projects. Despite being an established project (active since 2022, listed on Solana wallet adapter, $122.5K prior funding), the raise only achieved $97,535 of $375,000 target (26% of goal) before refunding. This demonstrates that futarchy-governed fundraising faces significant barriers even for legitimate projects with track records, particularly when the use case is operational software infrastructure rather than pure capital allocation or meme coins.
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---
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Relevant Notes:
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@ -37,6 +37,12 @@ The contrast with Ranger is instructive. Ranger's liquidation shows futarchy han
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- The subcommittee model introduces trusted roles that could recentralize power over time, undermining the trustless property that makes futarchy valuable
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- Since [[Ooki DAO proved that DAOs without legal wrappers face general partnership liability making entity structure a prerequisite for any futarchy-governed vehicle]], some of this scaffolding is legally required rather than a failure of market mechanisms
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### Additional Evidence (extend)
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*Source: [[2026-03-03-futardio-launch-salmon-wallet]] | Added: 2026-03-12 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5*
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Salmon Wallet's proposed governance structure illustrates the operational complexity that futarchy-governed projects must address. The project planned a $25,000 monthly burn rate across team ($18,300/month), infrastructure ($4,200/month), growth ($2,000/month), and governance/legal/contingency ($500/month). This budget breakdown reveals that even a futarchy-governed wallet project requires traditional operational categories and cost structures, with only 2% allocated to governance mechanisms themselves. The failure to raise capital suggests that investors may question whether futarchy governance adds sufficient value to justify the additional complexity for operational software projects.
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---
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Relevant Notes:
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@ -46,6 +46,7 @@ MetaDAO's token launch platform. Implements "unruggable ICOs" — permissionless
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- **2026-03-07** — Areal DAO launch: $50K target, raised $11,654 (23.3%), REFUNDING status by 2026-03-08 — first documented failed futarchy-governed fundraise on platform
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- **2026-03-04** — [[seekervault]] fundraise launched targeting $75,000, closed next day with only $1,186 (1.6% of target) in refunding status
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- **2026-03-03** — [[salmon-wallet-futardio-fundraise]] failed: First wallet infrastructure project on platform raised $97,535/$375,000 (26%) before refunding, demonstrating adoption friction for operational software vs capital allocation vehicles
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## Competitive Position
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- **Unique mechanism**: Only launch platform with futarchy-governed accountability and treasury return guarantees
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- **vs pump.fun**: pump.fun is memecoin launch (zero accountability, pure speculation). Futardio is ownership coin launch (futarchy governance, treasury enforcement). Different categories despite both being "launch platforms."
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---
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type: entity
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entity_type: decision_market
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name: "Salmon Wallet: Futardio Fundraise"
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domain: internet-finance
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status: failed
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parent_entity: "[[salmon-wallet]]"
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platform: "futardio"
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proposal_url: "https://www.futard.io/launch/Aakx1gdDoNQYqiv5uoqdXx56mGr6AbZh73SWpxHrk2qF"
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proposal_date: 2026-03-03
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resolution_date: 2026-03-04
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category: "fundraise"
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summary: "Open-source wallet infrastructure project seeking $375K through futarchy-governed raise, failed at 26% of target"
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key_metrics:
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raise_target: "$375,000"
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total_committed: "$97,535"
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oversubscription_ratio: 0.26
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token_ticker: "SAL"
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planned_runway: "12 months"
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monthly_burn: "$25,000"
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tracked_by: rio
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created: 2026-03-11
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---
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# Salmon Wallet: Futardio Fundraise
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## Summary
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Salmon Wallet attempted to raise $375,000 through MetaDAO's futarchy platform to fund 12 months of wallet infrastructure development. The raise achieved only $97,535 (26% of target) before closing in refunding status after one day. This represents the first observed futarchy-governed fundraise for wallet infrastructure software, as opposed to investment vehicles or meme coins.
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## Market Data
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- **Outcome:** Failed (refunding)
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- **Target:** $375,000
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- **Raised:** $97,535 (26%)
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- **Duration:** 1 day (2026-03-03 to 2026-03-04)
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- **Token:** SAL (Salmon Token)
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- **Launch address:** Aakx1gdDoNQYqiv5uoqdXx56mGr6AbZh73SWpxHrk2qF
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## Significance
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First empirical evidence of futarchy adoption friction for operational software infrastructure projects. Despite legitimate credentials (active since 2022, Solana wallet adapter listing, $122.5K prior funding), the project failed to attract sufficient capital through futarchy governance. The 26% funding rate suggests that futarchy-governed raises may face different success rates depending on project category, with operational software facing higher barriers than pure capital allocation vehicles.
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The proposed budget breakdown revealed traditional operational structure: 73% team, 17% infrastructure, 8% growth, 2% governance/legal. This suggests that even futarchy-governed projects require conventional operational scaffolding, with governance mechanisms representing a small fraction of total costs.
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## Relationship to KB
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- Confirms [[futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity and liquidity requirements]]
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- Extends [[MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale]] with operational software use case
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- Illustrates [[futarchy-governed DAOs converge on traditional corporate governance scaffolding for treasury operations because market mechanisms alone cannot provide operational security and legal compliance]]
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37
entities/internet-finance/salmon-wallet.md
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entities/internet-finance/salmon-wallet.md
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---
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type: entity
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entity_type: company
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name: "Salmon Wallet"
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domain: internet-finance
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status: active
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founded: 2022
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key_metrics:
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prior_funding: "$122,500"
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bootstrap_funding: "$80,000"
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grants_received: "$42,500"
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futarchy_raise_target: "$375,000"
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futarchy_raise_actual: "$97,535"
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planned_monthly_burn: "$25,000"
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platforms:
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- Solana
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- Bitcoin
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tracked_by: rio
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created: 2026-03-11
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---
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# Salmon Wallet
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Open-source, self-custodial cryptocurrency wallet built primarily on Solana with Bitcoin support. Active since 2022, listed on Solana wallet adapter. Attempted futarchy-governed fundraise on MetaDAO platform in March 2026 that failed to reach minimum target.
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## Timeline
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- **2022** — Project founded, listed on Solana wallet adapter
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- **2022** — Received $80K bootstrap funding
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- **2022-2024** — Received $42.5K in grants (Serum: $2.5K, Eclipse: $40K)
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- **2026-03-03** — Launched futarchy fundraise on futard.io seeking $375K
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- **2026-03-04** — Fundraise closed in refunding status with $97,535 raised (26% of target)
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## Relationship to KB
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- First observed wallet infrastructure project attempting futarchy-governed fundraise
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- Demonstrates [[futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity and liquidity requirements]]
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- Case study for [[MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale]]
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- Illustrates operational complexity in [[futarchy-governed DAOs converge on traditional corporate governance scaffolding for treasury operations because market mechanisms alone cannot provide operational security and legal compliance]]
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@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ url: "https://www.futard.io/launch/Aakx1gdDoNQYqiv5uoqdXx56mGr6AbZh73SWpxHrk2qF"
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date: 2026-03-03
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domain: internet-finance
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format: data
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status: unprocessed
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status: processed
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tags: [futardio, metadao, futarchy, solana]
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event_type: launch
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processed_by: rio
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@ -14,6 +14,11 @@ processed_date: 2026-03-11
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enrichments_applied: ["MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale.md", "futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity and liquidity requirements.md", "futarchy-governed DAOs converge on traditional corporate governance scaffolding for treasury operations because market mechanisms alone cannot provide operational security and legal compliance.md"]
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extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
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extraction_notes: "First observed futarchy-governed wallet infrastructure project on MetaDAO platform. Failed raise provides empirical data on futarchy adoption friction for operational software vs pure capital allocation vehicles. Enriches existing claims about MetaDAO scope expansion, adoption barriers, and operational governance challenges."
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processed_by: rio
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processed_date: 2026-03-11
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enrichments_applied: ["futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity and liquidity requirements.md", "MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale.md", "futarchy-governed DAOs converge on traditional corporate governance scaffolding for treasury operations because market mechanisms alone cannot provide operational security and legal compliance.md"]
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extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
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extraction_notes: "First observed futarchy-governed wallet infrastructure project on MetaDAO platform. Failed raise provides empirical data on futarchy adoption friction for operational software vs pure capital allocation vehicles. No new claims warranted—all insights enrich existing claims about MetaDAO scope expansion, adoption barriers, and operational governance challenges. Created entity pages for Salmon Wallet (company) and the fundraise (decision_market) as this represents a significant data point for futarchy adoption patterns."
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---
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## Launch Details
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@ -215,3 +220,14 @@ Secondary:
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- Launch address: Aakx1gdDoNQYqiv5uoqdXx56mGr6AbZh73SWpxHrk2qF
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- Operates own Solana validator for transparent revenue
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- Listed on Solana wallet adapter since 2022
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## Key Facts
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- Salmon Wallet active since 2022, listed on Solana wallet adapter
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- Prior funding: $80K bootstrap (2022) + $42.5K grants (Serum $2.5K, Eclipse $40K)
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- Futarchy raise target: $375,000 for 12-month runway
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- Actual raise: $97,535 (26% of target)
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- Planned monthly burn: $25K (73% team, 17% infrastructure, 8% growth, 2% governance/legal)
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- Token: SAL (Salmon Token)
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- Launch address: Aakx1gdDoNQYqiv5uoqdXx56mGr6AbZh73SWpxHrk2qF
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- Status: Refunding (closed 2026-03-04)
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