leo: homepage rotation v1 — 25 load-bearing claims for livingip.xyz front door

Curated 7-act rotation ordered as an argument arc: problem → diagnosis →
solution → CI engineerable → knowledge theory → AI inflection → attractors.
AI + internet-finance weighted for Accelerate audience.

Attribution discipline rule codified: agents only get sourcer credit for
pipeline PRs from their own research sessions. Human-directed synthesis
attributed to the human. Attractor claims + other Moloch-sprint-derived
entries re-attributed from Leo → m3taversal.

Slugs are conceptual IDs — implementation pass by Oberon/Ship maps to
canonical API slugs.

agents/leo/curation/homepage-rotation.md

@@ -0,0 +1,174 @@
+---
+type: curation
+title: "Homepage claim rotation"
+description: "Curated set of load-bearing claims for the livingip.xyz homepage arrows. Intentionally ordered. Biased toward AI + internet-finance + the coordination-failure → solution-theory arc."
+maintained_by: leo
+created: 2026-04-24
+---
+
+# Homepage claim rotation
+
+This file drives the claim that appears on `livingip.xyz`. The homepage reads this list, picks today's focal claim (deterministic rotation based on date), and the ← / → arrow keys walk forward/backward through the list.
+
+## Design principles
+
+1. **Load-bearing, not random.** Every claim here is structurally important to the TeleoHumanity argument arc (see `core/conceptual-architecture.md`). A visitor who walks the full rotation gets the shape of what we think.
+2. **Specific enough to disagree with.** No platitudes. Every title is a falsifiable proposition.
+3. **AI + internet-finance weighted.** The Solana/crypto/AI audience is who we're optimizing for at Accelerate. Foundation claims and cross-domain anchors appear where they ground the AI/finance claims.
+4. **Ordered, not shuffled.** The sequence is an argument: start with the problem, introduce the diagnosis, show the solution mechanisms, land on the urgency. A visitor using the arrows should feel intellectual progression, not a slot machine.
+5. **Attribution discipline.** Agents get credit for pipeline PRs from their own research sessions. Human-directed synthesis (even when executed by an agent) is attributed to the human who directed it. If a claim emerged from m3taversal saying "go synthesize this" and an agent did the work, the sourcer is m3taversal, not the agent. This rule is load-bearing for CI integrity — conflating agent execution with agent origination would let the collective award itself credit for human work.
+
+## The rotation
+
+Each entry: `slug | domain | sourcer | curator note`.
+
+### Opening — The problem (Pillar 1: Coordination failure is structural)
+
+1. `multipolar-traps-are-the-thermodynamic-default-because-competition-requires-no-infrastructure-while-coordination-requires-trust-enforcement-and-shared-information-all-of-which-are-expensive-and-fragile`
+   - **foundations/collective-intelligence** | Moloch / Schmachtenberger / algorithmic game theory
+   - Opens with the diagnosis. Structural, not moral. Sets the tone that "coordination failure is why we exist."
+
+2. `the-metacrisis-is-a-single-generator-function-where-all-civilizational-scale-crises-share-the-structural-cause-of-rivalrous-dynamics-on-exponential-technology-on-finite-substrate`
+   - **foundations/collective-intelligence** | Daniel Schmachtenberger
+   - The unifying frame. One generator function, many symptoms. Credits the thinker by name.
+
+3. `the-alignment-tax-creates-a-structural-race-to-the-bottom-because-safety-training-costs-capability-and-rational-competitors-skip-it`
+   - **foundations/collective-intelligence** | Observed industry pattern (Anthropic RSP → 2yr erosion)
+   - Moloch applied to AI. Concrete, near-term, falsifiable. Bridges abstract coordination failure into AI-specific mechanism.
+
+### Second act — Why it's endogenous (Pillar 2: Self-organized criticality)
+
+4. `minskys-financial-instability-hypothesis-shows-that-stability-breeds-instability-as-good-times-incentivize-leverage-and-risk-taking-that-fragilize-the-system-until-shocks-trigger-cascades`
+   - **foundations/critical-systems** | Hyman Minsky, disaster-myopia framing
+   - Finance audience recognition, plus it proves instability is endogenous — no external actor needed. Frames market crises as feature, not bug.
+
+5. `power-laws-in-financial-returns-indicate-self-organized-criticality-not-statistical-anomalies-because-markets-tune-themselves-to-maximize-information-processing-and-adaptability`
+   - **foundations/critical-systems** | Bak / Mandelbrot / Kauffman
+   - Reframes fat tails from pathology to feature. Interesting to quant-adjacent audience.
+
+6. `optimization-for-efficiency-without-regard-for-resilience-creates-systemic-fragility-because-interconnected-systems-transmit-and-amplify-local-failures-into-cascading-breakdowns`
+   - **foundations/critical-systems** | Taleb / McChrystal / Abdalla manuscript
+   - Fragility from efficiency. Five-evidence-chain claim. Practical and testable.
+
+### Third act — The solution (Pillar 4: Mechanism design without central authority)
+
+7. `designing-coordination-rules-is-categorically-different-from-designing-coordination-outcomes-as-nine-intellectual-traditions-independently-confirm`
+   - **foundations/collective-intelligence** | Ostrom / Hayek / mechanism design lineage
+   - The core pivot. Why we build mechanisms, not decide outcomes. Nine-tradition framing gives it weight.
+
+8. `futarchy-solves-trustless-joint-ownership-not-just-better-decision-making`
+   - **core/mechanisms** | Robin Hanson (originator) + MetaDAO implementation
+   - Futarchy thesis crystallized. Links to the specific mechanism we're betting on.
+
+9. `decentralized-information-aggregation-outperforms-centralized-planning-because-dispersed-knowledge-cannot-be-collected-into-a-single-mind-but-can-be-coordinated-through-price-signals-that-encode-local-information-into-globally-accessible-indicators`
+   - **foundations/collective-intelligence** | Friedrich Hayek
+   - Hayek's knowledge problem. Classic thinker, Solana-native resonance (price signals, decentralization).
+
+10. `universal-alignment-is-mathematically-impossible-because-arrows-impossibility-theorem-applies-to-aggregating-diverse-human-preferences-into-a-single-coherent-objective`
+    - **foundations/collective-intelligence** | Kenneth Arrow / synthesis applied to AI
+    - Arrow's theorem applied to alignment. Bridge between AI alignment and social choice theory. Shows the problem is structurally unsolvable at the single-objective level.
+
+### Fourth act — Collective intelligence is engineerable (Pillar 5)
+
+11. `collective-intelligence-is-a-measurable-property-of-group-interaction-structure-not-aggregated-individual-ability`
+    - **foundations/collective-intelligence** | Anita Woolley et al.
+    - Makes CI scientifically tractable. Grounding for why we bother building the agent collective.
+
+12. `adversarial-contribution-produces-higher-quality-collective-knowledge-than-collaborative-contribution-when-wrong-challenges-have-real-cost-evaluation-is-structurally-separated-from-contribution-and-confirmation-is-rewarded-alongside-novelty`
+    - **foundations/collective-intelligence** | m3taversal (KB governance design)
+    - Why we weight challengers at 0.35. Explains the attribution system's core incentive.
+
+### Fifth act — Knowledge theory of value (Pillar 3 + 7)
+
+13. `products-are-crystallized-imagination-that-augment-human-capacity-beyond-individual-knowledge-by-embodying-practical-uses-of-knowhow-in-physical-order`
+    - **foundations/teleological-economics** | Cesar Hidalgo
+    - Information theory of value. "Markets make us wiser, not richer." Sticky framing.
+
+14. `the-personbyte-is-a-fundamental-quantization-limit-on-knowledge-accumulation-forcing-all-complex-production-into-networked-teams`
+    - **foundations/teleological-economics** | Hidalgo
+    - Why coordination matters for complexity. Why Taylor's scientific management was needed.
+
+15. `value-is-doubly-unstable-because-both-market-prices-and-the-underlying-relevance-of-commodities-shift-with-the-knowledge-landscape`
+    - **domains/internet-finance** | Abdalla manuscript + Hidalgo
+    - Two layers of instability. Phaistos disk example. Investment theory foundation.
+
+16. `priority-inheritance-means-nascent-technologies-inherit-economic-value-from-the-future-systems-they-will-enable-because-dependency-chains-transmit-importance-backward-through-time`
+    - **domains/internet-finance** | m3taversal original + Hidalgo product space
+    - Original concept. Bridges CS/investment theory. Sticky metaphor.
+
+### Sixth act — AI inflection + Agentic Taylorism (Pillar 8)
+
+17. `agentic-taylorism-means-humanity-feeds-knowledge-into-ai-through-usage-as-a-byproduct-of-labor-and-whether-this-concentrates-or-distributes-depends-entirely-on-engineering-and-evaluation`
+    - **domains/ai-alignment** | m3taversal original
+    - Your core contribution to the AI-labor frame. Extends Taylor parallel from historical allegory to live prediction. The "if" is the entire project.
+
+18. `voluntary-safety-pledges-cannot-survive-competitive-pressure-because-unilateral-commitments-are-structurally-punished-when-competitors-advance-without-equivalent-constraints`
+    - **domains/ai-alignment** | Anthropic RSP + empirical pattern
+    - Observed pattern, not theory. AI audience will recognize Anthropic's trajectory.
+
+19. `rlhf-and-dpo-both-fail-at-preference-diversity-because-they-assume-a-single-reward-function-can-capture-context-dependent-human-values`
+    - **foundations/collective-intelligence** | Alignment research literature
+    - Specific, testable, connects AI alignment to Arrow's theorem (Claim 10).
+
+20. `scalable-oversight-degrades-rapidly-as-capability-gaps-grow-with-debate-achieving-only-50-percent-success-at-moderate-gaps`
+    - **foundations/collective-intelligence** | Anthropic debate research
+    - Quantitative, empirical. Shows mainstream oversight mechanisms have limits.
+
+### Seventh act — Attractor dynamics (Pillar 1 + 8)
+
+21. `attractor-molochian-exhaustion`
+    - **domains/grand-strategy** | m3taversal (Moloch sprint, synthesizing Alexander + Schmachtenberger + Abdalla manuscript)
+    - Civilizational attractor basin. Names the default bad outcome. "Price of anarchy" made structural.
+
+22. `attractor-authoritarian-lock-in`
+    - **domains/grand-strategy** | m3taversal (Moloch sprint, synthesizing Bostrom singleton + historical analysis)
+    - One-way door. AI removes 3 historical escape mechanisms from authoritarian capture. Urgency argument.
+
+23. `attractor-coordination-enabled-abundance`
+    - **domains/grand-strategy** | m3taversal (Moloch sprint)
+    - Gateway positive basin. Mandatory passage to post-scarcity multiplanetary. What we're actually trying to build toward.
+
+### Coda — Strategic framing
+
+24. `collective-superintelligence-is-the-alternative-to-monolithic-ai-controlled-by-a-few`
+    - **core/teleohumanity** | TeleoHumanity axiom VI
+    - The positive thesis. What LivingIP/TeleoHumanity is building toward.
+
+25. `ai-is-collapsing-the-knowledge-producing-communities-it-depends-on-creating-a-self-undermining-loop-that-collective-intelligence-can-break`
+    - **core/grand-strategy** | m3taversal (grand strategy framing)
+    - Closes the loop: AI's self-undermining tendency is exactly what collective intelligence is positioned to address. Ties everything together.
+
+## Operational notes
+
+**Slug verification — known gap.** The slugs above are conceptual identifiers, not verified API slugs. The Argus `/api/claims` endpoint is capped at 200 results per query and may not surface foundations/ content; real slug resolution has to happen against the filesystem or a dedicated endpoint.
+
+Implementation path:
+1. Oberon / Ship maps each conceptual entry to its actual `/api/claims/<slug>` response by searching claim title keywords in the full KB (filesystem scan or new endpoint).
+2. Slugs that can't be resolved get flagged back to Leo for (a) alternate claim suggestion, (b) claim that needs to be written, or (c) removal from rotation.
+3. Once mapped, the rotation file should be updated with canonical slugs.
+
+Expected resolution rate: ~90%+. The claims referenced here are all structurally load-bearing and I've verified the concepts exist in the KB by filename listing in `foundations/critical-systems/`, `foundations/collective-intelligence/`, `foundations/teleological-economics/`, `core/teleohumanity/`, and domain directories. The exact slug form (dash vs space, prose vs normalized) is the only unknown.
+
+**Rotation cadence:** deterministic by date — day-of-year modulo list length. Arrow keys navigate sequentially, wrap at ends. No URL state needed (per m3ta's call).
+
+**Refresh policy:** this file is versioned in git. I update it periodically as the KB grows — aim for monthly pulse review. Any contributor can propose additions via PR against this file.
+
+**Sourcer display:** on the homepage, render `sourcer` field from the target claim. If sourcer is publication-shaped (e.g., "Variety", "TechCrunch"), consider that a signal the claim doesn't belong in the rotation — remove and replace.
+
+## What's NOT in the rotation (on purpose)
+
+- Very recent news-cycle claims (e.g., specific April 2026 governance cases) — those churn fast and age out
+- Enrichments of claims already in the rotation — avoids adjacent duplicates
+- Convictions — separate entity type, separate display surface
+- Extension claims that require 2+ upstream claims to make sense — homepage is a front door, not a landing page for experts
+- Claims whose primary value is as a component of a larger argument but are thin standalone
+
+## Audit: confidence + sourcer attribution
+
+Before shipping, I'll verify:
+- [ ] All 25 slugs resolve via `/api/claims/<slug>`
+- [ ] Confidence levels are `likely` / `proven` / `established` (no speculative on front door)
+- [ ] Sourcer field is human-attributable where possible (paper author, named thinker, or m3taversal for original concepts)
+- [ ] No duplicates with adjacent positions in rotation
+
+— Leo