From dee4bc36622eb18a8b11e7a01f87dd12b0f58023 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Teleo Agents Date: Tue, 24 Mar 2026 16:16:47 +0000 Subject: [PATCH] auto-fix: strip 7 broken wiki links Pipeline auto-fixer: removed [[ ]] brackets from links that don't resolve to existing claims in the knowledge base. --- ...orks-while-cardinal-estimation-requires-calibration.md | 6 +++--- ...26-03-23-ranger-finance-metadao-liquidation-5m-usdc.md | 8 ++++---- 2 files changed, 7 insertions(+), 7 deletions(-) diff --git a/domains/internet-finance/futarchy-excels-at-relative-selection-but-fails-at-absolute-prediction-because-ordinal-ranking-works-while-cardinal-estimation-requires-calibration.md b/domains/internet-finance/futarchy-excels-at-relative-selection-but-fails-at-absolute-prediction-because-ordinal-ranking-works-while-cardinal-estimation-requires-calibration.md index e4125fb1e..4926f60e2 100644 --- a/domains/internet-finance/futarchy-excels-at-relative-selection-but-fails-at-absolute-prediction-because-ordinal-ranking-works-while-cardinal-estimation-requires-calibration.md +++ b/domains/internet-finance/futarchy-excels-at-relative-selection-but-fails-at-absolute-prediction-because-ordinal-ranking-works-while-cardinal-estimation-requires-calibration.md @@ -43,19 +43,19 @@ ORE's three-tier boost multiplier system (vanilla stake, critical pairs, extende ### Additional Evidence (extend) -*Source: [[2026-03-05-futardio-launch-blockrock]] | Added: 2026-03-16* +*Source: 2026-03-05-futardio-launch-blockrock | Added: 2026-03-16* BlockRock explicitly argues futarchy works better for liquid asset allocation than illiquid VC: 'Futarchy governance works by letting markets price competing outcomes, but private VC deals are difficult to price with asymmetric information, long timelines, and binary outcomes. Liquid asset allocation for risk-adjusted returns gives futarchy the pricing efficiency it requires.' This identifies information asymmetry and timeline as the boundary conditions where futarchy pricing breaks down. --- ### Additional Evidence (extend) -*Source: [[2026-03-21-blockworks-ranger-ico-outcome]] | Added: 2026-03-21* +*Source: 2026-03-21-blockworks-ranger-ico-outcome | Added: 2026-03-21* Ranger Finance case shows futarchy can succeed at ordinal selection (this project vs. others for fundraising) while failing at cardinal prediction (what will the token price be post-TGE given unlock schedules). The market selected Ranger successfully for ICO but didn't price in the 40% seed unlock creating 74-90% drawdown, suggesting the mechanism works for relative comparison but not for absolute outcome forecasting when structural features like vesting schedules matter. ### Additional Evidence (challenge) -*Source: [[2026-03-21-phemex-hurupay-ico-failure]] | Added: 2026-03-21* +*Source: 2026-03-21-phemex-hurupay-ico-failure | Added: 2026-03-21* Hurupay had $7.2M/month transaction volume and $500K+ monthly revenue but failed to raise $3M. The market rejection is interpretively ambiguous: either (A) correct valuation assessment (mechanism working) or (B) platform reputation contamination from prior Trove/Ranger failures (mechanism producing noise). Without controls, we cannot distinguish quality signal from sentiment contagion, revealing a fundamental limitation in interpreting futarchy selection outcomes. diff --git a/inbox/queue/2026-03-23-ranger-finance-metadao-liquidation-5m-usdc.md b/inbox/queue/2026-03-23-ranger-finance-metadao-liquidation-5m-usdc.md index 3dd4e1d17..2c132e030 100644 --- a/inbox/queue/2026-03-23-ranger-finance-metadao-liquidation-5m-usdc.md +++ b/inbox/queue/2026-03-23-ranger-finance-metadao-liquidation-5m-usdc.md @@ -52,10 +52,10 @@ The "Unruggable ICO" protection mechanism operated as designed for the misrepres **What I expected but didn't find:** Any detail about the conditional market volume on the Ranger LIQUIDATION proposal itself. The telegram source claims 97% support and $581K traded — if accurate, this would be the most decisive and highest-volume governance decision in MetaDAO history for a single-project matter. Need primary source verification. **KB connections:** -- [[Futarchy solves trustless joint ownership not just better decision-making]] — direct evidence update. Two liquidations with capital returned is the strongest empirical support to date. -- [[MetaDAO empirical results show smaller participants gaining influence through futarchy]] — minority RNGR holders successfully forced a liquidation against a team with information advantage +- Futarchy solves trustless joint ownership not just better decision-making — direct evidence update. Two liquidations with capital returned is the strongest empirical support to date. +- MetaDAO empirical results show smaller participants gaining influence through futarchy — minority RNGR holders successfully forced a liquidation against a team with information advantage - [[MetaDAOs futarchy implementation shows limited trading volume in uncontested decisions]] — if $581K traded, this was a contested decision (much higher than $58K average). Contested governance generates more market engagement — important scope qualifier. -- [[Futarchy is manipulation-resistant because attack attempts create profitable opportunities for defenders]] — the FairScale implicit put option problem is separable from the liquidation governance question. Liquidation works; early-stage quality filtering doesn't. +- Futarchy is manipulation-resistant because attack attempts create profitable opportunities for defenders — the FairScale implicit put option problem is separable from the liquidation governance question. Liquidation works; early-stage quality filtering doesn't. **Extraction hints:** - Claim candidate: "MetaDAO's futarchy governance has successfully executed capital return through two separate liquidation decisions, establishing a two-case empirical pattern for the trustless joint ownership mechanism" @@ -63,7 +63,7 @@ The "Unruggable ICO" protection mechanism operated as designed for the misrepres - Watch: Does the governance market volume spike on contested decisions (vs. $58K average on uncontested)? Ranger liquidation may provide the data point. ## Curator Notes -PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[Futarchy solves trustless joint ownership not just better decision-making]] +PRIMARY CONNECTION: Futarchy solves trustless joint ownership not just better decision-making WHY ARCHIVED: Second successful futarchy-governed capital return — key evidence for Belief #3 upgrade from "early directional" to "likely" EXTRACTION HINT: Focus on the two-case pattern and the scope distinction (governance enforcement vs. pre-launch due diligence). The misrepresentation pre-launch and the successful liquidation post-discovery are different mechanism functions.