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Teleo Agents 2026-03-16 15:39:09 +00:00
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domains/health/GLP-1 receptor agonists are the largest therapeutic category launch in pharmaceutical history but their chronic use model makes the net cost impact inflationary through 2035.md
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@ -49,7 +49,7 @@ The BALANCE Model directly addresses the chronic use inflation problem by requir
### Additional Evidence (challenge)
*Source: [[2025-01-01-select-cost-effectiveness-analysis-obesity-cvd]] | Added: 2026-03-16*
*Source: 2025-01-01-select-cost-effectiveness-analysis-obesity-cvd | Added: 2026-03-16*
At net prices with 48% rebates, semaglutide achieves $32,219/QALY ICER, making it highly cost-effective. The Trump Medicare deal at $245/month (82% discount) would push ICER below $30K/QALY. The inflationary claim may need scope qualification: GLP-1s are inflationary at list prices but potentially cost-saving at negotiated net prices, and the price trajectory is declining faster than the 2035 projection anticipated.

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domains/health/glp-1-multi-organ-protection-creates-compounding-value-across-kidney-cardiovascular-and-metabolic-endpoints.md
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@ -50,7 +50,7 @@ FLOW trial demonstrated 29% reduction in cardiovascular death (HR 0.71, 95% CI 0
### Additional Evidence (extend)
*Source: [[2025-01-01-select-cost-effectiveness-analysis-obesity-cvd]] | Added: 2026-03-16*
*Source: 2025-01-01-select-cost-effectiveness-analysis-obesity-cvd | Added: 2026-03-16*
Quantified lifetime savings per subject: $14,431 from avoided T2D, $2,074 from avoided CKD, $1,512 from avoided CV events. Diabetes prevention is the dominant economic driver, not cardiovascular protection, suggesting targeting should prioritize metabolic risk over CV risk.

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domains/health/the healthcare cost curve bends up through 2035 because new curative and screening capabilities create more treatable conditions faster than prices decline.md
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@ -33,7 +33,7 @@ The composition of spending shifts dramatically: less on chronic disease managem
### Additional Evidence (extend)
*Source: [[2026-02-23-cbo-medicare-trust-fund-2040-insolvency]] | Added: 2026-03-12 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5*
*Source: 2026-02-23-cbo-medicare-trust-fund-2040-insolvency | Added: 2026-03-12 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5*
(extend) The Medicare trust fund fiscal pressure adds a constraint layer to the cost curve dynamics. While new capabilities create upward cost pressure through expanded treatment populations, the trust fund exhaustion timeline (now 2040, accelerated from 2055 by tax policy changes) creates a hard fiscal boundary. The convergence of demographic pressure (working-age to 65+ ratio declining to 2.2:1 by 2055), MA overpayments ($1.2T/decade), and reduced tax revenues means automatic 8-10% benefit cuts starting 2040 unless structural reforms occur. This fiscal ceiling will force coverage and payment decisions in the 2030s independent of technology trajectories, potentially constraining the cost curve expansion that new capabilities would otherwise enable.