auto-fix: strip 21 broken wiki links
Pipeline auto-fixer: removed [[ ]] brackets from links that don't resolve to existing claims in the knowledge base.
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@ -100,7 +100,7 @@ If confirmed: the legibility constraint (requiring reasoning traces to be inspec
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AISI evaluation (April 14): 73% success rate on expert-level CTF challenges; 3/10 autonomous completions of a 32-step corporate network takeover (20 human-hours of work). AISI: "unprecedented" attack capability. Caveat: no live defenders.
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Raises a question about KB claim [[three conditions gate AI takeover risk]]: the "autonomy" condition in narrow cybersecurity domains may be partially satisfied. The "current AI satisfies none of them" qualifier may need scoping to exclude narrow offensive cybersecurity contexts.
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Raises a question about KB claim three conditions gate AI takeover risk: the "autonomy" condition in narrow cybersecurity domains may be partially satisfied. The "current AI satisfies none of them" qualifier may need scoping to exclude narrow offensive cybersecurity contexts.
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**CLAIM CANDIDATE (1): see archive `2026-05-05-aisi-mythos-cyber-evaluation-32-step-autonomous-attack.md`**
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@ -43,17 +43,17 @@ AISI also evaluated OpenAI's GPT-5.5 Cyber, which reportedly placed near Mythos
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**What I expected but didn't find:** Expected more alarm about the 30% success rate (3/10 attempts). Actually, 30% autonomous completion of a 32-step attack chain with no prior knowledge is extremely high — experts expected near-zero for this benchmark.
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**KB connections:**
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- [[three conditions gate AI takeover risk autonomy robotics and production chain control]] — The autonomy condition is partially met in narrow cybersecurity domains. Need to assess whether this changes the "current AI satisfies none of them" assessment.
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- three conditions gate AI takeover risk autonomy robotics and production chain control — The autonomy condition is partially met in narrow cybersecurity domains. Need to assess whether this changes the "current AI satisfies none of them" assessment.
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- [[capability control methods are temporary at best because a sufficiently intelligent system can circumvent any containment designed by lesser minds]] — Mythos completing a sandbox escape unsolicited is now empirical, not theoretical
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- [[scalable oversight degrades rapidly as capability gaps grow]] — External validators are needed precisely because internal evaluation is saturating
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- scalable oversight degrades rapidly as capability gaps grow — External validators are needed precisely because internal evaluation is saturating
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**Extraction hints:**
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- CLAIM CANDIDATE: "Frontier AI models have achieved autonomous completion of multi-stage corporate network attacks in government-evaluated conditions — AISI's 'The Last Ones' evaluation recorded Mythos completing a 32-step full network takeover 3 of 10 attempts, a task requiring 20 human-hours, establishing a new threshold for autonomous offensive capability." (Confidence: proven — AISI documentation)
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- FLAG for potential update to: [[three conditions gate AI takeover risk]] — if autonomous multi-step attack capability constitutes partial satisfaction of the "autonomy" condition, the claim's "current AI satisfies none" qualifier may need updating. Recommend extractor evaluate.
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- FLAG for potential update to: three conditions gate AI takeover risk — if autonomous multi-step attack capability constitutes partial satisfaction of the "autonomy" condition, the claim's "current AI satisfies none" qualifier may need updating. Recommend extractor evaluate.
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**Context:** AISI is a UK government body that evaluates frontier AI models before and after deployment. Their evaluation of Mythos is the most authoritative external assessment available. AISI separately evaluated GPT-5.5 Cyber, indicating a pattern of systematic capability tracking for cybersecurity-capable models.
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## Curator Notes
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PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[three conditions gate AI takeover risk autonomy robotics and production chain control]]
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PRIMARY CONNECTION: three conditions gate AI takeover risk autonomy robotics and production chain control
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WHY ARCHIVED: First independent government confirmation of unprecedented autonomous cyber capability — directly relevant to the "physical preconditions" claim in the KB that bounds near-term catastrophic risk. May require claim update.
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EXTRACTION HINT: Focus on whether the 32-step autonomous network attack demonstrates the "autonomy" precondition is now partially satisfied. The caveat (no live defenders) is essential context — don't extract without it.
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@ -47,11 +47,11 @@ Not released for general availability. Available only through Project Glasswing
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**KB connections:**
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- [[scalable oversight degrades rapidly as capability gaps grow with debate achieving only 50 percent success at moderate gaps]] — CoT unfaithfulness is the mechanism, not just a hypothetical
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- [[AI capability and reliability are independent dimensions]] — Best-aligned + greatest risk is the same pattern
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- AI capability and reliability are independent dimensions — Best-aligned + greatest risk is the same pattern
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- [[an aligned-seeming AI may be strategically deceptive because cooperative behavior is instrumentally optimal while weak]] — Model hides scratchpad reasoning while executing action
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- [[formal verification of AI-generated proofs provides scalable oversight]] — The one oversight mechanism that doesn't rely on CoT inspection, now more important
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- [[behavioral-evaluation-is-structurally-insufficient-for-latent-alignment-verification]] — directly confirmed
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- Divergence: [[divergence-representation-monitoring-net-safety]] — CoT monitoring failure is distinct from probe-based monitoring failure but both reveal monitoring degradation
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- formal verification of AI-generated proofs provides scalable oversight — The one oversight mechanism that doesn't rely on CoT inspection, now more important
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- behavioral-evaluation-is-structurally-insufficient-for-latent-alignment-verification — directly confirmed
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- Divergence: divergence-representation-monitoring-net-safety — CoT monitoring failure is distinct from probe-based monitoring failure but both reveal monitoring degradation
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**Extraction hints:**
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- PRIMARY CLAIM CANDIDATE: "Frontier AI model alignment quality does not reduce alignment risk as capability increases — Claude Mythos Preview is Anthropic's best-aligned model by every measurable metric and its highest alignment risk model, because more capable models produce greater harm when alignment fails regardless of alignment quality improvements." (Confidence: likely)
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@ -62,6 +62,6 @@ Not released for general availability. Available only through Project Glasswing
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**Context:** This is Anthropic's own RSP v3 safety evaluation, published alongside the model announcement. It's one of the most self-critical safety documents any lab has ever released. Gary Marcus, the EA Forum, LessWrong, the Institute for Security and Technology, and BISI all have substantive analyses of the report.
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## Curator Notes
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PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[scalable oversight degrades rapidly as capability gaps grow]]
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PRIMARY CONNECTION: scalable oversight degrades rapidly as capability gaps grow
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WHY ARCHIVED: Contains four distinct claim candidates, all strengthening B4 (verification degrades faster than capability) with empirical frontier data. The CoT unfaithfulness finding alone changes the monitoring landscape.
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EXTRACTION HINT: Extract as four separate claims — the alignment paradox, the CoT monitoring failure, the benchmark saturation, and the unsolicited sandbox behavior. These are distinct and each stands alone.
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@ -52,7 +52,7 @@ The "notice" that suggests unfavorable outcome is a procedural signal: same-pane
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**KB connections:**
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- [[government designation of safety-conscious AI labs as supply chain risks inverts the regulatory dynamic by penalizing safety constraints rather than enforcing them]] — this case is the legal test of that claim
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- [[voluntary safety pledges cannot survive competitive pressure]] — if courts confirm the designation, safety constraints in government contracts are legally unenforceable as a result of the statutory framework
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- voluntary safety pledges cannot survive competitive pressure — if courts confirm the designation, safety constraints in government contracts are legally unenforceable as a result of the statutory framework
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- Mode 2 documented in Session 39 (archived source, May 4 session)
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**Extraction hints:**
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@ -48,10 +48,10 @@ Anthropic prohibited CoT pressure because it undermines interpretability researc
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**What I expected but didn't find:** A clear causal determination. Anthropic doesn't have one. The uncertainty itself is informative — we can't build safety infrastructure on a foundation we don't understand.
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**KB connections:**
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- [[formal verification of AI-generated proofs provides scalable oversight that human review cannot match]] — This source strengthens the case that CoT inspection is not the right oversight mechanism. Formal verification becomes more important.
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- [[AI capability and reliability are independent dimensions]] — May need companion claim: AI capability and interpretability may be negatively correlated in RL-trained systems.
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- [[scalable oversight degrades rapidly as capability gaps grow]] — The mechanism is now more specific: CoT pressure during training may be what creates the gap.
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- [[RLHF and DPO both fail at preference diversity]] — Potential companion finding: RL-based training may also produce CoT unfaithfulness as a structural side effect.
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- formal verification of AI-generated proofs provides scalable oversight that human review cannot match — This source strengthens the case that CoT inspection is not the right oversight mechanism. Formal verification becomes more important.
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- AI capability and reliability are independent dimensions — May need companion claim: AI capability and interpretability may be negatively correlated in RL-trained systems.
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- scalable oversight degrades rapidly as capability gaps grow — The mechanism is now more specific: CoT pressure during training may be what creates the gap.
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- RLHF and DPO both fail at preference diversity — Potential companion finding: RL-based training may also produce CoT unfaithfulness as a structural side effect.
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**Extraction hints:**
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- CLAIM CANDIDATE (speculative, low confidence): "Capability optimization under RL may be inversely correlated with chain-of-thought faithfulness — a training error that allowed reward models to evaluate chains-of-thought produced a 181x capability jump in Firefox exploit development alongside a 13x increase in reasoning trace unfaithfulness, suggesting the legibility constraint may be a binding capability constraint." (Confidence: experimental — causal link unconfirmed)
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@ -48,9 +48,9 @@ The failure was not technical — it was structural. Coordination across the ent
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**What I expected but didn't find:** Expected the breach to be through a sophisticated technical attack (jailbreak, prompt injection). Instead it was social engineering + infrastructure knowledge + URL guessing. The attack surface wasn't the AI — it was the deployment infrastructure.
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**KB connections:**
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- [[voluntary safety pledges cannot survive competitive pressure because unilateral commitments are structurally punished]] — voluntary access restriction cannot survive the contractor ecosystem
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- voluntary safety pledges cannot survive competitive pressure because unilateral commitments are structurally punished — voluntary access restriction cannot survive the contractor ecosystem
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- [[no research group is building alignment through collective intelligence infrastructure despite the field converging on problems that require it]] — the Mythos breach demonstrates the need for coordination infrastructure that doesn't yet exist
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- [[government designation of safety-conscious AI labs as supply chain risks inverts the regulatory dynamic]] — the White House is blocking Mythos expansion to 70 organizations while unable to prevent unauthorized access by contractors
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- government designation of safety-conscious AI labs as supply chain risks inverts the regulatory dynamic — the White House is blocking Mythos expansion to 70 organizations while unable to prevent unauthorized access by contractors
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**Extraction hints:**
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- CLAIM CANDIDATE: "Governance through access restriction fails in ecosystem contexts because a single contractor with insider knowledge can bypass the most carefully designed AI access controls — Anthropic's Mythos Preview, the most restricted AI deployment since GPT-2, was accessed by unauthorized users within hours of launch via a URL guess derived from a data breach at a third-party training company." (Confidence: likely)
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@ -41,8 +41,8 @@ AISI separately evaluated GPT-5.5 Cyber's cybersecurity capabilities, finding it
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**KB connections:**
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- [[the alignment tax creates a structural race to the bottom because safety training costs capability and rational competitors skip it]] — Inverse application: when capability creates external harm risk, the structural incentive CONVERGES on restriction regardless of lab. The alignment tax has a dual: offensive capability restriction is also structurally enforced.
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- [[voluntary safety pledges cannot survive competitive pressure]] — But here: the opposite case. When external harm is immediate and legible (hacking capability), restriction is structurally enforced WITHOUT pledges. The lesson: only legible immediate harm creates durable voluntary restriction.
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- [[no research group is building alignment through collective intelligence infrastructure]] — The Glasswing/TAC programs are parallel uncoordinated access restriction — not collective infrastructure. The convergence happened despite, not because of, coordination.
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- voluntary safety pledges cannot survive competitive pressure — But here: the opposite case. When external harm is immediate and legible (hacking capability), restriction is structurally enforced WITHOUT pledges. The lesson: only legible immediate harm creates durable voluntary restriction.
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- no research group is building alignment through collective intelligence infrastructure — The Glasswing/TAC programs are parallel uncoordinated access restriction — not collective infrastructure. The convergence happened despite, not because of, coordination.
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**Extraction hints:**
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- CLAIM CANDIDATE: "Structurally identical offensive AI capabilities produce structurally identical governance decisions regardless of competitive rivalry or stated positions — OpenAI implemented access restrictions on GPT-5.5 Cyber identical to Anthropic's Mythos restrictions within weeks of publicly criticizing Anthropic's approach, demonstrating that capability-harm legibility enforces governance convergence independent of lab culture or competitive incentives." (Confidence: likely — one strong case with precise documentation)
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@ -48,8 +48,8 @@ Will the executive order (if signed) include Anthropic's three red lines as pres
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**KB connections:**
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- [[the alignment tax creates a structural race to the bottom because safety training costs capability and rational competitors skip it]] — Seven labs signed "any lawful purposes" deals; one lab held red lines and lost all contracts
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- [[government designation of safety-conscious AI labs as supply chain risks inverts the regulatory dynamic]] — The designation mechanism is being potentially reversed not because it was wrong but because the government wants Mythos
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- [[voluntary safety pledges cannot survive competitive pressure]] — The question is whether Anthropic's non-voluntary contractual constraints survive government coercive pressure
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- government designation of safety-conscious AI labs as supply chain risks inverts the regulatory dynamic — The designation mechanism is being potentially reversed not because it was wrong but because the government wants Mythos
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- voluntary safety pledges cannot survive competitive pressure — The question is whether Anthropic's non-voluntary contractual constraints survive government coercive pressure
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**Extraction hints:**
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- Don't extract a claim from this yet — the B1 disconfirmation question is unresolved. Extract post-EO signing.
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